NOAA Report on sea level rise

[brenthutch 383]

11 hours ago, brenthutch said:

12 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

This sentence doesn't make any sense. Actually the whole post is a little unhinged.

The point is that investors/Wall Street have been punishing companies who are not distributing profits to shareholders or buying back stock. Hence that is what the big oil companies are doing, hoarding profit in stead of investing in drilling.

 

It is the hoarding of permits by the administration which is limiting our domestic production.  All the leases in the world are no good unless they can be developed.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/energy-industry-psaki-oil-and-gas-leases-ceraweek

[wmw999 2,121]

If OPEC isn’t going to up production so that people can pay less for gasoline, what makes you think that the US bigs will want to increase production to reduce prices?

Wendy P. 

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, wmw999 said:

If OPEC isn’t going to up production so that people can pay less for gasoline, what makes you think that the US bigs will want to increase production to reduce prices?

Wendy P. 

Given the reduction of Russian oil from the US market, increased domestic production won’t lower prices, it will just help reduce upward pressure.  Do we really want to beg Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to produce what we could do here at home?

 

[gowlerk 1,912]

The cancelled pipeline from the Canadian tar sands to the Oklahoma distribution hub was designed to reduce the total cost of production and increase the profit from there. Any oil produced there that can not be moved by pipelines will be moved by rail at higher cost. 
 
Production and capital costs for this oil are quite high. But there are huge reserves there that can be called on if needed. But first long term price stability must happen.

[billvon 2,400]

4 hours ago, wmw999 said:

If OPEC isn’t going to up production so that people can pay less for gasoline, what makes you think that the US bigs will want to increase production to reduce prices?

Indeed they have a lot of reasons to NOT increase production.  174 billion reasons to be precise.

"In the third quarter of 2021 alone, 24 top oil and gas companies made more than $74bn in net income. From January to September, the net income of the group, which includes Exxon, Chevron, Shell and BP, was $174bn."

"Americans wondering why they’re paying more to heat their homes or put gas in the car need look no further than the record setting profits of oil and gas companies."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/06/oil-companies-profits-exxon-chevron-shell-exclusive

https://www.accountable.us/news/big-oil-companies-net-75-billion-in-profit-while-americans-struggle-to-heat-homes-fill-gas-tanks/

[brenthutch 383]

That balances out the losses you guys were gloating about two years ago. But don’t worry, they will take those profits, roll them back into the business and develop more capacity and attract additional capital. Hopefully they will be able to sustain prices right around $70 bbl.  Reasonable price at the pump and profitable enough to attract investment for long term success.

[kallend 1,623]

Well, here's a silver lining.  The record low sea-ice in the Weddell Sea has enabled Shackelton's ship to be found.

Exactly 100 years after his funeral on S. Georgia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60662541

[GeorgiaDon 340]

I assumed that oil is oil, and that loss of overseas sources could be compensated for by increasing domestic production, but it turns out reality is more complicated.  Back in the '90s and early 2000s a lot of refining capacity was built to process "heavy sour" crude, which is crude with a hydrocarbon composition that is harder to "crack" (refine to make gas) and has a high sulfur content.  Since then the US sources that have been developed, such as fracking, produce "light sweet" crude (low sulfur, shorter hydrocarbons) that requires a different process to refine and therefore can't be processed by refineries built to process heavy sour crude.  So the problem of gas supply demands not only a supply of crude oil but also building new refineries to handle the specific chemistry of that crude, which is very expensive and takes years.  Older refineries can be retrofitted but the process requires them to shut down and basically be rebuilt which is almost as costly and time consuming as building from scratch.  The refining industry isn't willing to take the cost of shutting down for a few years when they can import heavy sour crude to process.  Also retrofitting the refining capacity of the country would dramatically reduce gas supply for years as the new refineries are built.  That is why the US finds itself being a net oil exporter: we import heavy sour while a lot of domestic production is exported to other countries that can process light sweet crude.  (link here)

[wmw999 2,121]

6 minutes ago, GeorgiaDon said:

I assumed that oil is oil, and that loss of overseas sources could be compensated for by increasing domestic production, but it turns out reality is more complicated.

