Hurricane Irene

[skymama 35]

I thought I'd start this thread so we can post and keep track of who might be in the path of Irene the next few days. Anyone buying hurricane supplies and getting ready to hunker down? Anyone evacuating? Anyone who lives along the coast need a place to stay to ride out the storm?

I hope we don't have any members visiting the Bahamas right now. My daughter's future in-laws live there, so I'm a little concerned for them this morning.

We're lucky here that it's going to miss FL. We expect some winds and rain tonight and tomorrow, but it shouldn't be too bad. I'm mostly worried about losing power because there are a lot of overhead lines and trees in our area.

She is Da Man, and you better not mess with Da Man,
because she will lay some keepdown on you faster than, well, really fast. ~Billvon

[AggieDave 6]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs3mj1E8LSU

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[Meso 38]

Oooh, finally a topic I can actually contribute on with knowledge.

I've been tracking Irene since she was a mere isobar on the GFS forecasting model about 2 weeks ago and she has kept me up all night over the past 3 days trying to understand her movement as there is no clear indication of where she is going yet (only a general one) - she was originally forecast by the models to pass over FL and into the GOM.


Anyway, as it stands now Irene has just gone through an EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) which lowered her intensity a bit while she was reorganizing her core. But pressures have fallen to around 950mb which should show some strengthening in the near future, pressures fall and the winds catch up to them. There's currently a Recon hurricane hunter plane doing missions and the latest report a few minutes ago was 117kt Flight level winds, which is a 85-90% reduction for surface winds from the height they are, so it still looks like a 100-105kt storm.

Looking at latest IR sat imagery her core is starting to improve and she will likely strengthen more as she clears out her new eye. She was a bit jagged over the past 4 hours but is looking increasingly good.

SST (sea surface temperatures) are high in her immediate path and she maintains great outflow. She will likely weaken a bit as she approaches the coast as dry air off the land and higher wind shear values will hamper efforts, SSTs also drop as it moves north (apart from the Gulf Stream).

As far as her path is concerned, me and the other trackers I know have been kept up because of the flip flopping of both the dynamic and global models. She was forecast to hit FL then it was Georgia, then SC then NC then it was a miss and a Canada landfall, now the models are back at NC outerbanks. And these models have far more data than usual so these are about as accurate as you will see them in this case.

The reason for the uncertainty is because of a shortwave trough which dips down moving east over the next few days, this second trough will decide the storms direction. If the storm is slightly slower the trough will be more east and a more east heading will happen, meanwhile if the trough is deeper it will cancel that, or if it's faster. The reliable models GFS, EURO, GFDL seem to be showing a NC brushing at the moment and then up towards Boston possibly, though this is subject to a lot of change especially due to the angle of approach.

Storm surge is likely to be the big factor along the east coast over the weekend.

You mentioned the Bahamas, I'm speaking to a person currently located in Nassau and they are saying that the eye is approaching them and they already have 10 second averages of hurricane strength. His kitchen window shutters were just ripped off 5 minutes ago and his fence blown down.

Don't pay attention to the media though, I've been watching it over the past few days and the media is completely overhyping it in some cases, and in some areas. When it was forecast to miss even the OBX, some channels were having their doomsday scenarios. Anyone in the path - the most reliable source is always http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

I've been tracking for 7 years now and this has been, thus far, the most difficult storm to predict in terms of path.

[Nutz 0]

Two of my sisters are in the Bahamas. They say the airport should be open tomorrow.

"Don't! Get! Eliminated!"

[skymama 35]

Wow! That's quite a report. I didn't know you had such mad skills!

So, tell me this: if I give you our coordinates, can you tell me if we need to store the lawn furniture and other loose items tonight? I'd hate to work up a sweat for no reason.

She is Da Man, and you better not mess with Da Man,
because she will lay some keepdown on you faster than, well, really fast. ~Billvon

[Meso 38]

Weather is what I do

If your profile location is up to date, you shouldn't have too much to worry about if it keeps on going as it's forecast to. You may see some squalls in the outer bands but winds will probably be around 30-40mph at most. Jupiter was getting 30mph earlier. But it should start moving slightly away from FL from now.

[DougH 270]

Awesome Meso. Very cool.... I loved my classes on meterology and climatology in College. But somehow I ended up stuck in this cubicle doing tax accounting.

Funny chit!

"The restraining order says you're only allowed to touch me in freefall"
=P

[wildcard451 0]

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Weather is what I do

If your profile location is up to date, you shouldn't have too much to worry about if it keeps on going as it's forecast to. You may see some squalls in the outer bands but winds will probably be around 30-40mph at most. Jupiter was getting 30mph earlier. But it should start moving slightly away from FL from now.

Geek.

[Meso 38]

That's why I got tattoos, duh. It means my geek factor can be 10x higher than average without appearing as a complete virgin.

[charlie5 0]

I just bought a poncho for hurricane parties at the DZ

The feather butts bounce off ya like raindrops hitting a battle-star when they come in too fast...kinda funny to watch. - airtwardo

[theonlyski 3]

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Weather is what I do

If your profile location is up to date, you shouldn't have too much to worry about if it keeps on going as it's forecast to. You may see some squalls in the outer bands but winds will probably be around 30-40mph at most. Jupiter was getting 30mph earlier. But it should start moving slightly away from FL from now.

An inter-planetary storm?!?!

