Tariffs

[billvon 2,396]

So a week after claiming that there would be "no exceptions" to the new steel and aluminum tariffs, Trump changed his stance today to allow exemptions for "real friends." No doubt he realized that he needed a little more time to ensure that his biggest contributors got exemptions.

From FT:

====================
Trump softens steel tariffs with exemptions for ‘real friends’

March 8 2018

Donald Trump formally adopted new tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Thursday while allowing US allies to apply for exemptions, a sign of growing concern in Washington that the president was alienating America’s closest international partners.

“We have to protect and build our steel and aluminium industries, while at the same time showing great flexibility and co-operation towards those that are our real friends,” Mr Trump declared at the White House, flanked by steel workers.

“Our industries have been targeted for years and years by unfair foreign practices” — something that had led to “shuttered plants and mills” and “the decimation of entire communities. That’s going to stop,” he said.

Mr Trump has said he will impose a 25 per cent penalty on steel imports and 10 per cent penalty on aluminium imports. The tariffs, which will come into force within 15 days, are expected to lead to retaliation from the EU and other steel producers and heighten fears of a trade war.
======================

[ryoder 1,382]

Forbes: Time To Take Away The President's Power To Impose Tariffs

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2018/03/05/time-to-take-away-the-presidents-power-to-impose-tariffs/

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[BIGUN 1,053]

My observations of Trump to date (Each item on his agenda... Wall, Immigration, North Korea, Tariffs, etc.) has been his use of "The door-in-the-face (DITF) technique is a compliance method commonly studied in social psychology. The persuader attempts to convince the respondent to comply by making a large request that the respondent will most likely turn down, much like a metaphorical slamming of a door in the persuader's face. The respondent is then more likely to agree to a second, more reasonable request, than if that same request is made in isolation."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door-in-the-face_technique

Remember when Kim's daddy was the master of saber-rattling? We always knew he was looking for more trade or less sanctions. Makes me wonder if Trump has used this particular strategy so much over the years that it's just muscle memory.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[Phil1111 910]

BIGUN

My observations of Trump to date (Each item on his agenda... Wall, Immigration, North Korea, Tariffs, etc.) has been his use of "The door-in-the-face (DITF) technique is a compliance method commonly studied in social psychology. The persuader attempts to convince the respondent to comply by making a large request that the respondent will most likely turn down, much like a metaphorical slamming of a door in the persuader's face. The respondent is then more likely to agree to a second, more reasonable request, than if that same request is made in isolation."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Door-in-the-face_technique

Remember when Kim's daddy was the master of saber-rattling? We always knew he was looking for more trade or less sanctions. Makes me wonder if Trump has used this particular strategy so much over the years that it's just muscle memory.

That could be true. Its certainly part of salesmanship.

But for the political leader of any country there is a simpler more direct standard at play. No leader of any other country is going to be shoved around by the USA bully. Just look at Mexico, the meeting this month was cancelled. Enrique Peña Nieto had a "tense" call and the second planned meeting was turfed in less than a year.

The Mexican president wouldn't even meet with trump if the wall was up for discussion. Cohen, the Koch editorial, the US FED, all state tariffs are bad.

[christelsabine 1]

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/donald-trump-profitiert-selbst-am-meisten-von-strafzoellen-a-1197216.html

How happy they look, those hard working steel workers - smiling from cheek to cheek ... oh wait: That's mr. trump, showing his propaganda *smile* while generously giving away gifts

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[AlanS 1]

I'm all for free trade with countries that treat their citizens fairly and have reciprocal trading rules with us. I want free trade with Europe, Canada, Mexico, Central America, most of South America, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia, Kenya, Nigeria, etc...

China on the other hand is an exception to that rule. They don't give their citizens the right of free speech or any choice in who rules them. They don't give us the same access to their markets as we give them. Their use their citizens as cheap labor and don't follow the same environmental protection rules to undercut U.S manufactures. The countries regularly steals intellectual property from our companies. China looked the other way as North Korea shipped the chemicals and high-tech machinery needed to the build nuclear bombs and rockets that now can reach our shores.

China currently doesn't follow the same rules. So I'm all for putting tariffs on products from China until they they treat our companies the same as we treat theirs, and they give their citizens more freedoms.

China exported $506 billion to the U.S. while accepting only $130 billion in imports. That isn't free and fair trade. So tariffs on imports from China? I'm all for it.

[ryoder 1,382]

"In the past decade, the US had been ramping up the use of targeted tariffs to help protect the US steel industry from unfair trading practices, which include selling steel in the United States at a cheaper price than the price the exporting country sells it elsewhere (this is called “dumping”).

