CIA Predicts EU Collapse

[Gravitymaster 0]

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.

[penniless 0]

Did they say anything about the threat posed by the EU's massive WMD program?

[Gravitymaster 0]

Quote

Did they say anything about the threat posed by the EU's massive WMD program?

As you can see, Europe will not be a threat to anybody in the future, or do you mean the World of Marxist Decline? I think Europe has not learned the economic lessons of the past.

[Kennedy 0]

Is there are source for all that, or is it your summary of the CIA report?

witty subliminal message
Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards.
1*

[Faber 0]

i do agree,if the leaders of EU dosnt stop talking and start make some actions,they will use all the mony on their own hires instread of EU...

I do belive we are too different nations to be abel to live that close.. but thats just me..

i like the idea but not sure it gonna happen in the future

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

[christelsabine 1]

Oh, c'mon Faber,
as long as France and Germany will be the leaders of the EU, it will work, just show a little trust

And as long as the EU is keeping money for own purposes and not spending it for any wars: Our future is safe

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[Faber 0]

i dont think that using mony at wars helping people or raising the living standard will kill the program.

I think the leaders who want too much mony for no work/results will drain the box.
too many dogs to the tabel

but perhaps i should be a german,besides i spell and speak worse german than english

Stay safe
Stefan Faber

[Gravitymaster 0]

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005

Sorry. I started reading this last week and saved it to read later. When I opened the file today, I couldn't remember where I saved it from.

edited to make clicky

[Kennedy 0]

Thanks.

witty subliminal message
Guard your honor, let your reputation fall where it will, and outlast the bastards.
1*

[JohnRich 4]

Quote

And as long as the EU is keeping money for own purposes and not spending it for any wars: Our future is safe

I think that was Europe's attitude in 1939 too.

[christelsabine 1]

Wow!
You remember this?
Let's hear.

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[miked10270 0]

Quote

Quote

And as long as the EU is keeping money for own purposes and not spending it for any wars: Our future is safe

I think that was Europe's attitude in 1939 too.

And I think that even Winston Churchill said "Jaw-Jaw is better than War-War".

In the meantime I'd prefer a system that strove to ensure that no-one is left to starve on the streets. Our education, welfare & healthcare system may seem to be ailing, then again it's been "ailing & unsupportable" since 1945.

Mike.

Taking the piss out of the FrenchAmericans since before it was fashionable.

Prenait la pisse hors du FrançaisCanadiens méridionaux puisqu'avant lui à la mode.

[freakbrother 0]

Quote

Quote

Did they say anything about the threat posed by the EU's massive WMD program?

As you can see, Europe will not be a threat to anybody in the future, or do you mean the World of Marxist Decline? I think Europe has not learned the economic lessons of the past.

I suspect it was a comment on certain previous CIA information ("bad intel") that led the US down the primrose path.

.
.
www.freak-brother.com

[shropshire 0]

Ha! They wish!

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[shropshire 0]

Quote

I think that was Europe's attitude in 1939 too.

And americas unitll late '41?

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[TomAiello 25]

Quote

I think that was Europe's attitude in 1939 too.

I think it would be extremely difficult to characterize an entire continent as having a single attitude.

I think that characterizing Europe in 1939 as having one attitude would be even harder. I doubt very much that, for example, the Germans and Poles had even vaguely similar attitudes.

-- Tom Aiello

[email protected]
SnakeRiverBASE.com

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Quote

I think that was Europe's attitude in 1939 too.

And americas unitll late '41?

How do you figure? All those boats with parts, food, fuel, personnel in '39-'40...who were they... oh yeah! The US Merchant Marine.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Zep 0]

Quote

as long as France and Germany will be the leaders of the EU, it will work, just show a little trust

Wow a German with a sense of humour, I'm

Gone fishing

[shropshire 0]

The people involved did so at great personal danger but they made the choice and thanks to them for doing so - there wasn't a conserted government effort.

That materiel (hardware) wasn't given, it was sold for profit and for which we are still paying thank you very much

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

[christelsabine 1]

Me too,
since you didn't know.

dudeist skydiver # 3105

[mikkey 0]

Quote

Quote

Did they say anything about the threat posed by the EU's massive WMD program?

As you can see, Europe will not be a threat to anybody in the future, or do you mean the World of Marxist Decline? I think Europe has not learned the economic lessons of the past.

Have you ever compared the trade and budget deficit of the US with the EU? Different priorities same economic problem.

---------------------------------------------------------
When people look like ants - pull. When ants look like people - pray.

