Taking stock

[wolfriverjoe 1,340]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Let’s wait and see what NOAA has to say before we make ourselves look foolish.  I’ll update next week.

Oh piffle.

You don't need NOAA to look foolish.

You do it very well all by yourself.

[billvon 2,400]

51 minutes ago, wolfriverjoe said:

You don't need NOAA to look foolish.

Our progress thus far:

BH crows about how good his predictions are:

===================================
Well Sports Fans, another year has come and gone so it is time to see how well my predictions fared. . . .

Global temperatures will fail to rise in response to record CO2
Check (didn’t even make the top five)
I could go on however it is time to go out for dinner, I’d say I had a pretty good year.
====================================

Turns out it IS in the top five.  BH:

=================================
Let’s wait and see what NOAA has to say before we make ourselves look foolish.
=================================

With a backtrack like that, he could be manufacturing French tanks.

 

[brenthutch 383]

3 hours ago, billvon said:

Our progress thus far:

BH crows about how good his predictions are:

Global temperatures will fail to rise in response to record CO2
Check (didn’t even make the top five)

====================================

Turns out it IS in the top five.  BH:

=================================
 

 

Just waiting for the official numbers to be tallied by NOAA 

[brenthutch 383]

4 hours ago, wolfriverjoe said:

Oh piffle.

You don't need NOAA to look foolish.

You do it very well all by yourself.

We will see…

[lippy 771]

8 hours ago, brenthutch said:

Yep, as I said we will just have to wait and see their year-end wrap up.  Stay tuned.

I guess you learned nothing from your Red Wave prediction and subsequent month-long silence.  

[brenthutch 383]

On 1/10/2023 at 9:05 PM, lippy said:

I guess you learned nothing from your Red Wave prediction and subsequent month-long silence.  

The Red Wave swept the Ds from power and removed the gavel from Pelosi’s evil clutches. My month long absence was due to an overly enthusiastic moderator.  (I won’t mention names, however she gave me a month long time out for describing the attributes of the AR platform on a forum which specifically lists the topic of firearms as appropriate) Try again 

In the meantime, I give you this 

https://climatechangedispatch.com/the-costly-and-foolish-fantasy-of-closing-coal-plants/
 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by brenthutch

[lippy 771]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

In the meantime, I give you this 

https://climatechangedispatch.com/the-costly-and-foolish-fantasy-of-closing-coal-plants/
 

 

Wow, a link to an article on a climate-denial website that denies climate science!  I'm reeling from the shock of it all!

[billvon 2,400]

37 minutes ago, lippy said:

Wow, a link to an article on a climate-denial website that denies climate science!  I'm reeling from the shock of it all!

Next thing you know, ihatetaylorswift.com will have an article that is somewhat disparaging of Taylor Swift!  Such shocking possibilities.

[brenthutch 383]

On 1/10/2023 at 12:37 PM, lippy said:

Weren't you bragging about NOAA's 2022 data last week?  

Not bragging, just going out on a bit of a limb and predicting… let’s see how I did.
 

“Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2022 was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 57.0 degrees F (13.9 degrees C) — the sixth highest among all years in the 1880-2022 record.”

https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record

looks like I was right…again.

 

[Phil1111 911]

On 1/10/2023 at 8:05 PM, lippy said:

I guess you learned nothing from your Red Wave prediction and subsequent month-long silence.  

Its just too bad that every time he's proven to be wrong. That a months silence doesn't follow. He would be gone 700-800 months a year!

[winsor 186]

28 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Its just too bad that every time he's proven to be wrong. That a months silence doesn't follow. He would be gone 700-800 months a year!

Sounds like a PA to me.

[lippy 771]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Not bragging, just going out on a bit of a limb and predicting… let’s see how I did.
 

“Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2022 was 1.55 degrees F (0.86 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 57.0 degrees F (13.9 degrees C) — the sixth highest among all years in the 1880-2022 record.”

https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record

looks like I was right…again.

 

You can take it as some sort of 'victory' in the ridiculous war you're trying to wage using twisted facts.....OR, you could read the FIRST FUCKING SENTENCE in the article...bolding added

 

Quote

The planet continued its warming trend in 2022, with last year ranking as the sixth-warmest year on record since 1880, according to an analysis by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

 

[lippy 771]

1 hour ago, winsor said:

Sounds like a PA to me.

Woke cancel culture gone MAD!!!!

[olofscience 421]

2 hours ago, brenthutch said:

looks like I was right…again.

According to NASA, "A separate, independent analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded that the global surface temperature for 2022 was the sixth highest...NOAA scientists use much of the same raw temperature data in their analysis and have a different baseline period (1901-2000) and methodology. Although rankings for specific years can differ slightly between the records, they are in broad agreement and both reflect ongoing long-term warming." https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-says-2022-fifth-warmest-year-on-record-warming-trend-continues

 

So no, you're not.

