EV sales collapse

[ryoder 1,384]

25 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Only trouble I see in the future is who owns most of the mines needed for the batteries.  Anyone care to take a guess?

Australia? Chile?

Visualizing 25 Years of Lithium Production, by Country

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The new boogeyman of course. The evil China. But of course they actually don't, you have just been trained to think they do.

Oh there you go using facts again.

[billvon 2,400]

2 hours ago, airdvr said:

Only trouble I see in the future is who owns most of the mines needed for the batteries.  Anyone care to take a guess?

Australia and Chile. And why would that be bad?   Did FOX News do a Two Minute Hate or something on them?

[JoeWeber 2,299]

28 minutes ago, billvon said:

Australia and Chile. And why would that be bad?   Did FOX News do a Two Minute Hate or something on them?

Chile? You mean Child as in below the equatorial belt? Time for some man 'splainin, son, or daughter or wino or Don Fernando I'm thinking.

[billvon 2,400]

59 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Chile? You mean Child as in below the equatorial belt? Time for some man 'splainin, son, or daughter or wino or Don Fernando I'm thinking.

As in Santiago and Punta Arenas.

Australia: 52.9% of all lithium worldwide
Chile: 21.5%

Now, those two places may lack the child labor necessary to generate sufficient right wing outrage in Uncle Frank.  But if you go all the way to the bottom of the list you have:

Zimbabwe 2.1%

And hey, that's got to be enough to get him calling his liberal nieces Nazis and pedophiles.

[jakee 1,255]

3 hours ago, billvon said:

Australia and Chile. And why would that be bad?   Did FOX News do a Two Minute Hate or something on them?

To be fair a huge amount of global mining is bad just due to behaviour of mining companies. Rio Tinto is straight up evil and they're not even the worst.

[olofscience 422]

9 hours ago, brenthutch said:

No genius, I left that one out because the waiting list for the Lightning is a function of Ford shutting down production not because of huge demand.

But waiting lists are always because of demand being much higher relative to supply.

So if production had to stop because of the battery issue (collapse in Ford EV supply) , and if the premise of your thread was true (collapse in EV demand) then the waiting list should be relatively unaffected.

[brenthutch 383]

6 hours ago, billvon said:

As in Santiago and Punta Arenas.

Australia: 52.9% of all lithium worldwide
Chile: 21.5%

Now, those two places may lack the child labor necessary to generate sufficient right wing outrage in Uncle Frank.  But if you go all the way to the bottom of the list you have:

Zimbabwe 2.1%

And hey, that's got to be enough to get him calling his liberal nieces Nazis and pedophiles.

The question was, “who owns the lithium mines” not “where are the lithium mines”. The answer to that is China, with 60% control of global lithium production. 

[brenthutch 383]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

But waiting lists are always because of demand being much higher relative to supply.

So if production had to stop because of the battery issue (collapse in Ford EV supply) , and if the premise of your thread was true (collapse in EV demand) then the waiting list should be relatively unaffected.

The premise of a waiting time being analogous to demand was introduced by BillV not me, but let’s noodle that one through.
If only one person signed up for an electric F-150 and had to wait a year because Ford stopped production due to quality issues, it would hardly represent a massive demand, now would it?

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by brenthutch

[olofscience 422]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

The premise of a waiting time being analogous to demand was introduced by BillV not me, but let’s noodle that one through.
If only one person signed up for an electric F-150 and had to wait a year because Ford stopped production due to quality issues, it would hardly represent a massive demand, now would it?

That would only work if Ford stopped production for a year.

 

They stopped production for 5 weeks, they restarted production almost a month ago (March 13). 

[airdvr 197]

https://techinformed.com/almost-400-new-mines-needed-to-meet-future-ev-battery-demand-data-finds/

However, supplies of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt are in limited, with China owning the majority of the global lithium-ion battery supply chain.

In 2021, China produced almost 80% of lithium-ion batteries, whilst also controlling just over 60% of global lithium refining for the batteries and processing 100% of natural graphite.

This is a cause for concern for geopolitical reasons, as well as alleged ethical reasons that suggest the production in China violates labour and human rights.

I fear we'll just change dance partners from the ME to China.  If you want to trust China be my guest.  I don't.

Edited April 7, 2023 by airdvr

[gowlerk 1,914]

56 minutes ago, airdvr said:

whilst also controlling just over 60% of global lithium refining for the batteries and processing 100% of natural graphite.

This is a cause for concern for geopolitical reasons, as well as alleged ethical reasons that suggest the production in China violates labour and human rights.

So, you do understand that when those numbers on China's "control" are reported they mean that Chinese companies own the mines that are scattered around the world and not that the mines are in China, right? If China tries to deny those supplies to the rest of the world it just means that investment in other mines will be required and a bunch of Chinese companies will go broke.

[airdvr 197]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

So, you do understand that when those numbers on China's "control" are reported they mean that Chinese companies own the mines that are scattered around the world and not that the mines are in China, right? If China tries to deny those supplies to the rest of the world it just means that investment in other mines will be required and a bunch of Chinese companies will go broke.

I'm not saying they're going to deny us the materials.  I'm thinking more in terms of a monopoly of production.  I'm old enough to remember the lines at the gas stations when OPEC decided to flex it's muscles.

