PSA - COVID-19 going into the fall/winter

[billvon 2,400]

Public service announcement - 

TL/DR: We are in very bad shape from a COVID-19 perspective going into the last two months of the year, and the death toll will be horrific this winter unless we make a massive effort starting now.

The approach the US took to containing the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, whether planned or not, was the "hammer and dance."  The hammer came first - a shutdown to keep the infection under control and get infection rates down significantly, so as to not overwhelm hospitals and to allow testing and contact tracing to manage the remaining infections.  The dance came after that - an adjustment up and down of NPI's (non-pharmaceutical interventions) to keep Re under 1 and therefore the infection rate low.  Ideally that would involve masking/distancing/tracing/testing rather than shutdowns, since shutdowns are economically damaging.

However lots of people are resistant to masking and distancing, as a quick perusal of Facebook or Instagram party scenes will demonstrate, so shutdowns have been required along with the less invasive NPI's.

Looking at our history so far, we saw one early peak before we implemented the first set of shutdowns.   We peaked at about 35K infections/day in early April, followed by a peak of 2800 deaths/day in late April.  (Deaths lag new infections.)  Then we reopened around June and infections started to rise again.  We saw peaks again in mid and late July for infections and deaths respectively.  We implemented shutdowns in many places again.  This was arguably a more important time to get the virus under control, because the natural protections that the summer provides in the northern hemisphere (lots of UV, lots of outdoor time, mostly natural ventilation) were about to expire.

But the second set of NPI's were a lot less effective than the first. Whether due to mitigation fatigue, political misdirection or conspiracy theories isn't really important.  We went from 70K down to about 35K before we weakened NPI's in September (and reopened some schools.)  Since then it's been growing.  Deaths are starting to climb again as well - from ~700 in mid-October to ~860 today.

We are now seeing records for new infections broken every day.  We've seen days with over 100,000 new cases in one day for the US.  South Dakota is seeing 113 new cases per 100,000, with some counties over 1200 cases per 100,000.  That means in that one county, if you are in a group of 10 people, you are almost certain to be with someone who is infectious.  To be sure, some states are doing better than that; 10 states are under 12/100,000.  But California (at 10.5 for example) is not going to be immune to what Nevada (28) is going through.

All this means that we're in a very bad place right now.  We needed to going into the fall with very low infection rates, so that the spikes we would see due to schools starting, people going inside for the fall and families getting together for Thanksgiving/Christmas would mean an increase from 5000 new cases a day to 25,000 cases a day, which we know we can handle.  Instead, we're going to see increases from 100,000 a day to 500,000 a day - with deaths following.  Because of what we've learned we might "only" see a few thousand deaths a day from that - but if we "only" see 2800 deaths a day (which was the peak back when we were seeing 30K infections per day) that's still half a million dead Americans by the springtime.

So we still have a little time to avoid that outcome, but we are rapidly running out of time.  Do whatever you can to reduce the spread of COVID-19 - because if we don't, we are going to face a disaster that makes the beginning of this year look tame.

[Westerly 61]

Great story, and I have the fullest level of confidence it will fall on death ears. None of what you wrote wasent already known months ago, but hey here we are anyway. Sometimes the hard way is the only way, but it sucks that other people have to die because of the lackadaisical attitude of some. I dont think we will get to 500k a day. maybe 200k at max. Eventually people are going to get scared and just stop going out. Call it a self-governed lockdown. Whatever happens, I have the fullest of confidence that we will be taking the hard lesson through the winter and when the spring dawns most Americans will personally know someone who died of Covid.

This is why we need to bypass the lengthily testing for vaccines and just call it good enough at this point. For every single day we spend screwing around with more testing of the vaccines we lose more people that otherwise would have been saved. The vaccines have already been proven effective. We know they work. At this point it's more about 'writing the specifications page' for them than it is about actually figuring out of they work. Even if only 20% of Americans took the vaccine, that would still translate to over a million fewer infections come spring.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Westerly

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Don't get your hopes up.

