Looks like trickle down works after all

[brenthutch 383]

3 hours ago, kallend said:

It appears to have escaped your notice that the 2009 budget was Bush's last one, and that Obama was left with the task of getting us out of the Bush recession, the worst economic shambles since the 1930s.

 

Trump, OTOH, is running huge deficits at the same time as claiming that the economy is in wonderful shape.

Apples to apples, roll the numbers ahead one year and the results are the same, Obama had larger deficits during his first term.  You may wish to make excuses but we all know what they say about excuses. 

In no way does this constitute an endorsement of Trump's spending as if he were a democrat.  It is just a simple statement of fact. 

[billvon 2,400]

3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Ya gotta love how Trump is claiming the economy is doing so well, while at the same time calling for the Federal Reserve Board to cut interest rates...

 

By a full point.

For those who don't follow economics, a full point rate cut is a rather drastic action, only taken while the economy is in a pretty severe recession.

Keep in mind that Trump's only goal is to keep the economy stuttering along until November 2020.  After that, he doesn't really give a shit what happens; he will have made his money.

[kallend 1,623]

And now, the manufacturing index is down for the first time in 10 years:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracted-first-time-since-data-show/?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

13 hours ago, billvon said:

Keep in mind that Trump's only goal is to keep the economy stuttering along until November 2020.  After that, he doesn't really give a shit what happens; he will have made his money.

I don't think he really gives a shit what happens in the next 6 months, let alone the next year.

He's already made a ton of money. Off of the tax cuts. Off of the trips to his own resorts. Off of the Saudis (ya think there was a reason he cancelled the Iran deal?) Probably off of access to the government  (invest in my hotels or buy my kids stuff and I'll let you meet "X").

He is in the process of driving the country broke.
Next step is to declare bankruptcy (default on the debt).

He doesn't care. HE  will be fine. The 'little people'? Pfft. He just doesn't care.
The "Trumpettes" will be shocked. Amazed. Absolutely baffled that he 'hurt the wrong people. As usual.

[yoink 321]

1 hour ago, wolfriverjoe said:

He doesn't care. HE  will be fine. The 'little people'? Pfft. He just doesn't care.
The "Trumpettes" will be shocked. Amazed. Absolutely baffled that he 'hurt the wrong people. As usual.

They won'b be baffled. They'll refuse to see it as an issue or they'll blame the Democrats.

 

It can't ever possibly be anything to do with the guy they elected. Far easier to deny it or blame it on someone else rather than take responsibility.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 minutes ago, yoink said:

They won't be baffled. They'll refuse to see it as an issue or they'll blame the Democrats.

 

It can't ever possibly be anything to do with the guy they elected. Far easier to deny it or blame it on someone else rather than take responsibility.

Good point.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, yoink said:

They won'b be baffled. They'll refuse to see it as an issue or they'll blame the Democrats.

 

It can't ever possibly be anything to do with the guy they elected. Far easier to deny it or blame it on someone else rather than take responsibility.

That is EXACTLY what Trump does.

[SkyDekker 1,123]

3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

I don't think he really gives a shit what happens in the next 6 months, let alone the next year.

He's already made a ton of money. Off of the tax cuts. Off of the trips to his own resorts. Off of the Saudis (ya think there was a reason he cancelled the Iran deal?) Probably off of access to the government  (invest in my hotels or buy my kids stuff and I'll let you meet "X").

He is in the process of driving the country broke.
Next step is to declare bankruptcy (default on the debt).

He doesn't care. HE  will be fine. The 'little people'? Pfft. He just doesn't care.
The "Trumpettes" will be shocked. Amazed. Absolutely baffled that he 'hurt the wrong people. As usual.

I further find it hard to believe that his tweets aren't just blatant stock manipulation on a massive scale.

[ryoder 1,384]

19 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I further find it hard to believe that his tweets aren't just blatant stock manipulation on a massive scale.

That would imply he has a grasp of cause and effect.

I've seen no such evidence.

[yoink 321]

9 hours ago, ryoder said:

That would imply he has a grasp of cause and effect.

I've seen no such evidence.

Or an an actual real understanding  of economics.

[SkyDekker 1,123]

Adjustment to employment numbers. Job growth was better under Obama.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/08/21/jobs-u-s-employment-501-000-lower-than-believed-after-revisions/2076069001/

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

On 8/23/2019 at 11:32 AM, SkyDekker said:

I further find it hard to believe that his tweets aren't just blatant stock manipulation on a massive scale.

 

On 8/23/2019 at 11:52 AM, ryoder said:

That would imply he has a grasp of cause and effect.

I've seen no such evidence.

 

On 8/23/2019 at 8:56 PM, yoink said:

Or an an actual real understanding  of economics.

Given the huge swings in the market since Friday (when he said he was going to make all US businesses pull out of China) to today (when he said that the Chinese delegation had called the US delegation to resume talks*), I have to wonder if one of his "Wall St Buddies" that has his phone number isn't using the power of the WH to manipulate the markets. 

It's been pretty clearly shown that Trump can be manipulated fairly easily. It's not too far fetched to think that someone who has access and a thorough understanding of the market and economics is taking advantage of Trump's foolishness.

[ryoder 1,384]

2 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

It's been pretty clearly shown that Trump can be manipulated fairly easily. It's not too far fetched to think that someone who has access and a thorough understanding of the market and economics is taking advantage of Trump's foolishness.

I'll buy that.

Like I've said before, the Whitehouse Halfwit cares about only 4 things:

1) His ego, 2) His stomach, 3) His money, 4) His crotch.

But he surrounds himself with enablers that manipulate him to do what they want.

I not not be at all surprised to learn that every bit of his anti-immigrant idiocy is driven 100% by Stephen "Goebbels" Miller, promising: "Do this and say that, and your base with love you!"

Considering that Miller is still around after so many other swamp critters are gone, I can only conclude that Miller must give ego stroking!

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

On 8/26/2019 at 3:46 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

 

 

Given the huge swings in the market since Friday (when he said he was going to make all US businesses pull out of China) to today (when he said that the Chinese delegation had called the US delegation to resume talks*), I have to wonder if one of his "Wall St Buddies" that has his phone number isn't using the power of the WH to manipulate the markets. 

It's been pretty clearly shown that Trump can be manipulated fairly easily. It's not too far fetched to think that someone who has access and a thorough understanding of the market and economics is taking advantage of Trump's foolishness.

 

On 8/26/2019 at 6:11 PM, ryoder said:

I'll buy that.

Like I've said before, the Whitehouse Halfwit cares about only 4 things:

1) His ego, 2) His stomach, 3) His money, 4) His crotch.

But he surrounds himself with enablers that manipulate him to do what they want.

I not not be at all surprised to learn that every bit of his anti-immigrant idiocy is driven 100% by Stephen "Goebbels" Miller, promising: "Do this and say that, and your base with love you!"

Considering that Miller is still around after so many other swamp critters are gone, I can only conclude that Miller must give ego stroking!

It looks like other folks have noticed that Trump's idiotic tweets are having an effect on the market.

JP Morgan Chase has started the "Volfefe Index", which tracks the effect that the Mango Mussolini's posts have on the market.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/investing/jpmorgan-trump-tweets-volfefe-index/index.html

[richravizza 25]

On 7/8/2019 at 8:32 AM, SkyDekker said:

You might think so, but that index has predicted every recession since the 60s.

Its October BOOO ! it's always a scary time of the year!!!Gretas got her costume,she'll have a bag in one hand,and a bottle(to throw at your head)in the other..

On 8/15/2019 at 1:58 AM, kallend said:

The R word.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/14/stocks-tank-another-recession-warning-surfaces/

The U.S. stock market tumbled to its worst day of the year on Wednesday, after a reliable predictor of looming recessions flashed for the first time since the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 800 points, or about 3 percent, and has lost close to 7 percent over the past three weeks.

Two of the world’s largest economies, Germany and the United Kingdom, appear to be contracting even as the latter forges ahead with plans to leave the European Union. Growth also has slowed in China, which is in a bitter trade feud with the United States. Meanwhile, Argentina’s stock market fell nearly 50 percent earlier this week after its incumbent president was defeated by a left-wing opponent.

 Whether the events presage an economic calamity or just an alarming spasm are unclear. But unlike during the Great Recession, global leaders are not working in unison to confront mounting problems and arrest the slowdown. Instead, they are increasingly at one another’s throats.

And President Trump has responded by both claiming the economy is still thriving while dramatically ramping up his attacks on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, seeking to deflect blame.

Wednesday’s sharp sell-off was caused by an unusual development in the bond market, called an “inverted yield curve,” that often foreshadows a recession.

For the first time since the run-up to the Great Recession, the yields — or returns — on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. Normally, the government needs to pay out higher rates to attract investors for its long-term bonds. But with so many losing confidence in the near-term prospects of the economy and rushing to buy longer-term bonds, the U.S. government now is paying more to attract buyers to its 2-year bond than its 10-year note.

[Banks are paying people to borrow money. That’s alarming news for the global economy.]

This phenomenon, which suggests investor faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the past 50 years.

The Washington Compost,Its the only notification on my phone,My joke of the Day!! really .

you shouldn't take financial advice from such a rag... 

On 8/15/2019 at 6:03 AM, wolfriverjoe said:

Wow. You understand as much about the economy as you do about Global Warming.