So China was frequently punished for this type of practice, and 94 percent of its steel exports and 96 percent of its aluminum exports to the United States are already being taxed. It hasn’t been exporting nearly as much steel to the US as it once did — which is why it won’t be as badly hurt by the tariffs."

Source: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/8/17096510/trump-tariffs-nafta-steel-aluminum

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[AlanS 1]

ryoder

"In the past decade, the US had been ramping up the use of targeted tariffs to help protect the US steel industry from unfair trading practices, which include selling steel in the United States at a cheaper price than the price the exporting country sells it elsewhere (this is called “dumping”).

So China was frequently punished for this type of practice, and 94 percent of its steel exports and 96 percent of its aluminum exports to the United States are already being taxed. It hasn’t been exporting nearly as much steel to the US as it once did — which is why it won’t be as badly hurt by the tariffs."

Source: https://www.vox.com/2018/3/8/17096510/trump-tariffs-nafta-steel-aluminum

One example. The new Bay Bridge is made of steel from China and they skipped some important QA step which forced CalTrans to do some expensive retrofits. In the end CalTrans didn't save any money and we exported those jobs needlessly to China.

I didn't vote for Trump, but as long has he focuses tariffs on the unfair trade practices of China, I'm for it.

[billvon 2,396]

>One example. The new Bay Bridge is made of steel from China . . . .

Right. You do realize that a tariff is not an embargo, right?

>and they skipped some important QA step which forced CalTrans to do some
>expensive retrofits.

The Chinese built the bridge?

[kallend 1,623]

billvon

>One example. The new Bay Bridge is made of steel from China . . . .

Right. You do realize that a tariff is not an embargo, right?

>and they skipped some important QA step which forced CalTrans to do some
>expensive retrofits.

The Chinese built the bridge?

Well, they built the Central Pacific Railroad over the Sierras, so why not?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[AlanS 1]

billvon

>One example. The new Bay Bridge is made of steel from China . . . .

Right. You do realize that a tariff is not an embargo, right?

Of course, what kind of stupid statement is that?

billvon

>and they skipped some important QA step which forced CalTrans to do some
>expensive retrofits.

The Chinese built the bridge?

Yes! Specifically in Shanghai, and large parts were floated across the Pacific ocean.

This According to the New York Times.

See the headline.

New York Times Headline

Bridge Comes to San Francisco With a Made-in-China Label

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/business/global/26bridge.html

I'll even quote the first paragraph for you.

New York Times

SHANGHAI — Talk about outsourcing.

At a sprawling manufacturing complex here, hundreds of Chinese laborers are now completing work on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

Next month, the last four of more than two dozen giant steel modules — each with a roadbed segment about half the size of a football field — will be loaded onto a huge ship and transported 6,500 miles to Oakland. There, they will be assembled to fit into the eastern span of the new Bay Bridge.

[billvon 2,396]

>Yes! Specifically in Shanghai, and large parts were floated across the Pacific ocean.

How odd. Odder still that a city got a lowest-bid job from China and didn't inspect the components before construction.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi Bill,

Quote

Odder still that a city got a lowest-bid job from China and didn't inspect the components before construction.

While I do not know, I would think that the bridge project would have been a state level project.

As to 'odder still,' not really. They quite often simply do not have the budget to send people to where the materials are being fabricated; the job that I did for 30 yrs.

Also, any inspection upon arrival quite possibly would have been merely a cursory inspection. They probably found the problems during the construction phase.

Jerry Baumchen

[AlanS 1]

JerryBaumchen

Hi Bill,

Quote

Odder still that a city got a lowest-bid job from China and didn't inspect the components before construction.

While I do not know, I would think that the bridge project would have been a state level project.

As to 'odder still,' not really. They quite often simply do not have the budget to send people to where the materials are being fabricated; the job that I did for 30 yrs.

Also, any inspection upon arrival quite possibly would have been merely a cursory inspection. They probably found the problems during the construction phase.

Jerry Baumchen

This is article talks give some details about how CalTrains failed to do the proper inspections, and how the on site inspectors were ignored by both the Chinese company/workers and CalTrain's management that "didn't what to hear, what they didn't want to hear", and re-assigned any inspectors that told the truth when they found the work was not up to proper standards.

headline

{California} Senate report: Caltrans ignored shoddy work on Bay Bridge in China and U.S.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/investigations/bay-bridge/article2589402.html

Quote

Among the report’s key revelations:

• Quality control managers found thousands of cracks in welds produced by a Chinese contractor for the span’s signature tower and roadway. Rather than ordering all needed fixes, top California Department of Transportation managers replaced those who discovered the problems.

