Approx 1 jump in 20000 ends in Death?

[fundgh 0]

I recently received products that I ordered from a mail order supplier of gear, and there was a warranty/warning flyer included that stated that 1 jump in every 20,000 result in death. That seems a little high of an occurance rate to me. Does this make sense to anybody? They state in a footnote that the information came from U.S.P.A. reports.

...FUN FOR ALL!

[Vertifly 0]

It doesn't sound that far fetched. Although, they probably make it very high to cover their butts in a court room. KnowhatImean?

[Blahr 0]

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I recently received products that I ordered from a mail order supplier of gear, and there was a warranty/warning flyer included that stated that 1 jump in every 20,000 result in death. That seems a little high of an occurance rate to me. Does this make sense to anybody? They state in a footnote that the information came from U.S.P.A. reports.

The DZO in Hazelton, PA (Don Kellner) has over 34,000 logged jumps. I was just talking on the phone with him the other day so I know he isnt dead

Statistics need to be viewed in a very general sense, not taken literally.
I was under the impression, though, that the number was considerably higher than 20,000. I only have 57 jumps so far so I'm not worried

[DeNReN 0]

34,000...Damn....was he born in freefall?

[Kramer 0]

According to rather reliable statistics, 29 people died last year, out of 3.2 million skydives. That's about 1 in every 102,000 according to my oft-faulty math.

-Kramer

The FAKE KRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMER!!!!!!!!!

[fundgh 0]

That is what I mean. Your numbers sound more realistic to me.

...FUN FOR ALL!

[michaelflying 0]

eat Drink and make merry for tomorrow you die.

www.skydivekzn.co.za

[Kris 0]

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The DZO in Hazelton, PA (Don Kellner) has over 34,000 logged jumps.

Doesn't Bill Dause over at Lodi have over 34,000 jumps, too?

I don't think those two got the 1 in 20,000 memo yet. Let's hope it stays lost in the mail.

Sky, Muff Bro, Rodriguez Bro, and
Bastion of Purity and Innocence!™

[quade 3]

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According to rather reliable statistics, 29 people died last year, out of 3.2 million skydives. That's about 1 in every 102,000 according to my oft-faulty math.

Well, the math is a little faulty . . . 3,200,000/29=110344.8 . . . but worse than that is the assumption the numbers are accurate to begin with. They are estimates at best.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[NoShitThereIWas 0]

Hmmmm, that would mean that every time we jump out of an airplane, we are taking a statistical risk of 0.00005 or 5^-5 chance of death. That is an interesting numerical value and seems like it would be a ligitimate guess if nothing else. I wonder how accurate USPA's data is regarding number of jumps made at any given time. I'm sure they would have the most accurate data out there but I would imagine there would probably be a small amount of error associated with it just because I don't think there is any way to know the exact number of jumps made at any given time.

I'd bet that overall though, that kind of error would probably be pretty insignificant in the big picture.

Roy Bacon: "Elvises, light your fires."

Sting: "Be yourself no matter what they say."

[WrongWay 0]

Hey, it'll be a while before I hit those numbers, so let's keep jumping and not worry about it!!

Wrong Way
D #27371 Mal Manera Rodriguez Cajun Chicken Ø Hellfish #451
The wiser wolf prevails.

[Tonto 1]

It's got nothing to do with the numbers.

When you go in - you will die. Every time.

The ground always knows where you are.

t

It's the year of the Pig.

[neilly 0]

well here is a comforting thought,

If a canopy fails to deploy every 750 jumps (statistically) then a double mal happens every
750 x 750 = 562500 jumps, therefore only one in five of the (statistical jumps ) jumps inwhich you die will be a double mal,

Doesnt that make you feel better, Cos the other 4 are all your or someone elses fault,

Fly like an aardvark

[Tonto 1]

3954 jumps
17 chops

One in 232 dives.

Did you count wraps and entanglements?

t

It's the year of the Pig.

[mikemc 0]

From when I started reading this site there has been lots of talk of statistics, how about we get all get together and start up a REAL statistical database?

According to dz.com there are 617 dz's in the world at least one person from each dropzone must know about this site and read it?!

Lets do something about it rather than moan when we are misquoted by outside organisations.

Can a page be added to each dz on the dz.com dz database?

[PhreeZone 15]

A page that lists what? Number of jumps at the DZ? Some places keep those numbers away from their compitition since then everyone else will know how business was for them and can organize their business accourdingly.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[mikemc 0]

i should have been clearer,

a page that list number of jumps and number of incidents.

[Blahr 0]

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The DZO in Hazelton, PA (Don Kellner) has over 34,000 logged jumps.

Doesn't Bill Dause over at Lodi have over 34,000 jumps, too?

I don't think those two got the 1 in 20,000 memo yet. Let's hope it stays lost in the mail.

I think the last issue of Parachutist showd Bill Dause with a grand or two less based on the number of diamond wing award things.

Like Bill Dause has google-diamond wings and Don Kellner has googleplex-diamond wings.
These guys have been running neck and neck since I made my first jump back in 1989 but I believe that Don has the upper hand. He holds the Guinness record and has for as long as I've known him.

[Emma 0]

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then a double mal happens every
750 x 750 = 562500 jumps

I doubt that the stats for a reserve failing are as high as those for a main failing, given the difference in the way the two are packed.

Plus, you have a mal on your main, unless you have balls of steel you're gonna chop it. If you have a mal on your reserve you're likely to make the best of a bad situation... And not necessarily die.

But if my assumption is wrong I'm gonna start paying my rigger £4 instead of £35 a pop...

[NoShitThereIWas 0]

That is a good idea, the problem is who is going to cooperate and who is not? Who is going to keep accurate records and who is not? Who is going to report their jump numbers and who is not? How about the people who do one tandem, go home and never register with USPA?

It would not be too hard to keep track of jump numbers made to a fairly accurate level. If each and every DZ in the US (or worldwide depending on how large you want your population to be) kept a year to date log record of every jump made at that DZ and number of fatalities, number of incidents, etc. it could be done. But then what about all of the DZs who aren't USPA affiliated? There are a lot of what ifs and it would require regulation and the cooperation of every skydiver who ever makes at least one jump

Roy Bacon: "Elvises, light your fires."

Sting: "Be yourself no matter what they say."

[mikemc 0]

I am sure at the end of each day/week every dz knows how many drops have been made?

I dont think it makes a difference what kind of jump it is, tandem, first jump or experienced. They all count as a drop?

[JumpJumpJump 0]

In VERY broad, round figures, there are approximately 30,000 USPA members in the US. There are approximately 30 deaths each year from skydiving. It seems that one out of a thousand skydivers will die each year.
Not too good of odds.

[Jayruss 0]

ah dieing after 20,000 jumps wouldn't be a bad life hu?

__________________________________________________
"Beware how you take away hope from another human being."
-Oliver Wendell Holmes

[funks 1]

I think alot of you are missing what this is saying. It is not saying that YOU PERSONALLY can go 20,000 jumps without dying, it is saying that every 20,000 jumps all across the us or world or whatever, someone dies. In otherwords, there could have been 19,999 safe jumps and that next jump you make will statistically increase your odds of dying.

I dont buy into it, but thats what it is saying.

[kallend 1,646]

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I think alot of you are missing what this is saying. It is not saying that YOU PERSONALLY can go 20,000 jumps without dying, it is saying that every 20,000 jumps all across the us or world or whatever, someone dies. In otherwords, there could have been 19,999 safe jumps and that next jump you make will statistically increase your odds of dying.

I dont buy into it, but thats what it is saying.

No- that is not at all what it means.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.