2020 climate fails

[murps2000 86]

14 minutes ago, headoverheels said:

Ummm...no.   The net is (1-.314)*1.331 = 0.914, so (1-.914)*100 = 8.6% down net.

I got 8.7 but your math pretty much seems to check out. A 33.1% increase on the 68.6% left over after the 31.4% decrease puts you back at 91.3% of whatever you started with.

[wmw999 2,121]

8 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Like I said a couple times already, I no longer read Brent's nonsense. But that doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching all y'all shredding him.

Nah, I don’t even enjoy that. 
Wendy P. 

[brenthutch 383]

48 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

From your link:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. “

Maybe start with reading lessons before venturing to more difficult concepts?

 

 

45 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

If you start with 100 and decrease it by 25% and then increase by 30% do you think you got to 5% growth? 

Because that math works out to 97.5. Last time I checked 97.5 is less than 100. 
 

Maybe after those basic reading lessons, some basic math might be in order. 

I guess we will just have to wait a few more days to see which one of us is right 

[SkyDekker 1,122]

8 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

 

I guess we will just have to wait a few more days to see which one of us is right 

The words and math presented won’t change. 
 

This statement just shows you really are just a troll. 

[kallend 1,623]

15 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

The words and math presented won’t change. 
 

This statement just shows you really are just a troll. 

It's possible to be both clueless AND a troll.

[kallend 1,623]

On 1/6/2021 at 9:36 PM, brenthutch said:

 

I guess we will just have to wait a few more days to see which one of us is right 

News Alert Jan. 8, 8:33 a.m. EST

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December, reflecting a significant slowdown in the labor market as coronavirus cases surge

[brenthutch 383]

24 minutes ago, kallend said:

News Alert Jan. 8, 8:33 a.m. EST

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December, reflecting a significant slowdown in the labor market as coronavirus cases surge

That is not good, but GDP and the jobs number do not necessarily correlate (though they often do).  If GDP is positive in Q4 and continues into 2021, the date of the recovery will be in the summer of 2020. But I digress 

https://setpublisher.com/downloads/jbasv16a13/

“Abstract: In 2013, and following from 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis (AR5) claiming the concentration of CO₂, air temperature, and water vapor go up and down together; the air can hold more water vapor and the increased warming by water vapor adds to the warming by CO₂. Pictorially: CO₂↑, T↑, WV↑. Although no scientific evidence is offered, this concept has become widely accepted because of the fear that CO₂ might increase the Earth’s temperature to dangerous levels. In developing research to evaluate the IPCC claims, it is noted that the temperature at the Equator is always higher than that in the Arctic and Antarctic. The Gas Law of Charles/Gay-Lussac states that at constant pressure the volume of a gas is inversely proportional to the absolute temperature. Thus by applying this law, the CO₂ concentration is always higher at the Poles than at the Equator. Thus, when moving from the Poles to the Equator, temperature goes up, CO₂ goes down and water vapor goes up. Pictorially: T↑, WV↑, CO₂↓. The warming effects of CO₂and water vapor do not add; they oppose each other. This is a robust conclusion based on hard numbers. It is opposite to the claim by the IPCC and proves there are errors in the assumptions.”

 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by brenthutch

[Phil1111 911]

On 1/6/2021 at 7:09 PM, kallend said:

As previously noted, you are either totally clueless about how time series work, or are deliberately trolling.

 

On 1/6/2021 at 7:14 PM, wmw999 said:

Ding ding ding

Wendy P. 

ding,ding,ding.

Why do you keep making the same mistakes in the interpretation of statistics again and again. Percentage changes can be a little confusing at times. But your mistakes keep getting pointed out. Then you go right back to them.

Perhaps this may help. "The nation has recouped 12.3 million, or 56%, of the 22 million net jobs shed in March and April as restaurants and other businesses have reopened, recalling furloughed workers, and new hiring has picked up" This is from USA today. Yesterdays  news, i.e January 7, 2021

If 44% of job losses have still not been recovered. It would be very difficult if not impossible to have a higher GDP with that reduced labor base. Absent a miracle increase in productivity. Then this is today's news: U.S. lost 140,000 jobs in December, the first decline since April.

I find graphs the easiest way to understand changes and here is one of US GDP for 2020 to November..   In order to keep things simple to understand. It shows US GDP immediately prior to the Covid pandemic at 22.01 Trillion. It shows GDP to the end of November of $21.41. So a net decline of $600 billion.

Of course this ignores FED QE of $700 billion and increased net Covid stimulus of $3.1 trillion.

I hope you understand borrowing and stimulus through debt is not GDP.

In Summary, $3.8 trillion is the increased debt for the US in 2020. 450,000 Americans died through covid in 2020. The US unemployment rate left 9.8 million more unemployed.

 

[billvon 2,400]

Well, sure, the economy is in the shitter and 2020 is now tied with 2016 as the hottest year ever.

But at least we finished the big, beautiful wall that keeps out all illegal immigrants, the deficit is zero, Obamacare has been repealed and replaced,  COVID-19 was stopped in its tracks in April, Trump's supporters are enabling a smooth transfer of power and Trump is leaving office with the respect and admiration of the country for a job well done.

