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434

Who will win the 2020 election?

Trump or Biden?   

43 members have voted

This poll is closed to new votes
  1. 1. Who do you think will win the election 2020? Not who you want to win, but the one you think will win.

    • Trump
      17
    • Biden
      25
    • Election?
      1
  2. 2. Who do you want to win the election 2020

    • Trump
      11
    • Biden
      31
    • Election?
      1

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  • Poll closed on 11/03/2020 at 09:20 AM

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(edited)

Out of the thousands of different combinations of Electoral College results run by Nate Silver's website, out of each 100 scenarios...Trump wins 12 of them and Biden wins 88. 

What does this mean? Not a whole lot, but it DOES mean it is better to be Joe Biden on Tuesday, than Donald Trump. 

Biden's poll spread in a number of battleground states exceeds that of Hilary Clinton's in 2016. Any battleground state where the polls are running five or more points toward Biden is a very good sign that Biden will take that state. Four points is good, but not a certainty. Anything less than four and you are in Clinton territory and nothing is certain. 

One thing that *may* hurt Trump is especially prevalent in Pennsylvania, a state that did heavy early voting, as well as heavy mail-in voting. Trump spent so much time bad-mouthing mail-in voting that according to CNN...most of the mail-ins actually came from Democrats. This is because Republicans generally believed Trump. And we already know a majority of the early voting went Democrat as well. So...Trump's only chance to actually WIN Pennsylvania relies almost exclusively on a turnout on Election Day. 

And Trump DOES have a problem regarding mail in voting and he may wish he had not bad-mouthed it so much. Pennsylvania could just be an example. Here's an excerpt from the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's Office, from today:

Pennsylvania Early Voting Statistics

Last Report: 11/1/2020

Mail Ballot Requests by Party Registration

Party Count Percent
Democrats 1,946,877 62.8
Republicans 787,742 25.4
Minor 25,532 0.8
No Party Affiliation 337,590 10.9
TOTAL 3,097,741 100.0

Pennsylvania registered Democrats have a 1,159,135 ballot request lead over registered Republicans.

To make matters worse for Trump, a majority of those overwhelmingly Dem mail in votes have already been returned (both Dem and GOP) leaving the Dems with over a ONE MILLION VOTE head start...and three days after the election to get the remaining votes back in. Even if both sides returned every single vote, the Dems would still have an edge there of over a million votes. 

Now, it's true that perhaps the GOP could muster a huge Election Day turnout and somehow make up all those votes...but since 60% of registered voters in Pennsylvania identify as Democrat...and Trump was foolish enough to talk many Republicans OUT of using the mail in system...he could live to regret his remarks. 

When Pennsylvania lists party affiliation as 'No Party Affiliation,' most of the time these people have identified as independents....which is not currently a favorable group for Trump, either. Below is the number of ballots already returned, with their party affiliations. Also not good for Trump. 

Last Report: 11/1/2020
Source: Data provided by Pennsylvania Secretary of State’s office

Mail Ballots Returned: 2,404,354

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration

Party Returned Ballots Freq. Distribution Requested Ballots Return Rate
Democrats 1,591,048 66.2 1,946,877 81.7
Republicans 552,627 23.0 787,742 70.2
Minor 17,120 0.7 25,532 67.1
No Party Affiliation 243,559 10.1 337,590 72.1
TOTAL 2,404,354 100.0 3,097,741 77.6

 

Added Note:  Out of all those requested and returned ballots...only a mere 835 were rejected, meaning mail in voter 'fraud' as claimed by Trump is a load of bullshit. However...when the ballots are actually OPENED AND COUNTED, there will be some incorrectly done ballots. There always is. But usually this is far less than one percent of the actual ballots. 99%++ of people DO fill them out correctly. And in a majority of these cases it was simply because a voter forgot to sign their ballot. In that case, the election guys try to contact you using the information you provided when you registered, set aside your ballot, and give you a chance to come in and sign it before they reject it completely. 

Now if you have waded through this whole post, consider one more point:

When Trump bad-mouthed mail in voting, this same Pennsylvania scenario could be repeated in other battleground states that might ordinarily be close...but that Biden might actually take fairly easily because of all the people who TRUSTED mail-in or ballot request/drop off voting. In battleground states that are close...but where more voters actually identify as Democrats...turnout for the GOP would have to be in record numbers to overcome the mail-in deficits. If Democrats turn out in record numbers, as voters in general have so far...Trump is most likely doomed. Even if GOP voters suddenly show up in record numbers on Election Day...they still have a ton of ground to make up and a limited number of voters to do it. 