Reality is just about always more complicated.

Wendy P.

[kallend 1,623]

9 hours ago, wmw999 said:

Reality is just about always more complicated.

Wendy P.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong";  attributed to H. L. Mencken

[Phil1111 911]

13 hours ago, GeorgiaDon said:

I assumed that oil is oil, ... That is why the US finds itself being a net oil exporter: we import heavy sour while a lot of domestic production is exported to other countries that can process light sweet crude.  (link here)

That summary is not quite the whole equation. pipelines, oil refinery locations, the age and design of those refineries. Together with seasonal demands all come together to create slight mismatches in demands for crude types. This may explain it further.

Exports are more a factor of production-storage capacity, location, pipelines and demand. Its easy to ship Alaskan crude to Japan and import Venezuelan crude to the gulf coast.

This most accurately explains Russian imports: "The bulk of this oil is classified by the EIA as unfinished oils. Sources told Platts that these products consist of different types of fuel and their various feedstocks.
These include high sulfur fuel oil, high sulfur vacuum gasoil, low sulfur vacuum gasoil, high sulfur straight run fuel oil and low sulfur straight run fuel oil.Russian refineries are major producers and exporters of such fuel oil products. These feedstocks are crucial for processing in the secondary units of complex refineries.

US demand for HSFO has also risen sharply as the lack of Venezuelan crude has encouraged some refineries to blend the fuel oil with light sweet crudes as an alternative feedstock. Complex US refiners also use Russian HSFO and HSSR in coking units, trading sources said.

Average US vacuum gasoil imports from Russia in 2020 were 125,000 b/d compared with 110,000 b/d in 2019, according to Platts Analytics.

"VGO volumes are more significant and potentially more difficult to replace," said Lenny Rodriguez, who covers products arbitrage and Latin America for Platts Analytics.

"Average fuel oil imports over the last few years have been around 20,000-35,000 b/d," he said. "If those imports were to stop, other locations such as Latin America, the Middle East. and possibly Northwest Europe would likely be ready to cover the gap."

LSVGO is used by a fluid catalytic cracker to make more gasoline while HSVGO is processed in a hydrocracker to make more diesel. US plants are key exporters of diesel to the global markets while the US is a major consumer of gasoline. As US refinery utilization rates have picked up, their demand for such products has also grown, trading sources said."

Edited March 11, 2022 by Phil1111

[metalslug 31]

On 3/10/2022 at 8:10 AM, kallend said:

Well, here's a silver lining.  The record low sea-ice in the Weddell Sea has enabled Shackelton's ship to be found.

Exactly 100 years after his funeral on S. Georgia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-60662541

Actually the record low was more than 6 years ago, and curiously still required an icebreaker vessel to find it now.   A great find though !

[SkyDekker 1,122]

On 3/8/2022 at 12:40 PM, brenthutch said:

That balances out the losses you guys were gloating about two years ago. But don’t worry, they will take those profits, roll them back into the business and develop more capacity and attract additional capital. Hopefully they will be able to sustain prices right around $70 bbl.  Reasonable price at the pump and profitable enough to attract investment for long term success.

Except they are not. They are taking those profits and distributing them or buying back stock. At least they have been until this point.

I already pointed out the CoconoPhilips acquisition of the Permian Basin and their intention NOT to invest in increased production but increased distribution and stock buy backs.

Edited March 13, 2022 by SkyDekker

[brenthutch 383]

There has to be a balance, OPEC knows this.

[gowlerk 1,912]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

I already pointed out the CoconoPhilips acquisition of the Permian Basin and their intention NOT to invest in increased production but increased distribution and stock buy backs.

