Ukraine

[sfzombie13 307]

4 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

I understand. In this case, I have lived it and seen it for too long. People are getting killed while we shake our finger. The only way to deal with a charging bear is with a large caliber weapon. 

all we really have to do is impose complete oil and gas embargoes on russia and stick to it.  gas prices go up a little and puddin' is back inside his borders by next weekend, then overthrown a few weeks later.

[BIGUN 1,053]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

It will be a small fraction of the number that were killed in Iraq. Some lives matter more though.

Ken. Think about what you just said. 

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 minute ago, BIGUN said:

Ken. Think about what you just said. 

Where is that sarcasm font when I need it?

 

[BIGUN 1,053]

1 minute ago, gowlerk said:

Where is that sarcasm font when I need it?

aaaah. Apologies. With the current events, my sarcasm meter is broke. But, my pissed off meter is fully calibrated. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by BIGUN

[brenthutch 383]

3 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

OK, Slick what's your fucking plan other than throwing "follies" around? Wait you just want to throw rocks at everyone else's shit. Go play with the other kids - the adults want to have a conversation.   

Easy there Rambo, I laid out my plan and it didn’t entail WWIII.

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 minute ago, BIGUN said:

aaaah. Apologies. With the current events, my sarcasm meter is broke. But, my pissed off meter is fully calibrated. 

Anyway your position seems to be that the US can answer this on a military to military level. Although I am reasonably sure that you are correct, neither the US nor the world is willing to pay the price.

[BIGUN 1,053]

Just now, brenthutch said:

I laid out my plan and it didn’t entail WWIII.

You have no plan. 

[Phil1111 910]

9 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

I understand. In this case, I have lived it and seen it for too long. People are getting killed while we shake our finger. The only way to deal with a charging bear is with a large caliber weapon. 

Completely agree. Putin is a bear and a bully. He put down the Chechen rebellion with heavy artillery. By ordering the killings of entire families including children when resistance fighters were identified.Today his representative routinely uses torture to maintain an iron grip on its population. Putin’s Dragon A story from the New Yorker on how the leader of Chechen republic is Putin's protege. ‘We can find you anywhere’: the Chechen death squads stalking Europe

If Putin has his way every surrounding republic would go the way of Chechnya. He would install a puppet government in Ukraine. Who would use the same tactics to control its population.

But the blood o not one US marine, not one Polish troop need not soak the soil of Europe. Instead it takes politicians to lead populations in the face of financial discomfort. The biggest bear in Alaska need not feel the power of a .460 Weatherby. It only needs to realize that perhaps an easier meal is over the next hill and next week.So it lives to see another day. Bears don't get big by being stupid and Putin isn't stupid.

[brenthutch 383]

5 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

You have no plan. 

If you want something more muscular, we could add some cyber and covert shenanigans.  Going forward I would build permanent US bases in the eastern flank of NATO, including the Baltic states.  Unfortunately this has been a long time coming. Crimea is a latter day Sudentenland and Obama a latter day Chamberlain.

”History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes”

[BIGUN 1,053]

6 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

It only needs to realize that perhaps an easier meal is over the next hill and next week.

That doesn't solve the problem, Phil. It's just changes the time and location.  

[Phil1111 910]

30 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Putin has received push-back. He pulled every string he could to get out of the last round of sanctions, but Trump could not get it done for him. He will feel the pain and he will feel real pressure from those he must please to remain in power. His mastery of the west is nothing compared to what he must do to stay alive in the Kremlin. But apparently it is worth it to him to be remembered in history as Vlad The Great.

IMO thats somewhat correct. But Putin isn't afraid of anyone. Oligarchs have had every penny seized and been locked up in the gulags. The press conference with his military leaders and generals this week. Showed generals completely cowered by Putins position. His generals and appointees-oligarchs. Know Putin can order them killed just as quick as KIm of N.Korea can. Thats not to say he's not afraid of a rogue Russian patriot who might pull a Tokarev from his back pocket.

[BIGUN 1,053]

6 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

we could add some cyber and covert shenanigans.  Going forward I would build

Woulds and coulds don't build bridges. 

[Phil1111 910]

5 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

That doesn't solve the problem, Phil. It's just changes the time and location.  

I'm sure that Sun Tzu has an appropriate thought. But in my opinion you keep the powder dry. Make the best of an disadvantageous position. Plan and as some US general so eloquently put it “If you f--- with me, I’ll kill you all.”

Edited February 25, 2022 by Phil1111

[gowlerk 1,912]

7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

But Putin isn't afraid of anyone.

I'll bet you he has a food taster.

[BIGUN 1,053]

4 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

'm sure that Sun Tzu has an appropriate thought. But in my opinion you keep the powder dry. Make the best of an disadvantageous position. Plan and as some us general so eloquently put it “If you f--- with me, I’ll kill you all.”

OK. You're on the committee, but once we reach a thousand dead Ukrainians; we're done talking. 

[gowlerk 1,912]

2 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

OK. You're on the committee, but once we reach a thousand dead Ukrainians; we're done talking. 

By CNN or Fox News count?

[Phil1111 910]

4 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

OK. You're on the committee, but once we reach a thousand dead Ukrainians; we're done talking. 

Patience my young Achilles. In a year or ten, with luck. President Putin will end up like this other dictator. Gaddafi caught like "rat" in a drain, humiliated and shot

[metalslug 31]

42 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

I understand. In this case, I have lived it and seen it for too long. People are getting killed while we shake our finger. The only way to deal with a charging bear is with a large caliber weapon. 

I empathise with your anger and would also prefer to see Putin face significant military resistance. However, I'm also surprised that you believe military action by the US would be (or would have been) in the best interests of the US. Putin has already indicated  'consequences greater than any faced in history' and whatever that is, nukes or not, the US doesn't have the stomach for that level of sacrifice fighting someone else's war, and understandably so. Even if, by some miracle, a western coalition were to deal significant military damage, I'd bet dollars to donuts that China would then aid Russia as a contingency, and once that happens there's no contest.

[BIGUN 1,053]

2 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

In a year or ten, with luck.

We apologize to have to tell you; you're off the committee.  

[BIGUN 1,053]

2 minutes ago, metalslug said:

Putin has already indicated  'consequences greater than any faced in history' and whatever that is

Bullies talk shit until they get punched in the mouth. 

[olofscience 421]

7 minutes ago, metalslug said:

Even if, by some miracle, a western coalition were to deal significant military damage, I'd bet dollars to donuts that China would then aid Russia as a contingency, and once that happens there's no contest.

This is Putin's war, ordinary Russians won't support it. Unfortunately their voices are silenced for now. What would they gain? Natural resources? They already have a lot of those - oil and gas remember?

Now China just wants western dominance to end, so they'll root for russia to take the west down a peg, but they won't sacrifice anything important for Putin either.

[gowlerk 1,912]

2 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

Bullies talk shit until they get punched in the mouth. 

It is impossible to know if he is crazy enough to deploy nukes, tactical (which means on the soil he is trying to control) or strategic. Either would be a colossal disaster for everyone in the world. It is impossible to know if the Russian military would even allow it or if that is a line he would be stopped from crossing. The most sensible thing to believe is that he is bluffing. But who wants to make that bet? What is clear is that there is no military power in the world, none, that is willing to send troops or aircraft to assist Ukraine. The world did little in 2014 and will only do a small amount more now. 

[Phil1111 910]

6 minutes ago, BIGUN said:

Bullies talk shit until they get punched in the mouth. 

There is an old concept in martial arts that goes something like. If you're in doubt about what technique to use. Its always best to start with Atemi-waza to the face.i.e. punch in the face. Of course you immediately follow up with another attack. The punch is intended to disable and distract.

You're completely correct.

[gowlerk 1,912]

3 minutes ago, olofscience said:

This is Putin's war, ordinary Russians won't support it.

This is not correct. Most Russians support the goal, although they may not support having a war unless it goes relatively well.

[JoeWeber 2,299]

1 minute ago, BIGUN said:

We apologize to have to tell you; you're off the committee.  

We fucked up. Without energy sales Russia is nothing, same as Saudi Arabia. We literally financed this war with our addiction to Hummers. That we are considering tapping our strategic oil reserve to control pricing at the gas pump in Topeka is evidence that on a certain level Brent is right about our energy policies. 

Ukraine is lost. It becoming Russian territory will not tip the balance of power in Eastern Europe significantly. Unfortunately now is a fine time to lick our wounds and live to fight another day. 

No, Brent, we do not need forward bases arrayed in an aggressive posture. We don't want world war and bluffing is for chumps. What we do need are terminals and ports dedicated to energy. What we do need is an energy alliance that includes a long term plan to supply gas and crude to Europe while we work coterminously to wean the western world from fossil fuels. We need to do whatever is realistic over the next decade to shrink the Russian energy market and the Chinese products market. 

Keith, we don't need to deploy divisions and threats. We need to boil frogs, seems to me.