Gun Policy & Law Enforcement: Survey Results

[rushmc 18]

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Well, hey, if they want to oppose background checks, they should be willing to pay the price for going against what 90% of Americans want.

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Senators Lose Support After Opposing Gun Background Checks, Poll Shows

Posted: 04/29/2013 11:54 am EDT

Senators in several states who voted earlier this month against increasing background checks for gun buyers have since seen their approval ratings noticeably drop, according to new polls released Monday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) net approval rating dropped 16 points, as she shed much of her previous cross-party appeal. Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) saw his numbers dive 18 points, from a positive to a negative rating.

Not all of the change can be attributed to the vote. Portman, for instance, saw his approval drop among Republicans when he announced his support for gay marriage in March. But in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada and Ohio, at least 60 percent of voters supported background checks, and many expressed disappointment with politicians who voted otherwise.

Fifty-two percent of Arizona voters said they were less likely to support Sen. Jeff Flake (R) for reelection due to his "no" vote, while 46 percent of Nevadans said the same of Sen. Dean Heller (R). More than a third of voters were less likely to back Portman as well as Alaska Sens. Mark Begich (D) and Murkowski. A previous PPP poll found that Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) also saw her ratings tumble 15 points, likely due in part to her vote against background checks.

Much of the lost support comes from independent or moderate voters.
=====================

Again
I support background checks
Just not the ones Reid and cohorts suggested

All those do is make criminals of already gun owning law abiding peopled

So here it depends how the question is asked and the info presented

Which was shown in another thread

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 18]

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That is a large group by any polling measure dont you think?

Don't you think that any survey where you only have 3% response rate adds significant bias? This is not the same as a 3% sample size. When you selected someone to be part of your sample (in this case the sample size is actually 400k) you better make sure they respond.

You should know that ensuring randomization of the sampled subjects is crucial, and therefore, getting such a low rate of response pretty much guarantees skewing of results.

But you would know all that being a 6 sigma professional right?

So, when gallup or some other do a poll of a 1000 registered voters, you have the same opinion?

After all, what percentage whould that be?

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[regulator 0]

Sampling a tiny percentage of the population and then extrapolating that into saying that 90% of the country agrees is complete bullshit in my opinion. You can drink the kool aid all you want though.

[Remster 24]

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That is a large group by any polling measure dont you think?

Don't you think that any survey where you only have 3% response rate adds significant bias? This is not the same as a 3% sample size. When you selected someone to be part of your sample (in this case the sample size is actually 400k) you better make sure they respond.

You should know that ensuring randomization of the sampled subjects is crucial, and therefore, getting such a low rate of response pretty much guarantees skewing of results.

But you would know all that being a 6 sigma professional right?

So, when gallup or some other do a poll of a 1000 registered voters, you have the same opinion?

After all, what percentage whould that be?

You could have had a significant survey (95% at 5%) of law enforcement professional with a properly randomized sample size of less than 400. But you know that, right?

Remster

[rehmwa 2]

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Does being a certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt mean anything to you?

I know what "Lean" is in terms of engineering. Been Trained.

I know what Six Sigma is (I'm a master black belt in a Fortune 100 company in fact).

Haven't seen the term "Lean Six Sigma" before. But the two philosophies are very related to each other.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[Andy9o8 0]

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Sampling a tiny percentage of the population and then extrapolating that into saying that 90% of the country agrees is complete bullshit in my opinion. You can drink the kool aid all you want though.

You already got thumped in the last thread over that.

[billvon 2,405]

>Sampling a tiny percentage of the population and then extrapolating that into saying
>that 90% of the country agrees is complete bullshit in my opinion.

But RushMC's extrapolation is rock solid. The response I expected.

[kelpdiver 2]

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So, when gallup or some other do a poll of a 1000 registered voters, you have the same opinion?

After all, what percentage whould that be?

you're not seeing the difference between random sampling and self selection.