[olofscience 421]

1 hour ago, lippy said:

You can take it as some sort of 'victory' in the ridiculous war you're trying to wage using twisted facts

Actually Brent's prediction was "no record warming", not hitting the top 5 - he can't make predictions that specific. He only added that when the NOAA said it was unlikely due to the La Nina.

Still, NASA and Copernicus ranked it 5th warmest, and NOAA 6th, which is pretty damn hot for a La Nina year.

Also, don't ask Brent what's the official NOAA stance on climate change. He'll suddenly need to watch the football or something.

[brenthutch 383]

29 minutes ago, olofscience said:

According to NASA, "A separate, independent analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) concluded that the global surface temperature for 2022 was the sixth highest...NOAA scientists use much of the same raw temperature data in their analysis and have a different baseline period (1901-2000) and methodology. Although rankings for specific years can differ slightly between the records, they are in broad agreement and both reflect ongoing long-term warming." https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-says-2022-fifth-warmest-year-on-record-warming-trend-continues

 

So no, you're not.

Cherry pick much?  
NOAA said 2022 ranked sixth, which means not in the top five, which means I was/am correct…checkmate!

Since it is The beginning of January, it seems a good time for my 2023 predictions.

1 Despite trillions of dollars wasted on lowering CO2 emissions, I predict emissions will continue to rise this year.

2. Despite ever rising levels of CO2 I predict weather related disasters will remain within the range of historical norms.

3. Full sized pickup trucks will outsell all EVs combined in the US market

4. Polar bear population will continue to remain stable 

5. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from its 2012 low

6. Deployment of renewables will not only fail to replace fossil fuels, it won’t even be able to meet growing demand for electricity, resulting in yet another record year for coal consumption.

7. I predict yet another year without record warming, I’ll even go out on a limb and say it won’t even make the top five.

Edited January 13, 2023 by brenthutch

[olofscience 421]

2 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

Cherry pick much?  
NOAA said 2022 ranked sixth, which means not in the top five, which means I was/am correct…checkmate!

You didn't make the "top five" prediction. It wasn't yours to begin with, so stop claiming checkmate.

Your prediction was, "No record warming". That's it.

[olofscience 421]

59 minutes ago, brenthutch said:

5. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from its 2012 low

Why Arctic sea ice? As your friend Slim King recently found out, if floating sea ice melts it doesn't change the sea level at all. Blew his mind!

In the Antarctic, ice melted to near-record lows. Nice how you cherry-picked the Arctic.

 

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

7. I predict yet another year without record warming, I’ll even go out on a limb and say it won’t even make the top five.

6th warmest while having a La Nina is actually a record, so you're already quite wrong on 2022. But the La Nina is now gone, so let's check back on this next year.

 

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

I predict emissions will continue to rise this year.

This is the most brain-dead "prediction" of all. "I predict the sun will rise tomorrow, checkmate!" You need to stop arguing with that lib in your head.

[Phil1111 911]

6 minutes ago, olofscience said:

... You need to stop arguing with that lib in your head.

I had to clean my keyboard of coffee because of that. Do you really think there is room for any liberal thinking in Brent's head. When its overfilled with FOX dogma?

[CygnusX-1 42]

1 hour ago, brenthutch said:

Since it is The beginning of January, it seems a good time for my 2023 predictions.

1 Despite trillions of dollars wasted on lowering CO2 emissions, I predict emissions will continue to rise this year.

2. Despite ever rising levels of CO2 I predict weather related disasters will remain within the range of historical norms.

3. Full sized pickup trucks will outsell all EVs combined in the US market

4. Polar bear population will continue to remain stable 

5. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from its 2012 low

6. Deployment of renewables will not only fail to replace fossil fuels, it won’t even be able to meet growing demand for electricity, resulting in yet another record year for coal consumption.

7. I predict yet another year without record warming, I’ll even go out on a limb and say it won’t even make the top five.

1. This is a measurable prediction - thank you. CO2 emissions will be higher than 2022 levels. Good start we have a measurable metric.

2. "...will remain within the range of historical norms". Please define "within the range" we want actual numbers. And what are considered weather related disasters? Just hurricanes? Or droughts? Or floods? Or heat waves? Or cold waves? Earthquakes? Locusts? I swear it was not my fault! Sorry got sidetracked paraphrasing a movie quote. But please define either in actual numbers or percentages which type of disaster and what you consider to be within range.

3. Please specify which pickup trucks you consider full size so we can track their sales. Also what do you consider an EV? Is it just BEV? Hybred? Plug-in Hybred? Do you include H2 - won't really add to the numbers but just want to be clear. Also are these only new sales or are you including the used market for both pickup trucks and EVs?

