Inflation explosion

[Westerly 61]

Just drove by a NorCal station. Premium was $7.39 a gallon. Just the cost of food increased 20% in the last few months. Rent is up 35% over one year.  Mind you this is coming from an already expensive cost of living as baseline. Who could have saw that coming…..(everyone

Edited November 2, 2021 by Westerly

[murps2000 86]

I sure didn’t see this coming.

[headoverheels 291]

Were you in Mendocino? If so, they are always way more expensive than other spots. Buy half a gallon and drive to Fort Bragg, and avoid overpaying by 60%. Gas there today was actually cheaper than at home in Silicon Valley. I haven't had the same experience with food inflation as you. I don't pay, receive, or follow rent, so have little idea about that, but the VRBO I am in right now does not have an inflated rate.

[billvon 2,400]

16 hours ago, Westerly said:

Just drove by a NorCal station. Premium was $7.39 a gallon.

Yeah, there's one station here in the middle of a business park that is always the highest gas prices in San Diego.  It's $5.99 there.  Most places in San Diego it's around $4.00.

In Gorda, CA (small town, not many options) someone found a pump that's charging $7.59 a gallon.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Interesting.

Back in 08 & 12, when gas prices spiked, oil was way up too.

IIRC, $100+/barrel oil produced $5+/gal gas.
Oil prices are nowhere near that right now.

And neither are gas prices, at least not where I see them.

Running from Green Bay WI (more or less) out to Boston & back, I see a the price in a lot of places. 
Last week, $3.25 or so was typical. Some places a bit higher, some a bit lower.
Locally, it's running in the $3.05 range. Some places $3.15, some as low as $2.95.

I'm going to guess that the super high prices in CA are from supply chain issues. Transportation is super tight right now. 
As with any service or commodity, scarcity makes prices rise.
If retailers have to pay a large premium to get the gas delivered, consumers will pay more for the gas (econ 101).

That's not inflation.
It's localized high prices due to shortages (not of the product, but of the delivery).

[jimjumper 25]

The 67 cent tax per gallon doesn't help either. If the CA Governor really wanted to do something useful he'd suspend the tax until stability returns. Especially since CA has more money than it knows what to do with right now.

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Interesting.

Back in 08 & 12, when gas prices spiked, oil was way up too.

IIRC, $100+/barrel oil produced $5+/gal gas.
Oil prices are nowhere near that right now.

And neither are gas prices, at least not where I see them.

Running from Green Bay WI (more or less) out to Boston & back, I see a the price in a lot of places. 
Last week, $3.25 or so was typical. Some places a bit higher, some a bit lower.
Locally, it's running in the $3.05 range. Some places $3.15, some as low as $2.95.

I'm going to guess that the super high prices in CA are from supply chain issues. Transportation is super tight right now. 
As with any service or commodity, scarcity makes prices rise.
If retailers have to pay a large premium to get the gas delivered, consumers will pay more for the gas (econ 101).

That's not inflation.
It's localized high prices due to shortages (not of the product, but of the delivery).

This is inflation 

https://www.npr.org/2021/11/03/1051478945/federal-reserve-inflation-jobs-employment

“Inflation is at a 30-year high.”

[murps2000 86]

I work in metal fabrication and we’ve noticed raw material prices beginning to drop. An article I saw in the Atlantic explains why some of this is occurring. It deals mostly with the environmental impacts of steel production but notes that the Biden administration and EU are ending tariffs.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2021/11/bidens-biggest-climate-deal-yet/620593/

I also noticed the price for rhodium, the most sought after metal in the lucrative catalytic converter trade, has dropped considerably since hitting a peak this past spring. Rockets and feathers.
 

[base698 1]

On 11/2/2021 at 4:47 PM, Westerly said:

Just drove by a NorCal station. Premium was $7.39 a gallon. Just the cost of food increased 20% in the last few months. Rent is up 35% over one year.  Mind you this is coming from an already expensive cost of living as baseline. Who could have saw that coming…..(everyone

> The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.

[Phil1111 911]

20 minutes ago, base698 said:

> The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.

What point are you trying to make here?

[base698 1]

2 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

What point are you trying to make here?

That when you saw that graph like I did in 2020 you should have dumped all your cash for Bitcoin, stock and real estate.

[Phil1111 911]

2 minutes ago, base698 said:

That when you saw that graph like I did in 2020 you should have dumped all your cash for Bitcoin, stock and real estate.

This may help you understand M1 and what it means.

This better explains the point that you're trying to make.

[base698 1]

47 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

This may help you understand M1 and what it means.

This better explains the point that you're trying to make.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1121416/quantitative-easing-fed-balance-sheet-coronavirus/

They ramped quantitative easing up dramatically.  It's not really the amount shown in M1 but think it roughly matches M2.

[TomAiello 25]

3 hours ago, base698 said:

That when you saw that graph like I did in 2020 you should have dumped all your cash for Bitcoin, stock and real estate.

Done. :)

Cash is pretty much trash at this point.  You have to use it for daily expenses, but it's a huge mistake to keep any more than necessary for everyday transactions.

[Westerly 61]

The best thing at this point is for the feds to jack up the prime rate. like way way up. then all those people taking out huge loans wont be able to do that anymore which will reduce purchasing power on big ticket items. it would also bring back those 4 and 5% APR money market accounts we once had. interest rates are way too low at the moment. they should be double or triple what they currently are.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

14 hours ago, Westerly said:

The best thing at this point is for the feds to jack up the prime rate.

Like what 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points? In one step?

Would love to hear how you think that would play out......

[billvon 2,400]

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

The best thing at this point is for the feds to jack up the prime rate. like way way up. 

Exactly!  That would be straightforward and simple, and would have no bad/unexpected side effects.  We should combine that with minting a trillion dollar coin to pay off some of the US debt, and also minting 330 million $1000 coins and mailing them to everyone.  It would stimulate the economy, we'd pay our debts, and everyone would be happy!

[gowlerk 1,912]

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

The best thing at this point is for the feds to jack up the prime rate. like way way up. then all those people taking out huge loans wont be able to do that anymore which will reduce purchasing power on big ticket items. it would also bring back those 4 and 5% APR money market accounts we once had. interest rates are way too low at the moment. they should be double or triple what they currently are.

Probably the very best thing that could be done is to put you in charge of everything. You always seem to have all the answers

[BIGUN 1,053]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

330 million $1000 coins and mailing them to everyone

Can I get that in a Starbuck's gift card, please. 

[DougH 270]

2 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Probably the very best thing that could be done is to put you in charge of everything. You always seem to have all the answers

Healthcare expert by day, central banker extraordinaire by night. We are in the presence of greatness.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

4 hours ago, DougH said:

Healthcare expert by day, central banker extraordinaire by night. We are in the presence of greatness.

I think you have a slightly different definition of 'greatness' than I do.

[brenthutch 383]

Inflation at a thirty year high 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/consumer-price-index-october.html

[DougH 270]

This period will be an interesting chapter in future economic and business text books. On the supply side you have constrained supply thanks to supply chain problems and other COVID impacts like labor imbalances and the initial industry shutdowns. On the demand side you have increased demand across many sectors thanks to both the direct stimulus measures that made consumers flush with cash and behavioral changes. Lots of different levers getting pushed and pulled in ways that are out of the norm.

[billvon 2,400]

22 minutes ago, DougH said:

This period will be an interesting chapter in future economic and business text books

Yeah, it's going to test the basis of a lot of economic theories.

[brenthutch 383]

9 minutes ago, billvon said:

Yeah, it's going to test the basis of a lot of economic theories.

Or confirm them