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gowlerk

covid-19

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I wake up everyday and thank Cthulhu that Westerly primary occupation is posting nonsense on DZ.com, instead of something involving public health, medical research, or anything science based that goes beyond the level of a 5th grade baking soda volcano. 

The AstraZeneca news out of South Africa is definitely interesting, and concerning. It shows just how much complexity is involved. 

South Africa has halted their early phase rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine, but their decision is pretty nuanced. A trial of 2,000 individuals showed that it wasn't effective at reducing mild to moderate disease from the SA variant in younger individuals. I believe the trial participants were in their 30's.

I believe that it still reduced severe disease and death, and it is hard to extrapolate to the higher risk population.

Since the initial phase was going to health care workers, who are younger and lower risk, you really need to consider whether you give them a vaccine that shows poor protection of mild to moderate disease. There are limited doses, there are ethical constraints about giving someone a treatment shown to be ineffective for their primary risk, and then there the optics and social impacts of people getting a vaccine and then getting sick.

If they were at the stage of vaccinating seniors they may have made a different choice. 

 

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I have to admit the US is kicking Canada's ass in getting the vaccine into people. Our P.M. bought millions of doses of almost every vaccine variant. Canada was among the first countries to buy. But our idiot and chief must have told the pharma companies that polite Canadians like to wait at the end of the line. Canada 2.4% the US 12.3% and with that rate Canada should be fertile ground for the upcoming S. African/Canuck superspreader variant.

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(edited)
25 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

I have to admit the US is kicking Canada's ass in getting the vaccine into people. Our P.M. bought millions of doses of almost every vaccine variant. Canada was among the first countries to buy. But our idiot and chief must have told the pharma companies that polite Canadians like to wait at the end of the line. Canada 2.4% the US 12.3% and with that rate Canada should be fertile ground for the upcoming S. African/Canuck superspreader variant.

Specially concerning is that slowing the mutating of the virus into ever changing variants is really only possible by slowing the spread: vaccinations!

Edited by SkyDekker

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1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

I have to admit the US is kicking Canada's ass in getting the vaccine into people. Our P.M. bought millions of doses of almost every vaccine variant. Canada was among the first countries to buy. But our idiot and chief must have told the pharma companies that polite Canadians like to wait at the end of the line. Canada 2.4% the US 12.3% and with that rate Canada should be fertile ground for the upcoming S. African/Canuck superspreader variant.

UK at 18.1% right now.  BoJo finally doing something right?

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1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

But our idiot and chief must have told the pharma companies that polite Canadians like to wait at the end of the line.

Canada has no production of vaccines. It must depend on other nations to export it. The US will not be exporting any, and so we rely on EU willingness to do so. That could easily disappear at any moment. Why does Canada not have a domestic supply is the question.

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3 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Canada has no production of vaccines. It must depend on other nations to export it. The US will not be exporting any, and so we rely on EU willingness to do so. That could easily disappear at any moment. Why does Canada not have a domestic supply is the question.

The NRC is completing a production facility near Montreal(of course).

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced today a plan to produce millions of COVID-19 shots at a plant in Montreal starting later this year, securing a domestic supply of vaccines as the global market contends with delivery delays and protectionist measures.

The National Research Council-owned Royalmount facility will churn out tens of millions of doses of the product developed by Maryland-based Novavax, Trudeau said. That company submitted its vaccine to Health Canada for regulatory approval last Friday.

"This is a major step forward to get vaccines made in Canada, for Canadians.... We need as much domestic capacity for vaccine production as possible," Trudeau said. "We won't rest until every Canadian who wants a vaccine has received one."

The agreement will help jump start Canada's largely dormant domestic vaccine manufacturing industry but it will do little to meet the short-term demand for COVID-19 vaccines....The first Canadian-made Novavax vials won't be produced until the end of the year, '

The Sask Covid Vaccine is supposed to be done by the end of the year as well. Saskatoon lab CEO details human trials for Canadian COVID-19 vaccine that doesn't need 'complicated storage'

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7 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Canada has no production of vaccines. It must depend on other nations to export it. The US will not be exporting any, and so we rely on EU willingness to do so. That could easily disappear at any moment. Why does Canada not have a domestic supply is the question.

You aren't an actual country? Inquiring minds, you know. Maybe Canada ought to be throwing a lot more money at their military and health care R&D so that when pandemics happen they aren't standing in line for hand outs like Burundi. Harsh? Yes. You argue that our health care system is a joke, which it is, when your own has terrible defects. The reality is that like Scarlett O'hara, Canada relies heavily on the kindness of strangers. 

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8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Canada has no production of vaccines. It must depend on other nations to export it. The US will not be exporting any, and so we rely on EU willingness to do so. That could easily disappear at any moment. Why does Canada not have a domestic supply is the question.

Damn. Can't they convert one of their maple syrup plants?

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13 hours ago, Westerly said:

covid is on the downhill fast. I think the vaccinations will prevent another massive spike in the future as long as the variants are not immune.

