Are We Being Lied To About "Peak Oil"?

[Gene03 0]

I've been following this for some time now and all I can say is yes.

Your thoughts?

http://www.freeenergynews.com/Directory/Theory/SustainableOil/index.html

“The only fool bigger than the person who knows it all is the person who argues with him.

Stanislaw Jerzy Lec quotes (Polish writer, poet and satirist 1906-1966)

[CanuckInUSA 0]

At today's production levels there is said to be over 100 years (likely more in the 150 year range) worth of oil in Alberta Canada and Alberta supplies more oil to the USA than Saudi Arabia does. The problem with Alberta's oil is that it is mixed with sand and it is expensive to extract. It's definitely not cheap oil.

Try not to worry about the things you have no control over

[Gene03 0]

Some cut and paste from the website.

Yes, I know it's a 99% BS site selling books.

My conclusion is that there is much about oil (and natural gas) that we have not been told, including how much of the stuff is available, and how it continually develops, even to this day." At the end of the article is a list of sites and articles on peak oil, but the interesting part is a second list of the contrary view -- could oil reserves be virtually unlimited? (by Sepp Hasslberger, NEC; 2004)

Data >In situ Production of Inorganic-Derived Petroleum - Scientists in the US have witnessed the production of methane under the conditions that exist in the Earth's upper mantle for the first time. The experiments demonstrate that hydrocarbons could be formed inside the Earth via simple inorganic reactions -- and not just from the decomposition of living organisms as conventionally assumed -- and might therefore be more plentiful than previously thought. (PhysicsWeb; Sept. 14, 2004)

The link,

http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/20222



Suppose someone claimed that we are NOT running out of petroleum. . . . Or that life on Earth began below the surface, in the dark airless pores of our planet's rocky crust. Or that oil and gas -- so-called "fossil fuels" -- are not the product of biological debris. You might expect to hear statements like these from an author of science fiction. But what if they come from a renowned scientist, someone who has been called "one of the world's most original minds"? In THE DEEP HOT BIOSPHERE, Thomas Gold sets forth truly controversial and astonishing theories: First, he proposes that Earth supports a subterranean organic domain of greater mass and volume than the biosphere -- the total sum of living things -- on its surface. Second, he proposes that the organisms inhabiting this Deep Hot Biosphere are not plants or animals but heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons -- natural gas and petroleum. And third and perhaps most amazingly, he advances the stunning idea that most hydrocarbons on Earth are not "fossil fuels" but part of the primordial "stuff" from which Earth itself was formed some 4.5 billion years ago. The Deep Hot Biosphere may seem difficult to believe at first glance, but its theories are supported by a growing body of evidence, and by the indisputable stature and seriousness Thomas Gold brings to any scientific enterprise. In this book we see a brilliant and boldly original thinker, increasingly a rarity in modern science, as he develops revolutionary conclusions about the fundamental workings of our planet, the origins of life on Earth, the nature of earthquakes, and even the likelihood of life on -- or within -- other planets.

“The only fool bigger than the person who knows it all is the person who argues with him.

Stanislaw Jerzy Lec quotes (Polish writer, poet and satirist 1906-1966)

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Quote

In THE DEEP HOT BIOSPHERE, Thomas Gold sets forth truly controversial and astonishing theories: First, he proposes that Earth supports a subterranean organic domain of greater mass and volume than the biosphere -- the total sum of living things -- on its surface. Second, he proposes that the organisms inhabiting this Deep Hot Biosphere are not plants or animals but heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons -- natural gas and petroleum.

Does he have samples? I didn't think so.

[VTmotoMike08 0]

(Sighs)
Statements like "years of oil left" are so useless! What really matters is how much of that oil can be extracted at a NET ENERGY profit, although I think you understand that. There is no way there could be net energy gained in transporting oil from a moon of saturn, even if some form of hydrocarbon potential fuel is there. As for oil being naturally replenished by abiotic sources... well, I will admit that there is much to still be learned about geology while acknowledging the highly likely possibility that the guy is a crackpot.

As for lies about peak oil, there is a simple way to examine this: look at a few small fields, and extrapolate the findings to global oil. Small fields, and individual countries, have shown peaks in production as predicted by the Hubbert Curve. There is no reason to think that the world as a whole will behave differently, although the scale is much larger and the uncertainity is a bit higher.

Here's a realistic, evidence supported update on peak oil, without conspiracy theories. Some will dismiss it as scare tactics, but its hard to argue with data.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5521#more

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons

Ride bike to work today and save 3 billion HLB's

won't SOMEONE please THINK about the HLB's?

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[Belgian_Draft 0]

Quote

Quote

heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons

Ride bike to work today and save 3 billion HLB's

won't SOMEONE please THINK about the HLB's?

HLB's are like seals...if they weren't meant to be exploited by man, God would have given them shotguns to defend themselves.

