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rushmc

There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998

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6 hours ago, billvon said:

And you know what?  I just checked - and the Sun is fusion powered!  His dreams will be answered by using solar-PV to extract energy from fusion.

 

You are right Bill!  But guess what, fossil fuels are just solar power in a more dense and convenient form.

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Some trump supporters here have suggested that companies can and should be allowed to monitor their own pollution. To trade and self account for pollution.

Sept. 2019 "President Trump announced last Thursday, August 29 that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will roll back another round of Obama-era emission regulations. The new EPA mandate would replace those initially introduced by President Obama requiring oil and gas companies to monitor and fix methane leaks from infrastructure equipment such as pipelines, storage facilities and wells."

Today "Oil and gas companies in the United States are hurtling toward bankruptcy at a pace not seen in years, driven under by a global price war and a pandemic that has slashed demand. And in the wake of this economic carnage is a potential environmental disaster — unprofitable wells that will be abandoned or left untended, even as they continue leaking planet-warming pollutants, and a costly bill for taxpayers to clean it all up....

The industry’s decline may be just beginning. Almost 250 oil and gas companies could file for bankruptcy protection by the end of next year, more than the previous five years combined, according to Rystad Energy, an analytics company. ...

Even before the current downturn, methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, was being released from production sites in America’s biggest oil field at more than twice the rate previously estimated, according to a recent study based on satellite data. Some experts say that with the industry in disarray, efforts to fix leaks of methane, which pound for pound can warm the planet more than 80 times as much as carbon dioxide over a 20-year period,..

The federal government estimates that there are already more than three million abandoned oil and gas wells across the United States, two million of which are unplugged, releasing the methane equivalent of the annual emissions from more than 1.5 million cars.

“They’re sitting there and they’re leaking. And they’re much leakier than a well that’s still in production and being monitored, although those leak, too,” said Robert Schuwerk, executive director for North America at Carbon Tracker. “And companies haven’t been setting aside the money, because they’d rather spend the money on drilling a new well.” As well as paying executives massive severance bonuses in the hundreds of millions of dollars.

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Just read the quotes, ignore the commentary.  I will help.
 

“Within a decade we can expect regular summer trade there {across the arctic ocean}.” — “Arctic Meltdown“, a NASA press release on 27 February 2001.

“By 2013, we will see a much smaller area in summertime than now; and certainly by about 2020, I can imagine that only one area will remain in summer.” — BBC, 13 May 2009.

“The entire ice cover is now on the point of collapse. …The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.”

 The Scotsman, 29 August 2012.

“I have been predicting [the collapse of sea ice in summer months] for many years. The main cause is simply global warming …This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates.” — The Guardian, 17 September 2012.

“{T}he planet is swiftly heading toward a largely ice-free Arctic in the warmer months, possibly as early as 2020.” — Yale Environment 360, 26 September 2016.

“Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice. Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. …Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss. …’Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,’ the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. ‘So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.'” — BBC, 12 December 2007.

is that better?

 

 

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13 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Some trump supporters here have suggested that companies can and should be allowed to monitor their own pollution. To trade and self account for pollution.

 

Exactly!  Like Trump did such a good job of monitoring for illegal racist housing policies within his properties.  And Enron did a fine job of saving people money - the invisible hand of the free market ensured that everyone got the cheapest possible power.  Need another example?  Chemical plants in the US are over-regulated disasters.  But when Union Carbide built their insecticide plant in Bhopal, India, they had the freedom to optimize both profits AND safety.  No nanny state there!

This will be another success story like those.

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The freshening of the sea water, at least in the North and South Atlantic oceans, is already happening. This part of climate change doesn't get a lot of attention, although it should. Scientists are still not sure on the extent of the problem, but one thing they DO know...is that if the famous Atlantic Current stops, the results on weather will be devastating. 

When you take a globe in your hands and look at the south of Spain and France, and over to the eastern seaboard of the USA, you see examples of fairly typical, mostly-mild weather. As far as the seaboard, we're talking from about New York state southward. 

Now, following that line of latitude around to the other side of the globe, you come to Sapporo, Japan...or at least the island of Hokkaido. Below is a picture which shows the typical yearly weather there. Pay attention to the average and record lows, and notice the highs are not that high. 75-80 F in summer is average. Record lows have gone to nearly twenty F below zero, right? Average low is around twenty degrees in winter. 

