EV sales collapse

[billvon 2,400]

31 minutes ago, ryoder said:

Guess who is embracing EVs?

Amish communities are using a surprising new kind of vehicle to travel long distances: ‘It’s a lot quicker’

And they can provide their own charging, thus keeping it within the community.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi folks,

Looks like some people do not believe that there is a collapse in EV sales:  The South Korean automaker said in 2022 it would invest $5.5 billion to assemble electric vehicles and batteries in Ellabell, just west of Savannah. The site is supposed to have 8,100 employees and is slated to begin producing vehicles in 2025.

Hyundai and LG announce $4.3 billion plant in Georgia to build batteries for electric vehicles | AP News

The world, she is'a changing.

Jerry Baumchen

[billvon 2,400]

Some reality based data:

BEV sales over the past 5 quarters: 5.3%   5.6%   5.5%    6.5%   7.2% of all vehicles sold

Perhaps the "collapse" happened between 2Q2022 and 3Q2022 when it declined by .1%?

Graph:

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

1 minute ago, billvon said:

Some reality based data:

BEV sales over the past 5 quarters: 5.3%   5.6%   5.5%    6.5%   7.2% of all vehicles sold

Perhaps the "collapse" happened between 2Q2022 and 3Q2022 when it declined by .1%?

Graph:

Hi Bill,

While it is just a snapshot in time:  The only person in my extended family looking to buy a car will soon buy a new EV.

Jerry Baumchen

[ryoder 1,384]

The collapse is getting dire:
Electrek: Tesla Model Y is now the world’s best-selling car, first EV to do so

[billvon 2,400]

1 hour ago, JerryBaumchen said:

While it is just a snapshot in time:  The only person in my extended family looking to buy a car will soon buy a new EV.

We were recently driving by a car lot and the 8 year old asked "do people still buy those old-fashined gas cars?"

[brenthutch 383]

On 5/26/2023 at 6:14 PM, billvon said:

We were recently driving by a car lot and the 8 year old asked "do people still buy those old-fashined gas cars?"

Only >90% do.(sorry Olof)

Edited May 30, 2023 by brenthutch

[billvon 2,400]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Only >90% do.(sorry Olof)

Somehow I have a feeling that by the time the next generation is buying cars - that won't be true any more.  Since 2011, EV sales have grown an average of 73% a year.  They are currently responsible for 7.1% of all vehicle sales in the US, and that's even with today's batteries that all detractors claim are too expensive.  And those batteries are continuing to drop in price.

So if we maintain even a 50% growth year over year - far less than what we are actually seeing - those percentages will be:

2023 7.1%
2024 10.7%
2025 16%
2026 24%
2027 35.9%
2028 53.9%

[billeisele 122]

5 minutes ago, billvon said:

Somehow I have a feeling that by the time the next generation is buying cars - that won't be true any more.  Since 2011, EV sales have grown an average of 73% a year.  They are currently responsible for 7.1% of all vehicle sales in the US, and that's even with today's batteries that all detractors claim are too expensive.  And those batteries are continuing to drop in price.

So if we maintain even a 50% growth year over year - far less than what we are actually seeing - those percentages will be:

2023 7.1%
2024 10.7%
2025 16%
2026 24%
2027 35.9%
2028 53.9%

No doubt the demand for EVs is growing despite the negatives. 

Certainly you know that a sustained 50% growth rate is highly unlikely. Not just for EVs but for any big purchase item. But who knows, politics and so much more can change that.

One of our jumpers works for a company on EV buses. He's a great resource for current info.

[billvon 2,400]

6 minutes ago, billeisele said:

Certainly you know that a sustained 50% growth rate is highly unlikely. Not just for EVs but for any big purchase item.

A sustained 73% growth rate (i.e. the rate right now) is highly unlikely.  So I chose a much more conservative number - 50%.

As EVs get more popular, there will be factors that both accelerate and slow their adoption.

Accelerating their adoption:
-As more people get EVs, every store out there will start installing chargers to attract shoppers.  Many EV shoppers will decide where to shop based on the availability of chargers nearby.  Thus there will be fewer shortages of chargers.
-As US mining of lithium picks up, raw materials will start to get cheaper, leading to cheaper batteries.
-As LFP batteries replace lithium ion, the need for cobalt, nickel and magnesium will drop.
-As sodium batteries become more widespread, the demand for lithium will stop rising so rapidly.
-As more and more people get EVs, they won't be an unusual purchase any more, and people will buy what their co-worker/friend recommends and has driven (which more and more often will be an EV.)
-People will get annoyed when they are always passed by EV's, and will get an EV next time to avoid that.

Slowing their adoption:
-Once ownership hits about 30% (in 2027) gas prices will start to drop rapidly due to same supply/lower demand.
-Demand for traditional battery materials (lithium/cobalt mainly) will cause those prices to increase.

Which will dominate?  Too soon to say.  But there's more in the "more EV" category than the "less EV" category.

[billeisele 122]

9 minutes ago, billvon said:

A sustained 73% growth rate (i.e. the rate right now) is highly unlikely.  So I chose a much more conservative number - 50%.

As EVs get more popular, there will be factors that both accelerate and slow their adoption.

Accelerating their adoption:
-As more people get EVs, every store out there will start installing chargers to attract shoppers.  Many EV shoppers will decide where to shop based on the availability of chargers nearby.  Thus there will be fewer shortages of chargers.
-As US mining of lithium picks up, raw materials will start to get cheaper, leading to cheaper batteries.
-As LFP batteries replace lithium ion, the need for cobalt, nickel and magnesium will drop.
-As sodium batteries become more widespread, the demand for lithium will stop rising so rapidly.
-As more and more people get EVs, they won't be an unusual purchase any more, and people will buy what their co-worker/friend recommends and has driven (which more and more often will be an EV.)
-People will get annoyed when they are always passed by EV's, and will get an EV next time to avoid that.

Slowing their adoption:
-Once ownership hits about 30% (in 2027) gas prices will start to drop rapidly due to same supply/lower demand.
-Demand for traditional battery materials (lithium/cobalt mainly) will cause those prices to increase.

Which will dominate?  Too soon to say.  But there's more in the "more EV" category than the "less EV" category.

It will be interesting to watch. Politics can drive this either direction. I'll be "timing out" during the later years.

Only item (above) I didn't understand is, "People will get annoyed when they are always passed by EV's, and will get an EV next time to avoid that."

The ones that make the news are out of juice on the side of the road, on a flat bed being taken to a charging station, at the shop waiting for replacement battery packs or on fire. Plenty of things for owners to learn and bugs for the industry to fix.  In all fairness, there are tons out there that work just fine.

I'm waiting to see how they do during a hurricane evacuation when the normal 2-hour travel time increases to 5 hours, on the interstate, in 92 degree heat and 65% humidity, with mom and Rover in the back seat. That's a real thing on the East Coast. Then there's crossing the many partially flooded roads. The gas peeps don't mid drowning their vehicles in 12-16" of water. I have no clue if the EV's are sealed from water like that.

There are interesting articles on why hybrids are the best option. Again, it will be interesting to watch. I may put a couple F-150's in storage for 2050. I'll be croaked by then, the kids can enjoy them.

[billvon 2,400]

7 minutes ago, billeisele said:

The ones that make the news are out of juice on the side of the road, on a flat bed being taken to a charging station, at the shop waiting for replacement battery packs or on fire. Plenty of things for owners to learn and bugs for the industry to fix.  In all fairness, there are tons out there that work just fine.

I'm waiting to see how they do during a hurricane evacuation when the normal 2-hour travel time increases to 5 hours, on the interstate, in 92 degree heat and 65% humidity, with mom and Rover in the back seat. That's a real thing on the East Coast. Then there's crossing the many partially flooded roads. The gas peeps don't mid drowning their vehicles in 12-16" of water. I have no clue if the EV's are sealed from water like that.

There are interesting articles on why hybrids are the best option. Again, it will be interesting to watch. I may put a couple F-150's in storage for 2050. I'll be croaked by then, the kids can enjoy them.

