Green new deal equals magical thinking

[kallend 1,623]

7 minutes ago, airdvr said:

It's called capitalism.  Winners and losers. 

Losers - the people who die because for-profit health systems will never plan to have enough inventory for a pandemic, it's just not cost effective.

Losers - the people who die because of the persistent call for "small government" and for tax reduction means government can't afford to plan for it either.

[Phil1111 911]

5 minutes ago, airdvr said:

It's called capitalism.  Winners and losers.  The shale boom was supposed to revive the rust belt here in Ohio and for a while it did.  But in order for it to work well prices at the pump needed to be ~$4/gal.  I've watched the fate of Chesapeake for some time...constantly re-inventing itself.  The big winners were the land owners who were paid fantastic sums of money for the mineral rights.

I think the shale revolution has ground to a halt.

 

7 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Some will make it some won’t.  Look at what happened the last time the Saudis tried to kill shale oil.  It forced innovation and refinement culled out the weaker players and lead to the US becoming the world’s top oil producer.  Keep in mind that fracking is a relatively new technology and there is still room for innovation and virtually assures cheap oil for decades to come.

Just gota love it. Conservatives love, just love, subsidies. Be it from the government, investors, banks, whatever. Just keep trying to reinvent a loser. It like the banks that kept lending to trump. It took two decades but finally there was only one bank left Deutsche Bank. Now its only the Russian/Putin mafia and MBS.

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 hour ago, DJL said:

He's saying that shale oil can't compete during price drops and the shale oil industry could collapse.

Isn't that the goal of the Saudis and the Russians? They are not flooding the market just to give us cheap gasoline. You be sure of that.

[airdvr 197]

45 minutes ago, kallend said:

Losers - the people who die because for-profit health systems will never plan to have enough inventory for a pandemic, it's just not cost effective.

Losers - the people who die because of the persistent call for "small government" and for tax reduction means government can't afford to plan for it either.

We're talking about energy here John.  Please take your TDS to a different thread.

[Phil1111 911]

1 hour ago, DJL said:

He's saying that shale oil can't compete ....  Another issue is that the shale oil market exist on the back of a valuation that many investors, banks, bondholders are finding it to not meet.  This was an issue even before any price drops, i..e. when oil was over $55.  It is possible that the shale oil industry may not survive these fluctuations although I think we'll see a bailout.

additions mine.

28 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Isn't that the goal of the Saudis and the Russians? They are not flooding the market just to give us cheap gasoline. You be sure of that.

No, the Russians and Saudi's are going to goad trump into more bailouts. Because after a decade of pouring Benjamin Franklins down the dry hole of the shale industry. Only a "genius" would go where investors, bondholders and banks. Have learnt never to go near again.

Edited March 30, 2020 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 minute ago, Phil1111 said:

o, the Russians and Saudi's are going to goad trump into more bailouts. Because after a decade of pouring Benjamin Franklins down the dry hole of the shale industry. Only a "genius" would go where investors, bondholders and banks. Have learnt never to go near again.

Yes, as long as he can use money that is not his. SOP for him.

[wmw999 2,122]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

Yes, as long as he can use money that is not his. SOP for him.

Maybe the movie "Other People's Money" was sold to him as a documentary

Wendy P.

[kallend 1,623]

48 minutes ago, airdvr said:

We're talking about energy here John.  Please take your TDS to a different thread.

 Do facts  contradict your worldview?

[airdvr 197]

1 minute ago, kallend said:

 Do facts  contradict your worldview?

Not at all.  In fact I agree with your statements.  I'm just a bit tired of the TDS pollution in here.

[kallend 1,623]

52 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Not at all.  In fact I agree with your statements.  I'm just a bit tired of the TDS pollution in here.

Feel free to go elsewhere for it.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

The west Texas oil fields have been booming and bustling for more than a century.

Hi Brent,

Are you sure that should not be busting?

Former Texas Gov. John Connally went from boom to bust in those oil fields.

I remember one newspaper article where they had photos of he & his wife selling their paintings on the front lawn during their bankrupcy.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[billvon 2,400]

3 hours ago, airdvr said:

It's called capitalism.  Winners and losers.  The shale boom was supposed to revive the rust belt here in Ohio and for a while it did.  But in order for it to work well prices at the pump needed to be ~$4/gal.  I've watched the fate of Chesapeake for some time...constantly re-inventing itself.  The big winners were the land owners who were paid fantastic sums of money for the mineral rights.

