brenthutch 383 #1 Posted December 19, 2020 Now that we are at the end of another year, it is time to measure the predictions of climate experts against what actually happened. https://junkscience.com/2020/12/wrong-again-2020s-failed-climate-doomsaying/ To paraphrase Richard Feynman; “If the predictions of your theory do not agree with observation, your theory is wrong. It doesn’t matter how smart you are, how beautiful the theory is (or if 97% of your buddies agree with it), IT IS WRONG! And that my friends is how science works” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,053 #2 December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, brenthutch said: https://junkscience.com/2020/12/wrong-again-2020s-failed-climate-doomsaying/ Steve Milloy? Seriously, Brent? Mr. Milloy is a nonscientist carnival barker that's backed and funded by tobacco, Oil & Gas, Coal, etc. whose found an audience by being loud. Your quote kinda cracks me up . . . That's quite the literary license you've taken as a "Paraphrase" cause that's not even close to what Feynman said or even to what he was referring . Sometimes I think you just get off on the argumentation about climate change. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gowlerk 1,912 #3 December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, BIGUN said: Sometimes I think you just get off on the argumentation about climate change. Sometimes? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,623 #4 December 19, 2020 Looks like we have a serious posting fail here. Same OP starting 2 threads with same title. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,053 #5 December 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, gowlerk said: Sometimes? My bad. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil1111 911 #6 December 19, 2020 13 minutes ago, kallend said: Looks like we have a serious posting fail here. Same OP starting 2 threads with same title. That would be three Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,122 #7 December 19, 2020 57 minutes ago, kallend said: Looks like we have a serious posting fail here. Same OP starting 2 threads with same title. It's gone. You're welcome, Brent. Wendy P. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murps2000 86 #8 December 20, 2020 10 hours ago, brenthutch said: Now that we are at the end of another year, it is time to measure the predictions of climate experts against what actually happened. https://junkscience.com/2020/12/wrong-again-2020s-failed-climate-doomsaying/ To paraphrase Richard Feynman; “If the predictions of your theory do not agree with observation, your theory is wrong. It doesn’t matter how smart you are, how beautiful the theory is (or if 97% of your buddies agree with it), IT IS WRONG! And that my friends is how science works” #1 is false. I stopped reading after that. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jun/25/30-years-later-deniers-are-still-lying-about-hansens-amazing-global-warming-prediction Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JoeWeber 2,299 #9 December 20, 2020 12 hours ago, brenthutch said: Now that we are at the end of another year, it is time to measure the predictions of climate experts against what actually happened. https://junkscience.com/2020/12/wrong-again-2020s-failed-climate-doomsaying/ To paraphrase Richard Feynman; “If the predictions of your theory do not agree with observation, your theory is wrong. It doesn’t matter how smart you are, how beautiful the theory is (or if 97% of your buddies agree with it), IT IS WRONG! And that my friends is how science works” You are better than this. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #10 December 21, 2020 On 12/19/2020 at 10:43 AM, BIGUN said: That's quite the literary license you've taken as a "Paraphrase" cause that's not even close to what Feynman said or even to what he was referring . Sometimes I think you just get off on the argumentation about climate change. Really? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,400 #11 December 21, 2020 On 12/19/2020 at 6:51 PM, JoeWeber said: You are better than this. That doesn't really agree with observation. The actual quote that BH butchered is "it doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." For the past 20 years or so, climate scientists have predicted it would get warmer due to anthropogenic gas releases. For the past 20 years, deniers have been saying it's about to cool down, that it's all fake. And we now have 20 years of "experimental" data to look at. And people like BH continue to believe the deniers. It's become a religion with them. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #12 December 21, 2020 6 hours ago, billvon said: For the past 20 years or so, climate scientists have predicted it would get warmer due to anthropogenic gas releases. For the past 20 years, deniers have been saying it's about to cool down, that it's all fake. And we now have 20 years of "experimental" data to look at. You are leaving out the catastrophic part of the CAGW theory. The part about, no glaciers in glacier national park by 2020, the part about no snow on Mount Kilimanjaro by 2020, the part about snowfall being a rare event that we would no longer be prepared to deal with by 2020, the part about how islands in the pacific world disappear beneath the waves by 2020, the part about how there would be fewer polar bears by 2020. If human emissions of CO2 only cause deserts to shrink and food production to increase, I can live with that, why can’t you? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,623 #13 December 21, 2020 It's pretty obvious that: 1. You don't know how science works. 2. You take the most extreme predictions and present them as mainstream. 3. You cherry pick data. 4. You take statements out of context. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,053 #14 December 21, 2020 17 hours ago, brenthutch said: Really? Yes. Really. Take a look at your paraphrase. Listen to the video you posted. And then, see Bill's summary in post #11. Instead of arguing with the scientists on here; why don't you ask them for some reference material to read? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #15 December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, kallend said: It's pretty obvious that: 2. You take the most extreme predictions and present them as mainstream. In an interview for The Ecologist, the Emeritus Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber warned that if we continue as we are now, then over the next century we may bring civilization to an end. He predicted that humans would survive somehow, but that almost everything which had been built up over the past two thousand years would be destroyed. He rated chances of success in the fight against climate change as more than 5% but definitely less than 50%.[61] In his 2019 BBC documentary Climate Change – The Facts, Sir David Attenborough warns that dramatic action needed to be taken against climate change within the next decade to avoid irreversible damage to the natural world and the collapse of human societies.