Of course.  And far more gas cars won't start, or catch on fire, or sit in the shop for weeks waiting for a part.  Gas cars, for example, catch on fire 60x more than EV's per insurance companies (who are the people who really know.)  But gas car fires don't make the news, any more than "dog bites man" makes the news.

But what people will get sick of is being passed by EV's.  The Tesla Plaid has an under 2 second 0-60 time, and that will leave gas cars in the dust.  To a small segment of the population that is intolerable, and they will want that fastest car so they don't get passed.

Quote

I'm waiting to see how they do during a hurricane evacuation when the normal 2-hour travel time increases to 5 hours, on the interstate, in 92 degree heat and 65% humidity, with mom and Rover in the back seat.

In general they will do far better than a gas car.  An EV is very happy to be rolling along at 10mph running the A/C.  A gas car will run out of gas far more quickly.  To put it another way, if you start out in both cars with 300 miles of range, getting stuck in traffic will extend your range in the EV, decrease it in a gas car.

We already had a snowstorm near DC that caused one of those massive traffic jams.  Dozens of cars ran out of gas.  No reported problems with EVs.

Quote

Then there's crossing the many partially flooded roads. The gas peeps don't mid drowning their vehicles in 12-16" of water. I have no clue if the EV's are sealed from water like that.

I've driven through at least that much water with our Tesla during a recent rainstorm; a wave broke over the windshield at one point.  No problems other than the force of the water popped off the trim panels inside the wheel wells, which I had to pop back on.

There's a video of a Tesla driving through water so deep it is underwater.  It makes it through.  Needless to say it had a lot of maintenance problems after that - but if you are trying to get your family out of a flood, that's a big deal.  Gas cars can't do that.

[brenthutch 383]

7 hours ago, billvon said:

Somehow I have a feeling that by the time the next generation is buying cars - that won't be true any more.  Since 2011, EV sales have grown an average of 73% a year.  They are currently responsible for 7.1% of all vehicle sales in the US, and that's even with today's batteries that all detractors claim are too expensive.  And those batteries are continuing to drop in price.

So if we maintain even a 50% growth year over year - far less than what we are actually seeing - those percentages will be:

2023 7.1%
2024 10.7%
2025 16%
2026 24%
2027 35.9%
2028 53.9%

“If if and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas”

BTW you forgot to account for the nearly 20% of EV buyers who go back to gasoline powered vehicles 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

7 hours ago, billvon said:

...Slowing their adoption:
-Once ownership hits about 30% (in 2027) gas prices will start to drop rapidly due to same supply/lower demand.

By that point, EVs will be so established, that the main people 'celebrating' this will be classic car owners/collectors.

I would expect that the tech will evolve enough that most of the other advantages of ICE cars will be diminished.

Gas would have to be REALLY cheap (or electricity really expensive) for EVs to be cheaper to run than ICE cars
Especially when you include maintenance in 'operating costs' (not just the price of the gas to run it).

[gowlerk 1,912]

7 hours ago, billeisele said:

The ones that make the news are out of juice on the side of the road, on a flat bed being taken to a charging station, at the shop waiting for replacement battery packs or on fire.

Those are all possible scenarios, but mostly are memes you have seen, not news.

[lippy 771]

3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

Those are all possible scenarios, but mostly are memes you have seen, not news.

Surprising how many people get their 'news' from Facebook these days.  

Most of my LinkedIn contacts are oil and gas.  Several people have posted, with no sense of irony, both:

- video of an EV on fire as evidence of how dangerous and evil EV's are

- video of an oil tank on fire or a blow-out with the caption 'be safe out there guys'.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

13 hours ago, billeisele said:

It will be interesting to watch. Politics can drive this either direction. I'll be "timing out" during the later years.

Only item (above) I didn't understand is, "People will get annoyed when they are always passed by EV's, and will get an EV next time to avoid that."

The ones that make the news are out of juice on the side of the road, on a flat bed being taken to a charging station, at the shop waiting for replacement battery packs or on fire. Plenty of things for owners to learn and bugs for the industry to fix.  In all fairness, there are tons out there that work just fine.

