Risk, Skydiving & Fatalism

[nigel99 150]

With all the recent debate regarding downsizing and risk in skydiving I have been thinking about the general attitude towards risk within the community.

Over the years a number of skydivers that I have known has believed to a certain degree in fatalism. A recent comment in the blue skies forum also mentioned to quote "we are born with a certain number of heart beats"

While fatalism is irrational as it largely portrays our fate as being beyond our control certain cultures have a strong belief structure based on fatalism and their actions are therefore considered strange to us. A good example is Bali where they ride bicycles with goods piled so high that they can't see where they are going - however they believe that all accidents are fate and therefore don't bother with risk mitigation.

Could it be that the irrational risk takers (some would argue skydiving is an irrational risk in itself) merely have a stronger sense of fatalism and therefore arguments about risk are irrelivant? This then raises the following questions:
- If fatalism is fact should we stop worrying about risk mitigation and enjoy ourselves?
- Is fatalism a form of dillisionment, mental illness or coping mechanism in dealing with death and should it be treated?
- If somoeone is taking un-necessary or extraordinary risk is their belief structure based on fatalism and therefore the risk argument redundant and what "means" of preventing them killing themselves is available?

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[BIGUN 1,075]

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Over the years every skydiver that I have known has believed to a certain degree in fatalism. A recent comment in the blue skies forum also mentioned to quote "we are born with a certain number of heart beats"

Over the years, every skydiver that I have known has believed to a certain degree in determinism.

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[CSpenceFLY 1]

Too much of what you are asking is subjective. Someone elses un-necessary risk is not the same as mine. I believe that you can't go through life worrying about what "might" happen to you next.

[jakee 1,259]

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Over the years every skydiver that I have known has believed to a certain degree in fatalism. A recent comment in the blue skies forum also mentioned to quote "we are born with a certain number of heart beats"

Well, then I guess you haven't met me, or probably most of my friends!

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[tombuch 0]

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Could it be that the irrational risk takers (some would argue skydiving is an irrational risk in itself) merely have a stronger sense of fatalism and therefore arguments about risk are irrelivant? This then raises the following questions:
- If fatalism is fact should we stop worrying about risk mitigation and enjoy ourselves?

I disagree with your concept of skydivers as fatalists. Rather, I think we assess risk and then seek to mitigate it as best we can. We, as a class, believe strongly in our ability to affect the outcome of every jump. With that, there is a broadly accepted understanding that even best practices will sometimes be insufficient to prevent injury or death, but always we always strive to control those risk factors as best we can.

I think even those who appear to take extraordinary risk will generally be carefully evaluating and mitigating those risks. There are some folks who don't do a very good job of assessment (I was once in that category as a bulletproof 500 jump wonder), but I think even those jumpers would tell you they understand the risks and believe they have them under control.

Tom Buchanan
Instructor Emeritus
Comm Pilot MSEL,G
Author: JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and Easy

[nigel99 150]

Firstly I am sorry I seem to have mistakenly generalised.

I certainly don't mean to imply that extraordinary risk is a bad thing when planned for, but I am questioning whether the few hard headed individuals who consistantly disregard safety advice could have a different viewpoint and decision making process with regards to risk assessment - making arguments about risk a waste of time?

I guess that you are saying that rather than fatilism the people who seem to ignore the risks - believe that they are the cream of the crop and therefore more competant than everyone else?

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[Butters 0]

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... people who seem to ignore the risks ...

.. often don't know or understand the risks.

"That looks dangerous." Leopold Stotch

[jtval 0]

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Firstly I am sorry I seem to have mistakenly generalised.

I certainly don't mean to imply that extraordinary risk is a bad thing when planned for, but I am questioning whether the few hard headed individuals who consistantly disregard safety advice could have a different viewpoint and decision making process with regards to risk assessment - making arguments about risk a waste of time?

I guess that you are saying that rather than fatilism the people who seem to ignore the risks - believe that they are the cream of the crop and therefore more competant than everyone else?

TOM BUCH replied to your first post very well. I dont even need to repeat anything.

Butters summed up your second post well enough in one sentence.

those hard headed individuals you are talking about either don't know the risk and should be spoken to/with or they know the risks and don't care about their and your safety...and should be spoken with.

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[UDSkyJunkie 0]

I find it unlikley that most jumpers could be considered fatalists. If a rookie swooper is told he needs to stop doing stupid shit, and he responds with "we all have to die sometime..." or "God will take me when my time is up" (both of which I have seen said), he may be trying to convey that belief, but that doesn't mean they actually believe it deep down.