Whether it's 'mitigation fatigue' (I like that one), ignorance, science denial, a stupid belief that efforts to stop this are political (Trump supporters are a good example of that idiocy), the reality that some people cannot take all the precautions they would like, or whatever, we aren't going to get this under control.

Wisconsin has seen multiple days of over 5k new cases. Total cases since the beginning has topped 200k.
Hospitalizations are increasing drastically. There's a 'field hospital' at the big State Fair Park near Milwaukee. It's intended for those hospital patients that are well along the road to recovery and are due to be released soon. Initial reports are that it's a decent facility.

Deaths are increasing, although the one positive is that they aren't going up as much. Due to the experience in treating the disease, earlier hospitalizations and the fact that a lot of the new cases are in younger people, the death rate has dropped under 1%. 

 

But we're still in big trouble. 
 

The governor imposed a mask mandate, but the Republican 'leadership'*( - see below) is suing to get it lifted. 
Many R lawmakers in Madison are refusing to wear masks in the Capitol, despite both state & county level mandates. So, of course, there's a bunch of cases now showing up among the staffers. 

 

People are going to bars & restaurants like nothing is wrong. 
They're still trying to keep schools open. Near me, there's a recall campaign against several school board members who have been adamant about keeping the schools closed to in-person instruction.


Personally, I'm doing as little as possible. Not going anywhere I don't need to, and wearing a mask when in public. The local 182 DZ had the End-of-Season Pumpkin Drop event. It was a bit windy for my taste (not a lot of jumps this year, so my currency/comfort level with winds isn't where it would be) and it was also not warm, so I figured they would close up the hangar. FB pics showed that they did close the hangar and few people were wearing masks. 

 

* - I use the word 'leadership' for the R legislators very much tongue-in-cheek. Back in May, they sued to end the shutdown, complaining that they were left out of the decision process, and wanted a 'seat at the table'. After the R dominated State Supreme Court ruled in their favor, the 'seat' that they claimed they wanted stayed empty. They didn't even meet officially as the legislature (they haven't been 'in session in 6 months). They claimed that they wanted to allow local jurisdictions to decide what should be done...
After arguing in court that a 'patchwork' of county level mandates made it too confusing.

As far as the virus goes, they're a bunch of clowns. 

 

Edit to add:

Oh yeah, almost forgot. There was a recall campaign against the governor, because of the spring shutdown.
Despite claiming a week or so ago that they had enough signatures to force a recall vote (this would be a vote to decide if the governor should be recalled, if that passed, then there would be another election to choose between the current governor and a R opponent), they said a few days later that they really didn't. Not terribly surprising that the chief organizer has reportedly done prison time for fraud.

Edited November 2, 2020 by wolfriverjoe

[wmw999 2,121]

I have a younger relative who is suffering quite seriously from depression, in part exacerbated by the isolation. He’s finally been able to start looking for work again, and jobs are hard to find because of Covid. His friends are helpful, but they’re turning inward because of Covid, and no one is getting together much any more. 
He’s scared of getting sick, and given that he lives in a big city, it’s a reasonable fear. But this is so very hard for him, and it’s only likely to get worse. 
Wendy P. 

[yoink 321]

3 hours ago, Westerly said:

This is why we need to bypass the lengthily testing for vaccines and just call it good enough at this point. For every single day we spend screwing around with more testing of the vaccines we lose more people that otherwise would have been saved. The vaccines have already been proven effective. We know they work. At this point it's more about 'writing the specifications page' for them than it is about actually figuring out of they work. Even if only 20% of Americans took the vaccine, that would still translate to over a million fewer infections come spring.

You keep saying this. 

Do you understand that NO vaccine is ready for mass production now? And won't be for at least 8-10 months?

Yeah, there are small batches available for testing but to ramp up to the quantities needed to actually get a dose to you (assuming you want one) if you're in a non-vulnerable segment of society will take a YEAR. You do not get to say 'I want a vaccine' (unless you're the president, I guess).

I know this because I'm building a vaccine manifesting plant right now. 

Simply buying and getting the equipment made and delivered that is required for the manufacturing process is a 5-6 month lead time.

