Is Felix Baumgartner too good to be true?

[mikkey 0]

Is Felix too good to be true?

I have visited his web site and collected the following “facts” regarding the channel crossing:

Exit was at 10,000 Meter = 32800 Feet, deployment at 4000 Feet.

Temperature at altitude was minus 35 Celsius = - 31 F

Top speed was 360 Km/h = 225 MPH

Distance was 33 KM = 20.5 Miles

“Free fall” time 6 minutes 22 seconds

Span of his wing 1.8 Meters = 6 feet

Now lets play a little with these “facts” and see if this is too good to be true….


1) Look at the pictures taken at his landing and before exit. Felix has a thin jumpsuit on and a partially naked neck. I found the formula for wind chill temperature on the NWS web site.
According to the formula at –31 F and 225 MPH speed, the wind chill temperature is – 100 F, which his naked skin at his neck would be exposed to. I have known Special Forces soldiers who did do high altitude jumps and they always made sure that every inch of skin was covered! If not they would get real bad “burns” on the skin.

So how did you avoid this Felix?

2) Forward speed: In order to go 20.5 Miles in 6 minutes and 22 seconds Felix’ FORWARD speed had to be around 200 MPH in AVERAGE. Based on distance, exit altitude and deployment altitude he had to cover 3.73 feet forward for every foot he descended… His average fall rate based on the data was 54 MPH.
And all this with a small carbon wing…???? Which by the way does not look to be 1.8 Meter in span. Look at the picture on his web site at take off. AFAIK Felix is not very tall (not 6 feet) look at the wing, it has a smaller span then his height… it looks more like a 1.5 M ~ 5 ft span.

I do not know much about aerodynamics but this sounds to me as Felix just broke a few laws of physics?

Are there any engineers out there, who can comment? How does this compare to a birdman suit (forward speed and glide ratio)?

3) A few “minor” points:
a) Why was this not filmed by a plane from exit to deployment?
b) How did Felix “flare” from 200 + MPH forward speed to deploy the canopy?
c) Was it not just a little too convenient that is was so early in the morning and with cloud cover so no one saw anything from the ground????

My bullshit indicator is going crazy here. This was a huge media event all over the World. Was this really one of the greatest “stunts” or was this one of the greatest “illusions”? Is there any smart journalist out there with some resources who can dig a little deeper?

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When people look like ants - pull. When ants look like people - pray.

[quade 3]

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Is there any smart journalist out there with some resources who can dig a little deeper?

Unfortunately with the "facts" given there is no simple way to prove it didn't happen.

It's a bit like trying to prove that aliens didn't crash in Roswell. You can't prove something in the past didn't happen, only that it did.

Unfortunately, I don't think Felix proved he did anything. It certainly would have been within his means to provide proof, but to date he has not.

Also see http://www.dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?post=594353

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[mikkey 0]

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You can't prove something in the past didn't happen, only that it did.

But people with knowledge of aerodynamics could maybe prove it was impossible (?). We know what the wing looks like. We can take the picture of Felix under canopy and measure (if we know his height) the real span. Somebody must be able to say if this is aerodynamically possible or not - based on the "facts" provide by Felix.
I have this nagging feeling that it is impossible to get that distance out of the altitude available and the time in "fall" with the "lift" and glide ratio this wing can provide. Some engineer should be able to do a computer model? They can calculate how large a wing of a plane has to be...

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When people look like ants - pull. When ants look like people - pray.

[Zenister 0]

you dare question the great and powerful OZ???


actually i completely agree with you, i think if he had actually done what he claims to have there would be alot more published technical data to support it. The lack of doesnt mean he didnt, but it certainly gives the impression that all is not what it seems...

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Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[quade 3]

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Some engineer should be able to do a computer model? They can calculate how large a wing of a plane has to be...

Unfortunately, not with the information that has been provided.

Besides not knowing the actual wing size, we don't know its airfoil shape (cross section) and we don't know how much drag and lift Felix himself would have provided.

We also don't know how much Felix with the wing and rig weighed. This isn't as important -specifically- to glide ratio, but it is important in attempting to know how fast he could have gone.

All of that said, there have been a number of "back of napkin" calculations done by folks that say it is just about possible using BirdMan wing suits provided the upper winds were strong enough in the direction of flight. We've done them right here on this web site.

See THIS thread.

The issue is that the stunt was nothing particularly specatular or beyond the limits of what could be done. Felix came up with the funding to at least make it appear as if he was the first to have done it.

