Where have all the deficit hawks gone?

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

RonD1120

***That will be pretty hard on moral in the National Guard and the reserves I would imagine. Long hot and dusty days are probably alright with them if it is serving an important need. But since it is only a publicity stunt for the dotard there will likely be some resentment.

I am interested in the logistics of this decision. Basically, AFAIK, NG and Reservists served one weekend/month and two weeks each year.

Typically, yes.

But for this sort of 'call up', they are ordered to serve as long as they are needed.
Which means that these soldiers are being taken from their homes and lives and families and jobs, being sent to the border indefinitely.

For a publicity stunt by the Mango Mussolini.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[Bob_Church 7]

It will be interesting to see how and if this affects the availability of heroin in the US.

[BIGUN 1,053]

jcd11235

***As would be the case in any country. It's a median score; not an average.

Because it's a symmetric distribution, 100 is both the median and mean, er, average.

I'm sure that sounded good to you.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Bob_Church

It will be interesting to see how and if this affects the availability of heroin in the US.

It won't.

Heroin (and cocaine and meth) are compact, low volume. Virtually none of it is smuggled in a manner that 'tightening the border' or "building a wall" would affect.

You can shove several thousand dollars worth of heroin up your butt and cross through a Port of Entry into the US (no, I'm not kidding).

You can put several million dollars worth of heroin into a hidden compartment in a semi truck and drive it through a Port of Entry into the US.

https://www.wola.org/analysis/four-common-misconceptions-u-s-bound-drug-flows-mexico-central-america/

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[Bob_Church 7]

NIDA put the number of addicts in the US at 626,000 in 2016 and rising. Keeping that many addicts serviced on a daily basis is going to take a lot of heroin, not a few baggies shoved up someone's ass now and then.

[jcd11235 0]

BIGUN

******As would be the case in any country. It's a median score; not an average.

Because it's a symmetric distribution, 100 is both the median and mean, er, average.

I'm sure that sounded good to you.

The median is the value of the "middle-valued" observation. If we had a sample of 101, we would order the observations by value, and the observation in the 51st position would be the median. If our sample size was even, 100 for instance, we would order the observations, and the median would be the midpoint between the values of the observations in the 50th and 51st positions.

The mean is defined as the sum of all observations divided by the count of all observations.

Distributions have shapes. Samples tend to be shaped like the distributions of the populations from which they come. (When this isn't the case, we say the sample is not representative of the population.) The shape of a sample is most easily observed with a histogram.

Some distributions are asymmetric. If you look at the distribution of values greater than the median (or mean), it has a different shape than the distribution of values less than the median (or mean). Most gamma distributions, for example, are not symmetric.

Some distributions are symmetric. Examples include the uniform distribution, where any value between maximum value a and minimum value b is equally likely. Another example is the normal distribution, whose shape is the famous bell curve. For such distributions, the distribution of the values greater than the median is a mirror-image of the shape of the distribution of values less than the median. A property of symmetric distributions is that the mean and the median are equal.

Intelligence quotient scores have an approximately normal distribution that is symmetric, thus their mean and median are the equal.

TL;DR
Because it's a symmetric distribution, 100 is both the median and mean, er, average.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[gowlerk 1,912]

Bob_Church

NIDA put the number of addicts in the US at 626,000 in 2016 and rising. Keeping that many addicts serviced on a daily basis is going to take a lot of heroin, not a few baggies shoved up someone's ass now and then.

The estimated annual US heroin consumption is 70 tons. About two truckloads. That's not a difficult amount for organized gangs to smuggle through ports in concealed compartments 10 or 20 pounds at a time. Sure, they'll lose some to law enforcement. But they'll manage to easily supply the market.


70 tons may not sound like much. But it's enough to give each of those 626,000 users a little more than 100 grams each.



Hint, heroin dosage is highly variable depending on tolerance built up from usage. But 15 mg is considered to be a high dose for intravenous use. (if using pure diacetylmorphine, it's proper name)

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Bob_Church

NIDA put the number of addicts in the US at 626,000 in 2016 and rising. Keeping that many addicts serviced on a daily basis is going to take a lot of heroin, not a few baggies shoved up someone's ass now and then.

Did you read the article I linked?

It's estimated that the entire US consumption of heroin for a year could fit into two shipping containers.

Most (almost all) of that is smuggled into the US via Ports of Entry.

It's a lot more than "now and then."

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[Bob_Church 7]

You're quoting WOLA? There's nothing much to say after that.

[jakee 1,254]

RonD1120

OANN is a source for news without commentary.

