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gowlerk

covid-19

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1 hour ago, Westerly said:

now, if you end up in the ER with covid, have breathing issues in the ER, then have chronic lung issues after--the cause is pretty obvious. But for a lung issue that suddenly just appears randomly (as most medical conditions do), with no symptomatic condition of COVID and nothing other than a positive antibody test, I dont think you can say COVID was the cause just because you happened to have a positive antibody test (which may not even be accurate).

If you have antibodies in your blood (indicating you had a COVID-19 infection) and the damage appears suddenly (i.e. it wasn't there the last time you were examined) and the damage is similar to people with symptomatic COVID-19 infections - then SARS-CoV-2 may well be the cause.  If a metastudy determines that this is a common occurrence, then the odds are very high that SARS-CoV-2 causes it.

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

If you have antibodies in your blood (indicating you had a COVID-19 infection) and the damage appears suddenly (i.e. it wasn't there the last time you were examined) and the damage is similar to people with symptomatic COVID-19 infections - then SARS-CoV-2 may well be the cause.  If a metastudy determines that this is a common occurrence, then the odds are very high that SARS-CoV-2 causes it.

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1 hour ago, billvon said:

If you have antibodies in your blood (indicating you had a COVID-19 infection) and the damage appears suddenly (i.e. it wasn't there the last time you were examined) and the damage is similar to people with symptomatic COVID-19 infections - then SARS-CoV-2 may well be the cause.  If a metastudy determines that this is a common occurrence, then the odds are very high that SARS-CoV-2 causes it.

Well we will see. There is still too much unknown. We dont even know how many people are asymptomatic. That figure has changed from 90% to 10% and everywhere in between at some point in the last six months. Safe to say no one really knows. Some people develop long-term complications, that is true for sure. But how many, what percentage, and what percentage develop permanent long term complications, that's hugely unknown.

Edited by Westerly
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11 hours ago, Westerly said:

Well we will see. There is still too much unknown. We dont even know how many people are asymptomatic. That figure has changed from 90% to 10% and everywhere in between at some point in the last six months. Safe to say no one really knows. Some people develop long-term complications, that is true for sure. But how many, what percentage, and what percentage develop permanent long term complications, that's hugely unknown.

That's absolutely true. But assuming the best because it fits what you want to do, and then applying that to the general population, isn't the way to go. Assuming the absolute worst will protect more people's health, but at behavioral and economic costs.

Wendy P.

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18 hours ago, Westerly said:

Well we will see. There is still too much unknown. We dont even know how many people are asymptomatic. That figure has changed from 90% to 10% and everywhere in between at some point in the last six months. Safe to say no one really knows. Some people develop long-term complications, that is true for sure. But how many, what percentage, and what percentage develop permanent long term complications, that's hugely unknown.

Right.  But what we do know is:

1) Many people are asymptomatic but are infected anyway
2) Even asymptomatic people have visible (on scans) damage to their hearts, lungs and brains
3) In some cases this damage turns into serious health problems

Which means it's a serious concern, and another reason that "herd immunity" via infection is a terrible goal.

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6 hours ago, billvon said:

 

1) Many people are asymptomatic but are infected anyway
2) Even asymptomatic people have visible (on scans) damage to their hearts, lungs and brains

Yes, but the big question here is how many? Are we talking 1 in 1,000 or 1 in 2? Big difference.

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3 hours ago, Westerly said:

Yes, but the big question here is how many? Are we talking 1 in 1,000 or 1 in 2? Big difference.

Well let's say that 1 in 1000 has life-altering damage, and let's say that the current trend continues and most of the US gets infected.  That's 300,000 people whose lives are altered months or years after the pandemic - maybe they're on oxygen or dialysis the rest of their life, maybe they just plain lose their lives a year later due to that damage (heart attack or stroke.)

That's still pretty bad.  More than the current death toll.