Website polling that lets anyone (registered or worse, anyone) vote will always bias towards people who care about the issue enough to complete the survey. For open polling, you'll see leadership mail its people to 'get out the vote.' End result is whatever count of participants you have - they are not representative of the greater body. To be very specific - a poll that entirely consists of Brady and NRA membership is not the same as the American people.

When Gallop does its polling, it doesn't just call once and give up if no answer. It will try a few times to make contact. They, and polling in general, has had to adapt to the fact that people increasingly don't have home phones, and this tends to be younger people.

In contrast to others, I suspect that polling the membership of the LEO association may be fairly representative of the line officers (no REMFs or elected figures like sheriffs). Polling them is very different than polling Police Chiefs of major cities.

[toolbox 0]

I do not believe the results of the polls on US citizens being for more restrictive gun legislation are accurate,since those polls usually used phone calls to 1,000 people,and then use the results to imply that the other millions and millions of adults in the US have the same views as expressed by those polled.
This poll of law enforcement officers should be far more accurate,since the percentage of officers who participated in this poll is exponentially greater,since 15,000 officers were polled out of 400,000, than those polls trying to use 1,000 citizens out of millions and millions.
But just like any politically based poll,it could be skewed,but is far less likely to be skewed since it targets a much smaller group of people who are active members of the organization running the poll,so I tend to believe the results of this poll more than most politically based polls I've seen.

[toolbox 0]

Right on!

[billvon 2,405]

>I do not believe the results of the polls on US citizens being for more restrictive gun legislation are accurate . . .

>This poll of law enforcement officers should be far more accurate . . . .

That is exactly the reaction I expected from the far right here. Same methodology they used to determine that Romney would win the last election - reject the polls that show us losing and accept only the ones that show what we want to see.

[toolbox 0]

>That is exactly the reaction I expected from the far right here.

...... shows how much you know you tell anyone who knows me that you think I am far right and they will laugh as much as I am laughing as I try to punch this out on the keyboard.
I think the right is as retarded as the left is.
Now if you insinuated that I was in the middle of the road you would be correct.
I lean right or left from center depending on the issues,and tend to be very libertarian.
I believe you should be able to have sex with any other consenting adult,you should be able to use as much of any drugs you want,you should eat as much of anything you want,you should have all the guns you want,you should be able to have early term abortions if you want,birth control should be free, and incentives for not having children should be promoted along with propaganda warning against overpopulation,ect.
If you want to place a loaded gun in your mouth and pull the trigger,then please do so and make more room for the rest of us,but do it before you can breed.
If you want to hook your canopy into the ground then more power to you, but do not harm anyone else in the process.
Do you still think I'm far right?

[rhaig 0]

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That is exactly the reaction I expected from the far right here. Same methodology they used to determine that Romney would win the last election - reject the polls that show us losing and accept only the ones that show what we want to see.

then you'll stop parading around the "90%" number after claiming others are lying?

The article I read that included those results indicated it was slightly over 1000 sample size (1050 I think) and that 84% (+- 4%) of the respondants favored additional background checks. So of course someone somewhere rounded that up to 90%


But don't worry. I wouldn't call you a liar.

--
Rob

[billvon 2,405]

>then you'll stop parading around the "90%" number after claiming others are lying?

Nope. I think the 90% number is supportable, since we've seen that result from at least three separate independent polls* of the general population.

(* - WaPo, Quinnipac and NYT)



>The article I read that included those results indicated it was slightly over 1000 sample
>size (1050 I think) and that 84% (+- 4%) of the respondants favored additional
>background checks. So of course someone somewhere rounded that up to 90%

Up to 85% actually. From the Pew poll:

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Strong majorities of gun owning household members support requiring background checks for private sales at gun shows, standing at 86 percent in the Post-ABC survey and 85 percent in the Pew poll.
=========

[rushmc 18]

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So, when gallup or some other do a poll of a 1000 registered voters, you have the same opinion?

After all, what percentage whould that be?

you're not seeing the difference between random sampling and self selection.

