2020 climate fails

[kallend 1,621]

[brenthutch 383]

43 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

In the US the NBER determines the beginning and end of recessions. The NBER announced the start of the recession, they have not yet announced the end of the recession.

Are you arguing you know better than the relevant committee at the NBER? Or do you believe they will soon announce the recession is over?

In the same way they decided a recession has begun.  They will back date it to the rebound in GDP.  With a 33% growth in the third quarter and 9% in the fourth, it will be hard to argue the recession didn’t end last summer, especially if the economy continues to grow. Given that vaccines are now here and there is around a trillion dollars of pent up demand sitting in Americans’ checking accounts there is no reason to think it won’t.

[brenthutch 383]

5 minutes ago, kallend said:

As Paul Harvey used to say....the rest of the story.  Even with the Black Swan event of the COVID pandemic, the US economy will have grown in 2020.

[kallend 1,621]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/economy/recession-economy-coronavirus-nber/index.html

[brenthutch 383]

25 minutes ago, kallend said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/economy/recession-economy-coronavirus-nber/index.html

Yes the recession began in February, the recovery began last summer, when the books are closed on 2020, the US economy will have grown.  An economy that is growing is, by definition, NOT in recession. 

Depending on CNN for your economics education explains your failure to grasp this basic principle.

(Though something tells me that a lightbulb will go off in your head on January 20 and you will say the economy has never been better)

Edited January 6, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

“In some countries — such as the United States — SUVs have been classified as "light trucks"”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sport_utility_vehicle

 

Classified as such to skirt CAFE laws and well after SUVs came into being. But sure, keep digging, I am sure some of your MAGA friends think you know what you are talking about.....

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Yes the recession began in February,

Wasn't trump president then? Didn't Kallend say the US had entered a recession during trump's tenure? Wasn't that the statement you disagreed with?

[brenthutch 383]

22 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Wasn't trump president then? Didn't Kallend say the US had entered a recession during trump's tenure? Wasn't that the statement you disagreed with?

No, Kallend said “That's because under Trump the economy has gone into the worst recession in 90 years.”

I just pointed out that the US is not in a recession, certainly not the worst in 90 years and the unemployment rate at the end of Trump’s term is lower that the unemployment rate at the end of Obama’s first term.  

Edited January 6, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

No Kallend said “That's because under Trump the economy has gone into the worst recession in 90 years.”

I just pointed out that the US is not in a recession, certainly not the worst in 90 years and the unemployment rate at the end of Trump’s term is lower that the unemployment rate at the end of Obama’s first term.  

And under Trump the US has certainly gone into a recession. Your objection was that Kallend clearly didn't know what a recession is. Though the entity tasked with declaring recessions in the US has the US in a recession. 

A recession you said was pretty much impossible while also saying Tesla was going bankrupt. Not sure your established track record on economic matters is very good......

[brenthutch 383]

12 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

And under Trump the US has certainly gone into a recession.

“Went into” past tense. With a growth rate of 33% in the third quarter and a projected growth rate of 9% in the fourth quarter and an unemployment rate lower than that of most of the Obama administration, it is hard to argue that we are still in recession.  (But don’t let that stop you)

BTW it is worth noting that Kallend claimed the reduction in CO2 was a result of the massive depression we are in and not due to the fracking revolution and natural gas.

Edited January 6, 2021 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 2,294]

6 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Americans aren’t buying cars, they are buying SUVs and big pickup trucks.  That is why Tesla didn’t show up on the list of the top 25 selling VEHICLES.  As far as market cap goes, Tesla stock is much more popular than their cars. 

Don't quit your day job for venture capitalism.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

“Went into” past tense.

Clearly, the entering of the recession happened in the past.

 

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

 it is hard to argue that we are still in recession.

Nobody here is arguing that. The official body has not yet declared the recession over, but it may certainly do so retroactively. None of which invalidates the statement Kallend made. 

It is indeed hard to argue with people who put more value in feels than facts.

[brenthutch 383]

6 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Clearly, the entering of the recession happened in the past.

 

Nobody here is arguing that. The official body has not yet declared the recession over, but it may certainly do so retroactively. None of which invalidates the statement Kallend made. 

It is indeed hard to argue with people who put more value in feels than facts.

Kallend made the argument that the reason US CO2 emissions are at the same level as they were in 1993 was because of the massive Trump recession, I say it is because of fracking and the switch from coal to natural gas.  It would seem you agree with Kallend.

Edited January 7, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I say it is because of fracking and the switch from coal to natural gas.  It would seem you agree with Kallend.

