Solar is getting too cheap (a nice problem to have)

[billvon 2,400]

The price of solar is dropping so quickly that utilities are starting to drag their feet on new bids, hoping for a lower price. This traditionally results in a bidding war between suppliers, driving the prices even lower - good news for both the environment and ratepayers.

From a website dedicated to power utility news:

============
Austin Energy is being offered to buy solar power from developers at record low prices, leading the utility to ask its oversight arm to slow the acceptance of bid in hopes that waiting a little longer or developing the solar itself can get it an even better deal, the Austin Monitor reports.

Response to the utility's request for 600 MW of solar has yeilded a string of declining bids. The most recent bid of under $40 per MWh (less than $0.04 per kWh) was 20% lower than 2014’s $0.045 per kWh Recurrent Energy contract price for a 150 MW solar project due online this year. It was only 25% of 2008’s $160 per MWh ($0.16 per kWh) bid for the 30 MW Webberville array
============

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-gets-record-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/

[rushmc 18]

billvon

The price of solar is dropping so quickly that utilities are starting to drag their feet on new bids, hoping for a lower price. This traditionally results in a bidding war between suppliers, driving the prices even lower - good news for both the environment and ratepayers.

From a website dedicated to power utility news:

============
Austin Energy is being offered to buy solar power from developers at record low prices, leading the utility to ask its oversight arm to slow the acceptance of bid in hopes that waiting a little longer or developing the solar itself can get it an even better deal, the Austin Monitor reports.

Response to the utility's request for 600 MW of solar has yeilded a string of declining bids. The most recent bid of under $40 per MWh (less than $0.04 per kWh) was 20% lower than 2014’s $0.045 per kWh Recurrent Energy contract price for a 150 MW solar project due online this year. It was only 25% of 2008’s $160 per MWh ($0.16 per kWh) bid for the 30 MW Webberville array
============

http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-gets-record-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/

We are seeing a rapid growith in it here is Iowa
People/companies are working on the tarrifs that can make it work for both the solar providers and the power companies

Right now the solar companies can sell power to others than themselves. That has already been determined

The fight is going to be over whether or not they can use other distribution systems for free. Which is currently the case here

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[Anvilbrother 0]

I tried to hop on some subsidies and get a solar system for my house. was going to cost me like $24k, would not pay for itself for 15 years at current electrical sell back pricing(at max efficiency which it will not maintain through its life). I would also need a new inverter at an estimated $3k about every 9 years, and batteries at an estimated $3k every 5-7 years.

They only estimate lifespan up to 25 years, and during that efficiency goes down to near 80% for most types.

I decided to pass it's cheaper for me to stick with what I have.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[Remster 24]

Anvilbrother

I tried to hop on some subsidies and get a solar system for my house. was going to cost me like $24k, would not pay for itself for 15 years at current electrical sell back pricing(at max efficiency which it will not maintain through its life). I would also need a new inverter at an estimated $3k about every 9 years, and batteries at an estimated $3k every 5-7 years.

They only estimate lifespan up to 25 years, and during that efficiency goes down to near 80% for most types.

I decided to pass it's cheaper for me to stick with what I have.

SolarCity has a lease program. When I ran my numbers, it made more sense to me. We won't save tons of money (we're somewhat energy efficient already) but we will still save 20-25% of our annual electricity bill. Plus, rate increases are fixed, with guaranteed power outputs (with re-reimbursements if not met) and no money down at all.

Message me if you want a referral with a sign on bonus.

Remster

[billvon 2,400]

Quote

I tried to hop on some subsidies and get a solar system for my house. was going to cost me like $24k, would not pay for itself for 15 years at current electrical sell back pricing(at max efficiency which it will not maintain through its life). I would also need a new inverter at an estimated $3k about every 9 years, and batteries at an estimated $3k every 5-7 years.

I wouldn't recommend a battery based system for anyone unless they have unreliable power (as in a blackout a month or something.) They don't contribute anything to energy production and thus don't help you reduce any electrical usage.

[yoink 321]

We're getting solar installed next month in our new house. The number I ran seem to suggest it'll pay itself off in about 5 1/2 years.

I've also been paying close attention to the Tesla battery wall. It'll be interesting to see how long they hold up for as I could see SDG&E not only removing the buy-back policy they have in place, but also charging just for a hookup in future.

[stayhigh 2]

how much power do you use to pay the system off within 5-6 years??

do you have a thousand dollar elec bill every month?

Bernie Sanders for President 2016

[Anvilbrother 0]

billvon

Quote

I tried to hop on some subsidies and get a solar system for my house. was going to cost me like $24k, would not pay for itself for 15 years at current electrical sell back pricing(at max efficiency which it will not maintain through its life). I would also need a new inverter at an estimated $3k about every 9 years, and batteries at an estimated $3k every 5-7 years.

I wouldn't recommend a battery based system for anyone unless they have unreliable power (as in a blackout a month or something.) They don't contribute anything to energy production and thus don't help you reduce any electrical usage.

That's still 15.65 years to pay for itself based off my current useage and cost. You still have to have an inverter. Batteries although is a reoccurring cost is just a side note in a system like that. It adds under 10% to the initial cost.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[yoink 321]

stayhigh

how much power do you use to pay the system off within 5-6 years??

do you have a thousand dollar elec bill every month?

Sorry - typo. Should have been 6-7 years.

Our elec bill is about 240 a month. I work at home and have a fair number of computers running most of the time.
We're getting a 24 panel system providing 6,000W which (with the rebate) came to about $17,000.

