History Channel quote

[deltron80 0]

"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

They put that quote up on the screen after a segment about a skydiving accident...I doubt that statistic is true and even if it is, it all depends on what they consider to be a "skydiver" and other factors.

Stuff like this probably gives the public the impression that one in 1,000 tandems die.

[grimmie 173]

http://www.skydivingfatalities.info/

How many jumpers do you think there are worldwide? If they are speaking about licensed jumpers they are probably in the ball park. According to this website there were 59 deaths in 2007.

[jtnesbitt 0]

For some reason I want to say the USPA gave a statement to the media after an accident in the past few months stating something like there are about 3 million skydives in the US every year. 59 into 3 million is still 59 more than we would all like but in terms of percentages is way low.

"If this post needs to be moderated I would prefer it to be completly removed and not edited and butchered into a disney movie" - DorkZone Hero

[PhreeZone 15]

There are about 36000 active registered skydivers in the US, our fatality average is upper 20's to low 30's every year. In other terms 1 out of every 1500 registered jumpers in the US will die every year.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[SpeedRacer 1]

see, but that's registered skydivers. It doesn't count those who do a tandem or make one or more AFF jumps just to see what it's like, & then don't go on to get licensed. But they are skydivers too.

Speed Racer
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[The111 0]

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"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

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There are about 36000 active registered skydivers in the US, our fatality average is upper 20's to low 30's every year. In other terms 1 out of every 1500 registered jumpers in the US will die every year.

In general I cannot stand when stats are used to "predict the future" in ways that they cannot. Every single one of us is unique case who approaches the sport in his own way and makes his own choices. We are not coins or card decks with purely mathematical probabilities.

If 1 out of 1000 skydivers died jumping last year, that says nothing about next year, nor does it say anything about my or your chances. There are so many variables that affect incidents and the largest one is almost always pilot error, and to tell any person they have a specific likelihood for pilot error is silly.

There is an ultra-conscious safety task force at work in my office building, warning people everywhere to walk down stairs carefully and not spill their coffee. I just walked past a sign in the break room today declaring that I have a 1 in 200 chance of dying from a fall at some point in my life (ironically, my chance might be higher ). But in general, to say "x" people will die from any sort of accident next year is foolish. Stats measure past events and are not the same as probabilities. Probabilities apply to card decks and coins.

www.WingsuitPhotos.com

[Squeak 17]

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"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

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There are about 36000 active registered skydivers in the US, our fatality average is upper 20's to low 30's every year. In other terms 1 out of every 1500 registered jumpers in the US will die every year.

In general I cannot stand when stats are used to "predict the future" in ways that they cannot. Every single one of us is unique case who approaches the sport in his own way and makes his own choices. We are not coins or card decks with purely mathematical probabilities.

If 1 out of 1000 skydivers died jumping last year, that says nothing about next year, nor does it say anything about my or your chances. There are so many variables that affect incidents and the largest one is almost always pilot error, and to tell any person they have a specific likelihood for pilot error is silly.

There is an ultra-conscious safety task force at work in my office building, warning people everywhere to walk down stairs carefully and not spill their coffee. I just walked past a sign in the break room today declaring that I have a 1 in 200 chance of dying from a fall at some point in my life (ironically, my chance might be higher ). But in general, to say "x" people will die from any sort of accident next year is foolish. Stats measure past events and are not the same as probabilities. Probabilities apply to card decks and coins.

"Statisitcally speaking" you might be wrong there especially when stats are used "predictively"

You are not now, nor will you ever be, good enough to not die in this sport (Sparky)
My Life ROCKS!
How's yours doing?

[SuFantasma 0]

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"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

They put that quote up on the screen after a segment about a skydiving accident...I doubt that statistic is true and even if it is, it all depends on what they consider to be a "skydiver" and other factors.

Stuff like this probably gives the public the impression that one in 1,000 tandems die.

"One of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping"... like any other phrase it is riddled with opportunities for interpretation. Consider the case when you are wearing a parachute on the way to altitude and the airplane experiences a malfunction resulting in 100% fatality of the occupants.... Question is: will the accident result in a skydiving fatality or a General Aviation (GA) fatality ...

I also agree that skydiving statistics and probabilities are two different matters. If a skydiver chooses "higer degrees of risk" such as swooping, inadeaquate safety procedures, poorly maintained gear (including aircraft), then the odds of a fatal outcomen are higher for that particular skydiver. It creates a predictability factor but has minimal bearing on the odds of any other skydiver (unless they share the same traits).

To put in contrast, the CDC published an study that 6.6 children in 1,000 are affected by autism... You will have to dig through the data to figure out the madness of the statement.

Y yo, pa' vivir con miedo, prefiero morir sonriendo, con el recuerdo vivo".
- Ruben Blades, "Adan Garcia"

[VectorBoy 0]

100% of jumpers will die... same a everybody else.

Lost a few to cancer, suicide, and being deployed in a war zone. Same as everybody else.

100% of all jumpers get a taste of the sky is what it should say. NOT like everybody else.

[bfilarsky 0]

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100% of jumpers will die... same a everybody else.

Lost a few to cancer, suicide, and being deployed in a war zone. Same as everybody else.

100% of all jumpers get a taste of the sky is what it should say. NOT like everybody else.

Well Said

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

They put that quote up on the screen after a segment about a skydiving accident...I doubt that statistic is true and even if it is, it all depends on what they consider to be a "skydiver" and other factors.

For all practical purposes, USPA membership is rquired if you want to skydive on a regular basis in this country. 30,000 members, 30 annual fatalities, 1 in 1000 fatality rate.

The actual number is higher if you include fatalities from the plane rides that are required for skydiving.

[virgigirlie 0]

"One out of every 1,000 skydivers will die while jumping."

is not the same as

"One out of every 1,000 USPA registered skydivers will die while jumping."

It's a statistic that scares people and doesn't tell them how many people die while skydiving because of their own actions or inactions. People who don't know anything about the sport (most people) will assume that 'chutes didn't open and people bounced. It's the same as using a statistic about race car drivers or dirt bikers to scare people who don't know any better. It's misleading and irresponsible.

"If you can't be a good example, then you'll just have to be a horrible warning." ~Catherine Aird

[LadiDadi 0]

I too would like to see the verbage changed on how the fatalities are reported.

I would like to see the statistics state

"1 out of every 100,000 skydives results in death"* Or whatever the number would be. The 1 in 100,000 formula is a standard health statistic formula.

While the numbers that are reported now may be accurate (I haven't a clue if they are or not), they are misleading. "One out of every 1,000" sounds morbidly scary. It doesn't take into account the average number of skydives done each year. It would be a difficult task to get that number but DZ's could report estimates.

It all really comes down to finding the statistic to support your cause. Anyone can do it. You can come up with a random statement and I'm pretty sure that somewhere there's a statistic to support your statement (and, no, that's not a dare to anyone).

I can tell you for a fact that the folks over at The History Channel are quite frothy at the mouth to make skydiving sound like the most dangerous thing you could ever possibly do and that we're all just human lawn darts. They do know that it isn't as dangerous as it sounds but they really do chomp at the bit to make it sound more dangerous than it actually is.

Here is an excerpt from an actual emal between myself and a programing exec at History:

Him: "You need to make it at least come across as being way more dangerous.

Me: "I understand that you want more of a 'danger' element to it but ... They're going to do a Diamond Track - that's the one we talked about where they go towards each other head first at ridiculous speeds - isn't that dangerous enough to the casual viewer?"

Him: "I'm not sure that the casual viewer will see it that way."

Me: "Even with helmet cams and a split screen??"

Him: "I'd just like to see it portrayed as a more dangerous sport"

Me: "Well... I could ask them to juggle chainsaws while in freefall and then we could stuff their rigs with rattlesnakes..."

Yeah... We left it at that for the moment.





*For comparison's sake - 1 in every 100,000 people in the US die of malnutrition.

If you can't laugh at yourself, I'll be happy to do it for you.
****************************
Be like the cupcake and suck it up.

[JohnRich 4]

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Me: "Well... I could ask them to juggle chainsaws while in freefall and then we could stuff their rigs with rattlesnakes..."

Now you've done it. Someone is going to actually want to DO that trick in freefall.

Why does he feel this pressing need to make skydiving look more dangerous? (Fricking whuffos...)

[LadiDadi 0]

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Now you've done it. Someone is going to actually want to DO that trick in freefall.

I'm a huge fan of Darwin so I see nothing wrong with this. Go for it. Thin out the shallow end. Trouble is that I can never get the image out of my mind of a chute opening and rattlesnakes raining down on someone's head. *shudder*

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Why does he feel this pressing need to make skydiving look more dangerous?

Because he's an idiot? I don't know. The thing is I kept telling him the same thing - "It is a very safe thing to do but it's a very *scary* thing for the vast majority of people to contemplate doing." Stupidly thinking that would be enough for him.

Bottom line - it sells. For fucks sake there was a show years back (a spoof but still) called 'When Cars Attack'. Fear sells.

With all of the banter back and forth between him and I, I invited him to go for a tandem with a friend of mine (instructor) to which he replied "No way in hell would I do that!!"

Soooo.... What you're telling me now is that it isn't dangerous but you're scared to try it. Riiiiight.

If you can't laugh at yourself, I'll be happy to do it for you.
****************************
Be like the cupcake and suck it up.

[JohnMitchell 14]

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59 into 3 million is still 59 more than we would all like but in terms of percentages is way low.

That's 59 deaths worldwide, vs. number of jumps in the US. That would only give you an accurate answer for each person making one jump per year. I figure USPA membership is around 30,000 folks. Add in another 5000 or so non USPA jumpers, maybe. Fatality rates run about 25-35 a year, giving you the odds of 1 in 1000 to maybe 1 in 1400 of getting killed in a year of jumping. Not great numbers, but only averages. Your personal chances of getting killed depend on a little luck and some personal choices of gear, training, type of jumps, etc.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Of the 3000ish CSPA members I would estimate 40-50% jump at least once in the US every year. I would guess that 5000 non USPA jumpers is low by an order of magnitude.

[airdvr 197]

I dunno. I'd bet that if we went back to making it seem more dangerous our numbers would actually grow. Someone told me once that the number of first jump students at a DZ actually increases after a fatality. Don't know if I beleive that.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[JohnMitchell 14]

I don't have any empirical evidence, but I've never seen a fatality really dent the flow of students. Luckily it's been years since we've had a fatality at any DZ I call home. >>>>>

[JohnMitchell 14]

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Of the 3000ish CSPA members I would estimate 40-50% jump at least once in the US every year. I would guess that 5000 non USPA jumpers is low by an order of magnitude.

By an order of magnitude? You think there are 50,000 active, year round, non-USPA jumpers in our country? We do have a fair number of foreign jumpers visit for a week or two to a month or so, but I don't think that number is far greater than the USPA's membership rolls.

Two other points:

1- Visiting jumpers, by definition, have less likely to get killed jumping in the US because of their limited time here.

2- Not all of the USPA's membership are active jumpers. That skews the odds to being more dangerous than we thought.

But hey, it's all just an estimate I made in my head, some way to quantify the risk we run. From my 30+ years in the sport, I will say that jumping from a plane is not as safe as driving to the DZ. I've lost many friends jumping, but few of them from auto accidents;

Or maybe skydivers just make incredibly safe drivers.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

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Of the 3000ish CSPA members I would estimate 40-50% jump at least once in the US every year. I would guess that 5000 non USPA jumpers is low by an order of magnitude.

By an order of magnitude? You think there are 50,000 active, year round, non-USPA jumpers in our country? We do have a fair number of foreign jumpers visit for a week or two to a month or so, but I don't think that number is far greater than the USPA's membership rolls.

Two other points:

1- Visiting jumpers, by definition, have less likely to get killed jumping in the US because of their limited time here.

2- Not all of the USPA's membership are active jumpers. That skews the odds to being more dangerous than we thought.

But hey, it's all just an estimate I made in my head, some way to quantify the risk we run. From my 30+ years in the sport, I will say that jumping from a plane is not as safe as driving to the DZ. I've lost many friends jumping, but few of them from auto accidents;

Or maybe skydivers just make incredibly safe drivers.

No, I didn't mean non-USPA jumpers are there year round. However as the USA is by far the No 1 destination for international skydivers the number of international jumpers who at least jump once is huge. The number we were initially comparing it to was USPA members. Since we have no data on how many jumps they made we must assume they at least intended on jumping at least once or they would not have renewed their membership, but that is all we know. Therefore the comparison is valid. (Attention grammar police: I know I started the sentence with a preposition but I am drinking and cannot think how to correct it).
Your point #1 works against my point. Your point #2 works in favour of it.

[JohnMitchell 14]

Both my points work against yours. And remember, all of the fatalities we are counting happen within the US. 52 foreign jumpers spending a week jumping here would count about as 1 active US jumper. Do you see my logic there?

[Andrewwhyte 1]

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52 foreign jumpers spending a week jumping here would count about as 1 active US jumper. Do you see my logic there?

Only if every USPA jumper lives on a 7 day a week DZ, does not have a job, and is independently wealthy. I know that when I visit the US I jump 25-40 times a week; do you think the average USPA jumper does?

[johnie 0]

I'LL TAKE THOSE ODD'S ! Well! it beats the hell out of the 100 percent chance that i will die of fucking bordom if i don't get my jump on! All for nothing but a smile.

No matter where you Go!"there you are"!

[JohnMitchell 14]

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I'LL TAKE THOSE ODD'S ! Well! it beats the hell out of the 100 percent chance that i will die of fucking bordom if i don't get my jump on! All for nothing but a smile.

+1 for the last 30 years.