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brenthutch

EVs, Aspirations vs Reality

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45 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Just wait Bill, just wait. The trend is not your friend my friend.

Perhaps you could hold your breath until people stop buying EV's.  That might work!  And get you some much-desired attention.

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6 minutes ago, billvon said:

Perhaps you could hold your breath until people stop buying EV's.  That might work!  And get you some much-desired attention.

Not everyone will stop, but most people will opt out. I don’t see EV adoption exceeding 15% in the next year. Fanboys are all in and normal folks are saying “not right now”

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8 hours ago, tkhayes said:

if there is a dollar to be made from it, someone will step up and provide that capacity. 

People with 20 to 30 minutes to kill will need something to do. Business will find things for them to spend money on.

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2 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

People with 20 to 30 minutes to kill will need something to do. Business will find things for them to spend money on.

After they spend the extra money on an EV and accounted for the depreciation, they will have no more money to spend 

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(edited)
5 hours ago, brenthutch said:

It is going to be a much harder lift to convince folks to replace their affordable, long range, towing capable, quickly refueled, easy repaired, value retaining vehicles with expensive, quickly depreciating, slow to recharge, expensive to fix, limited range and towing capacity EVs with dubious infrastructure support.

Only 7% of pickup truck owners (and far less sedan drivers) tow "frequently."  75% of pickup truck owners tow one or less times per year.  For sedan drivers, it is much less frequent.  If you spend most of your time driving long distance, you might save some time "fueling" by using gasoline -- otherwise, your total "fueling" time per year will be less with electric.  

I drive a gas car.  If things go as they should (no wrecks and no premature engine or transmission disasters), I will never replace my car.  I had my previous one 21 years, and it still ran/shifted/drove like new.  One exception is that if cars become truly self driving, I will buy buying one.

Edited by headoverheels
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8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

No that sensible rule will prevent the carnage the US is experiencing from unattended gas pumps. AKA zero

This misinformation about EV depreciation needs to stop.

Myth Buster: EVs depreciate faster than ICEs

 

Brent googled 'EV depreciation' and read the AI-generated google snippet from a random website, with no source of the data, that "There have been reports that EVs lose up to 52% of their value just after three years as compared to ICE vehicles' 39.1%." Even the quote just says "there have been reports" and does not provide them.

 

There's too little data about EV depreciation right now, but with their much lower maintenance costs it will probably be lower than ICE vehicles. Probably much lower.

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10 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The UK is getting to be quite the nanny state.

You can have trigger locks on fuel pumps in the UK, but only if the fuelling is done by an attendant. 
 

Nearly all fuel stations are self service these days however. 

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“The Tesla Model S topped the list of EVs that depreciated most over five years; it lost 55.5% of its value, according to the analysis. Rounding out the top five were the Chevrolet Bolt EV (-51.1%), the Nissan Leaf (-50.8%), Tesla Model X (-49.9%) and Tesla Model 3 (-42.9%)”

“For its analysis, iSeeCars looked at over 1.1 million used cars from the 2018 model year that were sold between November 2022 and October 2023”

https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/07/evs-depreciate-more-than-any-other-vehicle-type--study-says

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(edited)
35 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

“For its analysis, iSeeCars looked at over 1.1 million used cars from the 2018 model year that were sold between November 2022 and October 2023”

From the report itself, "Electric vehicles are still relatively new to the market, which limits the ability to track their 5-year depreciation."

35 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Rounding out the top five

The report only had FIVE electric cars in the report. The top 5 vehicles that depreciated the most in the study, were all ICE (except for 1 hybrid). The Tesla Model S was 19th:

image.png.bbd8de654f18c2cfc555dc59a07d5aab.png

Edited by olofscience

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(edited)

“all of the EVs below have been in production for at least five years and have lost more value than the 38.8 percent average across all used cars.”

Ranking of EVs by 5-Year Depreciation – iSeeCars Study
Rank Model Average 5-Year Depreciation
1 Tesla Model 3 42.9%
EV Average 49.1%
2 Tesla Model X 49.9%
3 Nissan LEAF 50.8%
4 Chevrolet Bolt EV 51.1%
5 Tesla Model S 55.5%


That difference in depreciation goes a long way in canceling out any fuel savings.

Edited by brenthutch

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2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

“all of the EVs below have been in production for at least five years and have lost more value than the 38.8 percent average across all used cars.”

Ranking of EVs by 5-Year Depreciation – iSeeCars Study
Rank Model Average 5-Year Depreciation
1 Tesla Model 3 42.9%
EV Average 49.1%
2 Tesla Model X 49.9%
3 Nissan LEAF 50.8%
4 Chevrolet Bolt EV 51.1%
5 Tesla Model S 55.5%

so what?

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13 hours ago, gowlerk said:

The UK is getting to be quite the nanny state.