OANN was founded with the stated goal of serving a conservative news agenda, and the CEO of the company has ordered newsdesks to run pro-Trump coverage and minimise or undermine the Russia probe.

Hell, they even ran a news report that Roy Moore had swept to victory in the special election

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[gowlerk 1,912]

Bob_Church

You're quoting WOLA? There's nothing much to say after that.

Read my earlier post and do the math. 626,000 is a lot of people. But heroin is very potent. How many grams of full strength smugglers grade heroin do you think the average user can go through in a year? Two truckloads is plenty.

If it makes you feel any better it's estimated that Russians use almost twice that amount. And Europe three times. The Afghans by population have the world's worst opiate problem. China is often thought of as a police state. But opium use there is also very high compared to North America.

The real problem here in the last decade is not heroin, but prescription pain killers. It is the greed of the legal drug companies that has paved the path to the increasing death rate. Yes, they are dying from heroin laced with fentanyl, but they got started at the doctors office.

Always remember the brave children who died defending your right to bear arms. Freedom is not free.

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

Bob_Church

You're quoting WOLA? There's nothing much to say after that.

It was one of the first results of a quick search. I'm not terribly familiar with the site. There were a lot of other results that said the exact same thing.

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+does+heroin+come+into+the+us&oq=How+does&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i60j69i57j69i60l2j0.3868j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The important parts are what was quoted in the story:

Quote

The vast majority of the drug that enters from Mexico does so through “ports of entry”—the 48 official land crossings through which millions of people, vehicles, and cargo pass every day. “Heroin seizures almost predominantly are through the port of entry and either carried in a concealed part of a vehicle or carried by an individual,” then-U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Gil Kerlikowske told a congressional committee last year. “We don’t get much heroin seized by Border Patrol coming through, I think just because there are a lot of risks to the smugglers and the difficulty of trying to smuggle it through,” he said.

“The most common method employed by Mexican TCOs [Transnational Criminal Organizations] involves transporting drugs in vehicles through U.S. ports of entry (POEs),” the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) reported in its 2016 National Drug Threat Assessment. “Illicit drugs are smuggled into the United States in concealed compartments within passenger vehicles or commingled with legitimate goods on tractor trailers,” according to the document.

Heroin is small in volume. “It’s a relatively small amount—40-50 tons, we think—of heroin that feeds the heroin epidemic in the United States,” Gen. John Kelly, then the commander of U.S. Southern Command, told a Senate committee in 2015. The amount has probably increased somewhat today, but still takes up little space: all the heroin consumed in the United States in an entire year could probably fit into two 40-foot shipping containers.

Now, imagine the contents of those containers broken up into tiny amounts and scattered across vehicles, luggage, and cargo shipments and sent through 48 land crossings, plus airports, over the course of 365 days. The difficulty explains why in 2015, the DEA reported that U.S. authorities managed to seize 6.8 tons of heroin, an amount equal to perhaps one-seventh of Gen. Kelly’s demand estimate.

You may not like the overall source of the article, but can you refute the quotes above?

Sources like:

Then-U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Gil Kerlikowske told a congressional committee last year.

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) reported in its 2016 National Drug Threat Assessment

Gen. John Kelly, then the commander of U.S. South Command, told a Senate committee in 2015.

I have yet to hear anyone with any real knowledge say that Trump's "Border Wall" is anything but a publicity stunt.

And I'm still waiting for him to make Mexico pay for it.

"There are NO situations which do not call for a French Maid outfit." Lucky McSwervy

"~ya don't GET old by being weak & stupid!" - Airtwardo

[BIGUN 1,053]

OK. I see where we're at...

Where the frequency distribution is symmetrical, the arithmetic mean, median, mode and midrange are likely to be quite similar - therefore, on er, average.

However, if the frequency distribution is skewed (in any way/its always skewed) the midrange will often be closest to the "tail" followed by the arithmetic mean. The mode will be furthest from the "tail" and the median will be in between the mode and the arithmetic mean (er, average).

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[headoverheels 291]

RonD1120

I am interested in the logistics of this decision. Basically, AFAIK, NG and Reservists served one weekend/month and two weeks each year.

My cousin thought that that would be the extent of his involvement. He got called up and ended up doing 3 tours in Afghanistan.

[jcd11235 0]

BIGUN

Where the frequency distribution is symmetrical, the arithmetic mean, median, mode and midrange are likely to be quite similar.

Yes. In a sample the equality is approximate. In the population, the equality is exact.