I wish he'd provide the proof as well, but that's probably not going to happen. Especially since one of his sponsors was a betting house that took bets on several factors such as whether he would actually make it or not or whether he had gone over a certain speed. I would think that normally you'd want to see proof that the feat had actually been accomplished in such a case, but since he's not offering up any proof -- it's possible that his sponsors don't want him too. Maybe they have a financial incentive to not reveal any actual facts. Who knows?

Of course, that's the conspiracy theorist coming out in me.

On a practical level, I don't think Felix gives a rat's ass what -we- think of his stunt.

His other sponsor is Red Bull and it's pretty freekin' clear they got exactly what they wanted out of the stunt. Clearly they wouldn't want to do anything to tarnish that. If it turned out that the stunt was faked -- well -- Red Bull doesn't give you wings, it give you bullshit. Not a very good tag line for a commercial eh?

So, anyway, long story short, Felix has made the claim, the media scooped it up and ran his practice footage as real footage, Red Bull got a lot of publicity.

It's a win-win situation . . . except possibly for the truth.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[NeedToJump 0]

I agree that it is questionable whether or not he did it, but in the end I don't think he (or RedBull) really cares all that much. It was meant to be a media/publicity event and was a huge success at that. Personally, after seeing the video of his exit, deployment and landing I'd be quite surprised if he actually flew all the way across. There's a great picture of him on his knees giving a big thumbs up after his landing...

Edit - it's a peace sign, not a thumbs up and I found the picture...

Wind Tunnel and Skydiving Coach http://www.ariperelman.com

[vidiot 0]

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Unfortunately with the "facts" given there is no simple way to prove it didn't happen.

Actually there might be one: ATC records their radar data for 30 days. Should be interesting to check the track of the drop plane. :-)

My Logbook

[TrickyDicky 0]

Also, as there was total cloud cover, how could he see where he was going. Yes he could have looked at the GPS in the plane and got a starting direction, but when hes out what can he use as a heading? A slight error at the beginning would have put him a long way off course.

But anyway, I dont think there are many people that have actually jumped out of a plane with wings. Yes he may be lying, but as people have said it got the sponsers the publicity they wanted, impressed the wuffos and Im sure he enjoyed it. Even if he cant actually travel that fast Im sure the wings were an interesting experience.

UK Skydiver for all your UK skydiving needs.

[ScottishJohn 25]

if you look at the video especially the flyby there are 2 planes. A skyvan ? and a smaller slower plane Cessna ?

I think he jumped from the skyvan and used the smaller spotter plane to set his direction. Smaller plane uses compass (GPS ?) to fly across the channel above cloud all felix has to do is follow the spotter plane or fly in the same direction.

I don't know if this is what actually happened but it is a plausible expenation..

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If you think my attitude stinks you should smell my fingers

[JeffD 0]

I dunno but I found this quote from someone who claims to be the developer of the skyray.

about 3rd or 4th post from the bottom.

http://dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?do=post_view_flat;post=587701;page=1;sb=post_latest_reply;so=ASC;mh=25;

I cant fathom the temperature argument. I ride a motorcycle and at 50F doing 70mph on the highway I would freeze if i wore what he did. Even with 3 pairs of pants, sweater,jacket, 2 pairs of gloves etc... I still get numb fingers. Now you want to talk about -100f no way.

[DYEVOUT 0]

http://dropzone.com/cgi-bin/forum/gforum.cgi?do=post_view_flat;post=587701;page=1;sb=post_latest_reply;so=ASC;mh=25;

clicky.

----------------=8^)----------------------
"I think that was the wrong tennis court."

[billvon 2,434]

>According to the formula at –31 F and 225 MPH speed, the wind chill
>temperature is – 100 F, which his naked skin at his neck would be
>exposed to. I have known Special Forces soldiers who did do high
> altitude jumps and they always made sure that every inch of skin was
> covered! If not they would get real bad “burns” on the skin.

I have jumped in -34F (winter at Eloy at 24,000 feet) with my neck from my jumpsuit to my helmet exposed. My dive speeds were around 200mph from my Protrack. Others jumped with normal (not full face) helmets and goggles. There were no burns. Chris can confirm the temps I believe. The one problem we _did_ have was instant icing on visors; one breath out and you were blind.

> Based on distance, exit altitude and deployment altitude he had to
>cover 3.73 feet forward for every foot he descended…

This is certainly possible. Such an L/D is easily achievable with hang gliders, ultralights and even large RC powered planes when gliding.

