brenthutch 384 #451 March 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said: Hi Rich, You remind me of Ronald Reagan; he had a 15-word solution to every problem in this country. He was far from reality. Jerry Baumchen If well reasoned it only takes 15 words “It depends. If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if fifteen minutes, three days; if half an hour, two days; if an hour, I am ready now.” A smart guy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #452 March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, brenthutch said: When prices go from negative to $60 bbl in a few months? https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/goldman-stock-picks-em-shares-to-benefit-on-higher-oil-price-forecast.html I am not disputing price of oil went up. I am disputing it is all driven by demand from the world opening up as you implied.Your government, in their projections, seems to agree with me. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #453 March 24, 2021 26 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: I am not disputing price of oil went up. I am disputing it is all driven by demand from the world opening up as you implied.Your government, in their projections, seems to agree with me. From my government “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $62 per barrel (b) in February, up $8/b from January’s average and up $7/b from February 2020. Rising Brent prices in February continued to reflect expectations of rising oil demand as both COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity have increased” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #454 March 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, brenthutch said: From my government “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $62 per barrel (b) in February, up $8/b from January’s average and up $7/b from February 2020. Rising Brent prices in February continued to reflect expectations of rising oil demand as both COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity have increased” the sentence didn't end there: "combined with ongoing petroleum supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+). In addition, disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in the United States (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on crude oil prices during February. " Here is the link Link also shows demand and oversupply lagging 2019 numbers until 2022. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #455 March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: the sentence didn't end there: "combined with ongoing petroleum supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+). In addition, disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in the United States (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on crude oil prices during February. " Here is the link Link also shows demand and oversupply lagging 2019 numbers until 2022. I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels. I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #456 March 24, 2021 Biden pulls a Trump and dumps his crisis on the lap of his vp. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/544741-biden-taps-harris-to-lead-on-immigration-amid-border-crisis 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #457 March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, brenthutch said: I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels. I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry No, you said there was skyrocketing demand due to the world opening up. Then you posted proof of your claim with the increase in price of crude. Then you had to partially quote reports and restate what you really meant.....as usual. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murps2000 86 #458 March 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, brenthutch said: I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels. I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry You said demand was skyrocketing. The cost certainly is but as usual it is largely speculation driven. Search “rockets and feathers” and you will see this is common in oil markets. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #459 March 24, 2021 (edited) 38 minutes ago, murps2000 said: You said demand was skyrocketing. The cost certainly is but as usual it is largely speculation driven. Search “rockets and feathers” and you will see this is common in oil markets. Skyrocketing compared to what was happening a year ago. I guess context is everything. Edit: Ok I just got back from picking up my daughter at school and was listening to a story on NPR about “skyrocketing” prices were a result of “skyrocketing” demand. They called it Econ 101 and said it had no to do with Biden’s policies......yet Edited March 24, 2021 by brenthutch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #460 March 24, 2021 1 minute ago, brenthutch said: Skyrocketing compared to what was happening a year ago. I guess context is everything. Consumption in Q4 2020 and projected demand in Q1 2021 was flat. Projected demand is increasing, but certainly not skyrocketing. The skyrocketing in consumption happened mostly Q2 2020 and extended a bit into Q3 2020. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #461 March 24, 2021 34 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: Consumption in Q4 2020 and projected demand in Q1 2021 was flat. Projected demand is increasing, but certainly not skyrocketing. It would be a more valid to compare Q1 ‘20 to Q1 ‘21. Just listened to NPR they said the “skyrocketing” price of gas was due to the “skyrocketing” demand and warned it will only get worse as vaccination continues and peek driving season arrives. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #462 March 24, 2021 35 minutes ago, brenthutch said: It would be a more valid to compare Q1 ‘20 to Q1 ‘21. Not much change there at all, consumption about the same levels. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
richravizza 25 #463 March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said: Hi Rich, You remind me of Ronald Reagan; he had a 15-word solution to every problem in this country. He was far from reality. Jerry Baumchen Thank you Jerrry, that's quite a complement. To compare me to a man that saved the free world from International Socialism, totalitarianism and perhaps the entire world from thermonuclear Armageddon, I find a bit much. To your point, some truths are self evident. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #464 March 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: Not much change there at all, consumption about the same levels. How can you make that comparison when Q1, 2021 is not yet in the books? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,406 #465 March 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, richravizza said: Thank you Jerrry, that's quite a complement. To compare me to a man that saved the free world from International Socialism . . . Ironically, today's republicans would consider Reagan a left wing, gun grabbing, illegal-immigrant-loving Hollywood liberal. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #466 March 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, brenthutch said: How can you make that comparison when Q1, 2021 is not yet in the books? I am going by what your government reported as of March 4th as a forecast. Maybe they are really bad at their jobs? World consumption at the start of Q1 2020 is not forecast to be matched until late 2021. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #467 March 24, 2021 (edited) I think you would agree that actual measurable results are more accurate than projections, especially given the tumultuous year. If not an increase in demand, to what would you attribute the spike in gas prices? Edited March 24, 2021 by brenthutch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,635 #468 March 24, 2021 Lose one, win one. Trolls, that is. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #469 March 24, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, kallend said: Lose one, win one. Trolls, that is. Thank you for that insightful contribution https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnPWJOJYVKc Edited March 25, 2021 by brenthutch 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #470 March 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, brenthutch said: If not an increase in demand, to what would you attribute the spike in gas prices? Gas or oil? You started with one and now are talking about the other. In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #471 March 24, 2021 (edited) 43 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: Gas or oil? You started with one and now are talking about the other. In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves. Agreed but isn’t demand going up, faster than supply, thereby creating upward pressure on pricing? BTW I’m also including predicted demand and supply AKA futures. Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply? Edited March 25, 2021 by brenthutch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,129 #472 March 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, brenthutch said: Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply? Not at all. I am arguing their is an increase in demand, but that none of the models are showing a forecasted skyrocketing. Past demand means relatively nothing. I am also arguing there is a fair bit of pressure on current and future supply through weather events and increased tension in middle east see recent failed attack on oil infrastructure for instance. That is oil. I am also arguing that lockdown restriction in other parts of the world, such as Europe are having a restricting effect on demand, which again is not skyrocketing. So yes, demand is up, though not skyrocketing, and uncertainty around supply is driving up oil futures. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wolfriverjoe 1,346 #473 March 25, 2021 1 hour ago, SkyDekker said: In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves. Oil prices are rising, and are likely to rise some more. Purely a supply issue. There's a very large container ship stuck sideways in the Suez Canal. A LOT of oil (and other stuff) passes through there. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murps2000 86 #474 March 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, brenthutch said: Agreed but isn’t demand going up, faster than supply, thereby creating upward pressure on pricing? BTW I’m also including predicted demand and supply AKA futures. Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply? I know your not asking me and I don’t mean to be trying to pile on. Demand is increasing but OPEC hasn’t yet increased production over pandemic levels. There is talk that they may do so in early April. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 384 #475 March 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, murps2000 said: I know your not asking me and I don’t mean to be trying to pile on. Demand is increasing but OPEC hasn’t yet increased production over pandemic levels. There is talk that they may do so in early April. I might have been a bit hyperbolic with “skyrocketing” but I was just using the language of NPR. Anyway “skyrocketing” is a totally subjective term. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites