Who will be the next POTUS?

[JerryBaumchen 1,049]

Hi Bill,

Quote

I am going with Breitbart, the O'Reilly Report and Newsmax.

While they have their positions, the WSJ says:

"August 15th, 2016

Wall Street Journal to GOP: Dump Donald Trump if he doesn't change (and he says he won’t)

The conservative op-ed page of The Wall Street Journal is calling on the Republican party to essentially abandon Donald Trump if he doesn’t change his ways on the campaign trail, which Trump openly says he won’t do."

http://www.today.com/video/wall-street-journal-to-gop-dump-donald-trump-if-he-doesn-t-change-which-he-says-he-won-t-744368195727

Jerry Baumchen

[normiss 622]

Now, magically, NATO AND Russia are cool!
We can be best of friends now.
This dude has too many multi-personalities.

[winsor 186]

quade

To the 18 people in this forum poll who said they think Trump WILL BE the next President, I have a question; where do you get your news from?

The father of a friend of mine changed market research methods greatly, and made a good deal of money doing so.

It turns out that, when customers were asked whether they bought Lux (a high-end soap) or Palmolive (a more pedestrian brand), they generally said 'Lux.' He found through detailed market research that more people actually bought Palmolive.

Similarly, even if U.S. News and World Report is viewed as a more reputable source, it is tabloids that fly off the shelves by the checkout counter. As Mencken noted, nobody ever went broke overestimating the vulgarity of the American buying public.

I suspect there are enough reality show/Jerry Springer watching, tabloid reading, 'muricans out there that won't admit to disliking negroes and illegal immigrants when asked, but will vote against such things in the polling booth, that Hillary may have a run for her money.

There is certainly a large population who dislike Trump greatly but would vote for Charlie Manson before they would vote for her. Putting another Ivy League Attorney in charge is likely to have predictable results (what Trump will do is anyone's guess).

For different reasons, this may be a case of 'Dewey Defeats Truman!'

My preference is 'None Of The Above.'


BSBD,

Winsor

[quade 3]

Okay, but that's not even what I'm talking about.

Forget about the people who are going to vote for Trump. Yes, there's always going to be somebody.

My question is, where are the people who are predicting he WILL BE the President getting their news?

How is it even vaguely possible a reasonably informed person can believe Trump will be elected to the Oval at this point?

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[normiss 622]

The stand-in personality that goes on stage for his big policy type speeches is one creepy guy.
It makes my skin crawl.

[quade 3]

normiss

The stand-in personality that goes on stage for his big policy type speeches is one creepy guy.
It makes my skin crawl.

He's pretty horrible with reading off the teleprompter and sounding anything like himself.

That said, it's a learned skill and one he doesn't have a lot of experience with. I'm okay with that. Policy dense speeches require it for numbers and details to be accurate. They all do it.

What I'm not okay with is without the teleprompter he has no clue what the fuck he's saying at all and it's completely obvious. I mean, no clue whatsoever. So much so he will contradict himself within the same sentence.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[winsor 186]

quade

Okay, but that's not even what I'm talking about.

Forget about the people who are going to vote for Trump. Yes, there's always going to be somebody.

My question is, where are the people who are predicting he WILL BE the President getting their news?

How is it even vaguely possible a reasonably informed person can believe Trump will be elected to the Oval at this point?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

[quade 3]

winsor

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

We need to bookmark this for future hilarious mocking.

I also need to send this to Nate Silver.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[winsor 186]

quade

***http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

We need to bookmark this for future hilarious mocking.

I also need to send this to Nate Silver.

Spare me.

[quade 3]

winsor

******http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/08/13/app-maker---trump-win-election/88640044/

We need to bookmark this for future hilarious mocking.

I also need to send this to Nate Silver.

Spare me.

You have a problem with 538's methodology?

I've love to read your take on why you think it's faulty.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[billvon 2,402]

>I've love to read your take on why you think it's faulty.

They don't "de-skew" sufficiently. And no crazy raccoons on that site.

[JerryBaumchen 1,049]

Hi winsor,

Quote

For different reasons, this may be a case of 'Dewey Defeats Truman!'

While that famous photo of HST holding up the newspaper is one of my all-time favorite photos, do you really think that we have not refined polling methods since 1948?

At this point in time, only a fool would think Trump will win.

Now, if she gets caught in bed with a 13-yr old boy, then all bets are off.

Jerry Baumchen

[rehmwa 2]

JerryBaumchen

Now, if she gets caught in bed with a 13-yr old boy, then all bets are off.

won't happen - she can argue about what the definition of 'in bed' read means

and Bill can threaten the boy to not speak up

it's already in the Standard Operating Procedures

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[billvon 2,402]

>When the curtain is closed nobody will know which lever you actually pulled.

And in anonymous polls no one know who you chose.

[billvon 2,402]

>He only needs a few more points to qualify for the debates this cycle, which would
>be quite an accomplishment.

