Is this the new "normal" 7-10% unemployment?

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

Not everyone gets lucky in every way.

indeed. But winners make their luck. In this case, those who plan for success are much more likely to find it than those who hang their heads forelornly, presuming in advance that success is impossible.

or....
you can't win if you don't try.

[Fast 0]

Quote

So how about young folks like me?
I mean yeah I came from Iran and I had nothing when I got here...we just had hope that tomorrow was going to be better than today!
And for the most part ti was but...now it is as if the hope has died!

heh, can you pay your bills? Can you eat? Can you afford to have fun now and then? What exactly do you have to complain about?

If you want to move, save up the extra money for a new down payment, buy a second house and let the first foreclose. It's just passing the buck to someone else, but that's what people do these days. 20 years ago, in the same situation, most people would have just accepted that they were stuck and worked hard to get out of the situation.

Your home value on paper only matters if you want to move and there are options. You're stuck with what turned out to be a bad investment, live with it or give up on it and start moving on.

We're all screwed anyways, young people don't understand how this works. It's only going to get orders of magnitude worse as our lives move forward.

~D
Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me.
Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka

[shah269 0]

I live in a supposedly prosperous state of NJ thanks greatly in part to the financial power houses in NYC the feeling with me and many of my mid 30's friends is that the future is truly uncertain. Many of us have large student loans on variable interest rates and income that is either flat or well below what we expected to make even though we have technical degrees.

The older folks seem to be taking this great recession better. I guess life is easy when your mortgage is paid off and are in a secure working environment. However we younger folks are really starting to feel the crunch. And I'm sure many DZ's will be feeling it was well. Last year the local Dz's had a double hit with the very bad weather and a slow economy. But now with the economy almost flat lined I expect to see much less people jumping and maybe more rigs up for sale. $100 a day in jumps is good money people could use to fill up their gas tanks! So I really don't see many fun jumpers making the long drive and then spending the money. And I honestly don't see many people with the $200+ needed for a tandem.

I fear it will not be the best year for skydiving and the same can be said about the future. I have recently obtained my MBA and the more I know the more fearful I get and the more hopeless I feel. I'm not sure "what" if anything will save us. In the early 90's we had the PC revolution where by everyone was buying PC's which helped pick up the economy. I just don't see any new technology that will do the same.

As with the economy the engineering and technology front is now very static with respect to middle class innovation. In all the wars and all the financial messes we have been our saving grace has been our ability to innovate and utilize technology to pull our way out of the hole we found ourselves in. But right now it appears we are without a good idea.
Yes you can "buy" high end technology for your health to prolong your life and a few little high end toys for the house. But none of these truly lift our economy or create jobs. You really can't have a "app economy". That's akin to attempting to only live off of red bull and skittles and then wonder what gives when your muscles atrophy and your bones degrade?
Is there hope? Honestly? I don't see it. Both sides of the isle are firmly bought and paid for by those who stand to make the most money and concentrate that money in the fewest hands possible. I honestly don't see a "cure" coming from the federal government. Especially since the FedGov has been bleeding high end high pay technical jobs since early 2002....

Honestly I just don't know and I don't think the future for my generations is as bright as it was for my step father who is now 70.

Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

[airdvr 198]

I sell boats for a living. Little bowriders all the way to 40' cruisers. It's a real good indicator of consumer confidence when they start laying down $$ for a boat in Ohio where you get to use it about 7 months out of the year (in a good year).

I think the recovery right now is regional. There is all sorts of activity 'fracking' for oil and gas around here. Many overnight millionaires. So we're seeing a resurgence of activity.

As long as your uncle continues to pay people for not working you'll see at least 7%. Want to see a real recovery? If you've been on unemployment for more than 52 weeks in a row I say you should be done.

Please don't dent the planet.

Destinations by Roxanne

[shah269 0]

regional recoveries...i agree.

Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

[billvon 2,416]

>The older folks seem to be taking this great recession better. I guess life
>is easy when your mortgage is paid off and are in a secure working
>environment.

It's also easy when you have the wisdom that comes from living through the last "o my god the economy is collapsing forever" cycle.

>In the early 90's we had the PC revolution where by everyone was buying
>PC's which helped pick up the economy. I just don't see any new
>technology that will do the same.