>b) How did Felix “flare” from 200 + MPH forward speed to deploy the canopy?

Pull the nose up.

[nigel99 150]

This all got me thinking - just went to the website of his and downloaded the video of the "delta wing" test flights.

I am no longer a current skydiver but it sure as heck doesn't look to be a realist altitude when the video of the smoke trail terminates? It seems to me that the smoke trail - goes in - and the video jumps to an open canopy - no deployment at that I could see at all?

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[pilotdave 0]

I can't watch the video you're talking about right now (at work) but I've seen plenty of videos of him, including deployments. Those openings don't look like any fun.

Some videos are available at skydivingmovies.com in /from_tv/german_tv/ and in /wingsuit/.

As far as the channel crossing, I can't believe he simply faked it. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that some of the numbers floating around are way off, but I believe he really did it.

Dave

[quade 3]

The current video on Felix's web site is NOT of the channel cross attempt. It's simply a promotional tool.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Meatbomber 0]

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if you look at the video especially the flyby there are 2 planes. A skyvan ? and a smaller slower plane Cessna ?

no actually a Pilatus PC9

[goose491 0]

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It's a bit like trying to prove that aliens didn't crash in Roswell. You can't prove something in the past didn't happen, only that it did.

Hmmmm I am reminded of a phrase uttered by nearly every skydiver I have ever known. It goes a little something like this:

"If there isn't video, it didn't happen."

WTF With a 'record' attempt like this, who wouldn't get vid? Hmmmm.

My Karma ran over my Dogma!!!

[JeffD 0]

Well I was doing some reading and From the video it shows him jumping from a SKYVAN right?!?

Well according to...http://www.luftfahrtmuseum.com/htmi/itf/ssvan.htm...the ceiling is 22,000ft hmm....

[quade 3]

Don't be confused by the term service ceiling. In the U.S. at least, that means the altitude above which the aircraft will no longer be able to climb faster than 100 feet per minute. The absolute ceiling will probably be considerably higher, but take longer to get to.

Further, we don't know (but could probably easily find out) if this particular SkyVan has the original type engines or if they were swapped out at some point for ones with more horsepower. More horsepower can and usually does mean a faster climb rate, a higher service and absolute ceiling.

I believe the SkyVan in question is fairly well known. I coulda swore that I saw PINK!

Maybe somebody with intimate knowledge of PINK can fill in the blanks.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[Meatbomber 0]

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Further, we don't know (but could probably easily find out) if this particular SkyVan has the original type engines or if they were swapped out at some point for ones with more horsepower.
I believe the SkyVan in question is fairly well known.

It was PINK, and it has the "Super -2" Conversion Engines.

Drop Alt as confirmed by London ATC FL306. Took us only 30 minutes to get there :)

[mikkey 0]

Hmmm, Meatbomber, were you the pilot? If so can you confirm more details and also tell us why Felix has not published any details that proof this jump (especially no video)?

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When people look like ants - pull. When ants look like people - pray.

[ScottishJohn 25]

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no actually a Pilatus PC9

Thanks , I didn't get a good look at it.

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If you think my attitude stinks you should smell my fingers

[nigel99 150]

I realise it wasn't of the channel crossing and I was commenting on the fact that the "freefall" kind of goes on until the ground!! I know the video cuts to an opening - but hey I've got editing software too

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[Tonto 1]

A small Cessna with a decent rate of 58MPH going forward at 200mph? You think he followed that? That's WAY over VNE for a Cessna... (Edit. OK - Now know it was a PC-9... Pilatus what? PC6 is a Porter)

The freeze factor - 6.5 min is a long time.

Failure to release GPS start point and finish point.

I smell something... so here's a story.

A turkey is chatting to a bull.

Hi Mr Bull. I dream about one day being able to fly. I have the wings, the feathers, everything... but I just don't seem to be able to do it.

Mr Bull says. Eat my droppings. They're packed with nutrients. You'll be at the top of that tree before you know it.

So the turkey tries it. After a week he's in the lower branches. By the end of the month, he's at the top of the tree. Filled with elation, he gives his best "WooooHooooo!" which in Turkey sounds like "GobbleGobble!"

The farmhouse window slams open. Farmer Brown cocks his shotgun and fires. The turkey falls to the ground. Dead.










Moral of the story. Bullshit may get you to the top - but it won't keep you there.

t

It's the year of the Pig.

[Tonto 1]

Yeah. But you were exposed for around a min. He was for around 6.... There's a difference there... No?

t

It's the year of the Pig.