I think the shale revolution has ground to a halt.

Oh, it will be back.  Oil prices will go up again, and we will always need oil for some things (plastics, aviation fuel.)  The problem is that for shale to be successful, as you mentioned, gas prices have to be high - and that will drive people to EV's as a cheaper alternative.  So they will be pricing themselves out of much of the market.

[brenthutch 383]

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

Are you sure that should not be busting?

Former Texas Gov. John Connally went from boom to bust in those oil fields.

I remember one newspaper article where they had photos of he & his wife selling their paintings on the front lawn during their bankrupcy.

Jerry Baumchen

 

Yes Jerry, 

Good catch.

[DJL 232]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Oh, it will be back.  Oil prices will go up again, and we will always need oil for some things (plastics, aviation fuel.)  The problem is that for shale to be successful, as you mentioned, gas prices have to be high - and that will drive people to EV's as a cheaper alternative.  So they will be pricing themselves out of much of the market.

There's no scenario that doesn't phase our most ICE vehicles.  It's just a matter of time.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

Oh, it will be back.  Oil prices will go up again, and we will always need oil for some things (plastics, aviation fuel.)  The problem is that for shale to be successful, as you mentioned, gas prices have to be high - and that will drive people to EV's as a cheaper alternative.  So they will be pricing themselves out of much of the market.

With a break even point at around $30 don't count on that happening anytime soon.  But as I have maintained for years that transition will be driven by simple economics.  When EVs become a cheaper alternative even I will buy one.

[brenthutch 383]

2 minutes ago, DJL said:

There's no scenario that doesn't phase our most ICE vehicles.  It's just a matter of time.

Yes, but decades not years.

[DJL 232]

5 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Yes, but decades not years.

I'd put it functionally at 5 decades max.

[brenthutch 383]

19 minutes ago, DJL said:

I'd put it functionally at 5 decades max.

That sounds about right.  We should have fusion figured out by then so we would have a plentiful supply of electricity and another half century of development should move EVs past the tipping point.

(still no Green New Deal though)

Edited March 30, 2020 by brenthutch

[Phil1111 911]

26 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

With a break even point at around $30 don't count on that happening anytime soon.  But as I have maintained for years that transition will be driven by simple economics.  When EVs become a cheaper alternative even I will buy one.

From two years ago University Michigan:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/14/electric-vehicles-cost-less-than-half-as-much-to-drive/#7db654183f97

Now US Gov.

Now from Motorweek

(still no Green New Deal though) Biden Suggests Dems Push for ‘Green New Deal’ Provisions in Next Coronavirus Stimulus Bill

 

[DJL 232]

22 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

From two years ago University Michigan:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/14/electric-vehicles-cost-less-than-half-as-much-to-drive/#7db654183f97

Now US Gov.

Now from Motorweek

(still no Green New Deal though) Biden Suggests Dems Push for ‘Green New Deal’ Provisions in Next Coronavirus Stimulus Bill

 

My next car will be either a Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf.  I can do this because I don't drive far and my GF has a car we can use for longer trips. My criteria is that it need to be able to get 100 miles on one charge.  It's simply way more economical than a car with an ICE engine.

[airdvr 197]

What about initial cost?  Are the EV prices getting down to a similar ICE vehicle?

[airdvr 197]

3 hours ago, kallend said:

Feel free to go elsewhere for it.

That;s the problem...I trip over your TDS in just about every thread here.

[DJL 232]

2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

What about initial cost?  Are the EV prices getting down to a similar ICE vehicle?

Brand new Nissan Leaf is $31k.  For used vehicles you just need to read up a bit about battery life and condition to evaluate their price but they're in the same range of a car with the same years/miles.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, DJL said:

My next car will be either a Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf.  I can do this because I don't drive far and my GF has a car we can use for longer trips. My criteria is that it need to be able to get 100 miles on one charge.  It's simply way more economical than a car with an ICE engine.

Not an option for me, I have a wife, two kids and a big dog.  Relatives all live > three hours away over mountain* roads. Nothing less than a seven passenger SUV will cut it.

*hills to you guys out west 

[turtlespeed 212]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

Not an option for me, I have a wife, two kids and a big dog.  Relatives all live > three hours away over mountain* roads. Nothing less than a seven passenger SUV will cut it.

*hills to you guys out west 

Social distancing - make it a habit.