Other than wireless technology and cloud computing? Private spacecraft? Solid state lighting? Electric vehicles?

>Honestly I just don't know and I don't think the future for my
>generations is as bright as it was for my step father who is now 70.

Let's think about what life was like for your father.

He was born in 1941, likely just before the US entered World War II. That meant he was conceived at the tail end of the worst depression the US has ever seen. 15% unemployment! Which was an increase of 600% from pre-depression numbers. 50% drop in industrial output! Compared to those problems, today's problems are nothing.

Then as he grew up he saw the massive prosperity that the government spending on World War II brought. But that came at a price - deficits. After World War II we had the worst deficit (compared to GDP) we have ever seen. In 1945 our debt to GDP ratio was over 120%. Today, with much of the country screaming over how crippling and unmanageable our debt is, it's 115% of our GDP.

So your father started off his life during the worst economic times the US has ever known, and as a child inherited the worst debt the US has ever known. What would you have given his chances for a good life if you had been around back then?

And opportunities for innovation? Let's see what society thought the future held for your father:

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." IBM, 1943

"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." Popular Science, 1949

"That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The [atom] bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert on explosives." --Admiral William Leahy, 1945

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." Prentice Hall, 1957

"But what is it good for?" --1968 IBM engineer talking about the first microchip.

[shah269 0]

Quote

Other than wireless technology and cloud computing? Private spacecraft? Solid state lighting? Electric vehicles?

All made in China for nothing.
As in next to nothing.
Private space craft? Really? Is that what we are going to base the survivability of the middle class on? Golf cart Toyotas, private space craft and LED lights?

Think back to when the net hit, and how it changed our lives.
Now it's mature, you have world wild connectivity and a truly global market place. So no matter how smart you are, if you live in the US or the EU I can find a guy or gal who is even smarter in China who will do the very same work for 1/5th of your pay.

Want to stay competitive? Are you willing to take 75% pay cut? And still have the same fixed costs?

This is some very scary shit.

Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

[marks2065 0]

Quote

Quote

Other than wireless technology and cloud computing? Private spacecraft? Solid state lighting? Electric vehicles?

All made in China for nothing.
As in next to nothing.
Private space craft? Really? Is that what we are going to base the survivability of the middle class on? Golf cart Toyotas, private space craft and LED lights?

Think back to when the net hit, and how it changed our lives.
Now it's mature, you have world wild connectivity and a truly global market place. So no matter how smart you are, if you live in the US or the EU I can find a guy or gal who is even smarter in China who will do the very same work for 1/5th of your pay.

Want to stay competitive? Are you willing to take 75% pay cut? And still have the same fixed costs?

This is some very scary shit.

Yes it is, that is why the government needs to stop this insane spending and reduce taxes to become competitive with the rest of the world. Will some people suffer? yes, but people have been suffering since Adam & Eve were forced out of the garden of eden. People are going to have to get cut off the government teet and start supporting themselves. It will be a very difficult transition and some will suffe but anything less than that will cause more pain in the long run. China will pass us and do you really want China taking our spot at the top?

[billvon 2,416]

>Private space craft? Really? Is that what we are going to base
>the survivability of the middle class on?

Are those fragile Wright Flyers that could carry one person and fly a few hundred yards really what we based the $200 billion US air travel industry on?

Are those "1.5 ton computers" from 1949 really what we based the dot.com boom on?

Are those "automobiles" that only the rich could afford in 1900 really what we base most of Detroit's economy on?

>Private space craft? Really? Is that what we are going to base the
>survivability of the middle class on? Golf cart Toyotas, private space craft
>and LED lights?

Those things - and other things that you would make even more fun of.

>So no matter how smart you are, if you live in the US or the EU I can find
>a guy or gal who is even smarter in China who will do the very same work
>for 1/5th of your pay.

For now, yes. Once they have SUV's and have to buy $10 a gallon gas to fill them - they'll be demanding a similar salary.

>Want to stay competitive? Are you willing to take 75% pay cut?

Nope. But so far I'm managing to outcompete them.

[SkyDekker 1,133]

Quote

Yes it is, that is why the government needs to stop this insane spending and reduce taxes to become competitive with the rest of the world.