Does the term "leading economic indicator" mean anything to you?
 

Conversely .

On 8/15/2019 at 8:32 AM, billvon said:

I remember late 2007 when a right winger here posted "the D's picked a bad day to start crying the R word!"  A month later, we were in the Great Recession.

Ah.  So Trump didn't do it, the Democrats did.

Did Obama make Trump grab women by the pussy, too?

No Bill, We all Know

"THEY let YOU"

On 8/15/2019 at 8:54 AM, normiss said:

At the very least, Trump is maintaining the Republican Presidential history of recessions.

 

you may want to rethink that.

On 8/16/2019 at 10:58 AM, wolfriverjoe said:

Make huge promises
Line his own pockets.
Run up huge debt.
(We are at that point already)
Walk away (with all the money in his pocket from step 2).

Oh' his maleficence. LOL

On 8/22/2019 at 1:44 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

Ya gotta love how Trump is claiming the economy is doing so well, while at the same time calling for the Federal Reserve Board to cut interest rates...

You might be aware, that Germany  and most of the worlds developed econoies have negative interest rates.So why should we be paying higher interest on our debit,We have less risk its BS.

On 8/22/2019 at 4:53 PM, billvon said:

Keep in mind that Trump's only goal is to keep the economy stuttering along until November 2020.  After that, he doesn't really give a shit what happens; he will have made his money.

I hope the removes the Ethanol mandate,Our wonderful "Food for fuel program".

After Just securing Billions from China for our farmers.

I think We can All Agree.

On 8/23/2019 at 5:57 AM, kallend said:

And now, the manufacturing index is down for the first time in 10 years:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/22/manufacturing-sector-contracted-first-time-since-data-show/?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

 

Compost,again

I think you'll agree, Manufacturing has been on decline, for decades.

Better than 0bama, responce "get used to the Fact"

On 8/23/2019 at 9:32 AM, SkyDekker said:

I further find it hard to believe that his tweets aren't just blatant stock manipulation on a massive scale.

I think youd be remiss if you didnt listen.

On 8/23/2019 at 6:56 PM, yoink said:

Or an an actual real understanding  of economics.

or International Trade

On 8/26/2019 at 1:46 PM, wolfriverjoe said:

Given the huge swings in the market since Friday (when he said he was going to make all US businesses pull out of China) to today (when he said that the Chinese delegation had called the US delegation to resume talks*), I have to wonder if one of his "Wall St Buddies" that has his phone number isn't using the power of the WH to manipulate the markets. 

It's been pretty clearly shown that Trump can be manipulated fairly easily. It's not too far fetched to think that someone who has access and a thorough understanding of the market and economics is taking advantage of Trump's foolishness.

 

On 9/9/2019 at 7:33 AM, wolfriverjoe said:

 

It looks like other folks have noticed that Trump's idiotic tweets are having an effect on the market.

JP Morgan Chase has started the "Volfefe Index", which tracks the effect that the Mango Mussolini's posts have on the market.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/investing/jpmorgan-trump-tweets-volfefe-index/index.html

You sould have Looked up the Volitity index it would be a better indicator.

Trumps like a dick,hardass boss,He's a frickn jerk we all know, but pays real good.

Now that,thats out of the way....

Back to the Subject of the Thread: The Vertue of our Capitalism.

[brenthutch 383]

The economy just keeps setting new records every month.  I just don't get the folks who always look for the worst in everything and refuse to acknowledge success when it is looking them right in the face.  Low inflation, record low unemployment, rising real wages and a record peacetime economic expansion.  Of course some numbskull will cry "what about income inequality" which reminds me of  an old Russian joke that tells about a poor peasant whose better-off neighbor has just gotten a cow. In his anguish, the peasant cries out to God for relief from his distress. When God replies and asks him what he wants him to do, the peasant replies, “Kill the cow.”

The joke illustrates an important point about human nature: the line between clamoring for justice and envy can be very thin.

[normiss 622]

47 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

The economy just keeps setting new records every month.  I just don't get the folks who always look for the worst in everything and refuse to acknowledge success when it is looking them right in the face.  Low inflation, record low unemployment, rising real wages and a record peacetime economic expansion.  Of course some numbskull will cry "what about income inequality" which reminds me of  an old Russian joke that tells about a poor peasant whose better-off neighbor has just gotten a cow. In his anguish, the peasant cries out to God for relief from his distress. When God replies and asks him what he wants him to do, the peasant replies, “Kill the cow.”

The joke illustrates an important point about human nature: the line between clamoring for justice and envy can be very thin.

