Green new deal equals magical thinking

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Tesla sales down 31% in the first quarter 2019

And up 110% year over year. Model S sales are down, Model 3 sales are just starting to ramp up. Those are the more affordable ones you keep saying you are waiting for.

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by gowlerk

[billvon 2,400]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Electric cars have been in development for nearly two centuries, their time has come and gone.

And come again.  Like big cellphones.

Quote

 They may remain in limited use for short range urban commutes and of course virtue signaling, but that's about it.

And for people who want the fastest car on the road, period.  And for people who drive a lot.  But that's it.

Oh, and people who worry about what gas will cost in ten years, and people who have almost no money and want a cheap used car that will get them to work and back.  But that's IT!  NO ONE ELSE!

And of course people who prefer new technology to older technology.  But absolutely NO ONE ELSE.  PERIOD!

Oh, and people who run shuttle services and need long lasting/long distance vehicles.  But how many of them are there, right?

 

 

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, billvon said:

And come again.  Like big cellphones.

And for people who want the fastest car on the road, period.  And for people who drive a lot. 

 

 

Cellphones took two decades, not two centuries.

Fastest car on the road?  LOL!  Let me ask you a question.  In a race from Los Angles to Los Vegas, what will win; high speed rail, the Tesla tube, the Tesla S or my Honda Accord coupe? 

[ryoder 1,384]

5 hours ago, billvon said:

And come again.  Like big cellphones.

And for people who want the fastest car on the road, period.  And for people who drive a lot.  But that's it.

Oh, and people who worry about what gas will cost in ten years, and people who have almost no money and want a cheap used car that will get them to work and back.  But that's IT!  NO ONE ELSE!

And of course people who prefer new technology to older technology.  But absolutely NO ONE ELSE.  PERIOD!

Oh, and people who run shuttle services and need long lasting/long distance vehicles.  But how many of them are there, right?

 

 

And if you want to win the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb: https://jalopnik.com/volkswagens-electric-car-just-broke-the-all-time-record-1827087085

[gowlerk 1,912]

47 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Cellphones took two decades, not two centuries.

You are pretty heavily losing this argument over the future of EVs. Are you really trying to make some point? Maybe just get to it and move on.

[DJL 232]

14 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Electric cars have been in development for nearly two centuries, their time has come and gone.  They may remain in limited use for short range urban commutes and of course virtue signaling, but that's about it.

My next vehicle will be an EV and I will pay 1/3 of what I do for fuel consumption for same cost of car.  That's simple economics.

[DJL 232]

12 hours ago, rushmc said:

 And then many of you do not even know or understand what the demand costs of electricity for the faster charging stations are going to mean to the cost of electricity for those who choose to get EVs. That’s coming. Three tier billing system which includes demand. Oh that’s going to hurt .

An easy fix to charging issues is modular battery compartments.  You don't pull in to charge, you simply swap out the batteries.  There are a multitude of advantages that charging/battery storage hubs can provide to our system based upon high daytime use and low nighttime demand.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 minutes ago, DJL said:

An easy fix to charging issues is modular battery compartments.  You don't pull in to charge, you simply swap out the batteries.  There are a multitude of advantages that charging/battery storage hubs can provide to our system based upon high daytime use and low nighttime demand.

While swapping batteries sounds good in theory, the reality is that the condition of the packs can vary quite a bit. It would suck to swap out a really good, nearly new pack to one that was old and on it's 'last legs'. Alternatively, it would be really nice (and cost saving) to swap out an old pack that was failing, and get a practically new one. 

An alternative to that is to have the charging stations run batteries or capacitors. Charge them up at night when demand is low, supply is high and cost is cheap. Use the stored energy to charge up the cars during the day. 

Large, heavy duty capacitors are quickly becoming a good alternative to batteries for some applications.