HAMMER:
Originally employed as a weapon of war, the hammer nowadays is used as a
kind of divining rod to locate the most expensive parts adjacent the
object we are trying to hit.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Quote

(Sighs)
Statements like "years of oil left" are so useless! What really matters is how much of that oil can be extracted at a NET ENERGY profit, although I think you understand that. There is no way there could be net energy gained in transporting oil from a moon of saturn, even if some form of hydrocarbon potential fuel is there.

Canucks comments included the phrase, "At today's production levels." The oil sands have a known net energy quotient that is subject to improvement with technology. Recent technological improvements have led to early development work on the Saskatchewan oil sands, which have a lower net energy quotient (they are deeper). They are reputed to be larger than Alberta's

[billvon 2,400]

>Are We Being Lied To About "Peak Oil"?

Simple answer - no. There is simply no rational way to believe that we have an infinite amount of easy-to-obtain oil, or that we can pump cheap oil at these rates forever.

Peak oil has been predicted before, specifically in 1956 by Hubbard. He predicted that US oil production will peak and then decline in 1970. He was ridiculed - that is, until US oil production peaked and then started declining in 1971.

Today we face a different sort of peak. In 1971, oil production in the US declined because foreign oil was cheaper. Nowadays we are looking at a world peak, and there will be no "cheaper oil" to fill the gap. There will, however, be other sources of energy - biofuels, solar, wind etc - that can fill some of that gap. All are significantly more expensive than oil is today. That means that oil can go up in price significantly before those other sources kick in and become competitive. At $200 a barrel, you're going to see tar-sand oil extraction, reopening of unproductive wells etc. This will prevent as rapid a drop in oil production as we saw in the US in the 1970's.

Eventually oil will reach a price ($300/barrel?) where people will go with ethanol or SVO or biogas just because it's cheaper than oil. At that point, oil demand will no longer support the price, and oil production will fall off rapidly.

[champu 1]

Quote

...3 billion HLB's

Hey!

Don't you use that term.

That's their term.

[rehmwa 2]

Quote

Quote

...3 billion HLB's

Hey!

Don't you use that term.

That's their term.

hey - A bacteria can, if it wants, be a heat lover or a cold lover. It's really none of my business. I'm just not comfortable with the term "bacteria" - it seems hurtful. They'd rather be called virus - even though that term is already in use.

So I'm stuck.

...
Driving is a one dimensional activity - a monkey can do it - being proud of your driving abilities is like being proud of being able to put on pants

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

>Are We Being Lied To About "Peak Oil"?

Simple answer - no. There is simply no rational way to believe that we have an infinite amount of easy-to-obtain oil, or that we can pump cheap oil at these rates forever.

It's interesting to think or discover that there is some resupply of oil going on. It may well be at a rate much smaller than our demand on the wells in existence, just as we harvest tuna faster than the ocean stock can regenerate.

We should annex Canada though. Fort McMurray is our future. Then we can all have the same government run health care, no more trips across the border for drugs (US), or for quick surgery (Canucks). Think of the time savings. Slight problem with those Frenchie types in Montreal, though.

[billvon 2,400]

> It may well be at a rate much smaller than our demand on the wells in
>existence, just as we harvest tuna faster than the ocean stock can
>regenerate.

Not really true for oil; the time required to turn organic material into oil is on the order of millennia, whereas our demand has ramped in decades. Since tuna reproduce yearly instead of on a geologic timescale, it's a lot easier to harvest tuna without 'running out.'

(The exception there would be the abiogenic theory of oil, which states that it is produced by non-biological i.e. chemical processes, and that these are constantly occurring. This theory has some serious problems though.)

However, that _is_ true for some other forms of fossil fuels e.g. natural gas. Indeed, very short term biological processes (bacterial actions in dumps) can produce methane in weeks rather than millennia. Thus, there could be a sustainable level of natural gas that we could rely on, with new sources coming from our own production of (partly organic) trash.

>We should annex Canada though.

Start with Baffin and Victoria islands. They'd be easier to annex. Then one morning Canadians would wake up and realize "we're surrounded, eh."

[kelpdiver 2]

Quote

Since tuna reproduce yearly instead of on a geologic timescale, it's a lot easier to harvest tuna without 'running out.'

Salmon is biannual, but tuna is much longer - 5-10 year generational cycles. Same problem with abalone, made worse by the fact that they don't move very far.

[Andrewwhyte 1]

Quote

>We should annex Canada though.

Start with Baffin and Victoria islands. They'd be easier to annex. Then one morning Canadians would wake up and realize "we're surrounded, eh."

Hey, I've been to Point Barrow. If the pathetic bleating I heard from all the Texans and Okies is typical you will never get anyone up there in the high Arctic where it actually gets cold.

[lawrocket 3]

I agree with Bill. "Peak oil" is merely a stage in the long-term demand.

We run out of stuff all the time. Some things go extinct - like dodo bird meat. Still other products have been left extinct - often by technology. For example, whale oil was once a precious commodity that had a whole industry, but was replaced by oil from the ground. There was no need for the expensive whale oil when kerosene was cheaper and more readily available.

Whalebone, of course, was also highly useful in a number of products. It was also replaced by other products - including polymers - that were less expensive and worked just as well.