If you want to be competitive in any industry that is labour intensive, you will have to be competitive on the cost side. Meaning significantly lower hourly rates.

[marks2065 0]

Quote

Quote

Yes it is, that is why the government needs to stop this insane spending and reduce taxes to become competitive with the rest of the world.

If you want to be competitive in any industry that is labour intensive, you will have to be competitive on the cost side. Meaning significantly lower hourly rates.

We can make up the pay difference with our ability to mass produce better than most, what we can not do is be hammered on every financial side.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

The older folks seem to be taking this great recession better. I guess life is easy when your mortgage is paid off and are in a secure working environment. However we younger folks are really starting to feel the crunch. And I'm sure many DZ's will be feeling it was well. Last year the local Dz's had a double hit with the very bad weather and a slow economy. But now with the economy almost flat lined I expect to see much less people jumping and maybe more rigs up for sale. $100 a day in jumps is good money people could use to fill up their gas tanks! So I really don't see many fun jumpers making the long drive and then spending the money. And I honestly don't see many people with the $200+ needed for a tandem.

Bill explained it - the older folks have seen this doom before, yet saw better days after. And easy on your self pity party - the 'older' people have kids to put through college, insufficient retirement savings, have age discrimination worries in the workplace, and very doubtfully have their mortgage paid off.

As for the future of skydiving- it will always have the conflict where those most interested (the 20s) have trouble with the costs. But for those who've gotten well situated by their 30s, these costs are no different than owning a motorcycle or playing golf, or skiing at local (driving range) mountains. I don't think it will ever be a big sport, but it certainly will continue. $200 for a once in a lifetime tandem? Easily affordable for people looking to do something special for a birthday or bachelor(ette) party.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

Think back to when the net hit, and how it changed our lives.
Now it's mature, you have world wild connectivity and a truly global market place. So no matter how smart you are, if you live in the US or the EU I can find a guy or gal who is even smarter in China who will do the very same work for 1/5th of your pay.

We've all seen how unsuccessful outsourcing really is. They may be getting 1/5th my pay, but their output is even less. Great for rote work. Terrible for innovation.

And no, the web is not mature. We had the web 1.0 era, the 2.0 era, and now we'll see what happens in the 3.0 period. You keep not hearing it - the combination of cloud computing and smart phones is the Wild West of opportunity. You need to be part of the future or your predictions will become true...for you personally.

[billvon 2,416]

>Yes it is, that is why the government needs to stop this insane spending
>and reduce taxes to become competitive with the rest of the world.

The only way we will become competitive with the rest of the world is to drop our standard of living to match the rest of the world. You have to be willing to make $7,000 a year as a technician - THEN we will become competitive with China. Taxes have almost nothing to do with it.

[wmw999 2,134]

In my 20's I was a recent sociology graduate, working a variety of jobs to maintain. Most of them sucked. I drove a $300 car I fixed myself, had an apartment with a roommate, bought many of my clothes clothes used, and cooked for myself.

This was during the "good old days" of the late 1970's.

Because of those choices, I had enough left over to skydive, get ratings (further subsidizing my skydiving), buy gear, and not rack up debt. And no, I wasn't particularly well paid by 1970's standards.

Just because I wanted something didn't mean I got it. I had friends then, too, who bought that car they wanted, and the stereo, and didn't want roommates. Surprise surprise -- they, too, didn't have enough to subsidize their desired lifestyle.

Things are tougher right now because a lot of people are having to adjust their lifestyles due to economy-induced problems. But, ya know -- if you keep yourself out of debt as much as possible (including car notes), then when things go south a little, well, you don't have a big debt monster to feed. Cutting back isn't all that bad then.

Wendy P.

There is nothing more dangerous than breaking a basic safety rule and getting away with it. It removes fear of the consequences and builds false confidence. (tbrown)

[marks2065 0]

Quote

>Yes it is, that is why the government needs to stop this insane spending
>and reduce taxes to become competitive with the rest of the world.

The only way we will become competitive with the rest of the world is to drop our standard of living to match the rest of the world. You have to be willing to make $7,000 a year as a technician - THEN we will become competitive with China. Taxes have almost nothing to do with it.

