Does anyone believe media polls?

[riddler 0]

I always shudder when I see the Polls during elections. Everyone knows that the media makes money from selling stories, and it seems like they've figured out that the closer a contest is, the more newspapers and television (et al) they sell.

Regardless of your political affiliations, does it seem odd that nearly every race for key positions is a dead heat?

First it was Hillary and Obama. McCain didn't need to have a close race because there was the dem race (the media seems to push one story at a time).

Now, it's McCain and Obama, neck-and-neck. And they likely will be close for the next three months. I predict Obama will be a few points ahead after the DNC is over, then McCain will be a few points ahead after the RNC is over. Then it will look really favorable for one of them, but as we approach election day, it will suddenly become a dead heat again.

Who's doing the polls, anyway? Well, in the most recent, CNN themselves did the poll, and they immediately followed with a story about how it's now a close race.

Who thinks the media distorts the figures to sell more of their "product"?

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[rushmc 18]

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I always shudder when I see the Polls during elections. Everyone knows that the media makes money from selling stories, and it seems like they've figured out that the closer a contest is, the more newspapers and television (et al) they sell.

Regardless of your political affiliations, does it seem odd that nearly every race for key positions is a dead heat?

First it was Hillary and Obama. McCain didn't need to have a close race because there was the dem race (the media seems to push one story at a time).

Now, it's McCain and Obama, neck-and-neck. And they likely will be close for the next three months. I predict Obama will be a few points ahead after the DNC is over, then McCain will be a few points ahead after the RNC is over. Then it will look really favorable for one of them, but as we approach election day, it will suddenly become a dead heat again.

Who's doing the polls, anyway? Well, in the most recent, CNN themselves did the poll, and they immediately followed with a story about how it's now a close race.

Who thinks the media distorts the figures to sell more of their "product"?

the media uses thier poles to create and lead news. I do feel Gallop and others doing thier own poles are closer to what is real

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[quade 3]

It depends on who is doing the poll and what the subject is.

When one of the major news organizations do a poll, yes, to a certain extent they do it so they can report back the results, but that doesn't mean they skew the poll to get closer than actual results just for the purposes of "higher ratings". For the most part just doesn't work because if other organizations report vastly different results they look foolish.

When a truly independent polling organization does a poll, then I pretty much believe what they say within the margin of error.

When a polling organization is being paid by a lobbying organization or political candidate to do a poll, I look at it with highly skeptical eyes.

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[peregrinerose 0]

Ummm, you're doing a poll to see if people believe in polls? See the irony there?

Do or do not, there is no try -Yoda

[kelpdiver 2]

The last two Presidential elections were dead heats. Why would you be surprised to see it is true again this year? McCain is following a very unpopular President, but Obama is rather inexperienced and black. I think those negatives wash, and we're back to where we started.

And each candidate gets a bump after their convention because they really do get a bump, not because the media conspiractors say it happened.

Another reason for the tightening is that McCain has been running ads non stop this month, while I've seen very few from Obama. Lots of attack ads too. It could well be that the GOP shot its wad just to catch up, and the Democrats can now speed up and pull away in the months that count.

Polls that are suspect are the commercial ones, where the candidate pays for the work to be done. Media driven polls may be inaccurate, but that would be do to modeling errors, not intent. (well, maybe not the ones from Fox) That said, the accompanying story and spin may well be slanted, so you always want to look directly at the polling itself.

[riddler 0]

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the accompanying story and spin may well be slanted

It turns out it's not that hard to slant the polls, either. Pollsters know that with a subtle change in the way they phrase questions will lead more or less people to choose other options.

I have no reason to believe a CNN article that follows a CNN poll. And I wouldn't call that a "conspiracy". It's just something they do to make money. That's not conspiratorial - that's just capitalism. Close races interest people, so you can sell news about close races.

But even the more respected polls, like Gallup, you have to watch the way the questions are phrased. As we know from all the election rhetoric, just one or two mis-spoken words changes the way people view things.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[kelpdiver 2]

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I have no reason to believe a CNN article that follows a CNN poll. And I wouldn't call that a "conspiracy". It's just something they do to make money.

which is just as silly as the tin hatters and the black UN helicoptors.

You believe it's all intentional, devious, when it's mostly inept, or GASP, actually true.

[CanuckInUSA 0]

I suspect the people being polled are the same ones time after time. Not once has a polster ever contacted me. Plus the various media organizations have their own agenda.

I'm still hoping that "None of the Above" will surge ahead in the polls.

Try not to worry about the things you have no control over

[ryoder 1,400]

Ignore the polls; Watch this:

http://www.intrade.com/

"There are only three things of value: younger women, faster airplanes, and bigger crocodiles" - Arthur Jones.

[kelpdiver 2]

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I suspect the people being polled are the same ones time after time. Not once has a polster ever contacted me. Plus the various media organizations have their own agenda.

Do you have a landline that you are you home for and willing to answer?

I only have it for DSL, the ringer is turned off. As discussed in the Has Obama lost it thread, there is a potential for great error due to the cell phone only population.

