President Biden, critics corner

[brenthutch 383]

34 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Rich,

You remind me of Ronald Reagan; he had a 15-word solution to every problem in this country.  He was far from reality.

Jerry Baumchen

If well reasoned it only takes 15 words

“It depends. If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if fifteen minutes, three days; if half an hour, two days; if an hour, I am ready now.”

A smart guy

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

When prices go from negative to $60 bbl in a few months? 
 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/goldman-stock-picks-em-shares-to-benefit-on-higher-oil-price-forecast.html

I am not disputing price of oil went up. I am disputing it is all driven by demand from the world opening up as you implied.Your government, in their projections, seems to agree with me.

[brenthutch 383]

26 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

I am not disputing price of oil went up. I am disputing it is all driven by demand from the world opening up as you implied.Your government, in their projections, seems to agree with me.

From my government “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $62 per barrel (b) in February, up $8/b from January’s average and up $7/b from February 2020. Rising Brent prices in February continued to reflect expectations of rising oil demand as both COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity have increased”

 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

3 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

From my government “Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $62 per barrel (b) in February, up $8/b from January’s average and up $7/b from February 2020. Rising Brent prices in February continued to reflect expectations of rising oil demand as both COVID-19 vaccination rates and global economic activity have increased”

 

the sentence didn't end there:

"combined with ongoing petroleum supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+). In addition, disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in the United States (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on crude oil prices during February. "

Here is the link

Link also shows demand and oversupply lagging 2019 numbers until 2022.

[brenthutch 383]

2 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

the sentence didn't end there:

"combined with ongoing petroleum supply limitations by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partner countries (OPEC+). In addition, disruptions to petroleum supply from extreme winter weather in the United States (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on crude oil prices during February. "

Here is the link

Link also shows demand and oversupply lagging 2019 numbers until 2022.

I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels.  I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry 

[brenthutch 383]

Biden pulls a Trump and dumps his crisis on the lap of his vp.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/544741-biden-taps-harris-to-lead-on-immigration-amid-border-crisis

[SkyDekker 1,121]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels.  I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry 

No, you said there was skyrocketing demand due to the world opening up. Then you posted proof of your claim with the increase in price of crude. Then you had to partially quote reports and restate what you really meant.....as usual.

[murps2000 86]

5 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

I never claimed demand was going to surpass 2019 levels.  I said prices have recovered (to rates higher than 2019) demand has increased and profitability will likely return to the oil and gas industry 

You said demand was skyrocketing. The cost certainly is but as usual it is largely speculation driven. Search “rockets and feathers” and you will see this is common in oil markets.

[brenthutch 383]

38 minutes ago, murps2000 said:

You said demand was skyrocketing. The cost certainly is but as usual it is largely speculation driven. Search “rockets and feathers” and you will see this is common in oil markets.

Skyrocketing compared to what was happening a year ago.  I guess context is everything. 
Edit:

Ok I just got back from picking up my daughter at school and was listening to a story on NPR about “skyrocketing” prices were a result of “skyrocketing” demand.  They called it Econ 101 and said it had no to do with Biden’s policies......yet

Edited March 24, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

1 minute ago, brenthutch said:

Skyrocketing compared to what was happening a year ago.  I guess context is everything.

Consumption in Q4 2020 and projected demand in Q1 2021 was flat. Projected demand is increasing, but certainly not skyrocketing.

The skyrocketing in consumption happened mostly Q2 2020 and extended a bit into Q3 2020.

 

[brenthutch 383]

34 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Consumption in Q4 2020 and projected demand in Q1 2021 was flat. Projected demand is increasing, but certainly not skyrocketing.

 

It would be a more valid to compare Q1 ‘20 to Q1 ‘21.  Just listened to NPR they said the “skyrocketing” price of gas was due to the “skyrocketing” demand and warned it will only get worse as vaccination continues and peek driving season arrives.

