Tariffs

[ScottishJohn 25]

But there is a limit.
USA does $130B trade with China annually.
If China retaliates to Trumps plan and imposes tariffs on an additional $100B of trade on top of the tariffs on $50B trade already mentioned then I think thats as far as China can go.

He must be feeling very clever at the moment. Only a stable genius could think up a plan where the USA can impose tariffs on $150B trade from China and China could only respond with tariffs on $130B trade from USA.

Since there is no plan to implement these tariffs for another 2 months I suspect that the USA Gov are hoping to get negotiations with China to thrash out some deal so Trump can claim some sort of victory (god knows there have been few of them for the current Gov) and confirm his own belifs that he is King of the Deal.

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If you think my attitude stinks you should smell my fingers

[kallend 1,621]

billvon

"We are not in a trade war with China!"

Today -

"In light of China's unfair retaliation, I have instructed the [United States Trade Representative] to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate."

It's almost like it's a conflict where each side escalates without limit. But in a manner that IN NO WAY resembles any sort of a war. War on drugs? Sure, that's a thing. But this is NOT a trade war.

"We've never been at war with Eastasia".

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Ok, here's some speculation for you all (and yes, it's pure speculation, no evidence what so ever):

1 - Trump threatens to increase tariffs on Chinese imports.

2 - China retaliates by increasing tariffs on US exports to China. One of the biggest is US soybeans.

3 - Soybean market crashes, prices go through the floor.

Here is where the speculation starts -

4 - Russia has large quantities of soybean processing capability, yet not enough actual production, and are a pretty large importer of soybeans.

5 - Cheap US soybeans going to Russia would greatly help the Russian economy, at the expense of US farmers.

So, is Trump starting a trade war with China in order to benefit Russia?

More importantly, is he doing so because his master told him to?

Hmmm...

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[jakee 1,254]

Quote

So, is Trump starting a trade war with China in order to benefit Russia?

Nah. If you could condense the process down to two bullet points he might have had a chance of thinking it up. A 5 step plan requires way too much linear thinking for Trump to follow to the end.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

jakee

Quote

So, is Trump starting a trade war with China in order to benefit Russia?

Nah. If you could condense the process down to two bullet points he might have had a chance of thinking it up. A 5 step plan requires way too much linear thinking for Trump to follow to the end.

Very true.

But Putin is smart enough to think it up. And he would benefit greatly from it.

And he may well have enough power over Trump to tell him what to do.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[GeorgiaDon 340]

Quote

etc. trump is right about one factor. Theft of intellectual property.

Of course, intellectual property rights was a very big part of the TPP. Which Trump pulled us out of. Because, why go with negotiation and diplomacy when you can have a war (trade war in this case) to convince the "base" you're a tough guy?

Don

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[Phil1111 908]

GeorgiaDon

Quote

etc. trump is right about one factor. Theft of intellectual property.

Of course, intellectual property rights was a very big part of the TPP. Which Trump pulled us out of. Because, why go with negotiation and diplomacy when you can have a war (trade war in this case) to convince the "base" you're a tough guy?

Don

You're right but more than that trump dosn't understand trade. Wen you put walls around your industry they become fat and lazy. Why compete when your market is protected from competition. TPP went on without America.
Under Trump, U.S. Companies Face a Rough Road on Trade
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/21/trump-nafta-trans-pacific-partnership-companies-trade-215851

Instead of protecting US companies access to markets and protection for patent rights...the US got nothing.

In addition trump and his supporters seem to believe that the US negotiators can out-negotiate the Chinese, the Mexicans, etc. That starting negotiations by setting out outrageous negotiation positions from the start. That a better end net deal is obtained.

"Trump’s legendary deal-making skills haven’t exactly helped—in March, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to gently explain to Trump, “without exposing [his] ignorance,” that Germany, as a member of that thing called the European Union, is unable to strike its own agreement with the U.S. (The tutorial reportedly went over Trump’s head.) Thus far, no additional agreements appear to be forthcoming . . . when asked on Tuesday for an update on any pending deals, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn had a whole lot of nothing to share:..

So where has Trump’s bluster gotten the U.S.? Not only has T.P.P. moved on without us, but Japan is now positioning itself as a free-trade champion that’s more than happy to take on a vacant leadership role. “Now in some parts of the world, there is a move toward protectionism, and I think the T.P.P.-11 is a major engine to overcome such a phenomenon,” Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Tuesday, calling the deal “epoch-making for Japan, as well as for the future of the Asia-Pacific region.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/01/trump-broke-up-with-the-world-and-the-world-is-moving-on

[GeorgiaDon 340]

If Trump continues in this vein, I think there is a very real danger that the US dollar will lose it's position as the currency of international trade. Much of our ability to influence financial markets, or to impose significant sanctions on "bad actors", comes from our ability to restrict their access to international banking, by denying them the ability to conduct business in $US. If, say, the Euro or the Yen were to become the international currency, it would not matter to "bad actors" that they can't convert their resources into $US.