AtlanticCurrent.jpg.c139020bb2285c2815513fcf849db6a4.jpg

How can a place that is on roughly the same global latitude as Spain have such temperatures? The reason is because of the North Atlantic current. Each year, colder and heavier sea water from the North Atlantic flows SOUTH, at deeper depth from the surface. Lighter, warmer water from the south Atlantic comes up from the equator. This sort of circular system tends to make the weather more mild in Spain and along the USA's eastern seaboard. It's been going for millennia. 

However...in the last few decades the weather along the eastern seaboard has become more dynamic, with greater storms and greater temperature fluctuations, and these events have been spreading more northward all the time. (Superstorm Sandy was probably a good example.)

Some climatologists are now warning that this is due to the freshening of the sea water from Greenland and arctic ice melt. Basically, it's disturbing the delicate balance of the North Atlantic Current and causing problems. And if the current stops flowing as a result of the freshening, the weather in those areas will start looking more like the chart above. The result will be greater, and more frequent superstorms, and the rising of sea levels. Evidence of rising sea levels is a given. Some cities in Florida are already having to deal with it. 

So far it isn't catastrophic, but neither is it good. According to NOAA, average sea level rise since 1993 is about three inches, and going up about an eighth of an inch per year. But the rate of rise continues to increase. Climate change is sort of like a snowball rolling down a hill. The worse it gets, the FASTER it gets worse. 

 

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Not to double-post, but I think a short story is warranted here, since it has to do with another problem related to climate change. I won't say what problem, because that is part of the story. From the book, Escape Velocity - The Anthology. (Collection of 48 sci-fi stories from 44 different writers all over the globe.) Story was written originally in 2001. 

The Earth and the Lion

Robert M. Blevins

The old merchant ship cruised slowly into the bay, slicing through cold water as smooth as glass. Sharp peaks of black stone towered above the harbor like the walls of a prison. Tiny icebergs floated silently across the water, reflecting their rainbow colors in every spectrum.

A row of hills covered in thick grass was the sole buffer between snow-covered mountains and an old whaling station at the water’s edge. The abandoned station stood forlornly, a falling-down collection of rusty tin roofs and giant docks thrust into the bay like flat wooden fingers. Empty steel drums and discarded wooden beams were scattered everywhere.

The station was an interloper now. Nature would eventually reclaim it. The crumbling buildings stood quietly, an empty monument to a time of whaling ships and the harpoon gun.

A large fishing vessel was beached between two of the docks with its stern thrust onto the shore. It sat majestically with a slight list to port. The hull was rusted surprisingly little considering its age and looking at it, one could imagine giving it a push to send it back out to sea for another run. A few heavy lines hung limply down its side, nearly touching the ground.


Paul Morgan stood at the bow railing of the old merchant ship as it entered the bay. He was snapping pictures. He framed each shot carefully, ignoring the biting cold nipping his cheeks and nose. Morgan was an imposing man with a thick, black beard. He wore a heavy red parka and a wool hat. Moving the camera from side-to-side, Morgan tried to get a panorama of the entire scene. He finally lowered the camera.

It does look different from the last time.

The old merchant ship gradually slowed to a stop in the empty harbor. Morgan startled as the anchor chain crashed loudly into the water.

The First Officer waited impatiently, shivering in the bitter cold. “Dr. Morgan!”

“Yes?”

“The Captain is having the launch lowered for you, sir.”

Morgan snatched his rucksack and followed him to the boat deck.

A few minutes later, Morgan and two of the ship’s crewmen were powering toward the beach at a steady clip in the boat. Morgan sat alone in the bow, snapping his pictures. The water looked cold and deep.

“Ever been to South Georgia Island before, sir?” shouted out one of the sailors above the roar of the engine.

“Yes.”

“Scientist or something?”

“I can’t talk about it,” Morgan stared at the approaching shoreline. “Sorry.”

“You work for the British government, then?”

“That’s classified. I can’t discuss it.”

“Sorry, sir.” The boat hissed softly as it ran aground on the sand. “We’ll be back in one hour.”

Morgan shouldered his rucksack and jumped from the boat. He was careful not to get his feet wet in the freezing water. Waving a polite farewell to the sailors, he started walking up the beach toward the old whaling station. He noticed some algae muck just above the tide line and went over to examine it. It was brown and dead, with an acrid smell.