And if you think about it...Trump brought it on himself by telling lies about mail in voting. And practically everything else. 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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(edited)
1 hour ago, headoverheels said:

I think that there will be a huge turnout on Election Day, and a lot of Voters will be frustrated by the long lines and either decide not to vote  or not be able to vote.

The rules vary from state to state, but they don't just close the doors in *most* states if there are people waiting to vote. And this time it's different. People are frustrated, upset, and ANGRY. They WANT to vote, and have been in frankly stunning numbers so far. I don't think this will change on Election Day. But the difference in a couple of key states could be the fact that Biden jumped out to a big (and yes...UNCOUNTED so far) lead in mail in voting...because Trump told them their vote wouldn't be counted, or would end up on some Fantasy Fraud List, or whatever. The result of that was many GOP voters decided against mail in voting. This could come back to bite them on Election Day. 

As far as waiting for a long time to vote, I doubt many people in line would have the guts to just leave while everyone else is playing tough and standing in line. I think most of them WILL stay until they get to cast that vote. At this point, I think general turnout will exceed anything we've ever seen. 

Remember....since the early voting and the mail in voting has been historically heavy so far...the lines will probably be no worse or no better than any other election because so MANY people have already voted. CNN says it best:

Quote

'With just three days until Election Day, pre-election voting has now surpassed two-thirds of all ballots cast during the 2016 presidential election.

More than 91.6 million Americans have voted so far, as a majority of states are reporting record early voting turnout in the 2020 election. While it's too soon to know how that record turnout will translate to Election Day, the massive early voting numbers suggest a high level of enthusiasm for voting this year, despite the obstacles of a pandemic.

These votes represent about 43% of registered voters nationwide, according to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and Washington, DC. 
  
Sixteen states have already seen more than half of their registered voters cast ballots ahead of November 3.

Nationwide, the more than 91.6 million ballots already cast represent about 67% of the more than 136.5 million ballots cast in the 2016 presidential election. ..' 

 

 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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Stephen Miller has been busy planning a trump victory tomorrow. The polls are indicating a 10% chance of another trump presidential term. Imagine trump unrestrained with Barr by his side.

"President Donald Trump's senior adviser Stephen Miller has fleshed out plans to rev up Trump's restrictive immigration agenda if he wins re-election next week, offering a stark contrast to the platform of Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

In a 30-minute phone interview Thursday with NBC News, Miller outlined four major priorities: limiting asylum grants, punishing and outlawing "sanctuary cities," expanding the so-called travel ban with tougher screening for visa applicants and slapping new limits on work visas."

"a “very senior adviser to the president,” who was clearly implied to be Miller, said a second term agenda would be “shock and awe,” with a suite of executive orders “so extreme” a president seeking re-election otherwise couldn’t risk. “There’s a number of things they have been cautious about because of the legal and political risks in the first term,” Miller biographer Jean Guerrero told the Guardian this week. “I think that in a second term you would see Stephen Miller get much freer rein when it comes to his wishlist of items.”

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17 hours ago, RonD1120 said:

President Trump w/323 ECV

Ron, A Trump supporter dies and goes to the pearly gates…

There he sees St Peter and gets excited and walks towards the pearly gates.

St. Peter says, "I want you to know, on the whole you were a good person, that's why you're going in. But we almost had to send you to hell because you voted for Trump."

"What do you mean? Trump is the best president ever and a devout Christian!"

St. Peter snorts and says, "He's nothing of the sort. He's vain, greedy, an adulterer, racist, and corrupt. As soon as he dies we're sending him straight to hell."

The Trump supporter shakes his head, his eyes wide and mutters unhappily, "Oh my gosh. I didn't realize the deep state went this far!"
  • Like 4

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

Whatever the outcome is I hope it's at least an 8% win. An arbitrary number but that should be enough to stop the arguing about cheating. It's time to move on.

8% of what?

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2 hours ago, billeisele said:

Whatever the outcome is I hope it's at least an 8% win. An arbitrary number but that should be enough to stop the arguing about cheating. It's time to move on.

Bill,

Conceding for arguments sake that a Trump vote in 2016 was justifiable for any reason at all, I submit that as soon as his true self was on display post election it was then time to move on. The guy has taken a wrecking ball to our institutions, fomented racist violence, used the office for personal profit, destroyed critical international relationships, enabled authoritarians around the world and did it all while screwing off playing golf and tweeting insults like a school boy. He's been doing it all since the beginning to where this election should be no more than a procedural ouster with margins well above a hoped for 8%. So, no, people aren't going to just move on. I for one am pissed off. If Biden wins I want to see Trumps Presidency negated and I want the police and the National Guard to deal firmly with the militia idiots who seem all but certain to raise violent hell come Wednesday. Maybe then I'll want to move on.

