whatever

ok, how is 25000 different jumpers doing 1 jump at the same time and there being a probability of 37% for 1 double mal, different to: one jumper doing 25000 jumps and getting the same probability, as per my calculations? our calculations add up, I do not understand why you say I calculated a probability that is only valid before jump number one, before jump number one the probability of a double mal is always zero. surely you agree that for an event with any given probability, the more you repeat it, the more likely any one possible outcome is.... (for events with outcomes that have constant probabilities for any one given occurence of that event) as per flipping the coin, the more you do it, the more likely you are to get the result you're looking for.... how is this different to the case of the double mal's probability? please explain thanks soon to be gone

Agreed, if you don't use your reserve the odds of a double mal are zero, but the fictional number I used for calculations would have that factored in, that is, the odds of having a main mal and then having a reserve mal too, are 1 in 25000. later in my post I say that looks like too high a probability based on my calculations if you know the probability of main mals, and the probability of reserve mals, the probability of a double mal would be the product of the two: p(double mal) = p(main mal) x p(reserve mal) I was using 1 in 25000 as p(double mal) soon to be gone

ok, ok, so I'm not a professional statistician and I expect to get it from all sides for saying this, but please take the effort to correct me specifically on where I'm going wrong, if I am..... Please look at this purely in a statistical and mathematic manner, I'm not arguing the variables involded in mal probability, just some probability calculations. attached please find an Excel spreadsheet with some probability calculations and a graph the case we're looking at only has two possible outcomes for any one jump and they are: -you do not have a double mal, therefore we assume you live -you have a double mal, BSBD for my calculations I have assumed the probability of a double mal is 1 in 25000 (this is just a number used for demonstarting my calculations, as some other folks have used it too) this means the probability of not having a double mal on any one jump is 24999/25000, no matter what the jump number is on that jump... now, what is the probability of not having a double mal for two jumps in a row? from what I understand of statistics, the probability of two succesive events, both with known probabilities, having the desired outcomes, is the product of the probabilities of those outcomes, i.e.: probability of not having a double mal on one jump = 24999/25000 probability of not having a double mal on the next jump = 24999/25000 (so you're looking good there...) BUT, the probability of doing two jumps and not having a double mal on either = 24999/25000 * 24999/25000 which is still a pretty damn high number.... if you follow the spreadsheet down you will see that at 1000 jumps your probability of having had a double mal is just under 4% (this sounds way out of whack with observed statistics, so the real probability of a double mal is likely less than 1/25000), move along to 10000 jumps and now the probability of having had that double mal is 33%, at 20000 it's 55% (note that it didn't just double, as we are not adding probabilities, we are multilying them), at 50000 it's 86% and you've hit 98% percent when you've done 100000 jumps.... looking at the graph you can see that the probability of not having that double mal starts at 1 (for zero jumps) and decreases with every jump you do and at about 150000 it starts to approximate zero, this makes sense, as you are rolling a many-sided dice (think more than 25000 sides, if you can picture that ) and only one of those outcomes are bad, but, if you keep rolling that dice, no matter how low the probability of that one outcome, eventually it will happen..... I've included a second worksheet with the same for a coin toss, head or tails and what is the probability of getting tails for every single coin toss, for x number of coin tosses in a row.... if you disagree with my calculations but cannot explain clearly why, a simple test would be to do the coin tosses and compare your observed results to my calculated probabilities... go ahead, see how many tries it takes you to get a result of 10 tails in a row..... sorry about the long post, couldn't do clear and short... soon to be gone

yeah, whatever.... yeah, some people got some pretty obscure signature lines.... the one I have right now is a quote from a song, it's one of those lyrics that have two distinctly different interpretations.... I'm surprised no-ones commented on it, because the more common interpretation is one of disrespect for and violence against women (which is something I'm totally against), however, I'm convinced that's the wrong interpretation and even though I don't participate in the lifestyle described by the other interpretation, I like the philosophy of it. I'll change the signature soon enough, though, I quickly get bored of them.... later PS: let's try and get this post back on track! we need more pics of the bums of sexy chicks.... soon to be gone

dude as jy jou 'handtekening lyn' in 'n ander taal as Engels het, is dit hoflik om 'n vertaling ook te he (if you have your signature line in a different language to English, it's only polite to include a translation) I think you guys should set a 'post your bum or get tanked' deadline for a certain person around here... cheers edited to add: this is for Scratch too... soon to be gone

holy crap! Are we back to several pages of PW'ing about the not so imminent posting of Pia's bum? I think it's obvious that that's not her in her avatar and she really has a bum like the behind of a Putco bus, that's why she'll never post it..... soon to be gone

ok, I'm confused... how do you define glide ratio? I'm using the term to describe the ratio of horizontal speed to vertical speed. I think: horizontal speed = forward speed vertical speed = sink rate maybe you can point me at some literature that'll help? thanks soon to be gone