"I may be a dirty pirate hooker...but I'm not about to go stand on the corner." iluvtofly
DPH -7, TDS 578, Muff 5153, SCR 14890
I'm an asshole, and I approve this message

[PhreeZone 15]

I've been watching the models change on http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-irene-2011 all week since I was due to be in FL and I'm amazed at how much the models are not tightening up on its projected path compared to just 48 hours ago.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[normiss 622]

No way a hurricane with an old lady name should miss Florida.
If it had it's left turn signal on for the past few days, I might get an idea where it was headed. (typically straight ahead)

[wayneflorida 0]

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I've been watching the models change on http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-irene-2011 all week since I was due to be in FL and I'm amazed at how much the models are not tightening up on its projected path compared to just 48 hours ago.

No sense in commiting themselves.

Actually this makes sense, all forcasters readjust the starting point but are using their own models/formulas to forcast track. The more days out
the forecast is, the difference between each forecast track will be.

[Meso 38]

It's also important to learn which models are good and which aren't, for example that link above has the BAM models in as well, and the BAMS for example is a shallow BAM model meant for weak systems, which Irene isn't, the BAMM is a medium depth system and the BAMD is the deep bam, they all perform weakly though. One could throw out all the BAM guidance for this system, rely on the ECMWF (euro), GFS, GFDL.

The models are a very good example of 'the butterfly effect', if you have merely 1mb too low of a pressure entered into the algorithm, it can dramatically change the path, more so as time goes on.

People always blame the weather guys on TV when they get something wrong, but people often don't realize that they're basing their forecasts off intense algorithmic models and a forecaster can only be as accurate as the models.

Back to Irene, some 30mph winds reported around FL. Evacuations starting up in the NE cities. She took in some more dry air today but the new eyewall started to clear too, so it's quite conflicting whether she's strengthening or not.

Regardless, she's really large and storm surge will be a big problem no matter how strong or weak she is from here and storm surge is almost always the main problem, wind related deaths are very rare.

[BillyVance 34]

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No way a hurricane with an old lady name should miss Florida.
If it had it's left turn signal on for the past few days, I might get an idea where it was headed. (typically straight ahead)

So you're saying Jeanne is an old lady name? There may be an Amazon hug in your near future.


As for people we know in the possible path of Irene, I can think of Beav (iambeav) and his wife Ashlee in eastern NC. You guys check in when its all over!

"Mediocre people don't like high achievers, and high achievers don't like mediocre people." - SIX TIME National Champion coach Nick Saban

[jrmrangers 0]

What do you think for the New York area Meso? We have a boogie this weekend at the ranch and im getting my rig so im looking forward to getting some jumping done

Wait , I pull what first?

[Rookie120 0]

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We have a boogie this weekend at the ranch and im getting my rig so im looking forward to getting some jumping done

I'm no weatherman but I wouldn't waste my time going to the DZ. Gonna be a washout.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[skymama 35]

Here's the report from Central FL right now with Irene 215 miles away from us: there are branches on trees that are swaying!

She is Da Man, and you better not mess with Da Man,
because she will lay some keepdown on you faster than, well, really fast. ~Billvon

[popsjumper 2]

...and from Atlanta:
There is a small cloud in the northeastern sky.
I think it's the exhaust from the local Waffle House, though.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[oldwomanc6 38]

Quote

Here's the report from Central FL right now with Irene 215 miles away from us: there are branches on trees that are swaying!

What you talkin' bout? Florida trees don't have branches, they have FRONDS

lisa
WSCR 594
FB 1023
CBDB 9

[theonlyski 3]

Quote

...and from Atlanta:
There is a small cloud in the northeastern sky.
I think it's the exhaust from the local Waffle House, though.

Sure it's not a safety meeting?

"I may be a dirty pirate hooker...but I'm not about to go stand on the corner." iluvtofly
DPH -7, TDS 578, Muff 5153, SCR 14890
I'm an asshole, and I approve this message

[Bertt 0]

An inter-planetary storm?!?!

Yes, Irene is gonna be rough on Uranus !!!

You don't have to outrun the bear.

[Meso 38]

Quote

What do you think for the New York area Meso? We have a boogie this weekend at the ranch and im getting my rig so im looking forward to getting some jumping done

To be honest, depending on how close it is to the ocean there may even be evacuations in that area.

You may well see NYC evacuations if Irene maintains her strength, the storm surge could be as high as 20 feet in areas now, so basically anything under 20 feet in elevation could be under water, assuming it hits in high tide, and will be restricted to some bays, elsewhere 7-12 feet seems possible.

Irene will likely only be approaching the NE coast on Sunday, but her size is huge and you may well be getting 4" rain in 6 hours on Sunday.

In short, there is a very good chance said boogie will not happen. And that may be the least of the problems for the NYC area hah.

EDIT: There was a few hours satellite blackout, but latest imagery is showing that Irene is encountering shear and is weakening. Can't yet tell if it's a trend or just a fluctuation.

[Divinfool 0]

It's Friday morning here (Central Fl) and the rain bands have been coming in intermittently. Gusts to around 20k....I expect late this evening will be our worst winds. Canaveral and Daytona are getting slammed with some juicy swells.
I'm hoping the winds will die by Sunday....I finished my Level 1 AFF ground school on Wednesday just in time for the stronger winds, so I could not jump....got plans to do my first jumps on Sunday morning at Deland.

Fear is the thief of dreams.....