 

I suggest you come up with a new short term plan.

Edited November 2, 2020 by yoink

[yoink 321]

1 hour ago, wmw999 said:

I have a younger relative who is suffering quite seriously from depression, in part exacerbated by the isolation. He’s finally been able to start looking for work again, and jobs are hard to find because of Covid. His friends are helpful, but they’re turning inward because of Covid, and no one is getting together much any more. 
He’s scared of getting sick, and given that he lives in a big city, it’s a reasonable fear. But this is so very hard for him, and it’s only likely to get worse. 
Wendy P. 

The mental health cost of this pandemic will be immense. I called it as soon as businesses started closing - most people simply aren't adjusted to working in isolation. We're social animals. 

[ryoder 1,384]

23 minutes ago, yoink said:

The mental health cost of this pandemic will be immense. I called it as soon as businesses started closing - most people simply aren't adjusted to working in isolation. We're social animals. 

Fortunately for me, my misanthropy has finally become an asset.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, ryoder said:

Fortunately for me, my misanthropy has finally become an asset.

<DILBERT> "People, who don't need people, are the luckiest people...!"

[Guest]

I think there needs to be a balance between meeting the needs of individuals and the needs of not just society but of civilization itself.

After all, what good is another "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!" going to be when due to the huge interdependence of the different layers of our economic system, people in the major cities begin starving to death? Hell, some of them are already rioting and violent over perceived injustices (where looting="reparations"). What are they going to do when the food runs out?

Edited November 2, 2020 by Guest

[kallend 1,623]

6 hours ago, ryoder said:

Fortunately for me, my misanthropy has finally become an asset.

You too.

 

[olofscience 421]

1 hour ago, markharju said:

What are they going to do when the food runs out?

Food won't run out. Farmers keep working during lockdowns, and food production isn't really affected.

Approximately 2.3%* of the population can produce enough food for everyone.

But food distribution is - people won't have money for food because of the lockdowns. We don't want farmers to give the food away (or governments to pay them to do so) because we aren't socialists or communists, right?

 

*at least for the EU - source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Farmers_in_the_EU_-_statistics&oldid=357551

Edited November 2, 2020 by olofscience

[Guest]

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

Food won't run out. Farmers keep working during lockdowns, and food production isn't really affected.

Approximately 2.3%* of the population can produce enough food for everyone.

But food distribution is - people won't have money for food because of the lockdowns. We don't want farmers to give the food away (or governments to pay them to do so) because we aren't socialists or communists, right?

 

*at least for the EU - source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Farmers_in_the_EU_-_statistics&oldid=357551

You're overlooking lots of things: disruption of the supply chain can occur anywhere: Not enough labor due to illness/lockdowns, and crops will rot in the fields. No fuel for transportation, no logistics management because there's no tracking. No tracking because the Internet connections aren't working. No Internet connections because the last reliable long-haul fiber connection in Missouri got ruined when a tornado destroyed a power station (or some cowardly Antifa fairies blew it up). No power because there isn't anyone to fix it, along with active sabotage of other vital infrastructure such as bridges and roadways with the intention of further disrupting the logistics flow. I predict that this kind of domestic terrorism is coming next.

Of course the logisticians can go back to pencil and paper and horse-drawn carriages to move the goods, but that all takes time. And that's if they're not sick or dead from COVID-19. And farmers get the same thing in the EU (I live there) that they do in the US: subsidies.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Guest

[jakee 1,254]

43 minutes ago, markharju said:

No Internet connections because the last reliable long-haul fiber connection in Missouri got ruined when a tornado destroyed a power station (or some cowardly Antifa fairies blew it up). No power because there isn't anyone to fix it, along with active sabotage of other vital infrastructure such as bridges and roadways with the intention of further disrupting the logistics flow. I predict that this kind of domestic terrorism is coming next.

I wonder if you realise just how easy it is for the powers that be to control you. You’re just a sponge for propaganda.

[Phil1111 911]

3 hours ago, markharju said:

I think there needs to be a balance between meeting the needs of individuals and the needs of not just society but of civilization itself.