 

[SkyDekker 1,121]

35 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

It would be a more valid to compare Q1 ‘20 to Q1 ‘21.

Not much change there at all, consumption about the same levels.

[richravizza 25]

2 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Rich,

You remind me of Ronald Reagan; he had a 15-word solution to every problem in this country.  He was far from reality.

Jerry Baumchen

Thank you Jerrry, that's quite a complement. To compare me to a man that saved the free world from International Socialism, totalitarianism and perhaps the entire world from thermonuclear Armageddon, I find  a bit much.

To your point, some truths are self evident. 

 

[brenthutch 383]

11 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Not much change there at all, consumption about the same levels.

How can you make that comparison when Q1, 2021 is not yet in the books?

[billvon 2,384]

12 minutes ago, richravizza said:

Thank you Jerrry, that's quite a complement. To compare me to a man that saved the free world from International Socialism . . . 

Ironically, today's republicans would consider Reagan a left wing, gun grabbing, illegal-immigrant-loving Hollywood liberal.

[SkyDekker 1,121]

8 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

How can you make that comparison when Q1, 2021 is not yet in the books?

I am going by what your government reported as of March 4th as a forecast. Maybe they are really bad at their jobs?

World consumption at the start of Q1 2020 is not forecast to be matched until late 2021.

[brenthutch 383]

I think you would agree that actual measurable results are more accurate than projections, especially given the tumultuous year.  
If not an increase in demand, to what would you attribute the spike in gas prices?

Edited March 24, 2021 by brenthutch

[kallend 1,621]

Lose one, win one.

 

Trolls, that is.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

Lose one, win one.

 

Trolls, that is.

Thank you for that insightful contribution 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnPWJOJYVKc

Edited March 25, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

37 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

If not an increase in demand, to what would you attribute the spike in gas prices?

Gas or oil? You started with one and now are talking about the other.

In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves.

[brenthutch 383]

43 minutes ago, SkyDekker said:

Gas or oil? You started with one and now are talking about the other.

In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves.

Agreed but isn’t demand going up, faster than supply, thereby creating upward pressure on pricing?  BTW I’m also including predicted demand and supply AKA futures.

Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply?

Edited March 25, 2021 by brenthutch

[SkyDekker 1,121]

23 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply?

Not at all. I am arguing their is an increase in demand, but that none of the models are showing a forecasted skyrocketing. Past demand means relatively nothing. I am also arguing there is a fair bit of pressure on current and future supply through weather events and increased tension in middle east see recent failed attack on oil infrastructure for instance. That is oil.

I am also arguing that lockdown restriction in other parts of the world, such as Europe are having a restricting effect on demand, which again is not skyrocketing.

So yes, demand is up, though not skyrocketing, and uncertainty around supply is driving up oil futures.

 

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

In general for both, they are driven by predicted demand and actual and predicted supply, mitigated by reserves.

Oil prices are rising, and are likely to rise some more.

Purely a supply issue. 

There's a very large container ship stuck sideways in the Suez Canal. 

A LOT of oil (and other stuff) passes through there. 

[murps2000 86]

55 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Agreed but isn’t demand going up, faster than supply, thereby creating upward pressure on pricing?  BTW I’m also including predicted demand and supply AKA futures.

Or are you arguing that demand for oil and gas are not increasing, and that the rise in pricing is a result of reduced supply?

I know your not asking me and I don’t mean to be trying to pile on. Demand is increasing but OPEC hasn’t yet increased production over pandemic levels. There is talk that they may do so in early April.

[brenthutch 383]

6 minutes ago, murps2000 said:

I know your not asking me and I don’t mean to be trying to pile on. Demand is increasing but OPEC hasn’t yet increased production over pandemic levels. There is talk that they may do so in early April.

I might have been a bit hyperbolic with “skyrocketing” but I was just using the language of NPR.  Anyway “skyrocketing” is a totally subjective term.