Air France Jet Missing

[quade 3]

More detailed report of what is known as of Monday night.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31040692/

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[quade 3]

Quote

short of flying into a lenticular cloud at that height, or the anvil top of the CB's at flight level 420 (which is the tops the radar indicated...typical in that region this time of year), which the aircraft had no business being around if that was the case, it would take a hell of a lot of turbulance at that flight level to rip apart an airbus. Now, at lower levels, you can consider other things to down a plane (IE: microbursts, etc), but this was not the case. There's only so much that can go on at the upper levels of a long range cruise.

More than one person is saying it's a possibility.

The aircraft, according to reports, was in cruise at or around FL350. Additionally, that part of the ocean, again according to reports, isn't covered by radar.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[JohnMitchell 14]

Quote

Additionally, that part of the ocean, again according to reports, isn't covered by radar.

I'll bet $50 it ain't, not by ATC radar, not by weather radar.

I could tell you how far off the coast our radar sees, but I'd have to kill you.

I could just give you a hint and beat you up a little.

[quade 3]

I find it interesting that the telemetry from the planes doesn't seem to include a GPS tag. If it did, they'd know exactly where to start searching based on the last bit they received.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[LyraM45 0]

I meant satellite when I said radar.... no data out that far, unfortunately. I'm not saying it wasn't weather all together. It very well could be the case, but if it turns out that the pilot flew right into cloud tops that they were well briefed on before they left (and should be aware of since its VERY typical in that area this time of year), then I consider that more pilot error than anything else.

I don't know how airfrance does their stuff, and what route they were filed on, but usually even dispatchers who file the routes after looking at weather do a pretty good job at avoiding storms that are forecasted big enough to effect the flight of an airbus. If that was done and a big daddy t-storm popped up out of no where and they were caught in it before they knew it and then all these events followed, then that is truely unfortunate and will draw a lot of attention to aviation weather forecasting in the future.

Apologies for the spelling (and grammar).... I got a B.S, not a B.A. :)

[JohnMitchell 14]

Quote

I find it interesting that the telemetry from the planes doesn't seem to include a GPS tag. If it did, they'd know exactly where to start searching based on the last bit they received.

That really does make you wonder why they don't. I wondered for years why ELT's weren't made to encode GPS positions in their broadcasts. Now they do. Someday we'll direct traffic over the ocean using GPS position reports much as we use radar now. Until then . . . when you go out over the water, you're on your own.

We take the miracle of modern technology for granted so much. Something like this really brings it home that we aren't the masters of everything yet.

[MikeForsythe 0]

Quote

So I take it you believe this is a terrorist act?
That doesn't make a lot of sense given what we already know.

I believe it is possible. Why do you think that it is not? To not consider it an option would be negligent. The manifest covered 32 countries. If you wanted to make a global statement, that would be significant. It would also answer a lot of questions.

Time and pressure will always show you who a person really is!

[quade 3]

Quote

I believe it is possible. Why do you think that it is not? To not consider it an option would be negligent. The manifest covered 32 countries. If you wanted to make a global statement, that would be significant. It would also answer a lot of questions.

Possible? Yes, certainly. The first thing I'd leap to? No. Not by a long shot.

The reason is what we know about the route, weather and telemetry received.

Additionally, we would have heard from some organization claiming the attack. Terrorism only works when the people you're terrorizing know you've struck at them. Otherwise it's just an unsolved mystery.

As serious and intriguing as terrorist attacks are on aircraft, the truth is there's a lot more "normal" reasons that airplanes crash and a batch of those have to do with engineering issues and unfortunately those happen far more frequently.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[MikeForsythe 0]

Quote

Additionally, we would have heard from some organization claiming the attack. Terrorism only works when the people you're terrorizing know you've struck at them. Otherwise it's just an unsolved mystery.

But this is not unusual. Sometimes it is several days before a group claims responsibility.

While I don't think it is a high possibility, it is on my list until proven other wise. The other reason that I bring it up in this conversation is becasue no one else has.