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3 hours ago, billeisele said:

Whatever the outcome is I hope it's at least an 8% win. An arbitrary number but that should be enough to stop the arguing about cheating. It's time to move on.

In that case you are hoping for a Biden win. It’s perfectly obvious at this point that there is no way Trump can win the popular vote.

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In 2016 you guys foisted perhaps the most loved/hated female in politics.  You could have only done better with perhaps a Pelosi.  And you were surprised that she lost.

This time you put an old man who is nearing senility.  I think voting will be between Trump and a possible Harris Presidency with Pelosi as Vice.  I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

  • Like 1

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2 hours ago, airdvr said:

In 2016 you guys foisted perhaps the most loved/hated female in politics.  You could have only done better with perhaps a Pelosi.  And you were surprised that she lost.

This time you put an old man who is nearing senility.  I think voting will be between Trump and a possible Harris Presidency with Pelosi as Vice.  I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

You can couch your support for a white supremacist any way you like, but you are still supporting a white supremacist.

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21 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Let's have them. Which ones do you suggest show Biden is a white supremacist?

Retweeting a white power video!  Oh wait, that was Trump.
Calling white supremacists very fine people?  Dang, Trump too.
Telling the Proud Boys to "stand by?" Trump again.
Oh - I know!  He was sued by the government for keeping black people out of his properties!  That was . . . dang, Trump too.
Refused to condemn David Duke, who endorsed him?  Nope, Trump again.
Defends militia members who murder protesters?  Dang!  Trump again!
Telling a federal prosecutor "hey, you don’t want to live with them either?" "maybe hate is what we need if we’re going to get something done?"  "Black guys counting my money! I hate it?"  Not Biden again.  Damn.

Surely someone can find a slip of the tongue or something from Biden.  Just one?  Come on.

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(edited)
4 hours ago, airdvr said:

In 2016 you guys foisted perhaps the most loved/hated female in politics.  You could have only done better with perhaps a Pelosi.  And you were surprised that she lost.

This time you put an old man who is nearing senility.  I think voting will be between Trump and a possible Harris Presidency with Pelosi as Vice.  I wouldn't celebrate just yet.

I used to work with the mentally challenged. I don't see a single sign of senility in Joe Biden. Once in a while, you can tell he used to stutter as a kid. It never completely goes away, but it also doesn't mean you are in any stage of senility. 

Why would the Speaker of the House take on a VP role? It's not a promotion, but a comedown. This is why most US Senators, unless they REALLY want to serve the people, will decline that job. It comes with very little actual power, although you DO get to swear in any new director at NASA. B) Yes, it is true that there have been some US Senators who resigned that job to be VP, but even more of them were from all walks of life, all types of jobs. CIA director, a port commissioner, a Director of Coal, it's a big list. But in general, going from Speaker of the House or a US Senator to being a VP is looked upon as a sort of demotion. On the other side of that, for Kamala Harris it is definitely a PROMOTION, since there has never been a female who served as either a VP or US President. In her case, it's historic and would shatter the glass ceiling once and for all. 

Some people forget we've had Supreme Court justices who served effectively who were a lot older than Joe Biden. Now Biden isn't everyone's favorite candidate out of the Democratic party, but people look at him, see he's honest and gives it to you straight, while Trump just lies on a daily basis. However, every President has had their supporters. Even Nixon still had a 32% approval rating on the day he resigned from office. 

Jimmy Carter got voted out of office because he couldn't handle the economy and failed to get the hostages released from Iran. Trump's problems are WAY worse. For example, in the last eight months the pandemic he keeps saying is 'nothing' has already killed more than FOUR TIMES the number of US citizens than we lost in the entire TEN YEARS of the Vietnam War. 

In eight months...with no end in sight....you figure it out. 

Edited by RobertMBlevins

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The latest meme about Biden and racism is showing some testimony that he gave in a 1985 Senate hearing. He was quoting a memorandum that he had nothing to do with, in order to enter it into the record of whatever hearing.

From The Sun (that bastion of unbiased UK journalism)

Quote

In the video, Biden was reading a memo read by Reynold's staff - which said that white legislators allegedly used the N-word when creating a redistricting plan.

Wendy P.

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Hi folks,

Is this a trend:

'Nevada Judge Blocks Republican Lawsuit That Sought To Halt Mail-In Ballot Count'

'Federal Judge Dismisses Effort To Throw Out Drive-Through Votes In Houston'

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930467403/nevada-judge-blocks-republican-lawsuit-that-sought-to-halt-mail-in-ballot-count

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930365888/federal-judge-dismisses-effort-to-throw-out-drive-through-votes-in-houston

Jerry Baumchen

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