Agreed there.

[yoink 321]

quade

***=======
In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.
=============

Animal instincts are not to be discounted, however, if this really were an "alpha dog" situation, I think Hillary probably could best Trump in a fist fight.


I've long been of the opinion that Mr Trump has never been in a fight in his entire life. A couple of beatdowns growing up rather than the silver spoon up his arse that he had may have been good for him.





Especially what with his tiny hands and all.

[Coreeece 2]

yoink

******=======
In this election cycle, Mr. Trump is the Alpha Dog of the pack.
=============

Animal instincts are not to be discounted, however, if this really were an "alpha dog" situation, I think Hillary probably could best Trump in a fist fight.




Especially what with his tiny hands and all.

I've long been of the opinion that Mr Trump has never been in a fight in his entire life. A couple of beatdowns growing up rather than the silver spoon up his arse that he had may have been good for him.

All this shit slinging must be a sign of intelligence . . .

http://phys.org/news/2011-11-poop-throwing-chimps-intelligence.html

Never was there an answer....not without listening, without seeing - Gilmour

[headoverheels 291]

Coreeece

All this shit slinging must be a sign of intelligence . . .

http://phys.org/news/2011-11-poop-throwing-chimps-intelligence.html

That should have had a photo of an orangutan, not a chimp.

[Coreeece 2]

headoverheels

orangutan

"orange tan"


https://www.google.com/search?q=orange+tan&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiE_I6n38zOAhVJ1h4KHWlOBUMQ_AUICCgB&biw=1536&bih=725#imgrc=_4eH_-J4WmbBZM%3A

Never was there an answer....not without listening, without seeing - Gilmour

[RonD1120 58]

We have given Islam unlimited wealth through the purchase of Mideast oil. Now they are financing our politics to take over America. We must stop this move, this encroachment into our way of life. The Democrat Party is a sell out to their money for power and personal wealth.

"Three things you (probably) don't know about Islam"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgsrnmzxEUY

Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.

[Coreeece 2]

RonD1120

We have given Islam unlimited wealth through the purchase of Mideast oil. Now they are financing our politics to take over America. We must stop this move, this encroachment into our way of life. The Democrat Party is a sell out to their money for power and personal wealth.

"Three things you (probably) don't know about Islam"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgsrnmzxEUY

I think the impending financial crisis is the first and foremost threat to "our way of life" - a way of life that for most Americans has exceeded their means. Right now people have a lot to live for - but when it's all taken away, they'll change their tune quicker than you can say "pay the piper."

As for the Sharia law thing - I just don't buy it. Right now about 70% of the country identifies with Christianity and we can't even pray in schools or set up nativity scenes, let alone execute homosexuals. Muslims represent about 1% of the population and I don't see that changing any time soon - hell, blacks have been here longer than most of us and they haven't even reached the 15% mark yet - and the ratio between whites/blacks hasn't changed in the last 150 years.

As for Trump/Hillary - it looks like I'll be "voting my conscience."

In the last ten years, I've had to make much bigger decisions that would have an immediate an direct impact on my life - and tho I knew it would make my life much more difficult, I had to go with my conscience and make a decision based on faith. . .

. . .and God hasn't failed me yet.

Never was there an answer....not without listening, without seeing - Gilmour

[wmw999 2,123]

Good post. I just wish our conscience had better choices right now. We might disagree on which was better, but when the discussion is on which is worse, it sucks.

Lurch's rant of a few months ago (February 16 -- it's not pasting, so you'll have to look it up) comes to mind. I spoke with him a little about it at the dz (man I need to go jumping more often). He said that whichever candidate fucks it up more is the one he wants, the system is that broken. I'm not sure I agree; there's a whole lot of individual misery in that direction, but I can understand it

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[RonD1120 58]

I hope you are right about the Muslim/Sharia Law fear that I have. I see the Democrats, at the national level, sucking up to their wealth and they appear unstoppable.

Of course, if Hillary makes it, she will advance the Marxist/Socialist/Progressive agenda instituted by Obama. The Muslim invasion will be forthcoming.

I will vote for Trump, not because he is the be all/end all, but we will have more social breakdown under Hillary. There will be more chaos and the people will cry out to the government for peace and they will surrender liberty.

Progressive Democrats want to break the American spirit and make us all just be good little boys and girls, under government control.

Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.

[DanG 1]

It's fascinating how two people can see the same two candidates and come to completely opposite conclusions. I mean completely opposite.

If your man wins, enjoy living under an Administration that is openly hostile to American values.

- Dan G

[RonD1120 58]

DanG

It's fascinating how two people can see the same two candidates and come to completely opposite conclusions. I mean completely opposite.

If your man wins, enjoy living under an Administration that is openly hostile to American values.

How so?

Look for the shiny things of God revealed by the Holy Spirit. They only last for an instant but it is a Holy Instant. Let your soul absorb them.