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billvon

Tariffs

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The latest tariff failure for Trumpies to deny:

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Farm bankruptcies on the rise in Upper Midwest
11/26/2108

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — The number of farms filing for bankruptcy is increasing across the Upper Midwest, following low prices for corn, soybeans, milk and beef, according to a new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

The analysis found that 84 farms filed for bankruptcy in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana in the 12 months that ended in June. That’s more than double the number over the same period in 2013 and 2014.

“Current price levels and the trajectory of the current trends suggest that this trend has not yet seen a peak,” said Ron Wirtz, an analyst at the Minneapolis Fed.

The increase in Chapter 12 filings reflect low prices for corn, soybeans, milk and beef, The Star Tribune reported. The situation has gotten worse for farmers since June because of the retaliatory tariffs that have closed the Chinese market for soybeans and held back exports of milk and beef.
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What do you want to bet that the "solution" to this will be government payments to farmers to not grow corn?

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GM does not have the vehicles to expand in Asian markets due to changing requirements, therefore they are not retooling for addition production. They have a nice market share, but will require time to meet new standards to compete.

For now they are focusing on their core market and what is selling strong and making money, which is domestic crossover (50% of sales) and trucks. Some sedans do sell but the ones that don't are getting the ax. The capital will be deployed into R&D for new vehicles and markets. Fleet sales make up a significant percentage of GM and I could see that as a future target market if requirements shift. Autonomous and new ZEVs are on the board.

GM sold their European division last year after years of bleeding cash and took a $4 billion charge which pushed them into a net loss. They couldn't make money producing and selling cars in the European market so they got out.

I know you want to blame this whole thing on Trump, but it's just not true. This change has been coming for the past few years. Don't just believe me, download the annual reports and skim them yourself. Will they come roaring back stronger and better than ever? Maybe.
Confirmed cynical sarcastic bastard since 2003

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I know you want to blame this whole thing on Trump, but it's just not true. This change has been coming for the past few years.


The change is the result of many factors. One (not the only one) is the cost of business in the US, which just rose for automakers due to the high tariffs on steel. To claim that's not a factor at all is silly. It absolutely is.
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Will they come roaring back stronger and better than ever? Maybe.


Of course. And Trump will take all the credit if that happens.

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Iago

GM does not have the vehicles to expand in Asian markets due to changing requirements, therefore they are not retooling for addition production. They have a nice market share, but will require time to meet new standards to compete.

For now they are focusing on their core market and what is selling strong and making money, which is domestic crossover (50% of sales) and trucks. Some sedans do sell but the ones that don't are getting the ax. The capital will be deployed into R&D for new vehicles and markets. Fleet sales make up a significant percentage of GM and I could see that as a future target market if requirements shift. Autonomous and new ZEVs are on the board.

GM sold their European division last year after years of bleeding cash and took a $4 billion charge which pushed them into a net loss. They couldn't make money producing and selling cars in the European market so they got out.

I know you want to blame this whole thing on Trump, but it's just not true. This change has been coming for the past few years. Don't just believe me, download the annual reports and skim them yourself. Will they come roaring back stronger and better than ever? Maybe.



I don't necessarily disagree with most of what you're saying. But i would make two points.

1. Nothing that trump has done is going to help autoworkers. Nothing. Given that many voted for him, my sympathies are limited.

2. As per my previous posts. US automakers are all aiming for the exact same market segments. Trucks, SUVs and crossovers. trump, republicans and [GM, Ford,Chrysler(Fiat)] have one idea of trade Barriers,tariffs, etc.

While the rest of the world, California(similar states) have this:
EU lawmakers want 40% cut in new car and van CO2 emissions by 2030
https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fleet-industry-news/2018/10/03/eu-lawmakers-want-car-and-van-manufacturers-to-cut-co2-emissions-40-by-2030

Beyond that, you don't study annual reports to see the future of industries. Thats what industry analysts are for. GM was wise to exit the EU. That market seems to be beyond the comprehension of GM executives.

But then trump, republicans and their supporters don't comprehend the rest of the world either.

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1. Nothing that trump has done is going to help autoworkers. Nothing. Given that many voted for him, my sympathies are limited.


Indeed, Trump is now actively trying to damage GM. Lots of #tregret at GM today.
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Trump threatens to cut GM subsidies.

By Matt Egan and Chris Isidore, CNN Business
Updated 4:15 PM ET, Tue November 27, 2018

New York (CNN Business) - President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to cut all General Motors subsidies after the automaker announced thousands of jobs cuts.

"Very disappointed with General Motors and their CEO, Mary Barra, for closing plants in Ohio, Michigan and Maryland," Trump tweeted. "We are now looking at cutting all @GM subsidies, including for electric cars."

GM (GM) stock declined as much as 3.8% on the comments. GM closed 2.6% lower, wiping out a chunk of Monday's gains.

Trump's threat came a day after GM announced plans to cut 14,000 jobs and shut five facilities in North America, dealing a blow to the president's promise to help auto workers. GM said the moves are designed to prepare the company for a future of driverless and electric vehicles. GM is also responding to a consumer shift away from sedans in favor of trucks and SUVs.

It's not clear what subsidies Trump was referring to.

A person familiar with the matter told CNN Business that GM is unaware of any significant federal subsidies the company is receiving beyond a $7,500 plug-in tax credit, which goes to the consumer, not the company.