Who knew that "making America great again" meant returning to economic irrelevance. I guess America was great in the 19th century, at least Roy Moore thought so.

Don

_____________________________________
Tolerance is the cost we must pay for our adventure in liberty. (Dworkin, 1996)
“Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.” (Yeats)

[SkyDekker 1,121]

Wonder if Ivanka's clothing line is impacted by any of these tariffs?

[AlanS 1]

billvon

>It is time to shut down trade with China.

And cripple two economies for the sake of . . . what? Revenge?

Revenge? Do you have trouble reading? Do me a favor and at least debate people in an honest way.

My reasons are clear in that post. They were just a few lines down. Do I need to repost it for you?

The original premiss for trading with China was to encourage it to be more free. That premiss has turned out to be false

further more.

If they help denuclearize North Korea I could change my mind. That is the bargain I would make.

No nukes in N. Korea = trade with us.
Nukes in North Korea = no trading with us.


Ten years ago ... it was unclear which way China was going, there were signs that things would improve, but from my observation the progress has regressed. Xi is now dictator for life, China is creating a "social credit" system to monitor and mold the behavior of all of it's citizen. Religious freedom, a measure of freedom in general is going in the wrong direction.

I'll provide this news article as just one example.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/world/asia/china-bans-bible-sales.html

Look at how they are slowly strangling democracy in Hong Kong. They have jailed book store owners for selling books critical of the government. People that speak out in support of democracy in Hong Kong are harassed by thugs from the government in Beijing. The once free press in HK is now starting to self censor.

Do you support this?


From my perspective, the experiment is over. I support shutting it down. We should build our own iPhones.

[gowlerk 1,903]

Quote

The original premiss for trading with China was to encourage it to be more free. That premiss has turned out to be false

Actually it's not hard to argue that China is much freer and open now than is was then. So I would say that the premise has been proven correct. Although I do think we would both agree that there is a trend in China to resist further freedoms.

So if you want to debate whether or not China has become more open since the days of Nixon and Kissinger you will probably find that you are the one with the incorrect theory.

The days when China needs the US market to grow are coming towards their end. It's economy is not fully modernized yet, and it suffers from more corruption that we have in the west in general and the US in particular. But it is poised to explode and be a dominant force soon.

Fortunately it's leadership is smart enough to wait out the unfortunate Trump years.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[Bob_Church 7]

AlanS

***

>It is time to shut down trade with China.

And cripple two economies for the sake of . . . what? Revenge?

Revenge? Do you have trouble reading? Do me a favor and at least debate people in an honest way.

My reasons are clear in that post. They were just a few lines down. Do I need to repost it for you?

The original premiss for trading with China was to encourage it to be more free. That premiss has turned out to be false

further more.

If they help denuclearize North Korea I could change my mind. That is the bargain I would make.

No nukes in N. Korea = trade with us.
Nukes in North Korea = no trading with us.


Ten years ago ... it was unclear which way China was going, there were signs that things would improve, but from my observation the progress has regressed. Xi is now dictator for life, China is creating a "social credit" system to monitor and mold the behavior of all of it's citizen. Religious freedom, a measure of freedom in general is going in the wrong direction.

I'll provide this news article as just one example.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/world/asia/china-bans-bible-sales.html

Look at how they are slowly straggling democracy in Hong Kong. They have jailed book store owners for selling books critical of the government. People that speak out in support of democracy in Hong Kong are harassed by thugs from the government in Beijing. The once free press in HK is now starting to self censor.

Do you support this?


From my perspective, the experiment is over. I support shutting it down. We should build our own iPhones.

We buy products made in ways that Upton Sinclair would find hard to believe but nobody cares, thinking it gets them dirt cheap computers and phones. First off, is it so important to buy cheaper and cheaper stuff that we'll live with people working under inhumane conditions. And the irony is that we don't save money in these things. We pay one way or the other. We put people into desperate situations so that we can save a few dollars then end up paying for it in terms of security, because desperate people do desperate things. It's amazing how cheaply Americans have sold their souls for electronic toys.

[billvon 2,384]

>Revenge? Do you have trouble reading?

I guess you didn't read my reply.

Yes, the stated reason was 'freedom.' The real reason was profit, of course. Both countries profited from increased trade.

And yes, China is getting more regressive. We can go two ways - continue trading with them and provide them with an example of a free country for their people (if not their leaders) to emulate. This has worked in many other countries.

Or we could try to cripple their economy; 'punish' them for not doing what we want. Do you think a regressive government would take this as a reason to become less regressive? Say "oh, the US is right! We are too draconian and will fix that right away." Or would they crack down further, and use the declining economy as the rationale for ever more draconian crackdowns on freedom within their country? "The US is attacking us in this escalating trade war! We must defend ourselves at all costs. The cost of a little freedom is a small price to pay for our defense."

>Do you support this?

