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JoeWeber

Gas prices are crazy

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9 hours ago, airdvr said:

Spending the week in Palo Alto.  I have a hard time understanding how gas prices can be $3 more than at home in Ohio

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/19/1130026636/californias-gas-prices-top-6-a-gallon-in-october

Caught this on the commute to work this morning, while using about 4/10 of a gallon in the prius. I paid $5.89/gal two days ago in San Carlos, about 10 miles north of PA. It seems our gas is the cleanest, but we're a little like Texas with their power grid in that our gasoline market is sort of separate from the rest of the country, and therefore subject to more volatility. We may also be getting ripped off. We almost voted for even higher prices back in 2018.

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On 10/19/2022 at 11:37 AM, JoeWeber said:

Back to gas prices, Biden is now planning to release 15 Million Barrels from the reserve with more on offer this winter. The reserve will still have close to 400 Million barrels remaining so no big deal, except at the pumps. That's a good thing. It's anathema to many but I think it's past time to start releasing twice that a year while ramping up US production to both replace stocks and add more to US and our Allies markets. AGW is real but so are brick walls.

Wonder how much is actually required in the SPR to ensure national security?

I'm also wondering how many voters will actually be swayed by the potential decrease in gas prices by this move. If more than 400 is need for security then it will need to be refilled. Unless the US production is ramped up the cost to refill will be significant and put upward pressure on prices. 

The 2021 data shows that the US uses approximately 19.7 million barrels a day and produces 1 million less. There was a significant usage decrease, to 17.2, during the peak of COVID.

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On 10/19/2022 at 11:34 AM, JoeWeber said:

At least we are all in agreement about stealing their kids bikes. I'm starting to get a little wet eyed; you guys are the best.

Anything to save the environment. After all look what they are doing in New Zealand. Outright discrimination! New Zealand's plan to tax cow burps condemned by farmers Where will the steaks for the barbie come from?

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

Wonder how much is actually required in the SPR to ensure national security?

I'm also wondering how many voters will actually be swayed by the potential decrease in gas prices by this move. If more than 400 is need for security then it will need to be refilled. Unless the US production is ramped up the cost to refill will be significant and put upward pressure on prices. 

The 2021 data shows that the US uses approximately 19.7 million barrels a day and produces 1 million less. There was a significant usage decrease, to 17.2, during the peak of COVID.

I think it's time to recognize that we have no fuel security and fewer friends. Consequently, it's time to grab those oppressed and underpaid oil company CEO's by the collar and tell them to get after it or else.

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5 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

it's time to grab those oppressed and underpaid oil company CEO's by the collar and tell them to get after it or else.

Won't someone think of the poor oil company execs!  Struggling to put food on their families while rich, fatcat grad students in atmospheric science programs laugh all the way to the bank and light their cigars with $100 bills.

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16 hours ago, Slim King said:

L@@K... Gas prices have dropped an average of one cent per day since my vacation.  Still at $3.80 per gallon.

https://gasprices.aaa.com/

 I know, Its awesome!

Insane to think back to when I first got my driver's license about 15 years ago and had to pay $4.65 a gallon for a tank the would only last 4-7 days in my mid 90s jeep. I never would have guessed over a decade later I'd be saving so much.

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Back in the early 1970's before the energy crisis, I could buy gas for 33 cents a gallon.  I had a VW beetle that got 33 mpg so gas cost one cent per mile.  My girlfriend went to college 90 miles away so I could drive over to visit her and back for $ 1.80.  That was cheaper than a 3 minute phone call.

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45 minutes ago, Bigfalls said:

Back in the early 1970's before the energy crisis, I could buy gas for 33 cents a gallon.  I had a VW beetle that got 33 mpg so gas cost one cent per mile.  My girlfriend went to college 90 miles away so I could drive over to visit her and back for $ 1.80.  That was cheaper than a 3 minute phone call.

Hi Big,

And, I'm thinking a whole lot nicer.  :mask:

Jerry Baumchen

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Fossil fuels have allowed us to achieve a standard of living that was beyond that to which what royalty could aspire in the remarkably recent past.  They have also allowed the population to expand to previously unimaginable levels.

The fact that fossil fuels are finite seems to escape some people.  We will never completely run out of coal, petroleum and what have you, but we will reach a point where it will take much more time, energy and money to extract that last ton or barrel.

To those people who think producing oil is simply a matter of sticking a tube in the earth and sucking it out, I recommend studying up on the geology involved, as well as the technology involved.  I won't digress into that, but suffice it to say that it is not that simple.

The bottom line is that there are 8 some odd billion people on this planet, most of whom are dependent on fossil fuels for their way of life - if not for life itself.

When sufficient fuel is no longer available to power agricultural equipment, and synthetic fertilizers and pesticides go away, things will get interesting indeed.  At that point we might wish that 'climate change' was the worst of our problems.

I'm reminded of a line in an old movie where a woman, whose life has just been saved by Jimmy Stewart, asks "just what is a human life worth?!"

To which Stewart's character replies "whatever the market will bear, lady, whatever the market will bear."

Thus it is with petroleum.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

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(edited)
1 hour ago, winsor said:

Fossil fuels have allowed us to achieve a standard of living that was beyond that to which what royalty could aspire in the remarkably recent past.  They have also allowed the population to expand to previously unimaginable levels.

The fact that fossil fuels are finite seems to escape some people.  We will never completely run out of coal, petroleum and what have you, but we will reach a point where it will take much more time, energy and money to extract that last ton or barrel.

To those people who think producing oil is simply a matter of sticking a tube in the earth and sucking it out, I recommend studying up on the geology involved, as well as the technology involved.  I won't digress into that, but suffice it to say that it is not that simple.