Right?

[kallend 1,623]

31 minutes ago, billvon said:

Well, sure, the economy is in the shitter and 2020 is now tied with 2016 as the hottest year ever.

But at least we finished the big, beautiful wall that keeps out all illegal immigrants, the deficit is zero, Obamacare has been repealed and replaced,  COVID-19 was stopped in its tracks in April, Trump's supporters are enabling a smooth transfer of power and Trump is leaving office with the respect and admiration of the country for a job well done.

Right?

Sure, in the alternate, looking glass universe that rushmc, Brent and Ron inhabit.

[kallend 1,623]

On 1/6/2021 at 3:06 PM, brenthutch said:

 

As Paul Harvey used to say....the rest of the story.  Even with the Black Swan event of the COVID pandemic, the US economy will have grown in 2020.

https://www.prweb.com/releases/amidst_stay_at_home_orders_americans_are_driving_50_less_due_to_covid_19/prweb17519253.htm

So people driving less during the recession has NOTHING to do with reduced CO2 emissions, eh?
 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by kallend

[brenthutch 383]

Just now, kallend said:

https://www.prweb.com/releases/amidst_stay_at_home_orders_americans_are_driving_50_less_due_to_covid_19/prweb17519253.htm

So people driving less during the recession has NOTHING to do with reduced C)2 emissions, eh?
 

 

I’m sure it had SOME impact, but our CO2 emissions were dropping long before that mostly (but not entirely) due to the fracking revolution and the switch from coal to natural gas.  The COVID-19 related reductions will disappear as the country rebounds in 2021.  The most cost effective way to continue the decline in our CO2 emissions is to continue the trend of replacing coal with natural gas.

[brenthutch 383]

The devastating toll  COVID took on the worlds economy didn’t seem to slow the increase in atmospheric CO2.  2019 CO2 level was around 410ppm, 2020 was 415ppm  as of last November.  The COVID crash didn’t even.....(pardon the expression)....bend the curve 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Edited January 8, 2021 by brenthutch

[kallend 1,623]

On 1/6/2021 at 9:36 PM, brenthutch said:

 

I guess we will just have to wait a few more days to see which one of us is right 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/01/28/gdp-2020-economy-recession/

Jan. 28, 2021 at 8:14 a.m. CST

The U.S. economy shrank by 3.5 percent last year as the novel coronavirus upended American business and households, making 2020 the worst year for U.S. economic growth since 1946.

[brenthutch 383]

We did have a recovery in the third and fourth quarter but with Biden killing tens of thousands of jobs in his first 48 hours, it doesn’t look like the recovery will continue.

[tonyhays 86]

37 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

We did have a recovery in the third and fourth quarter but with Biden killing tens of thousands of jobs in his first 48 hours, it doesn’t look like the recovery will continue.

I'm sure Trump's mismanagement of covid-19 and the killing of tens of thousands of actual people had nothing to do with it.   Nothing at all.

[brenthutch 383]

3 minutes ago, tonyhays said:

I'm sure Trump's mismanagement of covid-19 and the killing of tens of thousands of actual people had nothing to do with it.   Nothing at all.

People where still dying of COVID when the economy grew at 33% and 9% in the third and fourth quarter respectively.  I’m no Trump fan, but he did hand off a growing economy and two vaccines.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

On 1/6/2021 at 7:36 PM, brenthutch said:

 

I guess we will just have to wait a few more days to see which one of us is right 

So, which one of us was right?

[jakee 1,254]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

People where still dying of COVID when the economy grew at 33% and 9% in the third and fourth quarter respectively.  I’m no Trump fan, but he did hand off a growing economy and two vaccines.

How many people were dying in the third quarter? How many in the 4th quarter? How many now? (And bonus question, how many in April when your source said the virus was fading away?)

 

And by the way, be serious - Trump was not responsible for the development of a vaccine.

[billvon 2,400]

53 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

We did have a recovery in the third and fourth quarter but with Biden killing tens of thousands of jobs in his first 48 hours, it doesn’t look like the recovery will continue.

Trump killed an average of 15,000 jobs a week.  Let's see how Biden does in comparison.

[brenthutch 383]

1 minute ago, billvon said:

COVID-19 killed an average of 15,000 jobs a week.  Let's see how Biden does in comparison.

FIFY

[brenthutch 383]

5 minutes ago, jakee said:

And by the way, be serious - Trump was not responsible for the development of a vaccine.

Of course he wasn’t personally responsible for the vaccine anymore than he was personally responsible for COVID.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

Ah yes, the : Trump is responsible for everything good and COVID is responsible for everything bad argument. Brought to you by the party of taking responsibility.

[billvon 2,400]

9 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

FIFY

Ah!  So Trump isn't responsible for anything bad that happens during his presidency.  I will remember that the next time you bring up something bad that happens in the next four years.

[jakee 1,254]

5 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Of course he wasn’t personally responsible for the vaccine anymore than he was personally responsible for COVID.

And that's as deep as your analysis goes, is it?