Quote

As serious and intriguing as terrorist attacks are on aircraft, the truth is there's a lot more "normal" reasons that airplanes crash and a batch of those have to do with engineering issues and unfortunately those happen far more frequently.

I don't think "normal" applies here. You have a new aircraft (four years) with no apparent maintenance/safety issues. You have what looks like a catastrophic failure of such magnitude that you have zero communication from the crew, no voice, no squawk.......nothing. From FL35 even with a catastrophic failure the crew would have had at least two and a half minutes before impact.

Time and pressure will always show you who a person really is!

[Rookie120 0]

Quote

From FL35 even with a catastrophic failure the crew would have had at least two and a half minutes before impact.

Not much they could do if it broke up in flight for some reason.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[shropshire 0]

Quote

Quote

From FL35 even with a catastrophic failure the crew would have had at least two and a half minutes before impact.

Not much they could do if it broke up in flight for some reason.

Could have turned some points....

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[MikeForsythe 0]

Quote

Not much they could do if it broke up in flight for some reason.

True, but the simple fact the plane was sending data streams tells me it was not to that point yet. You have a plane that is experiencing electrical system failures and loosing cabin pressure and you are over the middle of the Atlantic and you don't declare an emergency or ident?

Time and pressure will always show you who a person really is!

[Rookie120 0]

Quote

You have a plane that is experiencing electrical system failures and loosing cabin pressure and you are over the middle of the Atlantic and you don't declare an emergency or ident?

Declare to who? The way it sounds he was out of radio range. Ident to what? Out of radar covergae also. Plus if it was something really bad like a break up or something the pilots would be to busy trying to regain control of the plane

If you find yourself in a fair fight, your tactics suck!

[shropshire 0]

Would he have been out of range of ANY BODY on the Guard frequency? There must have been a boat or another plane somewhere nearby ...

Line of sight Radio Horizon from say 30K is about 210 miles (or there about)

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[jumpwally 0]

brilliant,,just brilliant

smile, be nice, enjoy life
FB # - 1083

[bfilarsky 0]

They sure wouldn't be able to get a hit on their transponder, but they AFAIK they should be in contact with someone over their HF radio (they use those over the ocean rather than a VHF radio due to their longer range). If that's the case (not really sure what the range on those things is) then for some reason they couldn't get a mayday out - whether they were just dealing with the problem (aviate, navigate, communicate) or they lost the power to that radio, or they had an inflight breakup, or perhaps something else.

[quade 3]

Quote

Would he have been out of range of ANY BODY on the Guard frequency? There must have been a boat or another plane somewhere nearby ...

Line of sight Radio Horizon from say 30K is about 210 miles (or there about)

I'm wildly speculating, but if the pilots really wanted to communicate they probably could have worked out something, but that probably wasn't their priority at the time.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[MikeForsythe 0]

Quote

I'm wildly speculating, but if the pilots really wanted to communicate they probably could have worked out something, but that probably wasn't their priority at the time.

Yes they could have as they have several systems available to them including HF, VHF (emergency channel monitored by about everyone) and SATCOM. Clearly they were within communications range as their FANS and ACARS were being received. As for being a priority, I don't buy it. They are quite capable of flying and talking at the same time. Look at the flight that went into the Hudson, the captain was in command and made several communications all within the 30 seconds or so that he had and that was only from 4,000'.

Time and pressure will always show you who a person really is!

[wildcard451 0]

Quote

Quote

I'm wildly speculating, but if the pilots really wanted to communicate they probably could have worked out something, but that probably wasn't their priority at the time.

Yes they could have as they have several systems available to them including HF, VHF (emergency channel monitored by about everyone) and SATCOM. Clearly they were within communications range as their FANS and ACARS were being received. As for being a priority, I don't buy it. They are quite capable of flying and talking at the same time. Look at the flight that went into the Hudson, the captain was in command and made several communications all within the 30 seconds or so that he had and that was only from 4,000'.

I'm glad you don't buy it. There's not a lot of facts to sell here. The pilot that went into the Hudson still had a controllable airplane. Who knows what happened to these guys.