The bottom line is that there are 8 some odd billion people on this planet, most of whom are dependent on fossil fuels for their way of life - if not for life itself.

When sufficient fuel is no longer available to power agricultural equipment, and synthetic fertilizers and pesticides go away, things will get interesting indeed.  At that point we might wish that 'climate change' was the worst of our problems.

I'm reminded of a line in an old movie where a woman, whose life has just been saved by Jimmy Stewart, asks "just what is a human life worth?!"

To which Stewart's character replies "whatever the market will bear, lady, whatever the market will bear."

Thus it is with petroleum.

 

BSBD,

Winsor

Hi Winsor,

I could not agree more.  This something I spend a fair amount of time thinking about; even though, it will not effect me.  My grandchildren will most likely experience the effects of your scenario.

For additional info, I have often suggested reading The Long Emergency:  The Long Emergency - Wikipedia

I do not agree completely with James Kunstler; but, I do agree with a lot of what he writes in his book.

I found it to be a very interesting book.

Jerry Baumchen

 

PS)  The toilet paper shortage of two yrs ago was just a hint of what is to come.

PPS)  And, I have often told people to just take a 360* look around you, no matter where you are at.  Just see what all comes from fossil fuels; just about everything.

 

Edited by JerryBaumchen

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52 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

PS)  The toilet paper shortage of two yrs ago was just a hint of what is to come.

The current shortage of integrated circuit chips strongly hints at how dependant our current lifestyle is on a stable world trade situation. The current geo-political climate strongly hints that stability is endangered.

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57 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The current shortage of integrated circuit chips strongly hints at how dependant our current lifestyle is on a stable world trade situation. The current geo-political climate strongly hints that stability is endangered.

Even if integrated circuit chips become more readily available or even larger I, for one, am sticking with toilet paper.

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1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

The current shortage of integrated circuit chips strongly hints at how dependant our current lifestyle is on a stable world trade situation. The current geo-political climate strongly hints that stability is endangered.

At least the current administration has taken a hint and is incentivizing domestic IC production. It’s an endeavor that’s gonna take billions of $$$ and several years to bear fruit, but there’s no time like the present to start. 
 

Not to suggest that this will solve all our problems, but at least it’s taking some steps to reduce reliability on Asia. 
 

One thing I don’t understand, wafer fabs are ridiculously water intensive but for some reason Arizona is a target for them

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2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

PS)  The toilet paper shortage of two yrs ago was just a hint of what is to come.

PPS)  And, I have often told people to just take a 360* look around you, no matter where you are at.  Just see what all comes from fossil fuels; just about everything.

 

Hi Jerry,

The toilet paper 'shortage' was simply a supply chain bottleneck due to panic buying. When everyone wants a bunch of something at the same time, there will not be enough.
Anyone who understands this basic concept has an adequate supply (a couple months worth) on hand at all times. 

The amount of stuff that requires fossil fuels for it's production (as in part of the material) is a lot more than most people realize.
However, EVERYTHING requires fossil fuels for it's production.
And EVERYTHING requires fossil fuels for transportation. Raw material extraction or production. Raw materials to production facility. Production facility to distribution centers, then on to retail stores. 

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19 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Hi Jerry,

The toilet paper 'shortage' was simply a supply chain bottleneck due to panic buying. When everyone wants a bunch of something at the same time, there will not be enough.
Anyone who understands this basic concept has an adequate supply (a couple months worth) on hand at all times. 

The amount of stuff that requires fossil fuels for it's production (as in part of the material) is a lot more than most people realize.
However, EVERYTHING requires fossil fuels for it's production.
And EVERYTHING requires fossil fuels for transportation. Raw material extraction or production. Raw materials to production facility. Production facility to distribution centers, then on to retail stores. 

I believe that Jerry (and Jerry, please correct me if I’m putting words in your mouth) was referring to how people reacted to the TP shortage and the levels of generosity that we may expect to be prevalent when oil comes into short supply. 

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6 minutes ago, lippy said:

I believe that Jerry (and Jerry, please correct me if I’m putting words in your mouth) was referring to how people reacted to the TP shortage and the levels of generosity that we may expect to be prevalent when oil comes into short supply. 

This. Something to consider in this whole dependence on oil thing is the relative impact of buying as much local produce and meat as possible. It's nearly impossible to buy things like local durable goods, that industry is just too global. But fewer blueberries from Chile in February, when done by a lot of people, wouldn't be bad. Plus it keeps money circulating in one's own area, also not bad.

Wendy P.

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2 hours ago, lippy said:

One thing I don’t understand, wafer fabs are ridiculously water intensive but for some reason Arizona is a target for them

Water availability for any commercial endeavor is the last thing that is considered.

There are catfish farms in Yuma, Arizona.  Catfish farms.  Someone thought that made sense.

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6 hours ago, billvon said:

Water availability for any commercial endeavor is the last thing that is considered.

There are catfish farms in Yuma, Arizona.  Catfish farms.  Someone thought that made sense.

That's because money.

Wendy P.

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17 hours ago, lippy said:

I believe that Jerry (and Jerry, please correct me if I’m putting words in your mouth) was referring to how people reacted to the TP shortage and the levels of generosity that we may expect to be prevalent when oil comes into short supply. 

Hi lippy,

100% correct.  I did say that this is a 'hint of what is to come.'

That is the essence of that sentence, just as you say, 'how people reacted to the TP shortage and the levels of generosity that we may expect to be prevalent when oil comes into short supply.'

Jerry Baumchen

 

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The gasoline price in Venezuela is even lower. Maybe we should be taking lessons from them, instead. There are 38 countries with lower gasoline prices than the US; most of them I wouldn't want to live in, and my willingness to live in other countries is very high as compared with most people.

Wendy P.

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