• Millions of dollars were paid to the same Chinese contractor to speed up work after it fell behind schedule and bridge officials urgently wanted faster results.

• Bridge officials rejected warnings in 2008 that suspect anchor rods for the suspension span were not adequately tested; some of those rods snapped last year.

• Officials frequently told contractors and employees not to put concerns about quality into writing – ostensibly to avoid disclosure under the state Public Records Act.

Quote

Jim Merrill, formerly a top manager with MacTec Engineering and Consulting Inc., oversaw Bay Bridge quality control work in China from 2006 through 2008 and was a key source for the report. In 2008 he warned Caltrans officials that parts produced by Zhenhua Port Machinery Co. contained “hundreds of cracks,” prohibited by the contract and by welding codes.

The work took place on Changxing Island near Shanghai, where most of the steel for the suspension span tower and roadway was assembled.

The report said Merrill believes that bridge managers were more concerned about the schedule than safety.

Philip J. Stolarksi, a deputy chief for Caltrans’ Division of Engineering Services, agreed with Merrill. “For the Chinese, the weld standards were ‘suggestions,’ ” the report quoted Stolarski as saying.

Douglas Coe, a Caltrans bridge engineer who served for years as a top Bay Bridge manager, was forced off his job supervising Chinese work in 2009 after finding cracked welds on parts for the suspension span’s signature tower, then instructing the builder to augment testing. Top bridge manager Tony Anziano ordered Coe to rescind those instructions.

Soon afterward, Coe was reassigned from China to the Antioch Bridge that links Contra Costa and Sacramento counties over the San Joaquin River.

Thousands of cracks were detected, according to Coe’s account. “The Chinese were not catching stuff,” he was quoted as saying. “Normally, we would have stopped (fabrication),” but he felt “pressure not to stop.”

Coe added that Peter E. Siegenthaler, formerly a top bridge manager, essentially told Merrill, “Don’t find cracks.”

[ryoder 1,382]

Oh, for chrissake!
The attitude toward testing is reminding me of the movie "Pentagon Wars"(1998), which was based on the true story of the development of the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.

From the film (with Kelsey Grammer playing Partridge):

Major General Partridge: Just because the tests didn't turn out the way Colonel Burton thought they would, was no reason to suspect there was anything devious going on.

Madame Chairwoman: I ask you General, filling the fuel tanks with WATER before a test to check the combustibility of those tanks, that wasn't devious?

Major General Partridge: If the tanks had been filled with fuel, there's a good chance the vehicle would have exploded.

Congressman #1: Isn't that the point?

Major General Partridge: If the vehicle had exploded, we wouldn't be able to run additional tests!

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[kallend 1,623]

billvon

>Yes! Specifically in Shanghai, and large parts were floated across the Pacific ocean.

How odd. Odder still that a city got a lowest-bid job from China and didn't inspect the components before construction.

The Kings Bridge failure in Melbourne Australia (1960) involved US made steel components that were not properly inspected by the local contractors before being installed, and then a faulty weld sequence.

History repeats.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[AlanS 1]

I quite frankly think we should tie our tariffs to a countries "freedom house index" or at least I countries willingness to make improvements on giving it's citizens more freedom.

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018

China (with it's elimination of term limits for President Xi, and it's walling off it's citizens from the internet) has been regressing, for that past decade. Our tariffs with China need to reflect that reality.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi Alan,

Quote

I quite frankly think we should tie our tariffs to a countries "freedom house index" or at least I countries willingness to make improvements on giving it's citizens more freedom.

I have worked in Asia, South America, lots of North America, and lots of Europe.

IMO that will never happen.

Did you tell the mfr of the last piece of skydiving gear that you bought how he should run his company?

Jerry Baumchen

[billvon 2,396]

>Did you tell the mfr of the last piece of skydiving gear that you bought how he should
>run his company?

Funny; I've had that conversation with at least three manufacturers of gear I've bought, from containers to sweatshirts. (But that's more along the lines of "skydiving is a small industry" than "the skydiving industry is different.")

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

AlanS

I quite frankly think we should tie our tariffs to a countries "freedom house index" or at least I countries willingness to make improvements on giving it's citizens more freedom.

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018

China (with it's elimination of term limits for President Xi, and it's walling off it's citizens from the internet) has been regressing, for that past decade. Our tariffs with China need to reflect that reality.

Well, given our own behavior, especially in the Middle East and South and Central America, that would be more than 'just a little bit' hypocritical.

And I'm not just talking in the "distant past", I'm talking in the past 50 or 60 years.