hi there I was wondering about the optimum air density for achieving the highest glide ratio with wingsuit flight. Please correct me if I'm wrong, I think it works like this: Factors affecting glide ratio in wingsuit flight: (we're assuming a flier who wants to achieve max glide ratio) -drag of suit traveling through the air -lift generated by suit -weight of flier Drag of suit: I think it makes sense to separate this into drag in a horizontal direction and drag in a vertical direction, even though the direction of flight is a combination of both, as higher drag in a horizontal direction will result in less horizontal speed and also in less lift generated by the wings. Higher drag in a vertical direction however will result in a slower descent rate. The 'floaty' nature of the Crossbow vs. a Skyflier can be explained by this. Lift generated by suit: This is a function of the 'airfoil' size and efficiency, both of which are affected by the skill and ability of the flier. It is also a function of the speed of the airflow over the airfoil and this in turn is a function of the suit drag vs. the flier's weight. Furthermore there is the angle of attack to consider, as optimum lift for most airfoils happen very close to the stall point. Weight of flier: The heavier you are the higher force you will have downwards due to gravity. A flier’s weight is tied in to their size/area though, so a wingloading would be a more indicative factor here, as fliers with large arm and leg spans and light body weight will fall slower and also have more wing area to generate lift from. Now, as air density will not affect your weight (or wingloading) my reasoning says glide ratio variability with air density is due to the effect of air density on drag and lift only. That is where I cannot theoretically predict what the net effect of increasing air density would be, as increased air density will increase lift, but also drag and the net effect depends on the lift-drag ratio of the wingsuit. So, in short, my question is how air density affects your glide ratio. Specifically changes in air density due to temperature, pressure (altitude) and relative humidity. You know, will you have a better glide ratio near sea level on a cold, high pressure day with low humidity, or at altitude on a hot, humid, low pressure day? I know you’ll fly faster in lower air density, but will your glide ratio be higher too? soon to be gone

yup, you pretty much triggered it! I wouldn't call your comment ill-considered, it's perfectly valid and everyone has their own frame of reference. I was also being facetious when calling it the Queen's English, English is anyone's who speaks it, it is a multi-facted and continuously evolving language. and I know very few people consider her their queen and.... I know Wales is it's own country and I know how entertaining it can be trying to find our way around Wales if you have no knowledge of the Welsh language.... word up on the hip hop homies, though.... what's the 411, dog? 'infourmation' ROTFLMAO - I hope you meant to do that... it's super funny whether you did or not... I'm glad this poll has gone the way it has, it was never intended in a derogatory way towards anyone, just a discussion on the idiosyncrasies of English and how people in different parts of the world use it. what really got, and still gets me, is that just about everyone in Canada thinks a pylon is a (usually orange) traffic cone! soon to be gone

for sure, rub-a-dub, I just prefer the way battle cruiser sits in the sentence… it’s also used in one of my favourite brit movie scenes, in ‘lock, stock and two smoking barrels’ nothing like nice set of bristols and a tight ‘arris! my brother was in the U.S. when trainspotting hit the theatres – he was the only guy in theatre laughing! yeah, that’s the real paradigm shift, right there, when I started thinking in English instead of my mother language… IMHO a lot of the interesting variations on English from around the globe are a result of thinking in another language while communicating in English… dude, that rocks! One of the best examples of English having practically more exceptions than rules… soon to be gone

that's one of the most entertaining things anywhere in the world, but only in England could you go down to the battlecruiser with your artful dodger and say: 'look at those bristols...' soon to be gone

say what? be like 8 ? did I say that? I do not understand your question.....

well, well, look at which half of the world finally had morning roll around....

hot damn! tied with the Chinese for first place..... I can only hope the South African votes weren't all inspired by me personally.... soon to be gone

WTH? who voted work? if you're even thinking about it, just do it, go jump, do it for those of us who can't even if we did take the day off... (the weather's doing me in...) soon to be gone

I want to be the guy that flies over the man's car and pees on his windshield. I wonder if you can get canopy control coaching for that sort of thing?? soon to be gone

yeah, what he said... 'cept I'm not married, just real difficult to get along with.... soon to be gone

oh, mine eyes have seen the glory of your post in the 'post your butt thread'.... please say there's more than that and I'll be on the case like Sherlock Holmes..... soon to be gone

Tom sounds like you're the J. Edgar Hoover of the BASE internet, right there.... I guess if any sport needs that, BASE is definitely it and kudos to you for doing your part for it. soon to be gone

no problem, always a pleasure to bounce some ideas around

-because guys in general do first and think later- I'm all for more skychickas, though.. skychickas rock! - we need more of them soon to be gone

as in, a jacket to skydive in? (depending on what type of jumping, several manufacturers make some, e.g. camera jackets with little wings, some make 3 and 4 piece jumpsuits, which include 2 jackets, one freefly one winged usually, I think Kurupee and Firefly come to mind there) or a skydiving related jacket? (apparently PISA used to make ZP windbreakers with the 'death sticker' on them, you can get similiar from Freakin'Suits) happy hunting soon to be gone

an upside-down artificial horizon, for when she's freeflying! soon to be gone

'monster' energy drink it's the closest thing to 'V' I can find in this country.... soon to be gone

doggie style.... soon to be gone