[gowlerk 1,912]

3 minutes ago, DJL said:

An easy fix to charging issues is modular battery compartments.  You don't pull in to charge, you simply swap out the batteries.  There are a multitude of advantages that charging/battery storage hubs can provide to our system based upon high daytime use and low nighttime demand.

I've heard this quite a few times over the past few years. A good theory, but the infrastructure challenges are immense. First of all, standardization of batteries, both the tech and the form factor would need to happen. And it would need to be across all manufacturers to be really effective. The batteries are highly energetic and need to have good protection and containment in the event of collisions. Hard to do with an easy to swap system. None of this is insurmountable, but it is hard to imagine it happening. What could be more practical is a system of rented or leased vehicles where the user would just get out of one vehicle at a charging station and get into another and be on their way.

[DJL 232]

24 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

While swapping batteries sounds good in theory, the reality is that the condition of the packs can vary quite a bit. It would suck to swap out a really good, nearly new pack to one that was old and on it's 'last legs'. Alternatively, it would be really nice (and cost saving) to swap out an old pack that was failing, and get a practically new one. 

An alternative to that is to have the charging stations run batteries or capacitors. Charge them up at night when demand is low, supply is high and cost is cheap. Use the stored energy to charge up the cars during the day. 

Large, heavy duty capacitors are quickly becoming a good alternative to batteries for some applications.

Another example of the massive options available within the car charging world not even to list the capabilities that a network of charged capacitors could do for peak shaving.

[DJL 232]

25 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I've heard this quite a few times over the past few years. A good theory, but the infrastructure challenges are immense. First of all, standardization of batteries, both the tech and the form factor would need to happen. And it would need to be across all manufacturers to be really effective. The batteries are highly energetic and need to have good protection and containment in the event of collisions. Hard to do with an easy to swap system. None of this is insurmountable, but it is hard to imagine it happening. What could be more practical is a system of rented or leased vehicles where the user would just get out of one vehicle at a charging station and get into another and be on their way.

That would be pretty amazing, especially tied in with an autonomous network to relocate vehicles based upon traffic patterns.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

33 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I've heard this quite a few times over the past few years. A good theory, but the infrastructure challenges are immense. First of all, standardization of batteries, both the tech and the form factor would need to happen. And it would need to be across all manufacturers to be really effective. The batteries are highly energetic and need to have good protection and containment in the event of collisions. Hard to do with an easy to swap system. None of this is insurmountable, but it is hard to imagine it happening. What could be more practical is a system of rented or leased vehicles where the user would just get out of one vehicle at a charging station and get into another and be on their way.

I agree.

Evolution of car sharing.

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 minute ago, DJL said:

That would be pretty amazing, especially tied in with an autonomous network to relocate vehicles based upon traffic patterns.

I think you are right about that direction. Autonomous and EV are going to go hand in hand in the fairly near future. I still have some doubts about autonomous, but it's clear they are coming sometime.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

24 minutes ago, DJL said:

Another example of the massive options available within the car charging world not even to list the capabilities that a network of charged capacitors could do for peak shaving.

Exactly. The tech is advancing at a very high rate. In part because of demand. Large scale storage is a major component of making intermittent sources (wind & solar are two) much more viable. It's also the key to 'peak shaving', what I understand is leveling out demand. Excess capacity at low demand times (night) gets stored, filling in capacity needs when demand is high. A steady demand is probably the biggest way to make electricity cheaper.

And the thought that 'electric cars are just for urban commutes' isn't really that far off the mark. Not necessarily true, given the advances in tech, but as far as the needs & demands of consumers. 

How many peoples primary needs could/would be met by a fairly short range car? City commuters have the 'advantage' of stop & go traffic during rush hour (stop & go recycles the energy and extends the range quite a lot).
Personally, I have a 2 hour drive to the DZ. Other than that, it's just around town. I am toying around with the idea of an electric motorcycle (the new KTMs are pretty cool). It would only be used in the warm weather, so cold battery life wouldn't be an issue. While the range isn't very far, it would suit my needs quite adequately. 