As always, thank you Dr. for another of your insightful, well though out statements about COVID.

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Joe Biden promised Americans '100 million people vaccinated in my first 100 days'. 

That is approximately 28% of the current US population of 328 million people. 

He's been in office 23 days out of that 100 days. 

And these are the current results of that promise, as of yesterday:

Quote

'Since vaccine distribution began in the U.S. on Dec. 14, more than 46 million doses have been administered, reaching 10.5% of the total U.S. population, according to federal data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The U.S. is currently administering nearly 1.6 million shots a day....' (Source, NPR: HERE

At this rate, with about 77 days to go until Biden's promise timeline expires...times that 77 days with the 1.6 million doses being administered daily....that comes to 123 million additional doses to what has already been done. 

Add in the current 46 million doses ALREADY done, and that comes to 169 million doses into peoples' arms when that timeline ends. 

And that is a conservative estimate indeed, since as time goes on, they are getting better at both delivery and distribution. (getting the shots into peoples' arms). You should reasonably expect that within a month, MORE than 1.6 million doses daily will be going on. 

I would say Joe has a damn good chance of not only coming through on his promise to America, but exceeding it by a great deal. 

EDIT: 

Gowlerk says - 
 

Quote

"Canada has no production of vaccines. It must depend on other nations to export it. The US will not be exporting any, and so we rely on EU willingness to do so. That could easily disappear at any moment. Why does Canada not have a domestic supply is the question..."

Gowlerk: It doesn't matter. That's the answer. Canada has a total population of 37 million people. All they need are a total of about 75 million doses, and when they get them, it will be much easier for Canadian medical services to get them into peoples' arms...mainly because the population is much less than the USA. 

Most countries on Planet Earth do not have facilities for creating the vaccine. Those countries are in a vast minority. Most countries will have to import doses...and they will. The big problem in Canada is that the Canadian government hesitated to go to the US for doses because they thought Trump would stop the exports from the US-based companies. And knowing Trump...he probably would have done just that had he gotten the chance. The murderous SOB. If the Canadian government approached the US now, this would not happen. But they sort of got caught between doors there, and went to the EU instead of trusting Trump. 

Trump...the gift that keeps on giving...even if you don't want the gift. I fully support our neighbors to the north, the folks who stood out there in the cold for years protecting our northern borders since the early days of the Cold War, eh? DEW line and all that. 

I never met a cheesehead I didn't like, to paraphrase Will Rogers:handok:

 

Edited by RobertMBlevins
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9 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

If the Canadian government approached the US now, this would not happen. But they sort of got caught between doors there, and went to the EU instead of trusting Trump. 

Canada did not approach either the US nor the EU. Our government did make deals with Moderna and with Pfizer/BioNTech. Those companies are supplying us from their EU plants. We are getting doses mostly because like the US we agreed to buy them on a guaranteed basis pending approval before they were approved. The US is not permitting any export of these vaccines to anywhere in the world at this time. And I do not fault them for that. The pace of supply to Canada is now picking up as production bottleneck problems are getting solved.

There is now a Calgary based company preparing to test an mRNA vaccine. This could become important in the future if it turns out that vaccination against mutated varieties becomes needed yearly.

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13 hours ago, RobertMBlevins said:

Joe Biden promised Americans '100 million people vaccinated in my first 100 days'. 

That is approximately 28% of the current US population of 328 million people. 

He's been in office 23 days out of that 100 days. 

And these are the current results of that promise, as of yesterday:

At this rate, with about 77 days to go until Biden's promise timeline expires...times that 77 days with the 1.6 million doses being administered daily....that comes to 123 million additional doses to what has already been done. 

Add in the current 46 million doses ALREADY done, and that comes to 169 million doses into peoples' arms when that timeline ends. 

And that is a conservative estimate indeed, since as time goes on, they are getting better at both delivery and distribution. (getting the shots into peoples' arms). You should reasonably expect that within a month, MORE than 1.6 million doses daily will be going on. 

I would say Joe has a damn good chance of not only coming through on his promise to America, but exceeding it by a great deal. 

EDIT: 

Gowlerk says - 
 

Gowlerk: It doesn't matter. That's the answer. Canada has a total population of 37 million people. All they need are a total of about 75 million doses, and when they get them, it will be much easier for Canadian medical services to get them into peoples' arms...mainly because the population is much less than the USA. 

Most countries on Planet Earth do not have facilities for creating the vaccine. Those countries are in a vast minority. Most countries will have to import doses...and they will. The big problem in Canada is that the Canadian government hesitated to go to the US for doses because they thought Trump would stop the exports from the US-based companies. And knowing Trump...he probably would have done just that had he gotten the chance. The murderous SOB. If the Canadian government approached the US now, this would not happen. But they sort of got caught between doors there, and went to the EU instead of trusting Trump. 