No. You said there wasn't a recession and that Kallend didn't know what a recession was. 

I think the reduction in CO2 is more complex than due to a single variable. Trump's trade disputes are probable much higher on the blame list, though they likely also aided the recession. Manufacturing was in a technical recession in 2019, with declines starting Q1 2019 and decline hasn't stopped since.

(yes  Q3 2020 saw a huge increase, but that has to be taken with the Q2 2020 massive collapse. Netted against each other it is still a decline.)

 

Q4 numbers are going to be telling. 2020 Q3 GDP even after the massive increase is still on a downward trend for now.

[brenthutch 383]

7 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

No. You said there wasn't a recession and that Kallend didn't know what a recession was. 

I think the reduction in CO2 is more complex than due to a single variable. Trump's trade disputes are probable much higher on the blame list, though they likely also aided the recession. Manufacturing was in a technical recession in 2019, with declines starting Q1 2019 and decline hasn't stopped since.

(yes  Q3 2020 saw a huge increase, but that has to be taken with the Q2 2020 massive collapse. Netted against each other it is still a decline.)

 

Q4 numbers are going to be telling. 2020 Q3 GDP even after the massive increase is still on a downward trend for now.

Atlanta fed projects 8.9% in the fourth quarter so even if they are off by half GDP growth in 2020 will still be positive.  No Recession and unemployment rate STILL lower than the average during the Obama years.

BTW arguing trucks vs SUVs,  “technical” recessions and  equivocating on the reason for the reduction in CO2 is a bit like counting the number of angels dancing on a pin.

Edited January 7, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

7 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Atlanta fed projects 8.9% in the fourth quarter

No they don't.

[brenthutch 383]

1 minute ago, SkyDekker said:

No they don't.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.9 percent on January 5, up from 8.6 percent on January 4”

Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

[kallend 1,621]

31 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.9 percent on January 5, up from 8.6 percent on January 4”

Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

As previously noted, you are either totally clueless about how time series work, or are deliberately trolling.

[wmw999 2,116]

5 minutes ago, kallend said:

As previously noted, you are either totally clueless about how time series work, or are deliberately trolling.

Ding ding ding

Wendy P. 

[brenthutch 383]

50 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

No. You

 

50 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

(yes  Q3 2020 saw a huge increase, but that has to be taken with the Q2 2020 massive collapse. Netted against each other it is still a decline.)

 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent.
 

You seem to have the same difficulty with math as Kallend does, so let me explain, third  quarter GDP grew at 33.1% second quarter GDP decreased by 31.4%.  When netted against each other it comes out to + 1.7%.  In other words third quarter growth more than made up for second quarter contraction.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter

[brenthutch 383]

47 minutes ago, kallend said:

As previously noted, you are either totally clueless about how time series work, or are deliberately trolling.

Just what does that have to do with the Atlanta fed’s projection of Q4 growth.  I said “Atlanta Federal Reserve projects Q4 growth of 8.9%”.  SkyDekker said “no they didn’t”. I showed that that is exactly what they said and linked to their website showing as much.  Maybe you should contact the Atlanta Federal Reserve and let them know that they are clueless.  Or perhaps it is you who is in need of a clue?

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.9 percent on January 5, up from 8.6 percent on January 4”

Don’t you ever get tired of being wrong?

From your link:

“GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. “

Maybe start with reading lessons before venturing to more difficult concepts?

 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

You seem to have the same difficulty with math as Kallend does, so let me explain, third  quarter GDP grew at 33.1% second quarter GDP decreased by 31.4%.  When netted against each other it comes out to + 1.7%.

If you start with 100 and decrease it by 25% and then increase by 30% do you think you got to 5% growth? 

Because that math works out to 97.5. Last time I checked 97.5 is less than 100. 
 

Maybe after those basic reading lessons, some basic math might be in order. 

[headoverheels 291]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

 

You seem to have the same difficulty with math as Kallend does, so let me explain, third  quarter GDP grew at 33.1% second quarter GDP decreased by 31.4%.  When netted against each other it comes out to + 1.7%.  In other words third quarter growth more than made up for second quarter contraction.

 

Ummm...no.   The net is (1-.314)*1.331 = 0.914, so (1-.914)*100 = 8.6% down net.

[gowlerk 1,903]

15 minutes ago, headoverheels said:

Ummm...no.   The net is (1-.314)*1.331 = 0.914, so (1-.914)*100 = 8.6% down net.

Like I said a couple times already, I no longer read Brent's nonsense. But that doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching all y'all shredding him.