Israel attacks Hamas...Then What?

[GeorgiaDon 340]

Lets start with a clear statement that Hamas' attack on Israel was an atrocity and a war crime (actually several war crimes, including attacking civilians and taking hostages).  Israel has a right, indeed an obligation to respond in order to defend itself, in my opinion.  I would agree that the complete removal of Hamas would be desirable.  To that end, Israel has invaded Gaza and all the rest, as we all know.

Israel has stated several times that they intend to smash Hamas and then exit.  Israel has no interest in any presence in, or responsibility for Gaza after their military objectives are achieved.  So what happens after that?

Interesting article in the current Atlantic.  To summarize:

• Gaza is already on the way to becoming unable to sustain its population.  Most of the infrastructure has already been destroyed.  By the end of this conflict there will be no electricity, communications, water (desalination plants), most of the hospitals and other medical facilities will have been destroyed, same for schools and roads.  A large portion of the surviving population will be homeless, with much of the housing reduced to rubble.  About 2 million people will have little or no food, water, shelter, etc.
• With Hamas gone, who will step up to govern what is left of Gaza ?
• Israel has made it clear that they are not interested in governing or helping to rebuild.  On the other hand the embargo they have had in place for decades will likely continue, making it difficult or impossible to import construction materials Israel considers dual use (both civilian and possibly military use such as building tunnels).  Gaza cannot import cement, iron or steel products including rebar, paint, and so on.
• The PLO has made it clear that they won't do it either.  Among other things, they are not interested in being Israel's lackies.  They are barely able (or not really able) to manage the West Bank.
• Egypt?  Jordan?  Not their responsibility, nor can they afford it.
• BTW Egypt, Jordan etc are not interested in accepting millions of refugees from Gaza.  They already have plenty of refugees from Syria and other conflict zones in the area.  So the people of Gaza will continue to be stuck there.

If no credible entity steps up, it seems that the long term prognosis for the region is another Islamic extremist group, Hamas II if you will.  Only now the population of Gaza will be even more destitute and desperate, and likely to turn to anti-Israel/anti-Jew organizations for leadership.

So, any brilliant ideas?  Or is the situation just a complete cluster fuck?  Another 100 years misery, war, and death?

[gowlerk 1,915]

20 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

So, any brilliant ideas?  Or is the situation just a complete cluster fuck?  Another 100 years misery, war, and death?

Israel is clearly trying to force the population out of Gaza and make Egypt and or Jordan accept the refugees. I can see no other end game

[billvon 2,404]

4 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Israel is clearly trying to force the population out of Gaza and make Egypt and or Jordan accept the refugees. I can see no other end game

Agreed that that is likely what they are trying.  I don't see it working though.

[GeorgiaDon 340]

36 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Israel is clearly trying to force the population out of Gaza and make Egypt and or Jordan accept the refugees. I can see no other end game

Ultimately though won't that just force those countries back into the "enemies of Israel" camp?  Also I don't see how growing up in a refugee camp in Egypt is any less likely to result in a future terrorist than is growing up in Gaza. 

[gowlerk 1,915]

2 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Ultimately though won't that just force those countries back into the "enemies of Israel" camp?  Also I don't see how growing up in a refugee camp in Egypt is any less likely to result in a future terrorist than is growing up in Gaza. 

Yes, and that's why just as billvon says, it won't work. There is no workable solution to this situation that all the parties will agree to. One side or the other must win a near total victory to subjugate the other. Israel is currently much stronger, but demographically in a poor posistion. A normal secular state would work, but extremists on both sides will not allow it under any circumstances. In the long run Israel is doomed and they probably understand that. Which is why they quietly keep about a hundred nukes in reserve for the end game. The SHTF evangelicals could easily turn out to be right about this powderkeg. 

 

[Phil1111 913]

3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Israel is clearly trying to force the population out of Gaza and make Egypt and or Jordan accept the refugees. I can see no other end game

Nobody else in the region will accept the refugees except possibly Lebanon if Hezbollah forced the weak governments hand. But Hezbollah doesn't want that because it needs them to go to war again and it likes the Gaza geography in the heart of Israel. The refugees won't move because they call Gaza home.

Gaza will be rebuilt just as its been rebuilt four times before this after previous Hamas defeats. Except Iran and Hamas will be excluded. Presumably there will be a Egypt, Jordan, PLA caretaker government until new elections can be held absent Hamas.

Straight from the Israel media "U.S. Sees Palestinian Authority as Possible Solution in Gaza, Yet Israel Is Working to Weaken It"   The US should demand the resignation of Netanyahu after the war as a condition of help. Demand the west bank settlers move back to Israel proper. The only problem with this is that US evangelicals will strongly object.