I used to go up into Canada on a regular basis. These days I pull a refrigerated trailer, and my company doesn't take those into Canada.
The first time I fueled in Canada, I thought the pump was broken. They have a rule up there that both pumps don't go at the same time.
I did my usual 'start the driver's side, go around, get the passenger side going, lift the hood and check fluids' process. When the passenger side shut off, I couldn't understand why the driver side hadn't filled.
I hung the passenger side up and was going to go in and ask when I realized that the driver side had resumed. 
It took a minute for me to understand what was going on.

11 hours ago, headoverheels said:

Only 7% of pickup truck owners (and far less sedan drivers) tow "frequently."  75% of pickup truck owners tow one or less times per year.  For sedan drivers, it is much less frequent...

I had an SUV (see below) that had a 7700# towing capacity. In the 8 1/2 years I owned it, I can count the times I towed a trailer on one hand.
Some people tow on a regular basis. 
Most don't.

 

 

1 hour ago, olofscience said:

From the report itself, "Electric vehicles are still relatively new to the market, which limits the ability to track their 5-year depreciation."

The report only had FIVE electric cars in the report. The top 5 vehicles that depreciated the most in the study, were all ICE (except for 1 hybrid). The Tesla Model S was 19th:

image.png.bbd8de654f18c2cfc555dc59a07d5aab.png

Yup. Expensive, 'exotic' luxury cars depreciate a LOT faster than 'regular' cars.

Back in 2015, on a Porsche forum I participate in, I learned that a 'ten year old Cayenne with 100k on it can be found for under $20k.'

It took a bit of looking, but I found an 05 Turbo with 103k on it for a bit under $16k. Sticker price (window sticker was in the inch thick stack of maintenance records) was $93k.
Over 80% in ten years.
The Porsche Panamera is similar.

Bentleys are worse. I know a guy (on the Porsche board) who got a 'not terribly old' Bentley for $50k. $300k plus new. 

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(edited)
On 12/14/2023 at 3:59 PM, billvon said:

Yep.  But that half hour walk to the gas station is going to suck - especially carrying 20 lbs of gas back with you.  No one I know has an oil pump and a refinery in their garage.

The chances of your vehicle being bone dry in your driveway are nil.  So are the chances of your EV being 100% discharged.  Point being the amount of time involves to bring them to whatever percentage range you choose.

The answer seems to be home charging.  In my area it will be ~$2000 for a setup installed.  That's roughly 40 fill ups before you break even.  And we don't have an EV yet.  Not a doable thing for people how make $15/hr.

If you really want the changes to happen you'll need to government to pay for the home conversion.

Edited by airdvr

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1 hour ago, airdvr said:

The chances of your vehicle being bone dry in your driveway are nil.  So are the chances of your EV being 100% discharged.  Point being the amount of time involves to bring them to whatever percentage range you choose.

Well, no.  Point being that I can get home, plug in, and be at 100% (or 80%, or wherever you set it) in the morning with no trips to a gas station.

Quote

The answer seems to be home charging.  In my area it will be ~$2000 for a setup installed. 

A level 1 charger comes free with the car, and will charge at 5 MPH.  So if you drive less than 60 miles a day on average you don't need anything else.  (The average American drives 40 miles a day.)

A level 2 charger (16A) costs $99 from Amazon and can plug into a dryer outlet.   That's 14 miles per hour, or about 160 miles a night.  Need a splitter for your electric dryer and car?  That's another $80.  Need an automatic switch so you never have to risk accidentally charging the car at the same time you are charging?  That's $240.

A 32 amp charger costs $149 and gets that rate up to 28 miles per hour, or 320 miles a night.

Once you get to 40 amp chargers now you need specific outlets.  The parts for a 50 amp outlet are $50 from Home Depot, and the charger itself is $250.  As you mention, if you get a random electrician to install it, it could cost $2000 because he's not going to be into saving you money.

Quote

If you really want the changes to happen you'll need to government to pay for the home conversion.

Perhaps.  There was a program here in San Diego where if you bought one of several cars the city would install a charger for you at no cost.

Or just require a 50 amp outlet in the garage for new homes.  They already install 40 amp dryer outlets as a matter of course.  If installed at the time of construction, additional costs are almost nil.

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4 hours ago, airdvr said:

...The answer seems to be home charging.  In my area it will be ~$2000 for a setup installed...  

Who's charging that kind of money for an install?

And exactly what is being installed?

A new Chevy Bolt comes with a Qmerit 'standard' installation of a Lv2 Charger.

There are restrictions and limitations, not everyone gets it for free.


Basically you need space & capacity in the panel for a breaker and not have the panel so far from the car that it takes 'too much' materials to get the power there. 

Note: I didn't go this way, I bought used so I didn't qualify.

Personally, I had a 30 amp, 240v circuit I wasn't using. It was for a large window A/C unit that I never used in the 20 years I've owned my house, Adapting it to charge the car was simple (and figured in the calculations that decided I'd go electric).