I think I worked it out to about 6 1/2 years to pay itself off.

the company we went with also guarantee a certain production over the life of the system. If the system they designed and installed fails to provide the adequate power, they pay any top-up costs.

I also spoke to half a dozen realtors in the area who gave me estimates ranging from $10k to $20k as an increase on the value of the home from having a purchased system installed. As we've just moved into this place I think we'll be here long enough to pay it off and get the value out of it.

[headoverheels 291]

If your cost of electricity in Louisiana is anything like that in Georgia, it would take a long time to break even. I was just visiting my brother in Atlanta, and GA Power rates are about 1/3 what I pay PG&E in northern California.

[Anvilbrother 0]

My summer time max bill is about $144 and that's A/C on 74 degrees. I use about 2000kwh a month and iirc last time I checked it was 6.4 cents per kWh from DEMCO.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[billvon 2,400]

> I use about 2000kwh a month and iirc last time I checked it was 6.4 cents per kWh
>from DEMCO.

OK so 66kwhr/day.

Using those numbers for out here:

0-100% of baseline - 17 cents/kwhr
101-130% of baseline - 20
130-200% of baseline - 38
200%+ of baseline - 40

(Our rates are very high right now because they are having to pay off San Onofre, a nuclear plant that had an unrepairable leak in the heat exchanger.)

Baseline varies from about 10 to 22kwhr/day depending on location. Assuming a mean of 16, that means that everything over 20kwhr/day is going to be billed at about 39 cents/kwhr. So if you put in enough solar to get you down to 20kwhr/day you save $18 a day.

With 5.5 hours of direct sun (average out here) and an efficiency of about 90%, that means a 4kw (STC DC) system, which will cost you about $16K at current prices. So that's a straight payoff time of about 2.4 years without rebates, and without considering the added value of the house.

The payoff time here is very quick both because of the high cost of power and the very reliable sun, as well as the benign climate for solar (they like sunny but not very hot.) That will change depending where you are.

[Anvilbrother 0]

Yeah we get 4.5 prime sun hr/d and cost is cheap. I was really looking forward to sitting outside and watching the proverbial meter run backwards and drink a beer while making money. . When we buy a new house I might see what the costs are and add on a few even if it doesn't pay off just to see the reliability and systems for future use when it does pay off.

I think the solar subsidies in Louisiana are about to end soon they were running radio ads to get it quick before it's over.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

[Coreeece 2]

Up here in Michigan, solar doesn't seem too popular...but I was downstate visiting some old friends and I noticed that a bunch of tree farms from my youth have been converted into solar farms....not sure if that was a good thing or not.

Never was there an answer....not without listening, without seeing - Gilmour

[coozer 0]

Quote

That's still 15.65 years to pay for itself based off my current useage and cost. You still have to have an inverter. Batteries although is a reoccurring cost is just a side note in a system like that. It adds under 10% to the initial cost.

I don't know what sized system you are talking about, but the bigger the system needed, the bigger the battery bank you need for it to keep you running.

I am going off grid, the batteries are the single largest factor in the equation.

Something like the Tesla power-wall might be nice and will bring the price down, but for the minute batteries are twice as much at least per KWH.

[billvon 2,400]

>Batteries although is a reoccurring cost is just a side note in a system like that.

They are sort of a pain in the butt though. They are big and expensive and either full of acid (conventional) or quite flammable (li-ion.) And you have to replace them regularly. I have a 10kwhr pack but that's mostly to run experiments on smart-grid applications.

Nowadays even people who want backup are going to do much better with either a generator or an SMA inverter with the "secure power supply" feature - gives you power even when the grid is out. Then you can get a UPS from Best Buy for $100 for power at night.

[stayhigh 2]

and you do all the maintenance?

Bernie Sanders for President 2016

[yoink 321]

stayhigh

and you do all the maintenance?

I have to clean the panels off occasionally. That's it. What other maintenance are you thinking of?

The inverter will need replacing within 10 years, but the company I'm going with offer a 20 year warranty on the entire system, so when that goes they'll come out and replace it for free. Parts and labor all included.

[yoink 321]

The other thing i should have mentioned is the PACE program. (http://energycenter.org/policy/property-assessed-clean-energy-pace) - it's essentially a loan from the city which gets added to your property tax in yearly installments, so you can get an installed system with basically nothing down, and pay it off over 20 years.

I'm waiting to hear confirmation from him, but my tax guy said he thinks that along with the property tax, the PACE payment will be deductible at the end of the year as well, so the cost might come down that way too.

[chedlin 0]

billvon

I wouldn't recommend a battery based system for anyone unless they have unreliable power (as in a blackout a month or something.) They don't contribute anything to energy production and thus don't help you reduce any electrical usage.

The batteries will help if you don't have net metering (such as in the deregulated areas of Texas). I don't have solar now, but typical setups in my neighborhood allow you to sell your power for $0.04 and buy it for $0.08~0.10.

If you do have net metering (such as in Austin) than you have zero incentive, but other rate payers are subsidizing your solar.

[billvon 2,400]

>The batteries will help if you don't have net metering (such as in the deregulated areas of Texas).

Agreed, but they add a lot to the cost of the system. Without net metering you are just reducing your daytime power use, but for most people you're better off financially reducing your use during the day with a small system than generating, storing it and using it later with a larger battery-based system.

If we ever get true real-time pricing it might tip the balance back towards battery-based systems, since you will be able to make more money by being smart about when you use and sell power.