So instead Israel will play the US once again. It will go along with a new government absent Hamas. Then the Israeli evangelicals will sabotage peace like they have done before.

An Israeli evangelical is a far right settler in the west bank an ultra Zionist.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Phil1111

[GeorgiaDon 340]

Maybe I'm being a bit of a conspiracy theorist here, but it occurs to me that authoritarians need someone to use to scare the citizenry.  Hitler had the Jews, Trump has brown people from shithole countries.  If Netanyahu didn't have Hamas he would have had to invent something like them.  Maybe he tolerated Hamas to a degree because they were useful, until they weren't.

For the extreme right wing in Israel, and really anywhere, the worst thing that could happen would be peace.  No-one to use as a bogey man.

Edited November 3, 2023 by GeorgiaDon

[JoeWeber 2,313]

4 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Maybe I'm being a bit of a conspiracy theorist here, but it occurs to me that authoritarians need someone to use to scare the citizenry.  Hitler had the Jews, Trump has brown people from shithole countries.  If Netanyahu didn't have Hamas he would have had to invent something like them.  Maybe he tolerated Hamas to a degree because they were useful, until they weren't.

For the extreme right wing in Israel, and really anywhere, the worst thing that could happen would be peace.  No-one to use as a bogey man.

No conspiracy theory, I think. Instead let's change up the game and stop sending aid to Israel. Tell them to stop pretending the future is in Gods hands and if they can not get peace with a military already orders of magnitude stronger than Hamas they are not worth further investment.

[ryoder 1,390]

24 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Maybe I'm being a bit of a conspiracy theorist here, but it occurs to me that authoritarians need someone to use to scare the citizenry.  Hitler had the Jews, Trump has brown people from shithole countries.  If Netanyahu didn't have Hamas he would have had to invent something like them.  Maybe he tolerated Hamas to a degree because they were useful, until they weren't.

For the extreme right wing in Israel, and really anywhere, the worst thing that could happen would be peace.  No-one to use as a bogey man.

Exactly. Classic ploy of the wannabe dictator is to find a scapegoat for the sheeple to hate/fear:

"Those people over there (points to a minority* group) are the source of all your problems! Elect me and I will persecute them to keep you safe!"

Out lined in this book in 1951: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer

* Minority can be ethnic/religious/racial/immigrant/etc

 

 

 

[Coreece 190]

So to sum it up:  Netanyahu is like Hitler because Trump, and invented Hamas since it's actually the right wing evangelical jews that chronically sabotage peace in the middle east, lmao.

. . .and then they say Slim and Brent are the trolls.

 

[Phil1111 913]

23 hours ago, GeorgiaDon said:

Maybe I'm being a bit of a conspiracy theorist here, but it occurs to me that authoritarians need someone to use to scare the citizenry.  Hitler had the Jews, Trump has brown people from shithole countries.  If Netanyahu didn't have Hamas he would have had to invent something like them.  Maybe he tolerated Hamas to a degree because they were useful, until they weren't.

For the extreme right wing in Israel, and really anywhere, the worst thing that could happen would be peace.  No-one to use as a bogey man.

No conspiracy involved at all. The Israel right wing seeks to weaken the Palestinian  Authority so setters can run amuck in the West bank opening new settlements. He doesn't need Hamas as an enemy. He needs the votes of Jewish West bank settlers.

March 21, 2023 JERUSALEM (AP) —" Israeli lawmakers on Tuesday repealed a 2005 act that saw four Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank dismantled at the same time as Israeli forces withdrew from the Gaza Strip. The development could pave the way for an official return to the abandoned West Bank areas in another setback to Palestinian hopes for statehood.

It was the latest move by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government, which is dominated by settler leaders and allies, to promote settlement expansion in the territory, inflaming tensions with the Palestinians and the international community...

Angry condemnation also poured in on Tuesday from the U.S. and several other countries over the of latest in a string of incendiary comments about the Palestinians by Israel’s ultranationalist finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich. Earlier this week, Smotrich claimed there is “no such thing” as Palestinians, sparking widespread outrage....

Netanyahu’s government has put settlement expansion at the top of its agenda and has already advanced thousands of new settlement housing units and retroactively authorized nine wildcat outposts in the West Bank.."

Assholes. .

Edited November 3, 2023 by Phil1111

[Stumpy 256]

5 hours ago, Coreece said:

. . .and then they say Slim and Brent are the trolls.

You're going that way to join them rapidly as well

[wolfriverjoe 1,346]

3 minutes ago, Stumpy said:

You're going that way to join them rapidly as well

 

Oh fucking please.

Cooooooorrrrreeeeeeeecccceeeeeee?