[gowlerk 1,914]

2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

I'm not saying they're going to deny us the materials.  I'm thinking more in terms of a monopoly of production.  I'm old enough to remember the lines at the gas stations when OPEC decided to flex it's muscles.

Personally I'm more concerned about the supply chain for pharmaceutical production being in the hands of India and China. 

[CygnusX-1 42]

The real question is why did China get to the point where it "controls" most of the Lithium mines? Could it be that China had more futuristic thinking then the American companies and government? Could it be that America is filled with people who only look backward and then complain when the future leaves them behind? If you refuse to see where the obvious trends are going and decide to do nothing, you are doomed to eventual failure. As far as I can tell, there is only one American auto company that has any thought to the future. The rest should be reduced to the size of Yugo.

[gowlerk 1,914]

28 minutes ago, CygnusX-1 said:

The real question is why did China get to the point where it "controls" most of the Lithium mines? Could it be that China had more futuristic thinking then the American companies and government?

Largely because it is a land intensive and polluting product to produce and they don't care that much about that. There is not a shortage at the present time and there are adequate reserves for long term needs. But it appears likely that in the medium term there will be a shortage as the demand increases and mining, processing and recycling all take longer to ramp up. This makes lithium producers a very good investment if you are willing to look forward a few years. China is centrally planned and more likely to invest for the future than western companies with stock prices to consider are.

[billvon 2,400]

7 hours ago, airdvr said:

However, supplies of lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt are in limited, with China owning the majority of the global lithium-ion battery supply chain.

Yes, they do - because they are smart enough to anticipate the market.  We were not.  Fortunately we can fix that.

Quote

If you want to trust China be my guest.  I don't.

And if you want to trust Exxon to look out for your best interests - well, good luck with that.

Quote

 I'm thinking more in terms of a monopoly of production. 

So what is the best solution to that?  To blame a politician?  Or to start our own production so they don't have a monopoly any more?

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-11-15/drilling-for-white-gold-is-happening-right-now-at-the-salton-sea

[airdvr 197]

14 hours ago, billvon said:

Yes, they do - because they are smart enough to anticipate the market.  We were not.  Fortunately we can fix that.

And if you want to trust Exxon to look out for your best interests - well, good luck with that.

So what is the best solution to that?  To blame a politician?  Or to start our own production so they don't have a monopoly any more?

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-11-15/drilling-for-white-gold-is-happening-right-now-at-the-salton-sea

Before the company can secure hundreds of millions of dollars in financing to start building a power plant, it will need a water supply agreement from the Imperial Irrigation District — always a thorny request in a valley whose massive Colorado River water rights are zealously guarded by landowning farmers. An environmental analysis from Imperial County is another prerequisite.

Good luck with that.

[billvon 2,400]

On 4/8/2023 at 4:18 AM, airdvr said:

Before the company can secure hundreds of millions of dollars in financing to start building a power plant, it will need a water supply agreement from the Imperial Irrigation District — always a thorny request in a valley whose massive Colorado River water rights are zealously guarded by landowning farmers. An environmental analysis from Imperial County is another prerequisite.

I think you misunderstand what they are doing.

They are drilling for water (brine specifically) and are going to use that both for energy and minerals.  The only waste product will be . . . water vapor.  They will indeed need water on site for basic needs (drinking water, irrigation of the lawn, process water etc) but will not need the amount of water that, say, a nuclear power plant or a fossil power plant needs.

There are already about a dozen geothermal plants in the area, and they've had no problem with water supplies since they need so little.  This will be exactly like them - they will just be taking out the lithium salts before they reinject the brine into the well.

And since this technology is an add-on to an existing power plant, if this one doesn't get approved, they just move to one that's already approved.  EnergySource is doing just that; partnering with an existing geothermal facility and 'mining' their wastewater.

But in any case it is funny to see you go from "China is in control of supply and that's bad!" to "It's too hard for us to do!" within two posts.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi folks,

Wow!  Talk about going backward:  Texas is on a crusade to kill the state’s stunning renewable energy progress - oregonlive.com

Wendy, see what happened when you left?  Is it the water?

Jerry Baumchen

[Stumpy 256]

15 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Is it the water?

 

On long, careful reflection, I think it's the morons.

[billvon 2,400]

45 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

Wow!  Talk about going backward:  Texas is on a crusade to kill the state’s stunning renewable energy progress - oregonlive.com

That way they can prove woke is a joke and own the libs.  So what if the price is blackouts and a worse economy?  What's important is to make sure both sides hate each other.

[Phil1111 911]

Lithium! its old already

"China is far ahead of the rest of the world in the development of batteries that use sodium, which are starting to compete with ubiquitous lithium power cells." NYT

Perhaps its time for the CIA to earn its dinner and steal come Chinese technology for a change.

[Phil1111 911]

48 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

Wow!  Talk about going backward:  Texas is on a crusade to kill the state’s stunning renewable energy progress - oregonlive.com

Wendy, see what happened when you left?  Is it the water?

Jerry Baumchen

Head trauma from all the football.

[billvon 2,400]

15 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Lithium! its old already!

What will anti-EV people complain about now?  I mean, it was so easy to show a picture of a gold mine in Europe and claim "that's where child slaves dig all the lithium for your precious golf carts in Africa!  I hope you're happy!"