If someone truly believed their fate was pre-determined, why would they still have an AAD? Or a helmet? Or an audible? Even a visual altimeter? If they truly believed, none of these things would be viewed as necessary, as they won't help when their time comes, and god will protect them until their time comes.

No, I believe fatalism is yet another tool that a few people use to justify decisions and behaviors that a voice in the back of their mind is telling them are very bad ideas. It is no different from quotes like "well, he died because he made a mistake, and I'm very talented" or "it's ok because I'm a very conservative pilot" or "well, I've been doing this for a year and I'm not dead yet", ect.

"Some people follow their dreams, others hunt them down and beat them mercilessly into submission."

[CSpenceFLY 1]

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Firstly I am sorry I seem to have mistakenly generalised.

I certainly don't mean to imply that extraordinary risk is a bad thing when planned for, but I am questioning whether the few hard headed individuals who consistantly disregard safety advice could have a different viewpoint and decision making process with regards to risk assessment - making arguments about risk a waste of time?

I guess that you are saying that rather than fatilism the people who seem to ignore the risks - believe that they are the cream of the crop and therefore more competant than everyone else?

This is completely different from your original post.

The people that you speak of are what I refer to as next. They are usually the ones that we have the bounce BINGO going for.

[nigel99 150]

Thanks UDSkyJunkie you summed up what I was trying to get across in my posts. It certainly seems like the attitude is less common than I thought based on the strength of everyones responces.

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No, I believe fatalism is yet another tool that a few people use to justify decisions and behaviors that a voice in the back of their mind is telling them are very bad ideas. It is no different from quotes like "well, he died because he made a mistake, and I'm very talented" or "it's ok because I'm a very conservative pilot" or "well, I've been doing this for a year and I'm not dead yet", ect.

Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived.

[tombuch 0]

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I guess that you are saying that rather than fatilism the people who seem to ignore the risks - believe that they are the cream of the crop and therefore more competant than everyone else?

Not really, but close.

Take a guy who likes to open at 2,000 feet. He knows it is riskier than opening at 3,000 feet, but believes he has the skill to deal with whatever problem might occur. That belief may be based on some level of personal experience opening at that altitude, or it may be that he is assessing his perceived skill against the skill level of others who have opened at 2,000 feet.

The same goes for a jumper who sometimes likes to open at 1,000 feet. Or lower.

When he evaluates risk, he will look at the probability of something bad happening, and the potential outcome(s). It may be that he is under calculating the probability of a problem, under calculating what the worst case outcome is, or under calculating the probability of a worst case outcome. Or, he may be appropriately calculating those factors.

Risk assessment can be very technical and exact in that we can know with near certainty the probability of an outcome over time or class, but assessment of individual skill is inexact, and we can not know with certainty the outcome of a specific event prior to completion.

Jumpers who take extraordinary risks may be making solid judgments, or perhaps not. To better evaluate the risks we need to take a broader look at the specific behavior, the skill and demonstrated experience of the individual, the potential outcomes including the impacts to the drop zone, the general public, and other stakeholders. The risk evaluation of an observer may be different than the evaluation of the jumper. One isn’t necessarily correct and the other wrong, but the understanding of risk and skill, and the balance points may be different.

Managing risk is a tricky thing, especially for S&TA’s and DZO’s who may have significantly different levels of risk tolerance than those of regulated participants. Risk isn’t absolute, and acceptable risk varies greatly.

That doesn't mean discussion is a "waste of time." Rather, it means the discussion needs to be carefully framed. For example, the risk taker may not be calculating the imposed risk on other stakeholders, and this needs to be pointed out. Likewise, skill assessments that are questionable should be pointed out. Sometimes the discussion will change the process of assessment, and sometimes not. Sometimes the behavior will be tolerated, and sometimes not. Discussion and mutual understanding, or at least mutual participation, is an important part of changing risky behavior and the assessment of that behavior.

From the standpoint of a former S&TA, there were times when I told a jumper that he couldn't do something "for the following reasons...." And other times when I said I thought the behavior was inappropriate under my risk assessment, but that I would allow it given the reasoned explanation. That's the approach of a mature and experienced jumper who was once admittedly a hard headed and out of control near-statistic. Perhaps part of that is a lifetime of experience that tells me being dead sucks, but being almost dead sometimes sucks more. And that understanding changes the calculus of risk management.

