There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998

[wolfriverjoe 380]

3 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Hurricane season isn't quite over.

Pfft. Hurricane season hasn't fully ramped up yet.

August & September are the most active months.

[brenthutch 162]

22 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Hurricane season isn't quite over.

This just in.....there were exactly ZERO typhoons in the month of July.  First time since the 50’s.  So far 2020 hurricane season is a bust, but hang in there Joe there is always September 
Figure 1: Atlantic tropical storms lasting more than 2 days have not increased in number. Storms lasting less than two days have increased sharply, but this is likely due to better observations. 

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 478]

55 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

This just in.....there were exactly ZERO typhoons in the month of July.  First time since the 50’s.  So far 2020 hurricane season is a bust, but hang in there Joe there is always September 
Figure 1: Atlantic tropical storms lasting more than 2 days have not increased in number. Storms lasting less than two days have increased sharply, but this is likely due to better observations. 

 

 

Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction?

[wmw999 476]

Quote

Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction?

Silly question -- he won't know until the numbers are in.

Wendy P.

[brenthutch 162]

25 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction?

NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that.  

[JoeWeber 478]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that.  

Any other details, for example would a named Hurricane that dissipated at sea count?

[brenthutch 162]

12 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Any other details, for example would a named Hurricane that dissipated at sea count?

A hurricane is a hurricane.  Named storms and dollars of damage are meaningless metrics.  BTW what do you think of ZERO typhoons in July and the lack of a trend in Atlantic hurricanes?  It seems to run counter to the CAGW narrative.

[JoeWeber 478]

27 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

A hurricane is a hurricane.  Named storms and dollars of damage are meaningless metrics.  BTW what do you think of ZERO typhoons in July and the lack of a trend in Atlantic hurricanes?  It seems to run counter to the CAGW narrative.

Seems is the operative word. Warming seas increase the probability of Atlantic Hurricanes. That probability by NOAA, I think, was for a 60% chance of more hurricanes, a 30% chance of a normal season and a 10% chance of fewer hurricanes.  But other factors can offset or reduce the probability. For example, Saharan dust cover reflects the suns energy and temporarily reduces sea surface temperatures, thus reducing the probability of hurricane formation. Earlier this season, just as hurricane season was getting an early start, there was significant and thick SAL coverage in lower latitudes for a period of time. It happens but I'm not sure if it's predictable or included in the NOAA model. In any case it's not like NOAA predicted a 100% chance of more hurricanes. They know better, I'm thinking.

[brenthutch 162]

8 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Seems is the operative word. Warming seas increase the probability of Atlantic Hurricanes. That probability by NOAA, I think, was for a 60% chance of more hurricanes, a 30% chance of a normal season and a 10% chance of fewer hurricanes.  But other factors can offset or reduce the probability. For example, Saharan dust cover reflects the suns energy and temporarily reduces sea surface temperatures, thus reducing the probability of hurricane formation. Earlier this season, just as hurricane season was getting an early start, there was significant and thick SAL coverage in lower latitudes for a period of time. It happens but I'm not sure if it's predictable or included in the NOAA model. In any case it's not like NOAA predicted a 100% chance of more hurricanes. They know better, I'm thinking.

What about the lack of activity in the pacific?  Not to mention no discernible trend in Atlantic hurricanes since record keeping began.

Edited August 2, 2020 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 478]

13 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

What about the lack of activity in the pacific?  Not to mention no discernible trend in Atlantic hurricanes since record keeping began.

I'm not familiar with the factors, besides sea surface temperatures and bad luck, that determine the numbers and intensities of typhoons in the pacific. For the permanent record, I'm not claiming I know anymore that just a little about Atlantic hurricanes most of which was learned from dodging them.

[gowlerk 654]

2 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Just so I know how you will score the season, will it be decided by the number of named storms, the total intensity of all storms or the total dollar amount of destruction?

He will be deciding which data to cherry pick as the cherries ripen, as usual.

[brenthutch 162]

43 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

He will be deciding which data to cherry pick as the cherries ripen, as usual.

The # was picked by NOAA, not me.  

[JoeWeber 478]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The # was picked by NOAA, not me.  

And the probability number they picked was 60%, not 70, 80, 90 or 100%. It's climate, which is a little bit like roulette, not like making pancake batter for your kids where you know how many pancakes you'll get before the first ladle. That's why when you say 600, 700 or 800PPM Carbon is salubrious and a fine price to pay on the way to fusion power in 2060 eyes roll. The atmosphere is not a recipe. Predictions can falter and awful failure can easily follow success. Sort of like swooping as I think about it.

[brenthutch 162]

They DID predict a 90% chance of an average or above average hurricane season.

(the average is six hurricanes and three major hurricanes)

Edited August 2, 2020 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 478]

8 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

They DID predict a 90% chance of an average or above average hurricane season.

(the average is six hurricanes and three major hurricanes)

So I wrote previously. 60% + 30% = 90%

[brenthutch 162]

Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast

[CygnusX-1 14]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast

Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right?

On 8/2/2020 at 9:53 AM, brenthutch said:

NOAA predicted 6-10 Hurricanes with 3-6 major Hurricanes. We’ll go with that.  

 

[JerryBaumchen 300]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Updated prediction: ten hurricanes with five major ones

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast

Hi Brent,

Wasn't it just last week that you were crowing about how there were so few hurricanes that it was proof that global warming was a hoax?

You're as bad as Trump.  Well, in your favor, I doubt that you would say that we have 'beautiful hurricanes, the best hurricanes.'

Jerry Baumchen

[brenthutch 162]

9 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said:

Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right?

 

 

9 hours ago, CygnusX-1 said:

Too bad you already picked a minimum of 6 hurricanes with 3 major in post 2030. We hit that number and you will concede that climate change is happening, right?

 

No, I said we would go with NOAA’s prediction, and NOAA’s prediction changed.  I am just staying consistent.

[brenthutch 162]

7 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Brent,

Wasn't it just last week that you were crowing about how there were so few hurricanes that it was proof that global warming was a hoax?

You're as bad as Trump.  Well, in your favor, I doubt that you would say that we have 'beautiful hurricanes, the best hurricanes.'

Jerry Baumchen

It is ironic that on the same day NOAA increases their hurricane forecast, the Atlantic has ZERO disturbances with hurricane potential. (Obviously that can change going forward)

[brenthutch 162]

[kallend 441]

[wmw999 476]

I don’t see any increase in State College 

Wendy P. 

[JoeWeber 478]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

John,

If the graph isn't fake news, then the NOAA Logo is getting significantly colder over time. So what's your point?

[brenthutch 162]

11 hours ago, kallend said:

I’m glad you pointed this out.  CAGW theory says we should have more hurricanes as temperatures rise, and as NOAA has illustrated, we have both an increase in temperature and no trend in hurricanes.  According to scientific principle this would invalidate this portion of CAGW theory. Apply this sober analysis across the board and one is left with an irrational, blubbering puddle of emotion and not a rational theory.