Less than $200 for  charger that could adjust amps (I needed one that would charge at 24 amps to safely use the 30 amp breaker).
A 14-50 outlet to match the charger, replacing the 6-30 for the A/C.
Conduit to run the wiring through.
WIre (I had a bunch of 10ga wire to use, which is one reason I kept the 30 amp breaker instead of upgrading to a 40).

Since the existing 6-30 outlet was 3 wire, and the 14-50 is 4 wire, I just unhooked the 6-30 line at the box and put 4 wires (2 hot off the breaker and 2 to the ground/neutral bar).
Run it all to the back door, mount the outlet to the wall, cut a corner out of the bottom of the door to run the cord out. 

Materials (not including the wire that I already had) were less than $50.
Install was supervised by a licensed electrician who owed me a favor.

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3 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Who's charging that kind of money for an install?

And exactly what is being installed?

A new Chevy Bolt comes with a Qmerit 'standard' installation of a Lv2 Charger.

There are restrictions and limitations, not everyone gets it for free.


Basically you need space & capacity in the panel for a breaker and not have the panel so far from the car that it takes 'too much' materials to get the power there. 

Note: I didn't go this way, I bought used so I didn't qualify.

Personally, I had a 30 amp, 240v circuit I wasn't using. It was for a large window A/C unit that I never used in the 20 years I've owned my house, Adapting it to charge the car was simple (and figured in the calculations that decided I'd go electric).

Less than $200 for  charger that could adjust amps (I needed one that would charge at 24 amps to safely use the 30 amp breaker).
A 14-50 outlet to match the charger, replacing the 6-30 for the A/C.
Conduit to run the wiring through.
WIre (I had a bunch of 10ga wire to use, which is one reason I kept the 30 amp breaker instead of upgrading to a 40).

Since the existing 6-30 outlet was 3 wire, and the 14-50 is 4 wire, I just unhooked the 6-30 line at the box and put 4 wires (2 hot off the breaker and 2 to the ground/neutral bar).
Run it all to the back door, mount the outlet to the wall, cut a corner out of the bottom of the door to run the cord out. 

Materials (not including the wire that I already had) were less than $50.
Install was supervised by a licensed electrician who owed me a favor.

new homes in the 70's did not come with enough kitchen outlets, nor did they have an outlet above the range in the cupboard for the microwave that you were eventually going to hang above the stove.

Now EVERY home comes with than and more kitchen circuits and outlets.  And every kitchen renovation also includes all these things if they are not already installed.  And that costs more money.  And it became code so it is required and it is 'big bad government' forcing their will on us, using BH's logic.

The issue of charging capabilities will solve itself in time.  It is just not a hurdle worth even discussing given the cost savings in fuel that EVs have over gas.

Not sure why we are debating this issue with the troll

 

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(edited)
15 minutes ago, tkhayes said:

new homes in the 70's did not come with enough kitchen outlets, nor did they have an outlet above the range in the cupboard for the microwave that you were eventually going to hang above the stove.

Now EVERY home comes with than and more kitchen circuits and outlets.  And every kitchen renovation also includes all these things if they are not already installed.  And that costs more money.  And it became code so it is required and it is 'big bad government' forcing their will on us, using BH's logic.

The issue of charging capabilities will solve itself in time.  It is just not a hurdle worth even discussing given the cost savings in fuel that EVs have over gas.

Not sure why we are debating this issue with the troll

 

If you were paying attention, you would know that much of the “refueling savings” is gobbled up by the increase in depreciation.  $10,000 dollars buys a lot of gas. I don’t know why you have to resort to name calling, I’m just sharing the realities of the market place.

BTW that big bad government driving up costs prices folks on the margin out of the market. 

Edited by brenthutch

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1 hour ago, tkhayes said:

The issue of charging capabilities will solve itself in time.  It is just not a hurdle worth even discussing given the cost savings in fuel that EVs have over gas.

Not sure why we are debating this issue with the troll

I've learned quite a bit in this thread that makes me even more likely to go EV.

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55 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I've learned quite a bit in this thread that makes me even more likely to go EV.

Me too. Now I need one like I need a sharp stick in the ear but that was the same standard that caused me to buy the pick-up truck that I hate to take downtown and try parking but that I can use to haul or tow everything that I never haul or tow. By golly, I think I'll take advantage of that government program that allows me to write off 45% of the cost in year 1. 

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2 hours ago, tkhayes said:

new homes in the 70's did not come with enough kitchen outlets, nor did they have an outlet above the range in the cupboard for the microwave that you were eventually going to hang above the stove.

Now EVERY home comes with than and more kitchen circuits and outlets.  And every kitchen renovation also includes all these things if they are not already installed.  And that costs more money.  And it became code so it is required and it is 'big bad government' forcing their will on us, using BH's logic.

The issue of charging capabilities will solve itself in time.  It is just not a hurdle worth even discussing given the cost savings in fuel that EVs have over gas.

Not sure why we are debating this issue with the troll

 

My house was built in the 1950s, but the electrical service (along with plumbing) was updated nicely before I bought it.

Not perfect, but the setup is adequate for my needs, even with the new EV.

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