[62] In a 2019 Channel 4 interview with Jon Snow, Attenborough states that the worst outcome of climate change that could be experienced within the next seventy years would be civil unrest and mass migration on a great scale. He predicts that humans will continue to find enough food, but that their diets will be forced to change.[63] Professor Emeritus of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School Jørgen Randers predicts that we will fail to meet the pledges of the Paris Agreement as in the short-term it is cheaper to continue acting as usual.[64] As a lifelong environmentalist, Prince Charles has given speeches warning that climate change could bring unimaginable horrors and that it calls into question our future survival on the planet.[65] Pope Francis has stated that climate change threatens the future of the human family and that we must take action to protect future generations and the world's poorest who will suffer the most from humanity's actions. He has also stated that our choice of energy has the potential to destroy our civilization and that this must be avoided.[66] In an interview, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres warned that the world was losing the fight against climate change, and described lack of action on climate change as "suicide".[67] In a September 2020 presentation to the United Nations, Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama described the present situation as an environmental armageddon.[68] Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #16 December 21, 2020 2 hours ago, kallend said: It's pretty obvious that: 2. You take the most extreme predictions and present them as Michael E. Mann Apr 09, 2017 Mann is a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University and co-author of The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy. “Science is under attack at the very moment when we need it most. President Donald Trump’s March 28 executive order went much further than simply throwing a lifeline to fossil fuels, as industry-funded congressional climate change–deniers have done in the past. It intentionally blinded the federal government to the impacts of climate change by abolishing an interagency group that measured the cost of carbon to public health and the environment. Now, the government won’t have a coordinated way to account for damages from climate change when assessing the costs and benefits of a particular policy. With that in mind, Trump should read the landmark “2020” report now published by Mission 2020, a group of experts convened by the former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The reportestablishes a timeline for how we can ensure a safe and stable climate. We don’t have much time — 2020 is a clear turning point.” So are you saying that Dr. Mann and a group of experts convened by the former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are out of the mainstream? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jakee 1,254 #17 December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, brenthutch said: So are you saying that Dr. Mann and a group of experts convened by the former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are out of the mainstream? What did they say would happen in 2020? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 1,623 #18 December 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, brenthutch said: Michael E. Mann Apr 09, 2017 Could be it's just piss-poor reading comprehension. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wmw999 2,122 #19 December 21, 2020 Naw, just a view of debate as a means of scoring points, rather than exchanging actual information. Wendy P. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #20 December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, kallend said: Could be it's just piss-poor reading comprehension. In 2017 he said “We don’t have much time — 2020 is a clear turning point.” For what you ask? To avoid “unprecedented damaging weather extremes” and “catastrophic warming of the planet”. He also said about AOC’s statement:”Millennials and Gen Z and all these folks that come after us are looking up, and we're like, 'The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change.” ”there is SUBSTANTIAL TRUTH in what AOC said.” Now 2020 has come and (nearly) gone and CO2 has continued to rise. So we are all doomed or the climate science community has overstated the threat. “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SkyDekker 1,122 #21 December 21, 2020 49 minutes ago, brenthutch said: In 2017 he said “We don’t have much time — 2020 is a clear turning point.” For what you ask? To avoid “unprecedented damaging weather extremes” and “catastrophic warming of the planet”. He also said about AOC’s statement:”Millennials and Gen Z and all these folks that come after us are looking up, and we're like, 'The world is going to end in 12 years if we don't address climate change.” ”there is SUBSTANTIAL TRUTH in what AOC said.” Now 2020 has come and (nearly) gone and CO2 has continued to rise. So we are all doomed or the climate science community has overstated the threat. “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future” Doesn't look like he said those unprecedented damaging weather extremes and catastrophic warming of the planet would actually happen by the end of 2020? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 2,400 #22 December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: Doesn't look like he said those unprecedented damaging weather extremes and catastrophic warming of the planet would actually happen by the end of 2020? Details, details. And when the next heat wave kills half a million people he'll say "eh, COVID killed more - and that had NOTHING to do with climate!" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phil1111 911 #23 December 21, 2020 4 hours ago, kallend said: It's pretty obvious that: 1. You don't know how science works. 2. You take the most extreme predictions and present them as mainstream. 3. You cherry pick data. 4. You take statements out of context. 12 minutes ago, billvon said: Details, details. And when the next heat wave kills half a million people he'll say "eh, COVID killed more - and that had NOTHING to do with climate!" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #24 December 21, 2020 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Phil1111 said: I couldn’t have put it any better, your beliefs vs my facts. However, to be truly accurate, the scale would be tipping in the other direction. Edited December 21, 2020 by brenthutch Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
brenthutch 383 #25 December 21, 2020 44 minutes ago, SkyDekker said: Doesn't look like he said those unprecedented damaging weather extremes and catastrophic warming of the planet would actually happen by the end of 2020? No, but we have now passed his turning point and have not stopped the rise of CO2. Mann is now fighting both the climate realists who say higher CO2 levels are no big deal AND the climate catastrophists who are claiming there is nothing we can do and we are all doomed. To keep the government money flowing he has to thread that needle. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/21/meet-the-doomers-some-young-us-voters-have-given-up-hope-on-climate Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites