Meso

For the record, the whole East Coast got off really easy with this, especially the NE. Just 6-12 hours before landfall she ingested plenty of dry air from the SW which weakened her quite a bit. Ironically as she made landfall in the OBX she intensified a bit and may have possible just been bordering category 2 hurricane. But at the same time, these hurricane force winds were extremely isolated and most places saw around 40-50mph sustained. When it hit New York it was just a tropical storm, high end tropical storm but a tropical storm none the less. The weakening was caused by more masses of dry air, shear and colder SSTs. She almost began to have a Nor'Easter appearance. While there may be areas hit by some damage, know that if the original forecast had held up, that damage would be a lot worse. The media over-hyped the storm as they usually do, which is dangerous and breeds complacency. There will be more landfalls this year with the peak season just starting, hopefully no one now thinks that because Irene hit and didn't do much damage, that it means that they shouldn't need to evacuate if a similar forecast is given. There's already Invest 92L out there which may become a depression today, and some models move it west towards to the east coast in about 12 days (subject to massive change) it will likely become Katia, Katrinas replacement name (6 year name rotation if a storm is retired)

The following scam has been reported: Click here to read more about these kind of scams. Remember: DO NOT do business with anyone who offers to send you payment for a higher amount than your selling price with the understanding that you'll send back the balance. Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be acting on behalf of a "client" or another "customer". Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be from Nigeria or West Africa If you agree to accept a check payment, then do not send anything, gear or "change" before the check cleared. And be careful, if you manage to clear a fraudulent check then you may be liable for the damages if the bank finds out later. Make sure your bank authenticates the check. If it sounds to good to be true, then it probably is.This username has been disabled.

What I fear the most, is that there are people who fear Muslim world dominance more than anything else.

To be honest, depending on how close it is to the ocean there may even be evacuations in that area. You may well see NYC evacuations if Irene maintains her strength, the storm surge could be as high as 20 feet in areas now, so basically anything under 20 feet in elevation could be under water, assuming it hits in high tide, and will be restricted to some bays, elsewhere 7-12 feet seems possible. Irene will likely only be approaching the NE coast on Sunday, but her size is huge and you may well be getting 4" rain in 6 hours on Sunday. In short, there is a very good chance said boogie will not happen. And that may be the least of the problems for the NYC area hah. EDIT: There was a few hours satellite blackout, but latest imagery is showing that Irene is encountering shear and is weakening. Can't yet tell if it's a trend or just a fluctuation.

It's also important to learn which models are good and which aren't, for example that link above has the BAM models in as well, and the BAMS for example is a shallow BAM model meant for weak systems, which Irene isn't, the BAMM is a medium depth system and the BAMD is the deep bam, they all perform weakly though. One could throw out all the BAM guidance for this system, rely on the ECMWF (euro), GFS, GFDL. The models are a very good example of 'the butterfly effect', if you have merely 1mb too low of a pressure entered into the algorithm, it can dramatically change the path, more so as time goes on. People always blame the weather guys on TV when they get something wrong, but people often don't realize that they're basing their forecasts off intense algorithmic models and a forecaster can only be as accurate as the models. Back to Irene, some 30mph winds reported around FL. Evacuations starting up in the NE cities. She took in some more dry air today but the new eyewall started to clear too, so it's quite conflicting whether she's strengthening or not. Regardless, she's really large and storm surge will be a big problem no matter how strong or weak she is from here and storm surge is almost always the main problem, wind related deaths are very rare.

Damn right, you better apologize. I have half the mind to ban you simply for linking to a crocs site from this forum :p Death to crocs (of shit) And yeah, I do think NB are better - crocs in general are worn by complete douchebags, while NB are just good athletic shoes. So far I've found mine better than the Nikes I have, at half the price. Also I wasn't talking about the running NB, more about the casual ones. Semi-Professional... I thought that meant just wearing shoes in the first place. I don't know that whole 'professional' world ;p

That's why I got tattoos, duh. It means my geek factor can be 10x higher than average without appearing as a complete virgin.

Weather is what I do If your profile location is up to date, you shouldn't have too much to worry about if it keeps on going as it's forecast to. You may see some squalls in the outer bands but winds will probably be around 30-40mph at most. Jupiter was getting 30mph earlier. But it should start moving slightly away from FL from now.

You can tell a lot about a person from their shoes, and crocs is not the kind of impression I would want to give. I'm quite big on New Balance, super lightweight and great ventilation.

Oooh, finally a topic I can actually contribute on with knowledge. I've been tracking Irene since she was a mere isobar on the GFS forecasting model about 2 weeks ago and she has kept me up all night over the past 3 days trying to understand her movement as there is no clear indication of where she is going yet (only a general one) - she was originally forecast by the models to pass over FL and into the GOM. Anyway, as it stands now Irene has just gone through an EWRC (eyewall replacement cycle) which lowered her intensity a bit while she was reorganizing her core. But pressures have fallen to around 950mb which should show some strengthening in the near future, pressures fall and the winds catch up to them. There's currently a Recon hurricane hunter plane doing missions and the latest report a few minutes ago was 117kt Flight level winds, which is a 85-90% reduction for surface winds from the height they are, so it still looks like a 100-105kt storm. Looking at latest IR sat imagery her core is starting to improve and she will likely strengthen more as she clears out her new eye. She was a bit jagged over the past 4 hours but is looking increasingly good. SST (sea surface temperatures) are high in her immediate path and she maintains great outflow. She will likely weaken a bit as she approaches the coast as dry air off the land and higher wind shear values will hamper efforts, SSTs also drop as it moves north (apart from the Gulf Stream). As far as her path is concerned, me and the other trackers I know have been kept up because of the flip flopping of both the dynamic and global models. She was forecast to hit FL then it was Georgia, then SC then NC then it was a miss and a Canada landfall, now the models are back at NC outerbanks. And these models have far more data than usual so these are about as accurate as you will see them in this case. The reason for the uncertainty is because of a shortwave trough which dips down moving east over the next few days, this second trough will decide the storms direction. If the storm is slightly slower the trough will be more east and a more east heading will happen, meanwhile if the trough is deeper it will cancel that, or if it's faster. The reliable models GFS, EURO, GFDL seem to be showing a NC brushing at the moment and then up towards Boston possibly, though this is subject to a lot of change especially due to the angle of approach. Storm surge is likely to be the big factor along the east coast over the weekend. You mentioned the Bahamas, I'm speaking to a person currently located in Nassau and they are saying that the eye is approaching them and they already have 10 second averages of hurricane strength. His kitchen window shutters were just ripped off 5 minutes ago and his fence blown down. Don't pay attention to the media though, I've been watching it over the past few days and the media is completely overhyping it in some cases, and in some areas. When it was forecast to miss even the OBX, some channels were having their doomsday scenarios. Anyone in the path - the most reliable source is always http://www.nhc.noaa.gov I've been tracking for 7 years now and this has been, thus far, the most difficult storm to predict in terms of path.

The following scam has been reported: Click here to read more about these kind of scams. Remember: DO NOT do business with anyone who offers to send you payment for a higher amount than your selling price with the understanding that you'll send back the balance. Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be acting on behalf of a "client" or another "customer". Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be from Nigeria or West Africa If you agree to accept a check payment, then do not send anything, gear or "change" before the check cleared. And be careful, if you manage to clear a fraudulent check then you may be liable for the damages if the bank finds out later. Make sure your bank authenticates the check. If it sounds to good to be true, then it probably is.This username has been disabled.

I know that's what I would do if I were one of them. If they have proper network monitor software they could see what pages you are accessing, then visit the pages themselves. Maybe they saw that you're calling them names and decided some punishment was in order.

Ironically, Hurricane Irene has a strong possibility of hitting the same general areas that the earthquake affected. Most model guidance has it brushing NC/VA and then up into the NE coastal states. Double the fun this week.

The following scam has been reported: Click here to read more about these kind of scams. Remember: DO NOT do business with anyone who offers to send you payment for a higher amount than your selling price with the understanding that you'll send back the balance. Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be acting on behalf of a "client" or another "customer". Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be from Nigeria or West Africa If you agree to accept a check payment, then do not send anything, gear or "change" before the check cleared. And be careful, if you manage to clear a fraudulent check then you may be liable for the damages if the bank finds out later. Make sure your bank authenticates the check. If it sounds to good to be true, then it probably is.This username has been disabled.

Strange... The fact that no one else has reported this makes me think it may be related to an issue your side, though from that screenshot, while I haven't used Opera much, it doesn't seem to be and seems to be associated with the data transfer of traveladvertising,com I will go ahead and forward it to the ad department. In the mean time, if anyone else experiences this problem please let me know!

All I can say is, it's about time these poor scapegoats got set free. Thanks to a flawed police investigation and a prosecutor who knew how to spin the event in the good old fear mongering ways of blaming Satanism. I mean all that matters is that people feel comforted that someone is being bars.

That's odd, can you please take a screenshot next time and attach it to this thread so we can work on it.

Is chocolate too girly for dudes to eat? I've come close to saying "I really feel like some chocolate" on several occasions, but then it strikes me that the only people I've ever heard use that line were females. :( It just makes me so... emotional...

The following scam has been reported: Click here to read more about these kind of scams. Remember: DO NOT do business with anyone who offers to send you payment for a higher amount than your selling price with the understanding that you'll send back the balance. Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be acting on behalf of a "client" or another "customer". Be suspicious of anyone claiming to be from Nigeria or West Africa If you agree to accept a check payment, then do not send anything, gear or "change" before the check cleared. And be careful, if you manage to clear a fraudulent check then you may be liable for the damages if the bank finds out later. Make sure your bank authenticates the check. If it sounds to good to be true, then it probably is.This username has been disabled.

Nothing quite like cracking open a cold one hey

Hey now guys, come`on... Stop being so prejudice... Dead girls need love too.

Thanks for letting us know, I have disabled that account now too.

I've pretty much seen everything there is to see on the internet, but the line "three 16" running down the length of my foot inserted under the toes and one running across from side to side in right side." made me gag a bit. DO NOT WANT!

In b4 30 page thread on religion!

I often think that journalists must have to battle a lot of demons in cases like that. Because as a journalist, your job is to capture the moment in it's rawest form, and not get yourself involved. But I'm sure that there are many cases where they live with the thought of "what if I had put down the camera and actually helped." I'm sure the thought of "Well at least if I capture the image and get it published it will perhaps help in stopping something similar in the future" helps a little bit.