 

Quote

I think you are right about that direction. Autonomous and EV are going to go hand in hand in the fairly near future. I still have some doubts about autonomous, but it's clear they are coming sometime.

I think autonomous is closer than you think. They're already using it quite a bit on 'off road' situations. Big open pit mines are one. The big dump trucks are going 'auto' already. 

I've heard arguments that Artificial Intelligence is a long way off, so Autonomous Driving is too.

While I agree that real AI is a long way off (it's hard to develop AI when nobody can really define "intelligence" properly), the level of AI needed to drive a car is pretty low. Teenagers, drunks, distracted people (eating, texting, all the other crap you see people doing while driving) are all capable of driving fairly well. 
IIRC, even today's AD cars have a lower accident rate than humans. The pedestrian fatality in AZ made headlines, but would a real person have been able to avoid that person? And it seems like the tech to avoid that accident was in the car, but not turned on to reduce hard stops (and bouncing the passengers around).

Edited April 8, 2019 by wolfriverjoe

[Coreece 190]

This reply is from the Mass shooting thread, but I posted it here since it seems more relevant.

2 hours ago, Stumpy said:

10 hours ago, Coreece said:

Autonomous vehicles should also give EVs the boost they've needed.  GM's recent cuts are part of a restructuring plan that includes doubling it's investment in AVs and EVs over the next 2 years and unleashing 20 different EV models within the next 4 years.  By 2025 they expect to be selling 1 million EVs per year, which will create a more gayful driving experience.

 

Agree with regards to Autonomous vehicles - I'm actually pretty relieved that by the time I can't drive any more I probably won't need to! Autonomous and EV does go hand in hand.

5G doesn't really help autonomy though - thats a bit of a myth coming from the carriers pushing 5G. Not until there is a chance of the whole country being properly blanketed, which will not happen - potentially ever. I'm lucky enough to work with some guys who are working on Autonomous driving software and 5G apparently isn't even really talked about in that context.

I'm no expert, but it seems the relevance of 5G would depend on which of the 6 levels of autonomy you're talking about - right now it seems like we've been stuck at level 2 for awhile.

I'd agree tho that there is a lot of hype along with some conflicting and confusing information that has apparently created a bubble.

PAVE was recently introduced at CES 2019 to help educate the public/policymakers with more accurate information.

 

 

Edited April 8, 2019 by Coreece

[brenthutch 383]

13 hours ago, gowlerk said:

You are pretty heavily losing this argument over the future of EVs. Are you really trying to make some point? Maybe just get to it and move on.

We have been having this discussion for more than a decade and a half, and all things considered, my predictions have been more accurate than those of my detractors.  Artic summers ice free? WRONG!  Declining Polar bear population?  WRONG!  Growing desertification?  WRONG!  Declining food production?  WRONG!  Maldives under water?  WRONG!  Less expensive electricity from "free" wind and solar?  WRONG!  More hurricanes?  WRONG!  Increasing rate of sea level rise? WRONG!  More droughts?  WRONG!  More wildfires?  WRONG!  More tornadoes?  WRONG!  Snow a rare and exciting event?  WRONG!  California in a state of permanent drought?  WRONG!  Lower Brazilian coffee production?  WRONG! 

I could do this all night long but I hope that you get the point.  Goodnight guys 

Edited April 9, 2019 by brenthutch

[gowlerk 1,912]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

We have been having this discussion for more than a decade and a half, and all things considered, my predictions have been more accurate than those of my detractors.  Artic summers ice free? WRONG!  Declining Polar bear population?  WRONG!  Growing desertification?  WRONG!  Declining food production?  WRONG!  Maldives under water?  WRONG!  Less expensive electricity from "free" wind and solar?  WRONG!  More hurricanes?  WRONG!  Increasing rate of sea level rise? WRONG!  More droughts?  WRONG!  More wildfires?  WRONG!  More tornadoes?  WRONG!  Snow a rare and exciting event?  WRONG!  California in a state of permanent drought?  WRONG!  Lower Brazilian coffee production?  WRONG! 