Tom Buchanan
Instructor Emeritus
Comm Pilot MSEL,G
Author: JUMP! Skydiving Made Fun and Easy

[chrismgtis 0]

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Rather, I think we assess risk and then seek to mitigate it as best we can. We, as a class, believe strongly in our ability to affect the outcome of every jump. With that, there is a broadly accepted understanding that even best practices will sometimes be insufficient to prevent injury or death, but always we always strive to control those risk factors as best we can.

Agree.

The difference between many skydivers and regular people is that we (most of us) know exactly what the risks are, we know what we must do to minimize them and we take all the necessary precautions to do so.

Then again, we all make mistakes. I'm jumping without an AAD right now, as outspoken as I am about safety. Even though I know it's dangerous, I accept the risk and realize that I must take extra precautions (staying extra aware about my altitude and staying conscious), even though in the end it might not prevent my death. I can't prevent myself from going unconscious obviously - but what I can do is understand the extra risks and determine whether they are acceptable or not. In the end, it might not prevent an accident as with anything else.

Rodriguez Brother #1614, Muff Brother #4033
Jumped: Twin Otter, Cessna 182, CASA, Helicopter, Caravan

[fpritchett64 0]

I know I'll probably get a lot of heat for this, but here goes.

If fatalism is real, if we all have a set time that we're going to pass, or a set number of injuries that we're going to receive, then we should be able to make jumps without any life saving devices, including a parachute and walk away unharmed.

With this in mind, who would be willing to participate in an otter load going to 14k and jumping without a parachute.

We should all survive right? No, but then again, maybe it was everyones time to go on that load, so lets try again, well there goes 20 more friends.

I think fatalism is a bunch of crap, maybe not the most educated post, but I think it gets my opinion across

[DSE 3]

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I know I'll probably get a lot of heat for this, but here goes.

If fatalism is real, if we all have a set time that we're going to pass, or a set number of injuries that we're going to receive, then we should be able to make jumps without any life saving devices, including a parachute and walk away unharmed.

With this in mind, who would be willing to participate in an otter load going to 14k and jumping without a parachute.

We should all survive right? No, but then again, maybe it was everyones time to go on that load, so lets try again, well there goes 20 more friends.

I think fatalism is a bunch of crap, maybe not the most educated post, but I think it gets my opinion across

IMO, your first words tend to describe fatalism correctly, your second words seems to describe destiny.
Fate and destiny are different concepts in my mind. If you believe in fate/kismet/pre-ordination, that's fine; you're resigned to whatever happens to you regardless of your actions (irresponsible view, IMO).

Destiny, on the other hand...we can change.
If you don't throw your hackey, walk towards the light. If you do toss your hackey, walk towards the packing area.

[fpritchett64 0]

Maybe I don't completely understand fatalism, but from what I've gathered here, and heard other places. It's the belief that we have a set time that we'll pass or a set amount of injuries that we'll receive in a lifetime.

This sounds to me like you could spend your whole life without ever worrying about risks (fearless) because regardless of what you do to try and prevent your death, if it's time, it's time. Therefore, why would people who believe in fatalism worry with life saving devices, such as a parachute, a seat belt, medicine, etc.

[KIA 0]

I'm only a student but since starting skydiving and realising all the safety precautions it has changed my devil may care bike riding on the streets for the better.

I used to think when my times up, it's up, but now realise life is good.

And I have a son I want to see grow up.

[docdialtone 0]

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If fatalism is real, if we all have a set time that we're going to pass, or a set number of injuries that we're going to receive, then we should be able to make jumps without any life saving devices, including a parachute and walk away unharmed.

OK, here I go:

What about someone sitting in their living room watching the tube and a plane crashes through their roof or a car through their wall and they die.

Or if someone has a main and reserve mal and lands in a blackberry field and lives.

Maybe someone with double mals that lands in a parking lot and lives.

Maybe youre driving on a bridge that you have driven on everyday for years and all of the sudden it collapses, you die but others on the same bridge live.

How about a child that dies of SIDS at 3 weeks!

If you decide to jump from a plane with no rig then someone or something told you that it was ok, it's your time to go.

I believe in the numbered heartbeats theory!

[fpritchett64 0]

What about someone sitting in their living room watching the tube and a plane crashes through their roof or a car through their wall and they die.
Freak accident


Or if someone has a main and reserve mal and lands in a blackberry field and lives.
Softer dirt, both main and reserve are most likely out, which is going to slow them down to some degree to make the impact in the soft blackberry field survivable, but not without severe injuries.