I'm waiting to see how they do during a hurricane evacuation when the normal 2-hour travel time increases to 5 hours, on the interstate, in 92 degree heat and 65% humidity, with mom and Rover in the back seat. That's a real thing on the East Coast. Then there's crossing the many partially flooded roads. The gas peeps don't mid drowning their vehicles in 12-16" of water. I have no clue if the EV's are sealed from water like that.

There are interesting articles on why hybrids are the best option. Again, it will be interesting to watch. I may put a couple F-150's in storage for 2050. I'll be croaked by then, the kids can enjoy them.

Hi Bill,

Re:   I'll be "timing out" during the later years.

This where I am at.  As I was coming home from my morning coffee run today, I was behind a Prius Prime.  I started running the numbers in my head.  At my age, replacing my gas cars [ one is for sale ] for an EV makes no financial sense to me.  

Jerry Baumchen

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

Hi folks,

The future is closer than ever:  Automakers are rushing to keep up with the global shift toward less polluting vehicles and to help in other ways to combat climate change.

Toyota, Daimler Truck, Hino, Mitsubishi Fuso joining forces in ecological technology | AP News

Daimler owns Freightliner, a local truck mfr.  Back in the 60's, while in college, I worked in Freightliner's test lab; I was a part-time employee.  I really liked that job.

Jerry Baumchen

[wmw999 2,122]

A friend of mine just bought a new electric car; she wanted the new technology. She’s 90! While I’m not down with lots of consumption, I just have to admire her zest for new experiences. It’s probably part of what keeps her alive and healthy

Wendy P. 

[normiss 622]

17 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

The future is closer than ever:  Automakers are rushing to keep up with the global shift toward less polluting vehicles and to help in other ways to combat climate change.

Toyota, Daimler Truck, Hino, Mitsubishi Fuso joining forces in ecological technology | AP News

Daimler owns Freightliner, a local truck mfr.  Back in the 60's, while in college, I worked in Freightliner's test lab; I was a part-time employee.  I really liked that job.

Jerry Baumchen

One thing that has impressed me about Daimler Mercedes, they share their tech with the companies under their umbrella. Chrysler got lucky with the vans and still manufactures them.

Daimler has some good experience with their electric commercial vehicles, as does Freightliner now:

https://northamerica.daimlertruck.com/emobility/

[SkyDekker 1,122]

10 hours ago, brenthutch said:

BTW you forgot to account for the nearly 20% of EV buyers who go back to gasoline powered vehicles 

That just makes the growth numbers more impressive...but I wouldn't expect you to understand that.

[billvon 2,400]

3 hours ago, wmw999 said:

A friend of mine just bought a new electric car; she wanted the new technology. She’s 90!

Yeah, an 82 year old widow down the street from us just bought one of the Volvo EV's.  (I know this because I am her tech support these days.)

[JoeWeber 2,299]

2 hours ago, billvon said:

Yeah, an 82 year old widow down the street from us just bought one of the Volvo EV's.  (I know this because I am her tech support these days.)

When you branch out to Oregon I want in! I have me a shit pot full of old start cart batteries and I was thinking of building my own EV but maybe I'll just wait.

[JerryBaumchen 1,048]

6 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

When you branch out to Oregon I want in! I have me a shit pot full of old start cart batteries and I was thinking of building my own EV but maybe I'll just wait.

Hi Joe,

Here you go:  White Lightning (car) - Wikipedia

White Zombie - Watch The World's Original Fastest Electric Car (pluginmotorwerks.com)

Jerry Baumchen

[JoeWeber 2,299]

11 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Here you go:  White Lightning (car) - Wikipedia

White Zombie - Watch The World's Original Fastest Electric Car (pluginmotorwerks.com)

Jerry Baumchen

Then maybe you can do it. Makes me think back to the old rainy and windy days. We'd bust out a round, put on a ProTec, get the other guys to duct tape us to a creeper, throw out the round and see who made it further down the runway before crashing and burning. Somehow, that damn South African Eddie (you know who) always seemed to make it into the ditch before the State Hwy and win. The good old days, for sure.

Edited May 31, 2023 by JoeWeber