I could do this all night long but I hope that you get the point.  Goodnight guys 

I guess changing the subject is a form of moving on. Thanks.

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

I guess changing the subject is a form of moving on. Thanks.

What are you talking about?  The GND is supposed to save us from all of the aforementioned disasters (that never happened).  Think about it.  A plan that doesn't work, saving us from a problem that doesn't exist...what could be more magical than that?

 

[DJL 232]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

What are you talking about?  The GND is supposed to save us from all of the aforementioned disasters (that never happened).  Think about it.  A plan that doesn't work, saving us from a problem that doesn't exist...what could be more magical than that?

This is one of those scenarios where your argument relies on someone actually having the argument back at you when they aren't.  That basically how Jordan Peterson makes his living.  It's fairly firmly established that the GND is a leftist pipe dream that nobody of substance is really getting behind.  However, the concepts within it are useful as bargaining chips to get members of the Right to agree to more centrist measures.

However, your list of things that haven't happened is both wrong and misleading in many aspects.  Many of those things ARE happening or they ARE happening just not were you say they're happening or the fact that they're not happening isn't relevant.  An example of each:  Desertification - Happening in Australia, India and much of the Southern Hemisphere; Land Masses Lost Because of Sea Level Rise - Many areas on the Chesapeake, many in Florida, many in the Gulf Coast, many more around the world; Cost of Wind Power - The cost is actually less in many areas but it's true that it's not is some, that doesn't matter because while instantaneous cost is a factor, long term cost is more important and that is measured in what it will cost to reverse the effects of cheap and dirty power.

Edit: By the way, this was pretty funny.  I'm not familiar with the thing about Maldives being underwater but if you google "Maldives underwater" the results are primarily about an underwater hotel being opened there which I guess you could say is someone planning ahead(?).

Edited April 9, 2019 by DJL

[BillyVance 34]

On 4/7/2019 at 6:45 PM, ryoder said:

Agreed.

Hell, Charlie Sheen would be an improvement over what we have now.

How about nutbag Alec Baldwin?

[DJL 232]

5 minutes ago, BillyVance said:

How about nutbag Alec Baldwin?

[BillyVance 34]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

What are you talking about?  The GND is supposed to save us from all of the aforementioned disasters (that never happened).  Think about it.  A plan that doesn't work, saving us from a problem that doesn't exist...what could be more magical than that?

 

Didn't Al Gore proclaim back in what was it, 1988, that the end of the world would come in 2000 because of climate change? My personal opinion of climate change is that it's bullshit. It's nothing more than a money grab by politicians looking to enrich themselves skimming off money going to bullshit programs or companies. Hello, Solyndra, anyone?

[yoink 321]

On 4/7/2019 at 9:14 PM, rushmc said:

 EV’s will have their niche. But they’ll never be more than what, I don’t know, you pick a percentage of the market. But it won’t be anywhere near 50% I do not believe..

When oil runs out, and it WILL at some point, EVs will become 99.9 of the market. 

Or are you expecting a sudden uptake of hydrogen fuel cells?

[brenthutch 383]

23 minutes ago, yoink said:

When oil runs out, and it WILL at some point, EVs will become 99.9 of the market. 

Or are you expecting a sudden uptake of hydrogen fuel cells?

Japan is betting on hydrogen

https://www.npr.org/2019/03/18/700877189/japan-is-betting-big-on-the-future-of-hydrogen-cars

Edited April 9, 2019 by brenthutch

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

2 hours ago, BillyVance said:

Didn't Al Gore proclaim back in what was it, 1988, that the end of the world would come in 2000 because of climate change?

No. Try doing some research before making foolish and blatantly false statements like this.

Unless you are just trolling again.