EVs, Aspirations vs Reality

[Phil1111 911]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

A RR Griffon or Napier Sabre (3500HP) might actually fit.  We know a Merlin does.

For the uninitiated: Jay Leno's Rolls-Royce Packs a 27-Liter V-12 From a WWII Fighter Plane  

[JoeWeber 2,299]

2 hours ago, lippy said:

Sodium ion?!?!?!  Guess you don't give a fuck about the poor children working in the salt mines...You won't be so smug when half the country is growing goiters because their iodized salt was taken away in service of your virtue signalling, and the other half is sitting here eating bland-ass potato chips!

That's right. But if the system is going to work there are going to be some losers. Now's the time to be strong, stay the course, and stock up on Pringles.

[normiss 622]

1 hour ago, Phil1111 said:

For the uninitiated: Jay Leno's Rolls-Royce Packs a 27-Liter V-12 From a WWII Fighter Plane  

While Jason Mamoa has an electric Rolls Royce Phantom

Edited February 19 by normiss

[gowlerk 1,913]

3 hours ago, kallend said:

A RR Griffon or Napier Sabre (3500HP) might actually fit.  We know a Merlin does.

How about this diesel powered beauty for trucking? https://planehistoria.com/napier-nomad

Napier_Nomad_I_East_fortune_front-1.webp

Edited February 19 by gowlerk

[JoeWeber 2,299]

11 hours ago, gowlerk said:

How about this diesel powered beauty for trucking? https://planehistoria.com/napier-nomad

Napier_Nomad_I_East_fortune_front-1.webpUnavailable

Just to be obnoxious, the car rental joint didn't have the medium car size I usually get so they gifted me with a Dodge Charger. I figured gas guzzler for sure. Nope, it's a beast when passing but sips the juice. The times they are a changing.

[brenthutch 383]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3252621/ev-honeymoon-over-demand-decelerates-and-carmakers-struggle
 

just as I said….Sorry Olof 

[headoverheels 291]

3 hours ago, brenthutch said:

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3252621/ev-honeymoon-over-demand-decelerates-and-carmakers-struggle
 

just as I said….Sorry Olof 

Yes, your linked article says that demand is still increasing.

 

 

[airdvr 197]

My son-in-law has a 10 year old Model S. ~90,000 miles.  Electric motor is dying.  Repairs cost more than the car is worth.  In my area a used S with similar mileage runs ~$20K

I would venture a guess to say the typical 10 yo ICE with 90K on the clock can also have a motor problem.  I don't think the replacement motor would be more than the vehicle is worth.

[SethInMI 145]

7 minutes ago, airdvr said:

I would venture a guess to say the typical 10 yo ICE with 90K on the clock can also have a motor problem.  I don't think the replacement motor would be more than the vehicle is worth.

Prob not.  My buddy bought a used Ford Flex last year, the water pump quit and that trashed the timing chain and the valves hit the pistons = new motor.  Dealer quote was ~13k to replace. He found a junkyard motor and I think got out for 4-5k.

But I would hesitate to extrapolate a early Model S to cars being sold now-a-days.  As volumes ramp up and competition improves the gouging that comes with repair should come down. 

I actually wonder what the equivalent replacement motor would be for a low volume luxury car (high end BMW or Mercedes) of 10 years ago.  Might be 20k.

[SethInMI 145]

I've been seeing this alarmist subject popping up for me lately, the latest from the NYT:
The gist is that BYD and Geely the big chinese automakers are going to be selling EVs & PHEVs in the US soon and will be cheaper than Tesla, and cheaper than any domestic / european ICE cars / SUVs.

This will flip the script of subsidy debates, instead of the conservatives griping over EV tax credits they will be clamoring for EV tariffs to push the price back up.  The liberals will be pinched, as they want to support EVs and also domestic labor, so strange bedfellows will likely be shacking up.

The big three won't be in as much trouble as one may think, as they sell pick-ups and large SUVs and those have a loyal (to ICE and brand) fan base.  

We live in interesting times.

[gowlerk 1,913]

9 minutes ago, SethInMI said:

The gist is that BYD and Geely the big chinese automakers are going to be selling EVs & PHEVs in the US soon and will be cheaper than Tesla, and cheaper than any domestic / european ICE cars / SUVs.

This will flip the script of subsidy debates, instead of the conservatives griping over EV tax credits they will be clamoring for EV tariffs to push the price back up.

BYD has recently said that they are not even considering entering the US market. A large reason for that is probably that imported EVs are not eligible for any US subsidies.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/byd-not-interested-united-states-182445977.html

[billvon 2,400]

2 hours ago, airdvr said:

I would venture a guess to say the typical 10 yo ICE with 90K on the clock can also have a motor problem.  I don't think the replacement motor would be more than the vehicle is worth.

Depends where it's done.  At the dealer it's going to be $12-$15K.  Almost no one pays that, of course, because there are cheaper alternatives (non-dealer shops.)

And by the same token, more and more non-dealer shops are servicing EVs now.  New Model S Tesla batteries run about $20K.  Specialty shops are now repairing them for far less; two recent repairs documented on Youtube were $750 and $5K respectively.

[wmw999 2,122]

Then again, my son's nissan maxima that had the engine toasted by an ingestion of water was deemed not worth fixing by the excellent garage i used at that time, because that model (mid-90s) was extremely hard and costly in time to work on. 