Any one thing does not, when you add all of them up they do

[shah269 0]

Quote

We've all seen how unsuccessful outsourcing really is. They may be getting 1/5th my pay, but their output is even less. Great for rote work. Terrible for innovation.

I was in China and Vietnam last year.
And I'm sorry to say this, but they are just as innovative as we are.
And at 1/5th the cost and possibly greater government support....on key issues.....it's scary!

Look let's not piss on each other's shoes and say it's raining. Yeah airplanes work because of wings...ok cool. But a rocket takes how much energy to put what in space? Do you really think that based on basic physics and chemistry that you will ever see a orbital ticket at the same price as a first class ticket from US to Australia?


Not in your lifetime. I assure you! Don't argue with the physics of the universe you will always loose.

See guys, especially older folks, think about it for a second. When our economy hit the skids always something new designed for the middle class came up and saved us. Be it the interstate highway network to the world wide web. We create jobs here in this country via innovation that could not be replicated in other parts of the world.

However we have hit a limit to our science and technology such that we are just making a shaper and sharper point on an existing pencil and China can do it better and faster. And now they are innovating at the same rate as us. And as such does this mean that 10% unemployment is the new "normal" for our society where full time jobs are a thing of the past and we are nothing more than a sea of under paid contractors washing from coast to coast eroding away the middle class till it's nothing more than just a distant dream?

I don't know, I sure hope not. Yet again I don’t see what non replicatable technology will save our collective middle class asses.

Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

However we have hit a limit to our science and technology

no, you have hit a limit...but it's only in your mind.

[StreetScooby 5]

Quote

Is this the new "normal" 7-10% unemployment?

It is if you believe in Keynesian economics.

We are all engines of karma

[billvon 2,416]

>Yeah airplanes work because of wings...ok cool.

And fuel. Lots and lots of fuel.

>But a rocket takes how much energy to put what in space?

I don't think I mentioned the term "rocket." In fact some of those private space vehicles rely on other sorts of engines, like the Virgin spacecraft. It uses wings and jet engines to get the second stage to 70,000 feet.

>Do you really think that based on basic physics and chemistry that you will
>ever see a orbital ticket at the same price as a first class ticket from US to
>Australia?

Yes. Heck, even now they're $200K a piece; we've only got a factor of 25 to go. But it won't look like anything like a Saturn 5 (or even a space shuttle.)

>Don't argue with the physics of the universe you will always loose.

I remember when a Bell Labs engineer told people that you could never get modem speeds over 1200 baud. The physics just didn't allow it.

>However we have hit a limit to our science and technology

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." - Mark Lemon, 1899

>And as such does this mean that 10% unemployment is the new "normal"
>for our society . . .

Only for those who see themselves as no better than anyone else, who decide that they've hit their limit and others can do their jobs just as well as they can.

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

Only for those who see themselves as no better than anyone else, who decide that they've hit their limit and others can do their jobs just as well as they can.

This is an important part to take away- if you want to keep doing the job you've done for the past 10 years without any improvement, you're replaceable and quite expendable. Those days are in fact over in private industry. It may remain true a bit longer for government workers, but the reality of the deficit is going to hit there in time.

[shah269 0]

Well I can't talk much about what I do or who i work for but let me put it this way...don't hold your breath for that next middle class technology that will create the jobs we need in the next 2 years.

Reading Forbs yesterday and they were talking about "full employment" won't happen till 2020. And even then a good portion of the workforce will be transient independent contractors.

I hope they are wrong.

Life through good thoughts, good words, and good deeds is necessary to ensure happiness and to keep chaos at bay.

The only thing that falls from the sky is birdshit and fools!

[billvon 2,416]

>don't hold your breath for that next middle class technology that will
>create the jobs we need in the next 2 years.

"Don't hold your breath?" I'm one of the people trying to develop it!

[DanG 1]

Quote

"Don't hold your breath?" I'm one of the people trying to develop it!

Well then, holding your breath will make it very hard to concentrate on your work. I think it's excellent advice.

- Dan G

[StreetScooby 5]

Quote

"Don't hold your breath?" I'm one of the people trying to develop it!

Can you tell us what it is? I have a pension to fund, and a good stock tip just might do the trick.

We are all engines of karma