He's got a looong history around here.

Edited November 4, 2023 by wolfriverjoe

[gowlerk 1,915]

4 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

The Israel right wing seeks to weaken the Palestinian  Authority so setters can run amuck in the West bank opening new settlements. He doesn't need Hamas as an enemy. He needs the votes of Jewish West bank settlers.

The people who control Israel do not want peace, at least not at the cost of land. Note, I said the people in control, I did not say all Israelis. 

[Phil1111 913]

8 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The people who control Israel do not want peace, at least not at the cost of land. Note, I said the people in control, I did not say all Israelis. 

Agree. Israel has many political parties and coalition governments are the norm. Netanyahu is another trump and he currently faces corruption and bribery charges. His party just changed the constitution to remove power from the courts and give it to the government.

As I've said before the US has to adopt a tougher line about Israel. But after the gun lobby, the military industrial complex and health care. Israel has the most powerful lobby group in the US.

[ryoder 1,390]

Apparently, Allah is siding with Israel???

Turkish Lawmaker Has Heart Attack Immediately After Declaring Israel Will Endure ‘The Wrath of Allah’

[JerryBaumchen 1,050]

Hi folks,

As I have said:  I have not heard one Palestinian say that the 7 Oct attack should not have happened.

Three months ago ... we had 12% support for Hamas in the West Bank, and today it is 44%

They all are glad about it.

Prove me wrong.

Jerry Baumchen

Hamas popularity surges among Palestinians in West Bank : NPR

[billvon 2,404]

20 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

They all are glad about it.

Most of them, but not all of them.

These are the people we should be supporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-60173481

[JoeWeber 2,313]

16 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

As I have said:  I have not heard one Palestinian say that the 7 Oct attack should not have happened.

Three months ago ... we had 12% support for Hamas in the West Bank, and today it is 44%

They all are glad about it.

Prove me wrong.

Jerry Baumchen

Hamas popularity surges among Palestinians in West Bank : NPR

From the article: "Any person under occupation has the right to fight," 

44% isn't surprising considering the military actions of Israel has affected maybe 20% of Gaza and the natural predisposition of Gaza Palestinians to feel oppressed by Israel. What Hamas did was as morally offensive as was achievable with their means, same as 9/11. And like 9/11 the actions that followed are out of proportion to military need and out of conformity to the optics of political realities. 

[brenthutch 384]

This might be instructive 

 

[JerryBaumchen 1,050]

20 hours ago, billvon said:

Most of them, but not all of them.

These are the people we should be supporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-60173481

Hi Bill,

I do not see how something published 20 months prior to the 7 Oct attack proves that some Palestinians do not support the attack by Hamas.

I stand by my contention.

Jerry Baumchen

[JerryBaumchen 1,050]

20 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

From the article: "Any person under occupation has the right to fight," 

44% isn't surprising considering the military actions of Israel has affected maybe 20% of Gaza and the natural predisposition of Gaza Palestinians to feel oppressed by Israel. What Hamas did was as morally offensive as was achievable with their means, same as 9/11. And like 9/11 the actions that followed are out of proportion to military need and out of conformity to the optics of political realities. 

Hi Joe,

Re:   "Any person under occupation has the right to fight," 

Are you saying that this is justification for the attack of 7 Oct?

I continue to stand by my contention:  They all are glad about it.

Prove me wrong.

Jerry Baumchen

 

[jakee 1,257]

21 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Three months ago ... we had 12% support for Hamas in the West Bank, and today it is 44%

They all are glad about it.

Prove me wrong.

I think you just did.

[gowlerk 1,915]

13 minutes ago, jakee said:

I think you just did.

44 is less than 100. I'm pretty sure of that. There is no right side in this conflict. There are and have been many wrong actions taken. The wrong actions on both sides go back far beyond the current century. At this point large portions of both groups have made up their minds that the other side must be destroyed, leave, or be forced to surrender and one of them will do that eventually. Israel is stronger but it is surrounded by enemies. They are aware that in the end they can lose like they have throughout  the last two millennia. They have gone too far at this point but I can understand why. I despair and like the rest of us I am so glad to live in a part of the world that is more or less at peace. Merry Christmas from someone who can say that with no sense of irony even as a atheist. 

[wmw999 2,126]

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Re:   "Any person under occupation has the right to fight," 

Are you saying that this is justification for the attack of 7 Oct?

I continue to stand by my contention:  They all are glad about it.

Prove me wrong.

Jerry Baumchen

 

I don’t think it’s black and white, because I think there’s a lot of room between thinking something is wrong, and understanding how someone could come to have made the decision to do that wrong thing.

I have a Palestinian cousin  

Wendy P.