I can see other alternatives becoming more and more viable as petroleum becomes more expensive.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[kelpdiver 2]

unfortunately oil products have been the alternative to a lot of past items. Nylon, most sweat wicking athletic apparel, plastics ...

[lawrocket 3]

True. There may someday be a time when items such as nylon that we today take for granted will be obsolete. I listed whale oil, as an example - a technology that was killed by petroleum before PETA and Greenpeace were even thought of.

I'm sure that billvon is himself working on tchnologies that would make things like single-use alkaline batteries obsolete.

Consider this. Phonographs were the preferred medium for sound recording. Then it went to open-deck tape reels. Then to DAT and now we are nearly fully digitized in audio recording. The magnetic tape replaced the phonograph, but yet the phonograph is itself experiencing a resurgence. Magnetic tapes are almost a thing of the past.

Products will come along to replace petroleum. However, this will happen before petroleum runs out. In that case, petroleum will likely have uses for other things, and be considered as finite as gold.

Considering that we could probably fit all of the gold mined and produced in the world throughout history in an 80x80x80 foot cube, it is amazing what we are able to do with that small amount.

All the platinum in the world would fit in the average house.

Yet, we do quite a bit with both. I can imagine that oil would one day be much like this. We only need to produce a certain amount for specialized uses because most other things are capable of being replaced by newer technologies.

My wife is hotter than your wife.

[Lucky... 0]

Quote

Quote

Quote

heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons

Ride bike to work today and save 3 billion HLB's

won't SOMEONE please THINK about the HLB's?

HLB's are like seals...if they weren't meant to be exploited by man, God would have given them shotguns to defend themselves.

That's humane, I wonder if chomo's have a similar saying in regard to their victims.

[Royd 0]

I say, that if oil is not still being created, below the surface, neither are diamonds, gold, or any other stones, metals or minerals...It's a stagnant world.....Well, except for that climate change thingey.

[kallend 1,623]

Quote

I say, that if oil is not still being created, below the surface, neither are diamonds, gold, or any other stones, metals or minerals...It's a stagnant world.....Well, except for that climate change thingey.

What a silly post.

The creation of oil is not related in any way to the creation of new gold or other metal. Diamonds CAN be created at the temperature and pressure found deep in the Earth (or even in the laboratory).

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Gene03 0]

Quote

Quote

I say, that if oil is not still being created, below the surface, neither are diamonds, gold, or any other stones, metals or minerals...It's a stagnant world.....Well, except for that climate change thingey.

What a silly post.

The creation of oil is not related in any way to the creation of new gold or other metal. Diamonds CAN be created at the temperature and pressure found deep in the Earth (or even in the laboratory).

Egads John,

Are we actually in agreement??

“The only fool bigger than the person who knows it all is the person who argues with him.

Stanislaw Jerzy Lec quotes (Polish writer, poet and satirist 1906-1966)

[Royd 0]

I say, that if oil is not still being created, below the surface, neither are diamonds, gold, or any other stones, metals or minerals...It's a stagnant world.....Well, except for that climate change thingey.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote

What a silly post.

The creation of oil is not related in any way to the creation of new gold or other metal. Diamonds CAN be created at the temperature and pressure found deep in the Earth (or even in the laboratory).

Really?. So you believe that millions of greasy dinosaurs, all died in clusters, the world over, at the same time, and were covered with thousands of feet of rock and soil, so that they never had a chance to deteriorate, on the surface. Or explain how those same clusters of animals ended up a few thousand feet below the floor of the Gulf of Mexico. Or maybe, back in dinosaur days, when an animal died, the bacteria and creatures, which cause deterioration, didn't exist, so they just laid there, and piled up. You can only surmise, how that oil got thousands of feet below the surface.

What is the base of a diamond? What is the base of oil?

[kelpdiver 2]

The era of the dinosaurs was rather long. They didn't all die at the same time.

(Unless you subscribe to the extremely literal reading of the bible where the world is only 6000 years old. Then they were all planted by God at the same time)

[SpeedRacer 1]

Quote

I say, that if oil is not still being created, below the surface, neither are diamonds, gold, or any other stones, metals or minerals...It's a stagnant world.....Well, except for that climate change thingey.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote

What a silly post.

The creation of oil is not related in any way to the creation of new gold or other metal. Diamonds CAN be created at the temperature and pressure found deep in the Earth (or even in the laboratory).

Really?. So you believe that millions of greasy dinosaurs, all died in clusters, the world over, at the same time, and were covered with thousands of feet of rock and soil, so that they never had a chance to deteriorate, on the surface. Or explain how those same clusters of animals ended up a few thousand feet below the floor of the Gulf of Mexico. Or maybe, back in dinosaur days, when an animal died, the bacteria and creatures, which cause deterioration, didn't exist, so they just laid there, and piled up. You can only surmise, how that oil got thousands of feet below the surface.

What is the base of a diamond? What is the base of oil?

I really have no fucking clue what you're getting at here.

Speed Racer
--------------------------------------------------