Or less.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[AlanS 1]

wolfriverjoe

***I quite frankly think we should tie our tariffs to a countries "freedom house index" or at least I countries willingness to make improvements on giving it's citizens more freedom.

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2018

China (with it's elimination of term limits for President Xi, and it's walling off it's citizens from the internet) has been regressing, for that past decade. Our tariffs with China need to reflect that reality.

Well, given our own behavior, especially in the Middle East and South and Central America, that would be more than 'just a little bit' hypocritical.

And I'm not just talking in the "distant past", I'm talking in the past 50 or 60 years.

Or less.

I'm in 100% agreement on that statement. In the past and in the present. By not pay up front for supporting our principles, and not supporting freedom we all pay a cost later. It takes decades, but eventually we pay.

Our buying oil for Saudi Arabia paid for the very schools in places like Pakistan to teach and spread radical islam, displacing more moderate islamic people and fueling the terrorism we are fighting now. That is the cost we are paying now for the sin of supporting a radical country like Saudi Arabia.

Right now, we are turning our back on the Kurds and other minorities in the ME that want democracy, but are currently under the thumb of more tribal societies. Someday we will pay a price for that.


And for China, we have made a foolish bet, that trading with them will bring more freedom to that region. Instead the rulers in Beijing, are slowly tightening noose around democratic institutions in Hong Kong. And the Chinese leadership with the "Great (Internet) Wall of China", citizen databases and soon facial recognition software for crowds, is create the tools for autocrats to control their own populations.

Are they setting the template for autocratic leaders to rule?
In the next two decades will they start to export this technology to other autocratic rulers like in Iran and Russia?

In a worse case scenario over the next two decades they could start exporting that technology to other autocratic rulers, solidifying the control of autocrats in the world.

Democracy and freedom are in slow retreat right now. I don't see what is going to reverse that trend.

Feel free to disagree with me.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

AlanS

Democracy and freedom are in slow retreat right now. I don't see what is going to reverse that trend.

Feel free to disagree with me.

I don't disagree with that at all.

Given that the US, in theory the 'shining beacon of democracy', has for it's president a 'wannabe demagouge', who is almost certainly influenced by Russia, I think the world may well be in trouble.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi Alan,

Quote

And for China, we have made a foolish bet, that trading with them will bring more freedom to that region.

On this, I disagree. Mfg went to China because every CEO there is, is tasked with increasing dividends for the shareholders. This is what they want.

IMO it was simple economic reasoning.

Jerry Baumchen

[DJL 232]

wolfriverjoe

***
Democracy and freedom are in slow retreat right now. I don't see what is going to reverse that trend.

Feel free to disagree with me.

I don't disagree with that at all.

Given that the US, in theory the 'shining beacon of democracy', has for it's president a 'wannabe demagouge', who is almost certainly influenced by Russia, I think the world may well be in trouble.

I don't disagree with that either. The speed at which we communicate has pushed Democracy farther from Representative Democracy to a pure Democracy that operates more as mob rule because more people have voices and are able to be influenced by various forces and in effect have a greater influence on elected officials. Putin knows very well that with just a few tweaks we show our dirty underbelly where the loudest and more extreme views become center stage news. I have no doubt that he purposefully exacerbated the crisis of Muslims fleeing into Europe because he knows it would embolden the far right to become more vocal. He has done much to amplify both far left and far right propaganda in order to attempt to bring Democracy to a gridlock and to discredit European/Western Governments.

Is it so hard to imagine Russia swooping in to North Korea's aid in exchange for a warm water Naval Base? Putin is a Czarist and Russia's long term plan for over 100 years had been to obtain warm water ports for shipping and national defense.

"I encourage all awesome dangerous behavior." - Jeffro Fincher

[AlanS 1]

AlanS

And for China, we have made a foolish bet, that trading with them will bring more freedom to that region. Instead the rulers in Beijing, are slowly tightening noose around democratic institutions in Hong Kong. And the Chinese leadership with the "Great (Internet) Wall of China", citizen databases and soon facial recognition software for crowds, is create the tools for autocrats to control their own populations.

Are they setting the template for autocratic leaders to rule?
In the next two decades will they start to export this technology to other autocratic rulers like in Iran and Russia?

In a worse case scenario over the next two decades they could start exporting that technology to other autocratic rulers, solidifying the control of autocrats in the world.

Democracy and freedom are in slow retreat right now. I don't see what is going to reverse that trend.

Here is an article about China's social credit scheme.

Chinese Citizens With Bad 'Social Credit' to Be Blocked From Taking Planes and Trains
https://gizmodo.com/chinese-citizens-with-bad-social-credit-to-be-blocked-f-1823845648