President Obama did a damn good job handing over a thriving economy to a man that has done next to nothing in regards to the economy. Unless you're a very wealthy person anyway. Those tax "cuts" are going to cost our economy for quite some time.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

3 hours ago, normiss said:

President Obama did a damn good job handing over a thriving economy to a man that has done next to nothing in regards to the economy. Unless you're a very wealthy person anyway. Those tax "cuts" are going to cost our economy for quite some time.

Don't forget about the trade war, you know, the one that is 'easy to win'.

 

A direct result of that is that manufacturing job growth has virtually ended.

 

Certain sectors are seeing overall job losses.

Other indicators are not good.

Quote

 The U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index from the Institute for Supply Management came in at 47.8% for September, the lowest since June 2009, marking the second consecutive month of contraction.

Any figure below 50% signals a contraction.

3 consecutive months of contraction is considered a recession. And yes, economists will say 'recession' for specific sectors of the economy, even if the entire economy isn't in one.

It's kind of funny that the economy itself is actually a really poor indicator of the economy. There are 'leading economic indicators' that are specific data points that are good at predicting where the economy is headed. 

 

To a large degree, any action taken to affect the economy takes quite a while to have any real effect. That's why Obama had a couple years before the economy recovered, and why Trump has had a couple good years. 
The economy itself actually shows what the economy was doing in the past. It's a 'lagging economic indicator.'

 

Edit to add source of quote (duh):

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/04/its-official-manufacturing-is-getting-crushed.html

Edited October 14, 2019 by wolfriverjoe

[billvon 2,400]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

The economy just keeps setting new records every month.  I just don't get the folks who always look for the worst in everything and refuse to acknowledge success when it is looking them right in the face. 

I remember back in late 2007 how all the right wingers here were singing exactly the same tune.

[kallend 1,623]

1 hour ago, billvon said:

I remember back in late 2007 how all the right wingers here were singing exactly the same tune.

Yes, I remember. 

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, billvon said:

I remember back in late 2007 how all the right wingers here were singing exactly the same tune.

And as soon as it looked like Barack “spread the wealth around” Obama might have a chance at the White House, things went downhill fast.  The same thing will happen if it looks like the Ds have a chance this time.  We won’t have to wait for any policy to be implemented, just the threat of it will be enough to send the economy into a tailspin. 

[gowlerk 1,913]

9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

We won’t have to wait for any policy to be implemented, just the threat of it will be enough to send the economy into a tailspin. 

The US economy is already showing clear signs of going into at least a moderate decline within the next year. Trump's chaos is coming home to roost soon. I normally don't credit or blame the POTUS for the business cycle, but the coming troubles are going to be clearly traced to his policies. Which is kind of amazing given the advantages the US economy has in the age of fracking.

[billvon 2,400]

16 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

And as soon as it looked like Barack “spread the wealth around” Obama might have a chance at the White House, things went downhill fast. 

You mean the R's adopted the only spin they could after losing so badly.  Funny, the recovery started right after he got into office.

[kallend 1,623]

5 hours ago, billvon said:

You mean the R's adopted the only spin they could after losing so badly.  Funny, the recovery started right after he got into office.

Shhh. BH doesn’t deal in facts. 

[richravizza 25]

12 hours ago, normiss said:

President Obama did a damn good job handing over a thriving economy to a man that has done next to nothing in regards to the economy. Unless you're a very wealthy person anyway. Those tax "cuts" are going to cost our economy for quite some time.

Au contraire,the 0bama recovery was the slowest recovery we ever had, after such a plunge.the causes we can debate elsewhere.

I'm NOT a wealthy person in the least,After Decades of stagnation real wage growth has increased nearly every Q.

Do you Hear all the protesters in the streets Crying for $15 an hour?..........  its called silence    because theyre making $20

Half of all Profits in the S&P are payed to Share Holders.. is a very socialist,vertueous system.

Even that Greedy Walmart !!!   gives half their shit away !!!

You simply must participate.

Where do you think the cop,fire person, or teachers retirement and wealth is? Even those who rely on our taxes. Have it invested in our Nations great companies.

8 hours ago, kallend said:

Yes, I remember. 

Wealth redistribution, Take it from the haves!!! and they'll give it to the have nots.

That didnt work so well.

How about we Keep some of what they take,

Away from the Gov't, and back to the People.....The ones that earned it.

 

4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

 Which is kind of amazing given the advantages the US economy has in the age of fracking.

We have Many advantages,the Great Miss.River for one.

Do you think 0bama wanted the USA to be the World #1 Oil producer? to surpass Saudi,to become the low cost provider of Clean LNG around the World? That's American Excellence 

 Just research oil embargoes of 1973,we were crippled. A super power, I dont think so..  LOL not when we're dependent. We would be in a world of hurt right now.

Its has  always been a goal to become an "Energy Independent Nation" 

A Goal only acheive under This administration.... and an Orangutan.