He pulled off a glove and scooped up a bit of the smelly mush. It was the texture of thick pea soup. Bad sign, he thought. He shook the residue from his hand, wiped the rest onto his pants and then slipped on his glove. He snapped a close-up picture of the algae and headed up the beach.

As he approached the station, he spotted a sign nailed to a post on one of the whaling docks. It was a royal crest of a reindeer standing above a penguin and a walrus, with a lion posed proudly in the center. It was the official symbol of South Georgia Island, issued by the Crown. There was a phrase in Latin on the sign.

LEO TERRAM PROPRIAM PROTEGAT

Morgan tried to remember what the Fisheries officer at King Edward Point had told him about the sign and its meaning.

King Edward Point, and the government station there, were empty now anyway.

He studied the sign again and finally remembered the translation:

Let The Lion Protect Its Own Land.

Morgan snapped a picture of the sign for his records and kept moving. He climbed a set of concrete stairs leading from the beach and into the village. As he passed the crumbling docks and warehouses, he saw a church with a magnificent spire standing tall above the other buildings. A small house next door had a sign hanging in a front window with the words, ‘South Georgia Museum.’ Both the church and the house were long abandoned now.

A hundred years ago, the Antarctic explorer Shackleton had finally found rescue at Grytviken whaling station.

Now it was filled with ghosts.

A cold shiver passed through him. Nothing here but death.

A biting wind gusted through the village. In the cold hills above the station, he saw the heavy grass wave in response. All of the grass was brown and quite dead, yet it stubbornly remained in place. He snapped a picture or two.

Morgan checked his watch. Twenty minutes gone already. Better get up the hill and over to the rookery. He stepped over discarded buckets and old beams and made his way to a trail head at the edge of the village. The path was worn and steep. There were no switchbacks. The old whalers had been a tough lot, preferring a more direct way of reaching their destination. The trail led over the hills and down to a small beach. Morgan’s legs began to burn as he struggled toward the top.

Stopping for a few moments, he plucked a handful of the dead grass. He studied it carefully before tucking the sample into a plastic bag.

He reached the summit and started down to the beach. Halfway there, he noticed the odor of rotting flesh. It grew stronger with each step.

Like thousands of silent black-and-white headstones, he saw penguins lying in neat rows along the barren beach. An icy hand snatched his heart and shoved it into his throat. He stopped again to capture some images of the overall scene. Tears flooded his eyes and he brushed them away angrily.

He switched the memory chip in the camera before continuing. The trail ended at the beach.

Most of the penguins had died with their eyes closed. Some were huddled in family groups. Others had washed up on the beach after a futile attempt to escape death. Rats scurried away at his approach, but he noticed some of the rats were dead as well. Their tiny bodies were scattered randomly among the penguin dead.

His camera clicked and dutifully recorded everything.

He selected one of the penguins at random and removed a small leather case from his pocket. Opening it with an expert flip, he took out a small scalpel. He sliced into the penguin’s flank and gently removed a piece of flesh from the dead animal. He dropped the sample into a plastic bag.

Another hard wave crashed into the rocks and drenched him in freezing salt water. He brushed the water from his parka and snapped a few more quick photographs. He checked his watch again.

Forty minutes. Time to leave.

He hiked back up the trail leading over the hill to the harbor. Along the way, he snapped a few last pictures, seeing only dead animals, brown grass, and an angry surf pounding against an inhospitable shore. Morgan slipped a cap over the lens.

For the first time in ten years’ of research, he realized he had nothing more to do. This was the end of his work. Twenty-five minutes later, he met the boat. The two sailors stared at him curiously, but said nothing. Morgan snapped a few more shots of the old whaling station as they headed out to sea, but these were only for his personal scrapbook.

The launch eased alongside the merchant ship and stopped. The deck crew tossed down the lines. The boat rose steadily from the water while the old davits creaked and groaned.

Dr Morgan scrambled out the moment they reached the railing. The crew secured the boat quickly, almost in a controlled panic. Morgan saw fear in their eyes. All of them disappeared below decks without a word as soon as they finished securing the boat.

The captain must have told them.

Morgan ducked into the nearest passageway and pounded his fist repeatedly against the steel bulkhead until the pain made him stop.

He already knew what he must say in his report to the Admiralty. The numbers were irrefutable.

It was going to reach Chile in less than two years. In five years, it would spread completely around the world.

There was no longer any doubt. As the hole in the ozone layer had grown larger, its edges had expanded at an exponential rate. Simple numbers, really. It was impossible to stop now.