Nope - just as I do not support a great many things other countries (including ours) are doing. Trying to "punish" them by crippling their economies will, IMO, just make the problems worse.

The reason we are starting this trade war, of course, has nothing to do with freedom or lack thereof in China. It is because the administration thinks that tariffs will improve profits in the US by restricting competitive imports.

[JerryBaumchen 1,047]

Hi Bill,

Quote

the administration thinks

IMO wrong term to use anytime, anywhere.

Tariffs are just The Trumper bloviating about whatever has crossed his mind within the last 15 minutes or so.

Trump will go into the ash heap of history & the global economy will continue.

Jerry Baumchen

[Bob_Church 7]

JerryBaumchen

Hi Bill,

Quote

the administration thinks

IMO wrong term to use anytime, anywhere.

Tariffs are just The Trumper bloviating about whatever has crossed his mind within the last 15 minutes or so.

Trump will go into the ash heap of history & the global economy will continue.

Jerry Baumchen

I know people, a lot of them, who debate Trump like he was just another President. But I just can't do it. He's an aberration who got put in the White House despite who he is for reasons I won't bring up again. But to me he's way too bizarre to try to work out how he really feels or what he's trying to do.

[AlanS 1]

gowlerk

Quote

The original premiss for trading with China was to encourage it to be more free. That premiss has turned out to be false

Actually it's not hard to argue that China is much freer and open now than is was then. So I would say that the premise has been proven correct. Although I do think we would both agree that there is a trend in China to resist further freedoms.

So if you want to debate whether or not China has become more open since the days of Nixon and Kissinger you will probably find that you are the one with the incorrect theory.

China did not gain access to the WTO (over the objection of many human-rights and labor groups) until the 1990s, so I think the fair comparison is between the early 1990s and now. Not the 1970s, since China didn't have much trade at all during the 80s.

Does anyone remember the Goddess of Liberty (自由女神; zìyóu nǚshén), in Tiananmen Square? It is very hard to make the case that China today is closer to being a democracy now than it was then.

See attached photo to refresh you memories.

Immediately before and after Tiananmen Square in 1989, the Communist party of China had a dilemma with it's own citizen demanding more freedom.

The reason they wanted to join the WTO is they bet that if they gave them economic freedom, but continued to deny them human rights or political freedom they could placate their populous and maintain control.

The reasoning then President Clinton used (over the objections of human right and labor groups) was to let them into the WTO is once the population of China gained economic freedom, they would demand more freedom of information and free speech and thought etc.

For a while things were heading (very slowly) in that direction. But then China built the Great Firewall, and erased within it walls all history of Tiananmen Square. Over the past 10 years it has fine tuned how it controls information and now it is reaching the point that the Internet within China rather than allowing for the free flow of information, is becoming the instrument by which George O'Wells 1984 is slowly coming to life.

All Chinese citizen are now tracked in a database, and are rated (i.e given an social credit score) based on loyalty to the government. And this score determine if you can travel, or even leave the country and if you get harassed by the authorities or not.

In my mind we lost the bet, regarding more trade with China bring more freedom to it's citizens. The Goddess of Liberty will never stand in Tiananmen Square. A small replica of this statue now stands only in a forgotten corner of Portsmouth Square in San Francisco.

The experiment is over. It is time to shut it down.

[billvon 2,384]

At first it looked like the Trump family businesses would be affected by the tariff, since much of the stuff they sell is made in China.

Fear not! Exemptions have been made to keep the First Family from feeling the effects of any tariffs - and Ivanka's clothing line will, as a result, not feel any impact from the new tariffs. Tariffs are for little people.

[billvon 2,384]

And today Trump launched a trade war with . . . . Canada.

Because reasons.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

billvon

And today Trump launched a trade war with . . . . Canada.

Because reasons.

For national security reasons.

yup.

[gowlerk 1,903]

The Canada-US free trade agreement in 1988 gave the US first dibs on Canadian oil supplies. That was a big deal at the time and Canada played that card for all it could. At the present time it's not so vital to US interests. That is going to make a difference in negotiations over a new NAFTA agreement.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

I agree. Taking it easy on China and Russia while taking a hard line stance with your traditional allies is honest bargaining.

should I put an /s somewhere?

[billvon 2,384]

>Taking it easy on China and Russia while taking a hard line stance with your traditional allies
>is honest bargaining.

I didn't see Trudeau out hacking the DNC servers during the campaign.

[rushmc 18]

billvon

And today Trump launched a trade war with . . . . Canada.

Because reasons.

it

You been a chicken little cheerleader on this site many times. It won't mean anything again despite your warmest hopes!

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[gowlerk 1,903]

rushmc

***And today Trump launched a trade war with . . . . Canada.

Because reasons.

it

You been a chicken little cheerleader on this site many times. It won't mean anything again despite your warmest hopes!


Funny, Yoda Rush being cryptic!

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[billvon 2,384]

>it You been a chicken little cheerleader on this site many times.

it You sad you no get FOX News on your side any more!