After all, what good is another "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!" . What are they going to do when the food runs out?

 

38 minutes ago, markharju said:

You're overlooking lots of things: disruption of the supply chain can occur anywhere: Not enough labor due to illness/lockdowns, and crops will rot in the fields..... And farmers get the same thing in the EU (I live there) that they do in the US: subsidies.

Full lockdowns doesn't mean food, fuel and other essential services. In China they had food delivery right to apartment doors. As long as truckers can supply TP they can supply beans and rice.

A week or so ago Faucchi stated that even with vaccines in 2021 the Covid situation won't return to normal till 2022. But his message was likely drowned out. Your two posts are inconsistent. Yesterday Australia had the first day for about five months without a single new infection. That occurred because they locked down entire cities.

2 minutes ago, jakee said:

I wonder if you realise just how easy it is for the powers that be to control you. You’re just a sponge for propaganda.

I think you mean nutjob websites, Fancy Bear, Stephen Miller , Facebook feeds, et al.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

 

Full lockdowns doesn't mean food, fuel and other essential services. In China they had food delivery right to apartment doors. As long as truckers can supply TP they can supply beans and rice.

A week or so ago Faucchi stated that even with vaccines in 2021 the Covid situation won't return to normal till 2022. But his message was likely drowned out. Your two posts are inconsistent. Yesterday Australia had the first day for about five months without a single new infection. That occurred because they locked down entire cities.

I think you mean nutjob websites, Fancy Bear, Stephen Miller , Facebook feeds, et al.

Faucci doesn't know - no one does. It's much too big and complex and is constantly shifting. I'm not a sponge for propaganda - I'm a realist and a cynic. I expect the worst, not the best from people. there's no question that the Antifa commies and others saw opportunities in this crisis and will continue to take advantage of them.

[kallend 1,623]

24 minutes ago, markharju said:

Faucci doesn't know - no one does. It's much too big and complex and is constantly shifting. I'm not a sponge for propaganda - I'm a realist and a cynic. I expect the worst, not the best from people. there's no question that the Antifa commies and others saw opportunities in this crisis and will continue to take advantage of them.

Given the choice of whom to believe between Fauci and Trump on infectious diseases, I know where my vote goes.

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, kallend said:

Given the choice of whom to believe between Fauci and Trump on infectious diseases, I know where my vote goes.

I'd actually pay more attention to that consensus I posted last week about all the scientists calling for an end to the lockdowns. Or better yet, the Robert Koch Institute here in Germany (https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html). They supply their information to the Kanzlerin.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Guest

[NewGuy2005 51]

10 hours ago, ryoder said:

Fortunately for me, my misanthropy has finally become an asset.

Me too.  I've been working from home and loving it for almost 15 years.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

4 hours ago, markharju said:

I think there needs to be a balance between meeting the needs of individuals and the needs of not just society but of civilization itself.

After all, what good is another "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!" going to be when due to the huge interdependence of the different layers of our economic system, people in the major cities begin starving to death? Hell, some of them are already rioting and violent over perceived injustices (where looting="reparations"). What are they going to do when the food runs out?

Bullshit. Pure & simple bullshit. (notice that I don't feel the need to use asterisks to pretend that I didn't say that).

Back during the previous "FULL LOCKDOWN" (which really wasn't), the only shortages we suffered were a result of idiots panic buying and cleaning off the shelves of certain things. Kinda funny how it was only one item at a time.

I drive truck, pulling a refrigerated trailer. Mostly food.
Last spring, I was initially worried that we would face supply chain issues. It didn't take long to realize that truck traffic hadn't dropped much, if at all. On the roads, at the shippers and consignees (the place the load goes to), in the truck stops & rest areas (parking can be tough to find in some places). 

The food processors were affected to a degree. Some were shut down for periods of time due to outbreaks. But there were never any real shortages of meat or anything else.