The oil patch there was badly burned when they frantically threw money at increasing capacity before the price fell. Sometimes people learn hard lessons and those lessons stick. The price is now high again. For the moment. But there is good reason to believe that supply and demand will come back into balance before huge investments in tight oil production can pay off. 

[Phil1111 911]

37 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

The oil patch there was badly burned when they frantically threw money at increasing capacity before the price fell. Sometimes people learn hard lessons and those lessons stick. The price is now high again. For the moment. But there is good reason to believe that supply and demand will come back into balance before huge investments in tight oil production can pay off. 

Agree. The pigs got greedy and got caught with their snouts in the trough. They all got slaughtered.

This graph is US rig count and it shows steady increased drilling. "There's little wonder why oil isn't eager to ride to Ukraine's rescue: The exploration industry as a whole had nearly $20 billion in negative free cash flow as recently as 2015, losing $78 billion between 2005 and 2017 as hydraulic fracking took over the industry and drove crude prices lower amid oversupplied markets and overextended drillers"

[brenthutch 383]

10 hours ago, Phil1111 said:

Agree. The pigs got greedy and got caught with their snouts in the trough. They all got slaughtered.

Not all of them got slaughtered, the remaining ones got smarter and are now feasting in the trough with current prices nearly three times the break even point.

[Phil1111 911]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Not all of them got slaughtered, the remaining ones got smarter and are now feasting in the trough with current prices nearly three times the break even point.

They didn't get smarter. They are the survivors of chapter 11 proceedings. Every time oil goes above the break even point for fracking. Which is about $50/bbl. conservation and green initiatives flourish. Which is good.

Its just too bad that green initiates don't get the subsidies that oil gets. I'm sure 4x4 pickups are flying off the dealer showrooms in Texas and Oklahoma now. With the price of oil what it is.

[brenthutch 383]

10 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

They didn't get smarter. They are the survivors of chapter 11 proceedings. Every time oil goes above the break even point for fracking. Which is about $50/bbl. conservation and green initiatives flourish. Which is good.

Its just too bad that green initiates don't get the subsidies that oil gets. I'm sure 4x4 pickups are flying off the dealer showrooms in Texas and Oklahoma now. With the price of oil what it is.

A price of around $70bbl, is reasonable for the long term. It gives a sufficient ROI for continued domestic production and is what Saudi Arabia needs to maintain its social contract with its citizens.

4X4 pickups are still outselling EVs, by multiples, even with gas approaching $5 a gallon.

 

[gowlerk 1,912]

27 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

I'm sure 4x4 pickups are flying off the dealer showrooms in Texas and Oklahoma now. With the price of oil what it is.

EV pickup trucks are "coming soon". If and when large numbers of them actually become available TX and OK will probably be huge markets for them. Independent eclectic motors on each wheel would make them the most capable 4x4s ever built. 

[brenthutch 383]

14 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

EV pickup trucks are "coming soon". If and when large numbers of them actually become available TX and OK will probably be huge markets for them. Independent eclectic motors on each wheel would make them the most capable 4x4s ever built. 

Not this year (according to Musk) and at a price point north of $100k I don’t expect there to be a huge market for them.

I have to admit the idea of eclectic motors is fascinating 

Edited March 13, 2022 by brenthutch

[billvon 2,400]

19 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Except they are not. They are taking those profits and distributing them or buying back stock.

Indeed.  They are making money hand over fist due to the oil shortage; they'd be fools to change that.

[Stumpy 256]

4 hours ago, gowlerk said:

 Independent eclectic motors on each wheel would make them the most capable 4x4s ever built. 

That's a fantastic bit of auto-complete

[headoverheels 291]

4 hours ago, brenthutch said:

I have to admit the idea of eclectic motors is fascinating 

They are designed by eclectic engineers.

[winsor 186]

11 hours ago, headoverheels said:

They are designed by eclectic engineers.

It takes a double-E to spell 'geek."

Edited March 14, 2022 by winsor