Ukraine

[Phil1111 915]

4 minutes ago, olofscience said:

This is Putin's war, ordinary Russians won't support it. Unfortunately their voices are silenced for now. What would they gain? Natural resources? They already have a lot of those - oil and gas remember?

Now China just wants western dominance to end, so they'll root for russia to take the west down a peg, but they won't sacrifice anything important for Putin either.

Ordinary Russians have little idea as to whats going on. Imagine 10 supercharged FOX news organizations with a hundred Tucker Carlsons non-stop propaganda.

Give credit to the couple hundred Russians arrested in the 50 or so cities in the last two days. Arrested for protesting the war. They are the real heroes.

[Phil1111 915]

53 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

That doesn't solve the problem, Phil. It's just changes the time and location.  

Putin enjoys every tactical advantage right now.

-$600 billion in cash reserves.

- He controls the current battlefield.

-He has complete control over Russian news and Russia including its nuclear forces.

- He can turn off the gas to the EU in ten minutes and over 90% of Finland's gas and over 50% of the EU's gas comes from Russia. Europeans would be freezing in the dark within four days. They currently only have about a three days reserve in storage.

If you're surrounded by the enemy, on his territory, tactically disadvantaged. You smile walk away and come back when you know you'll win.With general Mattis right behind you.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,929]

What I don't really understand is why the rivalry between Russia and the west even exists any longer. Both Ukraine and Russia should be part of NATO by now. I can only assume that after the cold war ended and Stalinism collapsed elements of the KGB et al just could not accept moving on to the very prosperous future that the Russian people deserve and could have had.

Edited February 25, 2022 by gowlerk

[Phil1111 915]

3 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

What I don't really understand is why the rivalry between Russia and the west even exists any longer. Both Ukraine and Russia should be part of NATO by now. I can only assume that after the cold war ended and Stalinism collapsed elements of the KGB et al just could not accept moving on to the very prosperous future that the Russian people deserve and could have had.

IMO all Communist regimes become very corrupt over time. Especially so if the inside elements of their regimes have their base of power under threat. When President Gorbachev opened up the Soviet union to the vote. Insiders began to establish their kleptocracy and Putin rose to the top.

NATO extended an olive branch to Russia about 20 years ago with "observer status".

But Putin's need for power, money and domination of the weak. Put an end to that about five years later.

President XI is currently going all in as far as power and corruption goes. He recently amended its constitution to allow his personal power to expand.

[brenthutch 388]

41 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

No, Brent, we do not need forward bases arrayed in an aggressive posture. We don't want world war and bluffing is for chumps. 

 

Not in an aggressive posture, more of a deterrence.  Think Berlin Brigade.  

[airdvr 200]

The results of this are a forgone conclusion.  Ukraine will fall by the end of next week.  But what then?  Putin will still have to deal with the resistance in Ukraine.  Meanwhile we lay sanctions on the people of Russia making their lives just a bit more miserable.  But we seem to be afraid to go after Putin himself with sanctions.

Our only strategic move is to strengthen the NATO borders.

[BIGUN 1,075]

42 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Keith, we don't need to deploy divisions and threats. We need to boil frogs, seems to me.

And, Russia continues its march into Kyiv. ~500 military and civilians already dead and we're going to engage in a session of Overton's Window?  You know how Russia works, we're seeing it play out. Putin is a peanut-bowl theorist. This is just the first peanut until he eats the whole bowl. How long do we wait? How many must die?

Sorry, Joe. Boiling frogs isn't a decisive strategy.  

[gowlerk 1,929]

2 minutes ago, airdvr said:

Putin will still have to deal with the resistance in Ukraine.

That remains to be seen. I am not convinced that a year from now there will be significant resistance. On one level I hope there is. But at the same time I fear the brutality of the repression it will bring. It's not like Russia has not ruled over Ukraine before, they may just find a way to cope. 

[airdvr 200]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

That remains to be seen. I am not convinced that a year from now there will be significant resistance. On one level I hope there is. But at the same time I fear the brutality of the repression it will bring. It's not like Russia has not ruled over Ukraine before, they may just find a way to cope. 

Unfortunately I have to agree.  I hope we are secretly helping the resistance with lawyers, guns and money.

[gowlerk 1,929]

2 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

This is just the first peanut until he eats the whole bowl.

There is NATO to consider. If a NATO member is attacked, or even threatened Kaliningrad would be the first logical target for the west. That would be hard to defend.

[JoeWeber 2,330]

Brent,

 

It is an aggressive move and a waste of money better spent on long term strategic initiatives. We need to diplomatically consolidate all of the energy sources in the western world into a new alliance and work together. A good start, and a hell of a lot cheaper and destructive to the environment than a build up to war, would be an immediate start to the disassembly of the Nord Stream 2 line and facilities. That would convey real seriousness; vastly more seriousness than adding infrastructure designed to fight old wars.

 

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by JoeWeber

[olofscience 423]

57 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Imagine 10 supercharged FOX news organizations with a hundred Tucker Carlsons non-stop propaganda.

Younger people don't watch TV.

[JoeWeber 2,330]

9 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

And, Russia continues its march into Kyiv. ~500 military and civilians already dead and we're going to engage in a session of Overton's Window?  You know how Russia works, we're seeing it play out. Putin is a peanut-bowl theorist. This is just the first peanut until he eats the whole bowl. How long do we wait? How many must die?