4. What does remain stable mean? If they increase or decrease by 10%, is that stable? 2%? 15%?

5. What does continue to recover mean? Does that mean that the sea ice level will be greater than 2022? About the same as 2012-2022? Decrease slightly form recent levels? Or are you going to claim success if the sea ice does not drop below 2012 levels?

6. Ok I think we now all  understand that what you are looking for in order to be wrong about this prediction is that renewables in 2023 will replace ALL forms of fossil fuel usage. We will no longer use coal, gas, oil and transition to 100% renewables in the next year. Congratulations! I think we all will predict that. Now you have two separate predictions. Do you mean that renewable generation will not cover the additional demand for electricity in 2023? Or are you saying that new renewable power generation "plants" will not be designed, built, and put into service in 2023 to cover the additional  electricity demand. Finally will you except defeat if coal consumption (world-wide?? only in the US? Canada only? UK only? Europe only? Greenland?) is not at an all-time high? Meaning that no year in recorded history has there been more coal consumed? Or is it just another "high" year, and if it is just the latter please specify a number so we have a measurable metric.

7. Almost got this one. Please define top five. Which top five? Who's list are you going to use? And what geographical region if not implicit to the study. 

[olofscience 421]

7 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

I had to clean my keyboard of coffee because of that. Do you really think there is room for any liberal thinking in Brent's head. When its overfilled with FOX dogma?

It's the only way he "wins", really, to create a caricature liberal in his head that he can argue against.

Like how he "predicts" that emissions will continue to rise in 2023. Literally NOBODY is predicting otherwise, so why make that "prediction"? So he can "win", he can't really win otherwise.

[olofscience 421]

6 minutes ago, CygnusX-1 said:

2. "...will remain within the range of historical norms". Please define "within the range" we want actual numbers.

Good effort, but unfortunately Brent's "predictions" relies on being vague. You're not going to get numbers out of him.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, CygnusX-1 said:

1. This is a measurable prediction - thank you. CO2 emissions will be higher than 2022 levels. Good start we have a measurable metric.

2. "...will remain within the range of historical norms". Please define "within the range" we want actual numbers. And what are considered weather related disasters? Just hurricanes? Or droughts? Or floods? Or heat waves? Or cold waves? Earthquakes? Locusts? I swear it was not my fault! Sorry got sidetracked paraphrasing a movie quote. But please define either in actual numbers or percentages which type of disaster and what you consider to be within range.

3. Please specify which pickup trucks you consider full size so we can track their sales. Also what do you consider an EV? Is it just BEV? Hybred? Plug-in Hybred? Do you include H2 - won't really add to the numbers but just want to be clear. Also are these only new sales or are you including the used market for both pickup trucks and EVs?

4. What does remain stable mean? If they increase or decrease by 10%, is that stable? 2%? 15%?

5. What does continue to recover mean? Does that mean that the sea ice level will be greater than 2022? About the same as 2012-2022? Decrease slightly form recent levels? Or are you going to claim success if the sea ice does not drop below 2012 levels?

6. Ok I think we now all  understand that what you are looking for in order to be wrong about this prediction is that renewables in 2023 will replace ALL forms of fossil fuel usage. We will no longer use coal, gas, oil and transition to 100% renewables in the next year. Congratulations! I think we all will predict that. Now you have two separate predictions. Do you mean that renewable generation will not cover the additional demand for electricity in 2023? Or are you saying that new renewable power generation "plants" will not be designed, built, and put into service in 2023 to cover the additional  electricity demand. Finally will you except defeat if coal consumption (world-wide?? only in the US? Canada only? UK only? Europe only? Greenland?) is not at an all-time high? Meaning that no year in recorded history has there been more coal consumed? Or is it just another "high" year, and if it is just the latter please specify a number so we have a measurable metric.

7. Almost got this one. Please define top five. Which top five? Who's list are you going to use? And what geographical region if not implicit to the study. 

2. We will still have floods, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires, they will just be no worse than in the past (on a global scale)

3. I’ll keep it simple Ford F series Chevy Silverado Dodge Ram.

4. Within 2% of the current population 

5. Given the prediction by “climate scientists” that it would be ice-free by the summer of 2013 and was in an irreversible death spiral, anything above 2012 will be a win

6. Renewables will not even keep pace with increased demand and coal use will continue to set records globally of course (I don’t think the climate system cares about what country is doing what)

7. Top five globally as ranked by NOAA

(good questions BTW)

Edited January 13, 2023 by brenthutch

[kallend 1,623]

6 hours ago, olofscience said:

Good effort, but unfortunately Brent's "predictions" relies on being vague. You're not going to get numbers out of him.

So long as you continue to play his game, he succeeds.

[brenthutch 383]

1 hour ago, kallend said:

So long as you continue to play his game, he succeeds.

I will succeed regardless.

(And that is why you blocked me. You could not deal with the ignominy of being schooled by a simple hayseed from the heartland)