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59 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well let's say that 1 in 1000 has life-altering damage, and let's say that the current trend continues and most of the US gets infected.  That's 300,000 people whose lives are altered months or years after the pandemic - maybe they're on oxygen or dialysis the rest of their life, maybe they just plain lose their lives a year later due to that damage (heart attack or stroke.)

That's still pretty bad.  More than the current death toll.

Sure, but that is besides the point. I dont think anyone is advocating that everyone goes out and gets infected. That's retarded beyond belief, although if the guestamate that 100m people are already infected is accurate, then by the time the vaccine is out it wont really serve much purpose as everyone will already have been infected anyway by that point. Personally, I dont believe that figure is accurate. I think most people that get Covid do in fact have symptoms and the number of those who were completely asymptomatic is less than the number of those who were symptomatic. But that's just my guess. If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

My original argument was that I dont fully buy into the previous claim that many people who are completely asymptomatic are now suddenly having serious organ damage. If they were asymptomatic in the first place, then most likely the virus dident cause much or any damage to their body. I am sure there are exceptions, but I think that if you did get infected and dident have any symptoms, then most likely you can correctly assume you escaped harm.

However, for those who were symptomatic, that is an entirely different story. I can completely believe that those who suffered severe symptoms are now suffering from long term damage. That we already know is true and somewhat common.

Edited by Westerly

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That you already were infected doesn't guarantee life long immunity.
For a lot of viruses (including a lot of nasty ones) it does, for others it doesn't.

Influenza is a well known example where you must get an annual revaccination.
That is because the outside of the virus changes a bit over time, so that your immune system doesn't recognise the virus if you get reinfected.

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Under Covid education: "Police broke up a house party in Mississauga on Sunday that resulted in more than $47,000 worth of fines being issued to some of those attending...He said 27 fines of $880 apiece were issued and the two hosts of the party were each given a Part 3 Summons that carries a minimum fine of $10,000."

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15 hours ago, Westerly said:

Personally, I dont believe that figure is accurate. I think most people that get Covid do in fact have symptoms and the number of those who were completely asymptomatic is less than the number of those who were symptomatic. But that's just my guess.

The underlying problem here is that you are giving your own personal guess more credence than the educated opinions and conclusions of experts. If at the end of the day you're going to choose to ignore references cited by others, not cite any yourself, and stick to your own beliefs without any justification, why bother posting in the first place?

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

It's completely astounding to me that you think you have the knowledge and skills to make such an inference. Why bother with virology and epidemiology when we have you?

Aside from that, your thought process is flawed:
1) You've arbitrarily predicted (and stated as fact) that the outcomes of COVID will be (or "are", as if this is retrospective) similar to those of SARS, for reasons you haven't explained
2) You've been presented with scientific evidence that the outcomes of COVID are different from SARS
3) The only reasonable conclusion is that you were wrong at (1), yet somehow you conclude the opposite.

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

My original argument was that I dont fully buy into the previous claim that many people who are completely asymptomatic are now suddenly having serious organ damage. If they were asymptomatic in the first place, then most likely the virus dident cause much or any damage to their body. I am sure there are exceptions, but I think that if you did get infected and dident have any symptoms, then most likely you can correctly assume you escaped harm.

That's not an argument--that's a statement of belief with nothing to back it, and it's wrong. You believe it because it seems intuitive, but intuition does not equal truth.

 

15 hours ago, Westerly said:

However, for those who were symptomatic, that is an entirely different story. I can completely believe that those who suffered severe symptoms are now suffering from long term damage. That we already know is true and somewhat common.

You've already been provided with two specific example diseases that start as a mild viral infection but then later on become much more severe and even deadly.

And you've been moving the goalposts, too. First it was "organ damage", then it was "organ failure", then you got called out on that and moved it to "severe organ damage".

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14 minutes ago, Westerly said:

So how many cases are we going to get to after Christmas and New Years?

Nobody knows

 

15 minutes ago, Westerly said:

I bet that will be the spike of this entire pandemic from start to end.

What do you mean by that?

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43 minutes ago, nwt said:

The underlying problem here is that you are giving your own personal guess more credence than the educated opinions and conclusions of experts. If at the end of the day you're going to choose to ignore references cited by others, not cite any yourself, and stick to your own beliefs without any justification, why bother posting in the first place?

It's completely astounding to me that you think you have the knowledge and skills to make such an inference. Why bother with virology and epidemiology when we have you?

Aside from that, your thought process is flawed:
1) You've arbitrarily predicted (and stated as fact) that the outcomes of COVID will be (or "are", as if this is retrospective) similar to those of SARS, for reasons you haven't explained
2) You've been presented with scientific evidence that the outcomes of COVID are different from SARS
3) The only reasonable conclusion is that you were wrong at (1), yet somehow you conclude the opposite.

That's not an argument--that's a statement of belief with nothing to back it, and it's wrong. You believe it because it seems intuitive, but intuition does not equal truth.

 

You've already been provided with two specific example diseases that start as a mild viral infection but then later on become much more severe and even deadly.

And you've been moving the goalposts, too. First it was "organ damage", then it was "organ failure", then you got called out on that and moved it to "severe organ damage".

nwt, you, lippy and mrcwood are turning into our own Squad here. I'm liking it.

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17 hours ago, Westerly said:

If you look at other SARS viruses, most of those who got it were highly symptomatic and the outcomes of other SARS is pretty similar to that of Covid.

There is only one other SARS virus known. MERS is similar to it. I think we can all thank God, or our lucky stars, or whatever you worship that COVID-19 disease does not have the severity of outcomes either one of those do. COVID-19 is a far more potent spreading virus, but its morbidity is much much lower.

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1 hour ago, Westerly said:

You are right, it does infect fewer people which is good. This Christmas is going to be bad. I wonder if we will top 300k a day.

Well, it looks like we might be over the hump. So there's that, at least.

Hopefully it isn't some weird testing artifact related to the holiday.

 91-DIVOC-countries-EuropeanUnion.png.920f9d0b41731ae8fe79d0d95ef0648c.png

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(edited)
1 hour ago, nwt said:

Well, it looks like we might be over the hump. So there's that, at least.

Hopefully it isn't some weird testing artifact related to the holiday.

 91-DIVOC-countries-EuropeanUnion.png.920f9d0b41731ae8fe79d0d95ef0648c.png

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

Edited by yoink
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(edited)
1 hour ago, yoink said:

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

 

Humans in general do a really bad job of forgoing short term benefits for long term gain, even in cases where the short term benefit to risk ratio is not appropriate. It's just complacency plain and simple. People think, oh Covid may be bad, but that would never happen to ME, so I am okay and I can travel and ignore all the rules. They might be right, but there are also millions who learned the hard way that they were quite wrong. There are also still a lot of people who think it's just overblown BS. One of my coworkers is super adamate that Covid is just a fake flu that is rarely harmful, even though this person is clearly in the high risk group. Unfortunately, sometimes the hard way is the only way.

Edited by Westerly

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6 hours ago, yoink said:

Nah. 

We'll see a big spike approaching Christmas as all those who travelled for Thanksgiving become symptomatic, and then another early in the new year. 

Hopefully towards the start of Feb we'll begin to see a decline.

 

A friend of my wife's decided to travel to Minnesota for Thanksgiving, found out she was positive a few days after arriving and is now bitching about being stuck in quarantine there. What about the HUNDREDS of people you put at risk because you just had to 'get out of the state for a change' you daft bint??! Because you couldn't just suck it up for a year and sacrifice just a little....

Zero sympathy. Absolutely none for people like that.

Found a tweet response yesterday that pretty much perfectly sums up the rage and frustration for these people:

image.png.5e161b8a5c6319cd7e54793ecccb52ba.png

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