Trump...the gift that keeps on giving...even if you don't want the gift. I fully support our neighbors to the north, the folks who stood out there in the cold for years protecting our northern borders since the early days of the Cold War, eh? DEW line and all that. 

I never met a cheesehead I didn't like, to paraphrase Will Rogers:handok:

 

Hi Robert,

Re:  I would say Joe has a damn good chance of not only coming through on his promise to America, but exceeding it by a great deal. 

He probably would get there faster if the state of Oregon was not a complete clusterf**k.  The governor has been one of the major problems, along with the Oregon Health Authority ( OHA).  The governor keeps moving the goalposts and changing the rules.  Then, the OHA decided to have people's medical providers give the shots.  Then they decided that only they, the OHA could do it right.  Change this, change that; reminds me of Abbot & Costello's Who's on First.

After, an almost inhuman effort by my extremely determined daughter, I am now scheduled for my 1st shot this Friday, the 19th.  Whew.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  For the duration of my thinking life, when I have considered the four levels of gov't:  City, County, State, Federal - The state of Oregon is by far & wide, the worst.  Well, at least they are consistent.  OK, off of my soap box.

 

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From the recent BBC news article about Canada and the vaccine:

Quote

 

'Why is Canada lagging behind?
Canada was criticised at the end of last year for buying up multiple times the supply it needs to cover its population.

It has signed deals with seven vaccine suppliers - Moderna and Pfizer, as well as ones with pending authorisation like AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson - for a total of over 400 million doses.

But it seems it wasn't positioned for priority delivery of the two authorised vaccines.

That's partly because the country decided to invest in vaccines from European factories, afraid that the US, under former president Donald Trump, would issue export bans...'

 

 

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(edited)
1 hour ago, RobertMBlevins said:

From the recent BBC news article about Canada and the vaccine:

 

Even the BBC gets things wrong. I have heard many stories from them and they evolve as more information becomes available to them. The BBC story makes it sound like Canada "invested in EU production". It did no such thing. It invested in the companies that make the vaccines. Where those companies ship the Canadian supply from is something that those companies have to navigate. 

 

1 hour ago, RobertMBlevins said:

But it seems it wasn't positioned for priority delivery of the two authorised vaccines.

We do seem to be getting some high level of priority, but not an exclusive one. We seem to be on a fairly even level with the EU nations. Considering the reality that our supply must come from plants located there it is hard to see how we could have done better. Except perhaps if we were able to get a plant located here. But I'm suspecting the lead time to do that would make it unfeasible.

Edited by gowlerk

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(edited)

Covid is never going away. This should not come as news though. I feel like this is a no shit moment. With the virus mutating and third world countries who quite likely will never have access to the vaccination, it is always going to have a way to mutate and keep on spreading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/doctors-warn-covid-will-become-endemic-and-people-need-to-learn-to-live-with-it.html

 

Edited by Westerly

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18 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Every other pandemic in history has gone away eventually. And so will this one. The only real question is how much damage it will do. 

True, but often times the disease didn't go away, it just became endemic. 

Smallpox, polio, measles, ect.

They stopped being 'pandemic' when enough adults had suffered and survived (or not) that many became 'childhood diseases'. Before vaccines became available, just about every kid went through mumps, measles, chicken pox, ect. 

Many did not survive.

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4 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Robert,

Re:  I would say Joe has a damn good chance of not only coming through on his promise to America, but exceeding it by a great deal. 

He probably would get there faster if the state of Oregon was not a complete clusterf**k.  The governor has been one of the major problems, along with the Oregon Health Authority ( OHA).  The governor keeps moving the goalposts and changing the rules.  Then, the OHA decided to have people's medical providers give the shots.  Then they decided that only they, the OHA could do it right.  Change this, change that; reminds me of Abbot & Costello's Who's on First.

After, an almost inhuman effort by my extremely determined daughter, I am now scheduled for my 1st shot this Friday, the 19th.  Whew.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  For the duration of my thinking life, when I have considered the four levels of gov't:  City, County, State, Federal - The state of Oregon is by far & wide, the worst.  Well, at least they are consistent.  OK, off of my soap box.

 

I kick myself in the ass for supporting Kate Brown. I could not have been more wrong about someone. She has completely failed the test and OHA and their failures are her responsibility. Same with OSHA who she put in charge of lockdown enforcement but gave them no authority. Were it not for our top shelf pinot's, outstanding micro brews and world class strip joints a guy might as well live in New Mexico.

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(edited)
4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Every other pandemic in history has gone away eventually. And so will this one. The only real question is how much damage it will do. 

If you read the link you'd see they are stating that it will just become endemic, which is what all of the other pandemics did after they were 'over'. Yes, the pandemic will end, but that doesn't mean the virus is gone. Look at other coronaviruses such as the cold. They have outlived any human on this planet.

The point of the article is that some 3rrd world countries wont even receive vaccinations until well into 2024 and ultimately Covid is going to continue to find people to infect which means it will keep mutating thus rendering it basically impossible to kill off.

Edited by Westerly

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