The federal government provides that tax credit for each plug-in vehicle purchased. However, this subsidy goes away once an auto maker reaches 200,000 electric cars sold. And GM may hit that threshold by the end of the year, making its 2019 and 2020 tax credits smaller.
"The entire industry qualifies for this. It's nothing exclusive to GM," said Jeremy Acevedo, manager of industry analysis at Edmunds.
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US farmers letting crops rot as storage costs rise due to China trade war
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/417803-us-farmers-letting-crops-rot-as-storage-costs-rise-due-to-china-trade-war

The farmers say they are unable to sell their grain to China due to Beijing's 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans. That punitive measure came in retaliation for duties imposed by Washington. It is now too costly to store the grain in elevators, or silos that store grain, Reuters reported.

The cost of storing grain in elevators is reportedly two to three times more than it cost at this time last year.

“I’ve never seen things this bad,” soybean farmer Russell Altom, who is senior vice president of agricultural lending at an Arkansas bank, told Reuters. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the pricing and fees issues.”

Grain farmers have begun plowing under crops or leaving them to rot, hoping that prices will decrease soon, Reuters reported, citing interviews with more than 20 farmers, academic researchers and farm lenders."

MAGA, more winning.

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Phil1111

US farmers letting crops rot as storage costs rise due to China trade war
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/417803-us-farmers-letting-crops-rot-as-storage-costs-rise-due-to-china-trade-war

The farmers say they are unable to sell their grain to China due to Beijing's 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans. That punitive measure came in retaliation for duties imposed by Washington. It is now too costly to store the grain in elevators, or silos that store grain, Reuters reported.

The cost of storing grain in elevators is reportedly two to three times more than it cost at this time last year.

“I’ve never seen things this bad,” soybean farmer Russell Altom, who is senior vice president of agricultural lending at an Arkansas bank, told Reuters. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the pricing and fees issues.”

Grain farmers have begun plowing under crops or leaving them to rot, hoping that prices will decrease soon, Reuters reported, citing interviews with more than 20 farmers, academic researchers and farm lenders."

MAGA, more winning.



Soybean prices have been depressed for years due to oversupply.

Since China now won't buy them due to tariffs it should be great news for all the greenie types that want the US running on renewable fuels. So, how about this?

1- US farmers sell their soybeans to Argentina.
2- Argentina turns them into cheap biodiesel.
3- The US buys the cheap biodiesel from Argentina (which is already happening)
4- The biodiesel is blended with diesel to meet the US renewable fuel mandates

The farmers have a market for their soybeans, Argentina has a reliable supply of raw materials, the greenies are happy because they get their renewable fuel and are doubly happy because countries like Argentina aren't deforesting their land to make room to grow more soybeans for biodiesel.

Everyone happy?
Confirmed cynical sarcastic bastard since 2003

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DanG

Great! But if it made economic sense, it would already be happening. Unless you want the government to subsidize that, too.



Well, Argentina did just become the largest buyer of US soybeans so perhaps market forces have shifted.
Confirmed cynical sarcastic bastard since 2003

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billvon

>Well, Argentina did just become the largest buyer of US soybeans so perhaps market forces have shifted.

I wonder what "market force" caused that shift?



Well, let's see.

China stops buying US soybeans.
Instead China buys beans from Brazil and other countries that used to sell to Argentina.
Argentina cant buy beans from its previous suppliers (since they're selling to China) so buys from the US instead.

Hmmm. Wasn't there an economic aid plan like that after WWI? The US gave money to Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe gave the money to Western Europe and Britain for reparations, and they gave it back to the US to repay loans?
Confirmed cynical sarcastic bastard since 2003

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Iago

***Great! But if it made economic sense, it would already be happening. Unless you want the government to subsidize that, too.



Well, Argentina did just become the largest buyer of US soybeans so perhaps market forces have shifted.Two ways for a country to become the largest buyer:
1. Country 2 increases buying to overtake country 1, or
2. Country 1 stops buying, so country 2 becomes the largest consumer by default.
Which do you think applies in the case of soybeans?

Don
_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

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Iago

Hmmm. Wasn't there an economic aid plan like that after WWI? The US gave money to Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe gave the money to Western Europe and Britain for reparations, and they gave it back to the US to repay loans?



And it worked so well that time it's clearly worth emulating:P
Do you want to have an ideagasm?

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Hmmm. Wasn't there an economic aid plan like that after WWI? The US gave money to Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe gave the money to Western Europe and Britain for reparations, and they gave it back to the US to repay loans?




After WWI there was a time out, then a depression largely caused by a tariff war, and then another even larger war. Which may be the Trump plan. Except I doubt he really has a plan.
Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

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piisfish

Why not turn it into bio diesel locally and create jobs in the USA, and be greener on the double transport between USA and Argentina?



Hey, I'm just trying to think like a politician. It doesn't necessarily have to make any sense.
Confirmed cynical sarcastic bastard since 2003

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normiss

4 of the top 5 biggest point drops in the Dow have now occurred during the Trump administration.




The trump clan needed to pay for some upcoming legal expenses. Raising some quick cash on the markets was prescribed. Covering the short positions required a market correction. So:


Donald J. Trump✔
@realDonaldTrump

....I am a Tariff Man. When people or countries come in to raid the great wealth of our Nation, I want them to pay for the privilege of doing so. It will always be the best way to max out our economic power. We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN
82.5K
9:03 AM - Dec 4, 2018

'Tariff Man' Trump’s Tweets About China Talks, Recession Fears, Push Dow Down 800 Points
http://fortune.com/2018/12/04/tariff-man-trump-tweets-twitter-china-recession-stock-market-today/

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