Sorry, Joe. Boiling frogs isn't a decisive strategy.  

 

We wait a long time and, yes, many more will die. We take solace in the fact that a limited land grab in the Ukraine will cause fewer deaths than a protracted, if somewhat contained, larger Eastern European conflict. 

We need to learn that these sorts of things aren't won after the fact by applying threats of military action. So, yes, it is time to boil frogs.

[wmw999 2,149]

One thing to consider is that Putin is personally quite insulated from danger, either personal or political. That’s the thing about tyrants. He’s not going to be voted out by a dissatisfied population.

So we have to wait for a bloodied internal coup, a loss of enough money that he can’t pay off any more protectors, or his death. The second is the best one, and it’s on the backs of the Russian people. As are the others.

Wendy P. 

[Phil1111 915]

3 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

It is an aggressive move and a waste of money better spent on long term strategic initiatives. We need to diplomatically consolidate all of the energy sources in the western world into a new alliance and work together. A good start, and a hell of a lot cheaper and destructive to the environment than a build up to war, would be an immediate start to the disassembly of the Nord Stream 2 line and facilities. That would convey real seriousness; vastly more seriousness than adding infrastructure designed to fight old wars.

Yes Joe, you're right. The west doesn't even to spend more on weapons. Energy independence. Help the Ukrainian people in every way. It seems as if some have already forgot that some illiterate tribesmen forced the mighty Soviet Union into a humiliating defeat.  Build a picket fence around Putin, pressure,pressure,pressure and time will boil away his aggressive attitudes. Thats if a Tokarev in a dark basement hallway in the Kremlin doesn't set things right.

 

3 minutes ago, wmw999 said:

One thing to consider is that Putin is personally quite insulated from danger, either personal or political. That’s the thing about tyrants. He’s not going to be voted out by a dissatisfied population.

So we have to wait for a bloodied internal coup, a loss of enough money that he can’t pay off any more protectors, or his death. The second is the best one, and it’s on the backs of the Russian people. As are the others.

Wendy P. 

Putin is smarter than some tyrants. He spreads his favors and money far and wide. But Russians and Ukrainians are both proud and intelligent people. They know that a cancer is not cured by ivermectin .

[gowlerk 1,929]

12 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Energy independence.

Well.....making peace or some semblance of it with Iran would reduce dependency on Russian energy. Sigh.....so many compromises.

[SkyDekker 1,147]

3 hours ago, gowlerk said:

He is the only leader willing to risk a third world war over Ukraine.

Risk? He already started it.

 

[sfzombie13 307]

1 hour ago, gowlerk said:

This is not correct. Most Russians support the goal, although they may not support having a war unless it goes relatively well.

thousands of russians protesting in the streets and getting arrested would disagree with you on that.

[sfzombie13 307]

damn double posting bullshit...

Edited February 25, 2022 by sfzombie13

[brenthutch 388]

29 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Brent,

It is an aggressive move and a waste of money better spent on long term strategic initiatives. We need to diplomatically consolidate all of the energy sources in the western world into a new alliance and work together. A good start, and a hell of a lot cheaper and destructive to the environment than a build up to war, would be an immediate start to the disassembly of the Nord Stream 2 line and facilities. That would convey real seriousness; vastly more seriousness than adding infrastructure designed to fight old wars.

We have already deployed the 173rd ABCT  to Latvia.  And the 82nd to Poland.  If we don’t adapt a more forward leaning posture, Putin will start picking off the Baltic states, after all do you really think the West has the stomach to start WWIII over Estonia?  If he attacked US installations that would be a different story.

[SkyDekker 1,147]

2 hours ago, metalslug said:

Even if, by some miracle, a western coalition were to deal significant military damage, I'd bet dollars to donuts that China would then aid Russia as a contingency, and once that happens there's no contest.

I don't think China is at all helped by a renewed cold war or active war. I wouldn't quickly assume China and Russia are aligned.

[SkyDekker 1,147]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

No, Brent, we do not need forward bases arrayed in an aggressive posture. We don't want world war and bluffing is for chumps. What we do need are terminals and ports dedicated to energy. What we do need is an energy alliance that includes a long term plan to supply gas and crude to Europe while we work coterminously to wean the western world from fossil fuels. We need to do whatever is realistic over the next decade to shrink the Russian energy market and the Chinese products market. 

Keith, we don't need to deploy divisions and threats. We need to boil frogs, seems to me.

I think we need both. But very much agree with your first point. Global Warming is not much of a factor without people to suffer from the consequences.

[gowlerk 1,929]

21 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I don't think China is at all helped by a renewed cold war or active war. I wouldn't quickly assume China and Russia are aligned.

I would agree. They are not natural allies, they are rivals who currently have reasons to do business with each other.

[Phil1111 915]

19 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I don't think China is at all helped by a renewed cold war or active war. I wouldn't quickly assume China and Russia are aligned.

China likes a dependent supplier of energy, minerals, etc. That is in a weaker bargaining position given that the west avoids Russian sales. Thats why China "lends" to all the "shithole" countries in Africa. Countries that nobody else wants to lend to.

[JoeWeber 2,330]

1 hour ago, airdvr said:

Unfortunately I have to agree.  I hope we are secretly helping the resistance with lawyers, guns and money.

Finally something for which we are in agreement. I am all in on sending many plane loads of lawyers to Russia. But instead of guns and money send Amazon Gift Cards.