So maybe it's not just electric cars. 

Wendy P. 

[SethInMI 145]

45 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

BYD has recently said that they are not even considering entering the US market. A large reason for that is probably that imported EVs are not eligible for any US subsidies.

Interesting. Geely is going to sell in the US, through its Volvo subsidiary.  I suspect BYD will watch and see how that goes.
I read that the Biden administrations view of the tax credit rules for leases of EVs is pretty generous, and I suspect if Trump wins he could re-interpret them and close that door. 

[airdvr 197]

13 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

Then again, my son's nissan maxima that had the engine toasted by an ingestion of water was deemed not worth fixing by the excellent garage i used at that time, because that model (mid-90s) was extremely hard and costly in time to work on. 

So maybe it's not just electric cars. 

Wendy P. 

Do you remember the mileage?  Makes a huge difference.

[wmw999 2,122]

It was reasonable; certainly under 100,000. He drove it during street flooding, instead of pulling off. He was 18 or something like that. This was over 20 years ago

Wendy P. 

 

[jakee 1,255]

On 2/19/2024 at 5:24 PM, gowlerk said:

How about this diesel powered beauty for trucking? https://planehistoria.com/napier-nomad

Napier_Nomad_I_East_fortune_front-1.webpUnavailable

That's cool. Interestingly Diesel engines are enjoying huge success in the light aircraft market right now - Diamond alone sell a heck of a lot of them. They're heavier than equivalent hp aircooled petrols, but with a much lower fuel burn and JetA is 60% the cost of Avgas (at least over here).

[gowlerk 1,913]

2 minutes ago, jakee said:

That's cool. Interestingly Diesel engines are enjoying huge success in the light aircraft market right now - Diamond alone sell a heck of a lot of them. They're heavier than equivalent hp aircooled petrols, but with a much lower fuel burn and JetA is 60% the cost of Avgas (at least over here).

If a usable STC for a diesel engine was available for our 182s we would probably switch. It may not happen though because the type is already kind of nose heavy.  

[brenthutch 383]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-cancels-work-ev-moves-staff-ai-project-bloomberg-reports-2024-02-27/
 

Apple joins the ranks of EV failures.

“Apple (AAPL.O), has canceled work on its electric car, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, a decade after the iPhone maker kicked off the project...its end comes as global automakers cut back their investments in electric vehicles, whose demand has dropped significantly.”

[SethInMI 145]

On 2/27/2024 at 10:07 AM, airdvr said:

My son-in-law has a 10 year old Model S. ~90,000 miles.  Electric motor is dying.  Repairs cost more than the car is worth.  In my area a used S with similar mileage runs ~$20K

I would venture a guess to say the typical 10 yo ICE with 90K on the clock can also have a motor problem.  I don't think the replacement motor would be more than the vehicle is worth.

I'm curious what your SIL is going to do.  Did he buy the Model S new?  Is he going to stay with Tesla for his next car? Go to a different EV brand? Or go back to ICE?

[airdvr 197]

5 minutes ago, SethInMI said:

I'm curious what your SIL is going to do.  Did he buy the Model S new?  Is he going to stay with Tesla for his next car? Go to a different EV brand? Or go back to ICE?

Purchased new.  He sold the S to Carvana.  Already owned a Y.  Got another Y for his wife.

Feel bad for the person who buys this from Carvana.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

4 hours ago, airdvr said:

Purchased new.  He sold the S to Carvana.  Already owned a Y.  Got another Y for his wife.

Feel bad for the person who buys this from Carvana.

Why? Did he snake them on the trade? Was it justifiable because the Carvana guy looked like Hunter Biden?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

On 2/27/2024 at 9:07 AM, airdvr said:

My son-in-law has a 10 year old Model S. ~90,000 miles.  Electric motor is dying.  Repairs cost more than the car is worth.  In my area a used S with similar mileage runs ~$20K

I would venture a guess to say the typical 10 yo ICE with 90K on the clock can also have a motor problem.  I don't think the replacement motor would be more than the vehicle is worth.

Depends on the car.

The Porsche Cayenne (SUV) had a hell of a problem with cylinder scoring.
There wasn't any admission from Porsche (not surprising), but a fair amount of 1st & 2nd gen models had motors that would self destruct somewhere between 75k & 100k miles. Apparently it was a manufacturing defect (which is why Porsche was silent) and the cylinder walls weren't finished properly.

It was silent until it was too late. 1st there would be an increase in oil consumption, then there would be a ticking from the motor. By that time, the block was destroyed. It's an alusil block, so there's no boring it out, and sleeving the bores is almost as expensive as a replacement motor (which could also be susceptible to scoring).
You couldn't even inspect for it. The scoring started down at the bottom, so by the time it was visible to a borescope (even with the piston at BDC), it was too late.

The depreciation on them was pretty severe, so by the time they got to that point, they weren't worth a whole lot ($20k-$30k) and fixing or replacing the motor was not worth it.

[airdvr 197]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

Why? Did he snake them on the trade? Was it justifiable because the Carvana guy looked like Hunter Biden?

I don't know the details of the Carvana sale.  I can only assume the current troubles are not known to them.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

12 minutes ago, airdvr said:

I don't know the details of the Carvana sale.  I can only assume the current troubles are not known to them.

Why the assumption?