[feuergnom 22]

normaly i don't reply to this kind of crap, but as there are some true hilarious parts i'll give it a hit and put some things right

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The insert any western state here is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

Quote

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

so finally "we" seem to be doing what most of the s.c. inhabitants want us lazy euro's to do anyway - take care of business

Quote

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, (…).

i wonder how they came to this conclusion - maybe because the u.s. have a good knowledge on industrial espionage?



and as for the cia being a reliable source of information: BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

The universal aptitude for ineptitude makes any human accomplishment an incredible miracle

dudeist skydiver # 666

[Gawain 0]

Quote

Have you ever compared the trade and budget deficit of the US with the EU? Different priorities same economic problem.

Hardly. EU places weird rules on the individual countries that participate in it. So, we'll look at the two "lynch" pins of the EU: France and Germany.

France (CIA World Fact Book): France is in the midst of transition, from a well-to-do modern economy that has featured extensive government ownership and intervention to one that relies more on market mechanisms. The Socialist-led government partially or fully privatized many large companies, banks, and insurers, but the government retains controlling stakes in several leading firms, including Air France, France Telecom, Renault, and Thales, and is dominant in some sectors, particularly power, public transport, and defense industries. The telecommunications sector is gradually being opened to competition. France's leaders remain committed to a capitalism in which they maintain social equity by means of laws, tax policies, and social spending that reduce income disparity and the impact of free markets on public health and welfare. The current government has lowered income taxes and introduced measures to boost employment. The government is focusing on the problems of the high cost of labor and labor market inflexibility resulting from the 35-hour workweek and restrictions on lay-offs. The government is also pushing for pension reforms and simplification of administrative procedures. The tax burden remains one of the highest in Europe (43.8% of GDP in 2003). The current economic slowdown and inflexible budget items have pushed the 2003 deficit to 4% of GDP, above the EU's 3% debt limit. Business investment remains listless because of low rates of capital utilization, sluggish demand, high debt, and the steep cost of capital. ---- They left out France's 9.7% unemployment rate.

Germany: Germany's affluent and technologically powerful economy- the fifth largest national economy in the world - has become one of the slowest growing economies in the entire euro zone, and a quick turnaround is not in the offing in the foreseeable future. Growth in 2001-03 fell short of 1%. The modernization and integration of the eastern German economy continues to be a costly long-term process, with annual transfers from west to east amounting to roughly $70 billion. Germany's ageing population, combined with high unemployment, has pushed social security outlays to a level exceeding contributions from workers. Structural rigidities in the labor market - including strict regulations on laying off workers and the setting of wages on a national basis - have made unemployment a chronic problem. Corporate restructuring and growing capital markets are setting the foundations that could allow Germany to meet the long-term challenges of European economic integration and globalization, particularly if labor market rigidities are further addressed. The government is also starting long-needed structural reforms designed to revitalize the country's economy. In the short run, however, the fall in government revenues and the rise in expenditures have raised the deficit above the EU's 3% debt limit. ---- Not to mention a 10.5% unemployment rate.

The US growth rate, is far greater, has a far more flexible and willing workforce and, not having to rely on an economic union for sustainability will recover from cyclic trade deficits.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Gravitymaster 0]

Quote

Quote

Quote

Did they say anything about the threat posed by the EU's massive WMD program?

As you can see, Europe will not be a threat to anybody in the future, or do you mean the World of Marxist Decline? I think Europe has not learned the economic lessons of the past.

I suspect it was a comment on certain previous CIA information ("bad intel") that led the US down the primrose path.

Oh, no. US Intel has gotten much better the last 4 years.

http://www.pej.org/html/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=1604&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0

[miked10270 0]

Iraq (CIA World Fact Book): They've got WMDs! We're certain! We supplied them! They can fire them within 45 minutes! We've gotta invade & stop them! Well... They might have WMDs... OK. THey haven't, but it was good invasion practice.

Iran (CIA World Fact Book): Right. This is the page. Sorry about Iraq... That's the trouble with alphabetical listings and sticky pages! They've got WMDs. They can fire them within 45 minutes. We've gotta invade and stop them! No... Really... This time!

Israel (CIA World Fact Book): OK guys. we've got all the pages unstuck now. Turns out that Aldrich Ames spilt coffee on the file back in '84! Thing is we NEVER suspected Ames of drinking coffee of all things. Anyway... It turns out that it's Israel that's had the WMDs all along (err... Whoops!). We supplied them, and they can fire them in 45 minutes! But that's actually OK 'cos the largest Israeli city is actually New York... So we're safe!

North Korea (CIA World Fact Book): Now these guys DEFINITELY have WMDs and they can fire them within 45 minutes... So for Christs sake DON'T invade them!!!

Mike.

Taking the piss out of the FrenchAmericans since before it was fashionable.

Prenait la pisse hors du FrançaisCanadiens méridionaux puisqu'avant lui à la mode.