[Andy9o8 0]

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the media uses thier poles to create and lead news. I do feel Gallop and others doing thier own poles are closer to what is real

It's all about Czechs and balances.

[rushmc 18]

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Quote

the media uses thier poles to create and lead news. I do feel Gallop and others doing thier own poles are closer to what is real

It's all about Czechs and balances.

Yes, isnt it now

"America will never be destroyed from the outside,
if we falter and lose our freedoms,
it will be because we destroyed ourselves."
Abraham Lincoln

[kallend 1,649]

Quote

Quote

the media uses thier poles to create and lead news. I do feel Gallop and others doing thier own poles are closer to what is real

It's all about Czechs and balances.

Hungary? Have some Turkey, it doesn't have too much Greece.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[riddler 0]

And as predicted by me, the latest poll shows Obama leading, but only marginally, now that the DNC is over.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/30/polls-voters-doubt-palins-qualifications-while-obama-expands-lead/

Obama: 49%
McCain: 41%

And I stand by my previous prediction. After the RNC, McCain will lead by a slight number.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[riddler 0]

And two weeks later, as I predicted, now McCain is ahead.

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In national surveys, McCain leads by two points -- 47 to 45 percent, according to CNN's poll of polls released Monday night.

Again, I stand by my previous prediction. For the next few months, one candidate will lead by a solid margin (single-digit, but solid). But my final prediction is right before the election date, it will suddenly be an even race.

Gotta make it a close race. Sells more newsprint.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[shropshire 0]

Where's the option...

People lie to polls

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[kelpdiver 2]

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And two weeks later, as I predicted, now McCain is ahead.

can you predict the end of daylight savings next?

[BDashe 0]

There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.


"Half this game is 90% mental!" Yogi Berra

I believe nothing!

So there I was...

Making friends and playing nice since 1983

[riddler 0]

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can you predict the end of daylight savings next?

Exactly my point. The poll results aren't much different - planned ahead of time, fixed like clockwork. What the people have to say is irrelevant.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[popsjumper 2]

How about this thought?

The media reporters have a vested interest in the outcome of an election. How?

One would assume that the media (let's just say the print media as an example) has a responsiblility to report the news.

We should all realize that simply reporting is NOT the case. They have an agenda to sway public opinion. Why is that? Who sets the tone for the agency's agenda? Why does one label itself "liberal" while others declare "conservative" and so on?

Of course! The managerial leaders! They have political leanings (For any number of reasons. That's a whole other thread.) and the business picks that up either by osmosis or by directive from the leaders. One easy way is to hire/fire according to their political leanings.

So, the boss wants conservative/liberal, we give it that slant. How do we do that? WE SPIN THE SHIT OUT OF NEWS TO PROMOTE THAT AGENDA!


I can't think of even ONE element of any media that reports rather than spins. If you are one of those mindless people who believe and rely on ANY media for accurate information, you're subjecting yourself the being led around by the ring in your nose.

Since Americans are so willing to be led around by the nose, the media can do the leading overtly, right in your face, and not have to worry about a thing.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[riddler 0]

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They have political leanings

That's the fine line that separates media business from media conspiracy. I'm tempted to think that the media cares more about profit than setting an agenda. I think that making every election a close race makes more money for the media. I believe the managers are willing to put aside their political beliefs to make money.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[popsjumper 2]

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I'm tempted to think that the media cares more about profit than setting an agenda. I think that making every election a close race makes more money for the media. I believe the managers are willing to put aside their political beliefs to make money.

That's one way of looking at it, yes.
I tend to think that there's profit to be made in sensationalism. A good tweak of the facts to get the proper slant and a good, eye-grabbing headline go a long way towards good sales.

My reality and yours are quite different.
I think we're all Bozos on this bus.
Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239

[riddler 0]

And, true to what I predicted, one candidate has a comfortable lead going into the election. Obama has led by 3 to 11 points over the past few weeks. This gives everyone a breather, so the media can push other stories for a while.

I stand by my last prediction that it will be a dead heat going into election day. I believe you'll see McCain slowly edge up over the next few days.

Make the race close, get everyone to tune in, sell advertising dollars. Money as usual.

Trapped on the surface of a sphere. XKCD

[crwtom 0]

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Ignore the polls; Watch this:

http://www.intrade.com/

yeah - I was considering getting in right after the GOP convention
when it was obvious the Palin hype was going to turn sour. It
went from about 50:50 right after the convention to 83:17 now.
(My wife is against any gambling though ...)

Cheers, T

*******************************************************************
Fear causes hesitation, and hesitation will cause your worst fears to come true

[caress 0]

Polls are merely a reflection of who is ahead with those who are participating. That is how I feel about that. Media creates hype to sell papers & ratings. I dont put any weight in any of them. It aint over till the fat lady sings, What I wanna know is who won each state, so I know who is commander and chief. All the rest of it is just to get everyone motivated to participate. -Caress

I've learned.... That being kind is more important than being
right.