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jont

What chance would a complete whuffo have of surviving a jump?

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Having a drink with a non-jumping friend tonight, and inevitably the conversation came round to skydiving. He asked "If a completely untrained person put on a rig, went up to 12k and jumped out the door, what would be their chance of surviving?"

I thought about it, and started listing all the stuff that would probably go wrong - no idea which handles to pull, not able to find handle if you did know, likelihood of spinning to the point of blackout. Then, even assuming deployment was achievable, the great likelihood of not being stable and belly to earth, therefore extreme hard opening, entanglement, mal, who know what else. And if all of that was avoided, there's still the small issue of flying a canopy into a clear area and landing it, with no training or talkdown.

I surmised the chances were not good. I suggested maybe a 10% likelihood of survival, considerably less of remaining unhurt.

What do others think?

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Assuming they could find the hackey and knew enough to let go of it, probably not bad. They'd likely pull right out the door. As for landing, I think they'd survive.

--------------------------------------------------
the depth of his depravity sickens me.
-- Jerry Falwell, People v. Larry Flynt

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Assuming they could find the hackey and knew enough to let go of it, probably not bad. They'd likely pull right out the door. As for landing, I think they'd survive.



My thoughts too - but my first instict as I ever looked at rig was that siver thing looks like the one to pull.

Hell RED means no! So I'd hav pulled the silver thingy.

then common sense would have taken over and I would be able to steer - I probably would have flared high and dropped in - so probably hurt - but probably alive.
I'm not usually into the whole 3-way thing, but you got me a little excited with that. - Skymama
BTR #1 / OTB^5 Official #2 / Hellfish #408 / VSCR #108/Tortuga/Orfun

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I have thought about that before, probably pretty slim like you said...

Considering even WITH training people do dumb things like pull the cutaway handle instead of the throw the PC as evidenced here:

http://www.skydivingmovies.com/ver2/pafiledb.php?action=file&id=1004

I would say slim/none even with a working Cypres due to entanglement and/or flying a partial mal into the ground without trying to fix it.
NSCR-2376, SCR-15080

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If the person was jumping over the Arizona desert, they pulled the reserve handle right out the door, and they didn't try to steer, they'd probably survive. There's a pretty good chance they'd end up with at least a broken leg, though.

--Douva
I don't have an M.D. or a law degree. I have bachelor's in kicking ass and taking names.

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I'd give them a 90% chance of survival. They would probably just pull stuff until something came out. So they have an even chance of main or reserve if they even see the hackey or think it's anything other than decoration. Then, assuming their body position didn't result in an entanglement, they have a canopy above them. If they choose the largest open area around then they'll probably have a bumpy landing even if they theorize that something resembling a flare is good practice. If they don't head to open space then they may land in a tree and at worst probably just break something.
"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

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then common sense would have taken over and I would be able to steer - I probably would have flared high and dropped in - so probably hurt - but probably alive.



hmmmm. assuming you could work out what the funny yellow things were and were brave enough to pull them out of the keepers, and then knew what a flare was and why.

jon t

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My thoughts too - but my first instict as I ever looked at rig was that siver thing looks like the one to pull.


Yeah, with no training, the silver handle is the only 'logical' pull-thingy that you can see, so that'd prolly get yanked right out the door, prior to terminal, prior to any worse spinning/flippy body position.

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then common sense would have taken over and I would be able to steer - I probably would have flared high and dropped in - so probably hurt - but probably alive.



I think I'd figure out the steering (although I'd prolly try the front dive loops first...:o) But the flare thing? Hell no. I'd either not flare and roll and prolly break a leg, or flare like at 50 feet and stall my canopy and die anyhoo...B|:S
~Jaye
Do not believe that possibly you can escape the reward of your action.

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I have thought about that before, probably pretty slim like you said...

Considering even WITH training people do dumb things like pull the cutaway handle instead of the throw the PC as evidenced here:

http://www.skydivingmovies.com/ver2/pafiledb.php?action=file&id=1004

I would say slim/none even with a working Cypres due to entanglement and/or flying a partial mal into the ground without trying to fix it.



I can't get to that video! What's it called?
~Jaye
Do not believe that possibly you can escape the reward of your action.

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give that guy a student sized rig with a good spot - the odds are for survival rather than against. If not, DZs wouldn't be giving rigs to observers for the slim chance they might have to bail, coupled with the 5 minute training lesson.

If you gave the mini lesson - go out, count to 2, pull silver, they'll probably crash down somewhere at a reasonable speed.

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> "If a completely untrained person put on a rig, went up to 12k and
>jumped out the door, what would be their chance of surviving?"

99% assuming they jump the standard student rig. Even if they do nothing their cypres will fire, and it's hard to kill yourself under a 253 sq ft student reserve.

>therefore extreme hard opening, entanglement, mal, who know what
> else.

I've seen people open on their backs, backloop through the risers, grab the PC and hang on - the parachute opened anyway 99% of the time.

>And if all of that was avoided, there's still the small issue of flying a
>canopy into a clear area and landing it, with no training or talkdown.

I've seen people seemingly do their level best to kill themselves under canopy, and they very rarely succeed.

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If not, DZs wouldn't be giving rigs to observers for the slim chance they might have to bail, coupled with the 5 minute training lesson.