Maybe someone with double mals that lands in a parking lot and lives.
Same as above, something is most likely out and slowed them down enough to make it survivable, but I'm sure injuries are going to be more severe than the above statement. If they're both total mals and they land in a parking lot, or should I say splat in a parking lot, yea, you know as well as I do what the outcome will be.


Maybe youre driving on a bridge that you have driven on everyday for years and all of the sudden it collapses, you die but others on the same bridge live.
It all has to do with where you were located on the bridge when it collapsed and what fell on you, or what you fell on, etc that caused your injuries to be fatal. Again, freak accident.


How about a child that dies of SIDS at 3 weeks!
It's a condition that we know hardly anything about that just happened to pick that child, doesn't mean thats the way it was meant to happen, that child just happened to be the unfortunate one that SIDS picked.


If you decide to jump from a plane with no rig then someone or something told you that it was ok, it's your time to go.
For some reason you know that I would go if I jumped without a rig, because it's a life saving device, why did I ever need a rig for all of those prior jumps, why do the guys that have thousands of jumps need a rig, they should have been able to make those jumps unharmed, and eventually when it's their time, they'll receive fatal injuries that just can't be explained because it never happened before.

I believe in the numbered heartbeats theory!

Now, my question to you: Do you jump with a rig? Why? Do you drive with your seatbelt on? Why? Why don't you drive blindfolded? Why, if you received life threatening injuries would you go to the hospital?

So, according to your numbered heartbeats theory, life saving devices, urgent medical attention, etc are just unnecessary scams to take your money.

[raymond_jones 0]

not replying directly to you thread.................

if somebody thinks they have 9 lives like a cat or has no fear whats so ever should not be in the sport of skydiving. this # of heart beats thing is pure and utter bullshit. i am in agreence with "if it's your time than it's your time" type of mentality, but onlt if you've done everything within your power to prevent it. (to include quitting skydiving) otherwise your wasting you breath on death ears. if you skydive because of no fear and your willingness to die then eat a bullet on the ground and prove your man/woman hood. be a real "fatailist".
"stunts" which they are called have "safety measures" that must be acheived before being tried.
jumping without a chute is retarded in my eyes yet glorified in others. yet the only ppl that have live from doing it have had a plan. hmmm..... fatailism.

"your the shit till you eat it !!!!!!!! damn that wall hurts..."

[popsjumper 2]

Fatalism...bah
Risk...bah


I got 7 lives left.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[fpritchett64 0]

Maybe I confused you with my post. I'm not trying to go jump without a parachute, nor talk anyone else into doing it. Anyone who did do it, even with a plan would be dead.

The point that I'm trying to get across is that if you believe in the numbered heartbeats theory, then you should be able to jump without a parachute the same number of times that we all skydive with parachutes and land unharmed just as many times.

However, we know that would never happen.

[iamsam 0]

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The point that I'm trying to get across is that if you believe in the numbered heartbeats theory, then you should be able to jump without a parachute the same number of times that we all skydive with parachutes and land unharmed just as many times.

why should that be so? couldn't you just be reaching your last heartbeat at moment of impact?

I believe in destiny and fate to a certain extent, it doesn't mean you have no control whatsoever.

Just trying to make the point to all the posters in this thread who suggest jumping without rig etc, that you could do this and it still be your fate /destiny. Anyway, life is for living so why would you want to do that? Applying logical arguement to life doesn't work. Life is not generally logical.

but what do I know

[jakee 1,259]

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Just trying to make the point to all the posters in this thread who suggest jumping without rig etc, that you could do this and it still be your fate /destiny.

Which reduces the argument to "Your fate is to die whenever you die" which makes it a pointless truism. It is also irrelevant to the OPs theory that true fatalism causes some skydivers to take extra risks because they think the time of their death is already fixed and immobile.

As an aside, if you think that your death is predestined, yet also a result of the actions you take then you cannot believe in free will. At least, not without being completely inconsistent.

Do you want to have an ideagasm?

[iamsam 0]

Yes I would agree with 'your fate is to die whenever you die' and yes I would agree this is a pointless truism. Kind of my point.

your aside -

'if you think that your death is predestined' - I don't and never said I did.

'if you think that your death is predestined, yet also a result of the actions you take then you cannot believe in free will' - who knows? impossible to prove.

but what do I know