The one positive of the shutdown last spring was traffic. Since a lot fewer people were going to work, the normal heavy traffic in the major cities (I go through Chicago & Boston on a regular basis) was a lot lighter. It was both really cool and really strange to burn through downtown Chicago at 4 pm at full speed. 
The Chicago news radio station that gives the best traffic reports (WBBM) even suspended those during non-rush times. Normally they give a report every ten minutes. I guess they got tired of saying 'there's nothing going on out there'. 

I don't doubt that we'd see riots if food was really running out. But that didn't happen. 
Just protests over cops shooting unarmed black men. 

The "riots and violence" weren't those protesters. But you choose to ignore that part.

 

 

[JoeWeber 2,299]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Bullshit. Pure & simple bullshit. (notice that I don't feel the need to use asterisks to pretend that I didn't say that).

Back during the previous "FULL LOCKDOWN" (which really wasn't), the only shortages we suffered were a result of idiots panic buying and cleaning off the shelves of certain things. Kinda funny how it was only one item at a time.

I drive truck, pulling a refrigerated trailer. Mostly food.
Last spring, I was initially worried that we would face supply chain issues. It didn't take long to realize that truck traffic hadn't dropped much, if at all. On the roads, at the shippers and consignees (the place the load goes to), in the truck stops & rest areas (parking can be tough to find in some places). 

The food processors were affected to a degree. Some were shut down for periods of time due to outbreaks. But there were never any real shortages of meat or anything else.

The one positive of the shutdown last spring was traffic. Since a lot fewer people were going to work, the normal heavy traffic in the major cities (I go through Chicago & Boston on a regular basis) was a lot lighter. It was both really cool and really strange to burn through downtown Chicago at 4 pm at full speed. 
The Chicago news radio station that gives the best traffic reports (WBBM) even suspended those during non-rush times. Normally they give a report every ten minutes. I guess they got tired of saying 'there's nothing going on out there'. 

I don't doubt that we'd see riots if food was really running out. But that didn't happen. 
Just protests over cops shooting unarmed black men. 

The "riots and violence" weren't those protesters. But you choose to ignore that part.

 

 

Well then, that's about as first hand a report as we could hope to get. Thanks.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Just now, JoeWeber said:

Well then, that's about as first hand a report as we could hope to get. Thanks.

I've mentioned it a couple times.

So did Gowlerk. 

The supply chain is intact and functioning. 

Despite Ron's hopes and prayers, the "S" isn't going to "HTF" anytime soon due to food shortages.

[olofscience 421]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I've mentioned it a couple times.

So did Gowlerk. 

The supply chain is intact and functioning. 

Despite Ron's hopes and prayers, the "S" isn't going to "HTF" anytime soon due to food shortages.

Stop it, you're going to ruin markharju's fantasies of offing the antifa in the riots and civil unrest that follows.

I go around in very left-leaning circles, even some extreme leftist idiots, but I've never actually met an Antifa member.

According to markharju and turtle they should be everywhere, no?

[billvon 2,400]

7 hours ago, markharju said:

After all, what good is another "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!" going to be when due to the huge interdependence of the different layers of our economic system, people in the major cities begin starving to death? 

We had a "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!" in April.  No one starved to death.

Needless to say, masking/distancing/testing/tracing are much better options than a "FULL LOCKDOWN!!!"  But if people refuse to wear masks and distance, it's the one remaining tool we have.  Up to them.
 

Quote

disruption of the supply chain can occur anywhere

Yes, it can.  It didn't.

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

Stop it, you're going to ruin markharju's fantasies of offing the antifa in the riots and civil unrest that follows.

I go around in very left-leaning circles, even some extreme leftist idiots, but I've never actually met an Antifa member.

According to markharju and turtle they should be everywhere, no?

The supply chain seems to be doing fine just like Joe said. I’ll be delivering an urgently needed important load of peat moss to a greenhouse today. The only problem I see these days is an over supply of capacity because demand is down somewhat.

[billvon 2,400]

3 hours ago, markharju said:

 I'm not a sponge for propaganda - I'm a realist and a cynic

Followed by:

Quote

that consensus I posted last week about all the scientists calling for an end to the lockdowns.

Thanks for the Monday laugh!