I thought observers got pilot-type rigs - single round canopy, one silver front-mounted ripcord handle, no steering

jt

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If not, DZs wouldn't be giving rigs to observers for the slim chance they might have to bail, coupled with the 5 minute training lesson.



I thought observers got pilot-type rigs - single round canopy, one silver front-mounted ripcord handle, no steering

jt


Our pilot rigs and observer rigs are mounted with a square 170 canopy in it... No dive loops on the risers though AFAIK :)
scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

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99% assuming they jump the standard student rig. Even if they do nothing their cypres will fire, and it's hard to kill yourself under a 253 sq ft student reserve.



I was about to respond with something similiar after reading the original posters comment of having only a 10% survival chance.



Forty-two

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Our pilot rigs and observer rigs are mounted with a square 170 canopy in it...



A square 170? Seriously? I think I heard about a square 370 pilot reserve rig, but this sounds a bit sporty for some of the larger pilots. (No offense meant, Bob, but we both know you don't want to jump a 170!)

Back to the core discussion, I think the odds of survival are good if they get something large and studentish out and don't screw with it. If they leave the brakes stowed and don't hit an obstacle, they'll have about as good a landing as I did on my first jump, when I managed to kill my radio, was unable to link up with the ground instructor waving a pair of the DZO's sweatsocks instead of flags, and finally per my FJC training flew my pattern and landed in half brakes with a PLF. :)

-=-=-=-=-
Pull.

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I have thought about that before, probably pretty slim like you said...

Considering even WITH training people do dumb things like pull the cutaway handle instead of the throw the PC as evidenced here:

http://www.skydivingmovies.com/ver2/pafiledb.php?action=file&id=1004

I would say slim/none even with a working Cypres due to entanglement and/or flying a partial mal into the ground without trying to fix it.



INCREDIBLE...

"Well, there were powerlines EVERYWHERE"...

What a flippin' D$%#HEAD. Never mind that the instructor risked his own skin to follow him down after an idiotic mistake... (Yes, I know that is the instructor's responsibility, but still...)
"I gargle no man's balls..." ussfpa on SOCNET

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On this particular incident, years later, I saw another viewing of this video portrayed on Real TV. Amazingly, the commentary was -completely- different and the AFF student gave an accurate account of what exactly happened. He actually, then, accepted full responsibility for his error!

Guess, in retrospect, he understood what went down.

Oh, and btw, this man's career?.....He's an accident attorney. He sued....and lost. And yes, the video was used as evidence.

ltdiver

Don't tell me the sky's the limit when there are footprints on the moon

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WTF?! >:( Just because I'm stuck using a piece of shit MAC at work, that means I can't watch the videos on that site? How motherfuckin' LAAAAME! I HATE sites that either don't put up both formats, and I HATE using a fucking piece of shit MAC.
>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(

-
-Jeffrey
"With tha thoughts of a militant mind... Hard line, hard line after hard line!"

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Our pilot rigs and observer rigs are mounted with a square 170 canopy in it...



A square 170? Seriously? I think I heard about a square 370 pilot reserve rig, but this sounds a bit sporty for some of the larger pilots. (No offense meant, Bob, but we both know you don't want to jump a 170!).


well most of our pilots are quite fit and are skydivers too, so they would "have fun" with the parachute. If they manage to forget skydiving was not the primary goal of their day... :P
Not sure about the observer rig... But seems to me that's what the pilot told me...
Landing a nicely loaded 170 would be survivable by most... Would certainly save their lives, maybe not their legs...
scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

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Assuming they could find the hackey and knew enough to let go of it, probably not bad. They'd likely pull right out the door. As for landing, I think they'd survive.



My thoughts too - but my first instict as I ever looked at rig was that siver thing looks like the one to pull.

Hell RED means no! So I'd hav pulled the silver thingy.

then common sense would have taken over and I would be able to steer - I probably would have flared high and dropped in - so probably hurt
- but probably alive.


Flare high? whuffo?
~J
"One flew East,and one flew West..............one flew over the cuckoo's nest"
"There's absolutely no excuse for the way I'm about to act"

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On my primary rig?

If they pull silver and don't get too creative, their odds are good. Raven II - 218 sq. ft..

If they are advanced enough to deploy the main, they're screwed. EXTreme FX 99.

If they do nothing, look for the crater. The CYPRES is in the shop.


Blue skies,

Winsor

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WTF?! >:( Just because I'm stuck using a piece of shit MAC at work, that means I can't watch the videos on that site? How motherfuckin' LAAAAME! I HATE sites that either don't put up both formats, and I HATE using a fucking piece of shit MAC.
>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(

-



What are you complaining about??? Why don't you just download RealPlayer (free) and watch it??? I just watched the video on Solaris/SPARC machine, for chrissake!
"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

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WTF?! >:( Just because I'm stuck using a piece of shit MAC at work, that means I can't watch the videos on that site? How motherfuckin' LAAAAME! I HATE sites that either don't put up both formats, and I HATE using a fucking piece of shit MAC.
>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(>:(

-


not very peaceful one more time... and this is not a political thread... :P:P:P
how about learning how to use your mac ?? and getting the updates for the necessary programs ???

Oh and I can't see the videos on my Commodore64 either...:)B|
scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

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