BIGUN

However, if the frequency distribution is skewed … the midrange will often be closest to the "tail" followed by the arithmetic mean. The mode will be furthest from the "tail" and the median will be in between the mode and the arithmetic mean

You'd need to specify to which tail you're referring, right or left, but it sounds like you get the general idea.

BIGUN

(in any way/its always skewed)

Be careful not to attribute the effects of random noise in the sample to unconfirmed characteristics of the population.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[ryoder 1,384]

headoverheels

***
I am interested in the logistics of this decision. Basically, AFAIK, NG and Reservists served one weekend/month and two weeks each year.

My cousin thought that that would be the extent of his involvement. He got called up and ended up doing 3 tours in Afghanistan.

I had a friend who was running out of money in college.
In desperation, he joined the Navy Reserve.
When they showed him the choice of occupations, he chose Hospital Corpsman.
(Hey, I'll get to spend all day in an air-conditioned hospital on dry land, right?
Jump ahead many months and...he found himself in a fox-hole in the desert, attached to a Marine Corps unit in Desert Storm.

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[BIGUN 1,053]

Quote

but it sounds like you get the general idea.

Whew. That's good to know.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[billvon 2,400]

>It will be interesting to see how and if this affects the availability of heroin in the US.

It won't. You can move tons a day via one of the tunnels they discover about once a year near Tijuana.

[SkyDekker 1,122]

DanG

Your constant posts about how Americans are stupid and ignorant are getting old.

Amazing how in all that time they aren't getting any smarter.

[Justincblount 4]

billvon

>They only voted with him on everything else.

Like what?

Like the $80b increase to military spending, like giving him more warrantless spying powers, like appointing people to departments they famously want to get rid of. Sure they give token "resistance" to Trump on certain things, but a lot of the time it's because they think he isn't right wing enough. They want him to be more hawkish towards Russia, Iran and North Korea. I gave up on democrats and republicans a long time ago, they're all sellouts on both sides, so it didn't really interest me to see exactly how they're voting in the house and senate these days.

[kallend 1,623]

BIGUN

******Your constant posts about how Americans are stupid and ignorant are getting old.

Hey, fully 50% of Americans have IQ
As would be the case in any country. It's a median score; not an average.

Oooh, I never thought of that!

Actually there are minor differences between nations:

iq-research.info/en/average-iq-by-country

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Phil1111 910]

kallend

*********Your constant posts about how Americans are stupid and ignorant are getting old.

Hey, fully 50% of Americans have IQ
As would be the case in any country. It's a median score; not an average.

Oooh, I never thought of that!

Actually there are minor differences between nations:

iq-research.info/en/average-iq-by-country

Well minor, or none.
Why People Keep Misunderstanding the 'Connection' Between Race and IQ
https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/05/why-people-keep-misunderstanding-the-connection-between-race-and-iq/275876/

[jcd11235 0]

BIGUN

Quote

but it sounds like you get the general idea.

Whew. That's good to know.

Good. So now you understand why, given the context, your comment "It's a median score; not an average."was nonsensical?

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[jcd11235 0]

kallend

*********Your constant posts about how Americans are stupid and ignorant are getting old.

Hey, fully 50% of Americans have IQ
As would be the case in any country. It's a median score; not an average.

Oooh, I never thought of that!

Actually there are minor differences between nations:

iq-research.info/en/average-iq-by-country

Wow! That range is greater than -2.7/+0.5 standard deviations!

Those are more than minor differences. They are much larger than anything I would have expected. In fact, I'd be hesitant to trust those numbers without first trying to understand what steps were taken to limit cultural bias in the tests.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[BIGUN 1,053]

Well, that took me down quite the bunny trail. Looked up the author; which then took me to "Intelligence related to income and climate," which then took me to Monaco's highest per-capita income, along with Singapore's highest average IQ & income stats, which had an interesting .14 per 100,000 homicides, only to somehow wind up in Nicaragua's gun laws.

I realize this is very off-topic, but Nicaragua developed a National Defense Ministry Registry in which all guns must be registered and police are allowed to inspect your storage & inventory. Their now per 100,000 per-capita homicide rate is 4.68 with a gun ownership rate of 7.7 guns per 100. Now, if we compare that to its neighbor Honduras (which has some fairly restrictive gun laws; but a constitutional right to carry and bear) has a per-capita homicide rate of 60.00 with a gun ownership rate of 9.9–11.24 guns per 100. Yet, Honduras has a law of "each firearm must be licensed and no more than 5 licenses per citizen" and a National Registry still has an estimated 500,000 illegal guns.

No real conclusions, just informative reading and sharing.

Thanks for the morning read.

https://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_Honduras

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.