[airtwardo 6]

Quote

Quote

I'm wildly speculating, but if the pilots really wanted to communicate they probably could have worked out something, but that probably wasn't their priority at the time.

Yes they could have as they have several systems available to them including HF, VHF (emergency channel monitored by about everyone) and SATCOM. Clearly they were within communications range as their FANS and ACARS were being received. As for being a priority, I don't buy it. They are quite capable of flying and talking at the same time. Look at the flight that went into the Hudson, the captain was in command and made several communications all within the 30 seconds or so that he had and that was only from 4,000'.

I'm I correct in the understanding that the electric problems and loss of cabin pressure was an 'automated' communication that the aircraft itself sent out?

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[wmw999 2,123]

That's what I understood from what I was reading. At about 1:30 the pilots signed off with Brazil ATC, expecting to hook up with Senegalese ATC in about an hour.

From Wikipedia (heavily footnoted with references in brackets -- this is pretty up-to-the-minute information)

Quote

The last verbal contact with the aircraft was at 01:33 UTC, when it was near waypoint INTOL (lat/long provided) located 565 kilometres (351 mi) off Brazil's north-eastern coast. The crew reported that they expected to enter Senegalese-controlled airspace at waypoint TASIL (lat/long provided) within 50 minutes, and that the aircraft was flying normally at an altitude of 35,000 feet (11,000 m) and a speed of 840 kilometres per hour (450 kn).[6][8] The aircraft left Brazil Atlantic radar surveillance at 01:48 UTC. The last contact with the aircraft was at 02:14 UTC,[6] four hours after take-off, when up to a dozen automatic ACARS messages[9] indicated faults in various electrical systems and also a possible pressurization problem.[8][10] The automated exchange went on for about four minutes.[11] According to Air France CEO Pierre-Henri Gourgeon these faults created a "totally unprecedented situation in the plane".[10] At that time, the probable location of the aircraft was about 100 kilometres (54 nmi) from the waypoint TASIL, assuming that the flight had been proceeding as planned.

No one from the airline seems to think there's going to be a happy ending. And I'm sure the hope is that they'll find something out, rather than just losing everything.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[quade 3]

Quote

I'm I correct in the understanding that the electric problems and loss of cabin pressure was an 'automated' communication that the aircraft itself sent out?

This is correct. Modern airliners send telemetry to their companies to let them know what's happening with the overall "health" of the aircraft on a periodic basis.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[billvon 2,400]

>True, but the simple fact the plane was sending data streams tells me it was not
>to that point yet.

?? Fragments of aircraft have been known to send signals back (transponder returns, ELT transmitter signals) as they descended. A cabin pressure loss indication is a suggestion of a fairly traumatic structural event.

[airtwardo 6]

Quote

>True, but the simple fact the plane was sending data streams tells me it was not
>to that point yet.

?? Fragments of aircraft have been known to send signals back (transponder returns, ELT transmitter signals) as they descended. A cabin pressure loss indication is a suggestion of a fairly traumatic structural event.

That's what I was wondering, what 'sections' would have to be intact and 'operational' to send a message like that.

Like in Flt. 007 the cockpit itself seperated, but I don't know if that would have cut all the power to everything up there.

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[billvon 2,400]

>what 'sections' would have to be intact and 'operational' to send a message
>like that.

You'd need:
Battery (APU is in the tail and engines are on the wings obviously)
ACARS system (in the ebay)
antenna (spread out over the fuselage)
enough surviving electrical bus equipment to switch to battery power

BTW the timeline looks like this:

02:10Z - 02:11Z
Autopilot disengaged
FBW system switch to alternate law (indicates serious pertubation in sensed attitude)

02:11Z - 02:13Z
ADIRU fault (air data inertial reference unit)
ISIS fault (standby instruments)

02:13Z
PRIM 1 fault (a primary control computer)
SEC 1 fault (a secondary control computer)

02:14Z
Cabin vertical speed limit exceeded

Position was reported as N3.5777 W30.3744 during these transmissions.

It sure looks like a plane undergoing massive system failures.