Website polling that lets anyone (registered or worse, anyone) vote will always bias towards people who care about the issue enough to complete the survey. For open polling, you'll see leadership mail its people to 'get out the vote.' End result is whatever count of participants you have - they are not representative of the greater body. To be very specific - a poll that entirely consists of Brady and NRA membership is not the same as the American people.

When Gallop does its polling, it doesn't just call once and give up if no answer. It will try a few times to make contact. They, and polling in general, has had to adapt to the fact that people increasingly don't have home phones, and this tends to be younger people.

In contrast to others, I suspect that polling the membership of the LEO association may be fairly representative of the line officers (no REMFs or elected figures like sheriffs). Polling them is very different than polling Police Chiefs of major cities.

I do see it
But this survey was specifically aimed at certing group

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[rushmc 18]

Quote

Quote

Does being a certified Lean Six Sigma Black Belt mean anything to you?

I know what "Lean" is in terms of engineering. Been Trained.

I know what Six Sigma is (I'm a master black belt in a Fortune 100 company in fact).

Haven't seen the term "Lean Six Sigma" before. But the two philosophies are very related to each other.

It was a three year cert program that combined them

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[billvon 2,405]

>But this survey was specifically aimed at certing group

So a poll of all Americans is aimed at a certain group, but a poll restricted to a website that further restricts its membership to cops is NOT aimed at a certain group? Interesting.

[Kennedy 0]

lean six sigma

Seems like they just repackaged and resold the work of others. Then again, what management consultant or motivational speaker doesn't?

witty subliminal message
Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards.
1*

[wmw999 2,126]

Rush, in the sampling and polling unit, they told you about how to randomize appropriately for the population you're trying to work with. If you're only trying to convince LEO's, this is possibly a dandy poll -- self-selected, but at least within a somewhat relevant population.

But if you're trying to convince the general public, it's no more valid than a poll of dz.com users, or a poll of hospital workers (I've seen those), or a poll of newspaper reporters -- those all reflect those populations, but no one else.

People tend to listen to stuff that they want to believe, or that people like them believe (confirmation bias). Do you think an atheist would believe a poll of Christians about the nature of God? Or do you think that a conservative Christian would believe a poll of liberal Christians on the roles of men and women in families? Probably not.

A poll of self-selected LEO's should be added to the body of knowledge, but it's no more than a single data point. The fact that you inherently trust those people doesn't make it more meaningful for something that's trying to gauge public opinion. Public opinion has to include the people you disagree wiht -- they're also part of the public.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[SkyDekker 1,129]

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They polled thier community
400,000 LEO's
Verified (somehow) active or retired

Yup, and their verification is so good that 5.2% of respondents indicated they are not current or former/retired LEO.

[wmw999 2,126]

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I know what "Lean" is in terms of engineering. Been Trained.

I know what Six Sigma is (I'm a master black belt in a Fortune 100 company in fact).

Haven't seen the term "Lean Six Sigma" before.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[Andy9o8 0]

Dear Toolbox & Regulator: This is now the third thread this month in which you've made yourselves look thilly over this polling issue. It's kind of cute.

[kelpdiver 2]

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But just like any politically based poll,it could be skewed,but is far less likely to be skewed since it targets a much smaller group of people who are active members of the organization running the poll,so I tend to believe the results of this poll more than most politically based polls I've seen.

beliefs can be comforting, but that doesn't make them grounded in reality.

the foundation for statistics is quite strong. It gets tested repeated with every election. Psuedo science like polls on website are not tested because we already know their (lack of) value.

As I noted in the other thread, the problem with the 90% figure is not the sampling, but the question being asked. And that was exposed in the results.

[kallend 1,635]

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Dear Toolbox & Regulator: This is now the third thread this month in which you've made yourselves look thilly over this polling issue. It's kind of cute.

I vote in favor of motherhood and apple pie. What do I win?

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Andy9o8 0]

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Dear Toolbox & Regulator: This is now the third thread this month in which you've made yourselves look thilly over this polling issue. It's kind of cute.

I vote in favor of motherhood and apple pie. What do I win?

http://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium/mom-and-apple-pie-robert-bissett.jpg