South Georgia Island represented both the past - and the future.

The End

 

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Scientists are watching the Thwaites glacier more and more closely.  It has already accounted for 4% of the sea level rise throughout the world.  If it lets go completely it could raise world sea levels by 2 feet.  And that will tend to make other glaciers move more quickly as well; as the rising sea lifts them and lets water get under their ice/rock interface, the water will allow the now-floating glacier to accelerate its trip to the sea.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/thwaites-glacier-antarctic-melting-doomsday-climate-a9616966.html

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38 minutes ago, billvon said:

Scientists are watching the Thwaites glacier more and more closely.  It has already accounted for 4% of the sea level rise throughout the world.  If it lets go completely it could raise world sea levels by 2 feet.  And that will tend to make other glaciers move more quickly as well; as the rising sea lifts them and lets water get under their ice/rock interface, the water will allow the now-floating glacier to accelerate its trip to the sea.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/thwaites-glacier-antarctic-melting-doomsday-climate-a9616966.html

Yeah. And the British Antarctic Survey is not exactly a slouch organization. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Antarctic_Survey

They've been around for quite a while, and work with over 100 universities worldwide. 

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47 minutes ago, billvon said:

Scientists are watching the Thwaites glacier more and more closely.  It has already accounted for 4% of the sea level rise throughout the world.  If it lets go completely it could raise world sea levels by 2 feet.  And that will tend to make other glaciers move more quickly as well; as the rising sea lifts them and lets water get under their ice/rock interface, the water will allow the now-floating glacier to accelerate its trip to the sea.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/thwaites-glacier-antarctic-melting-doomsday-climate-a9616966.html

Something of a tipping point then?

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17 hours ago, DJL said:

What do you think is the scientific consensus on when these events will occur?

They were to have occurred already.  With regard to consensus....

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong”

A. Einstein 

Haven’t you wondered why climate apocalypse is always right around the corner, yet never seems to arrive?

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8 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Not to double-post, but I think a short story is warranted here, since it has to do with another problem related to climate change. I won't say what problem, because that is part of the story. From the book, Escape Velocity - The Anthology. (Collection of 48 sci-fi stories from 44 different writers all over the globe.) Story was written originally in 2001. 

The Earth and the Lion

Robert M. Blevins
 

 

Very appropriate, a work of fiction, just like catastrophic man made global warming. 

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(edited)
1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

They were to have occurred already.  With regard to consensus....

“No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong”

A. Einstein 

Haven’t you wondered why climate apocalypse is always right around the corner, yet never seems to arrive?

From the very sources you posted, many of those people were considered to be alarmists and even in their own words described what they were talking about as the early scenario.  We're not saying there were not alarmists and we're certainly not standing up for anything Al Gore said.  Example; scientist said "Glaciers could be gone by 2015, Al Gore says, "All glaciers will be gone by 2015", Brenthutch says, "See, the experts said all glaciers would be gone!", everyone else says, "Most glaciers around the world are shrinking at an historic rate and no, Brenthutch, your gotcha doesn't change that."

Edited by DJL

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3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I don’t see Al Gore in any of those quotes.  Are you saying that NASA scientists are alarmists?

We were talking about him earlier and he used some of those guys in his propaganda.  There certainly are alarmists within the "NASA scientists" , they aren't a monolithic entity, there are even "NASA scientist" deniers.  

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4 hours ago, DJL said:

We were talking about him earlier and he used some of those guys in his propaganda.  There certainly are alarmists within the "NASA scientists" , they aren't a monolithic entity, there are even "NASA scientist" deniers.  

So would you agree that the science is far from settled?

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(edited)
2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

So would you agree that the science is far from settled?

I agree that you're quoting people working in fields who spoke from a perspective of theory at a point at which there was little historical data to show what's really happening and using that to make a statement about "science."  It's no coincidence that your favorite go-toes are tornadoes, floods and glaciers.

Edit: I should give you credit that you're references Arctic sea ice but again, you're referencing people who pushed a narrative of things happening faster than what the remainder of the scientific community agrees with.

Edited by DJL

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5 hours ago, timski said:

Until death/famine/EXTREME weather reaches/effects these nay sayers, they will continue to go about there day to day lives, uncaring and oblivious to what is happening GLOBALLY.  Be the ant and not the grasshopper.    

And for many it will never reach them.  A rich guy in Denver?  He can pretend that nothing's changing for the rest of his life.

 

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