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Michele

An Observation on Terrorism (AQ)

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Well, after what happened in London today, I was thinking about if the global war on terror is working or not.

I think it is. While we've not yet won, I think we (we in the global sense) have hindered their activities pretty well.

9/11 took roughly 3000 souls.
Bali took roughly 225 souls.
March 11, Madrid, took roughly 150 souls.
London, 7/7, took *(at current count) less than 100 souls.

Innumerable attacks foiled, such as the Shoebomber, the attack on the NY subways, and so on.

It would seem to me that the effectiveness of the attacks are decreasing.

While I am aware that AQ has a pattern of terrorist attacks, tending towards finishing what it starts (i.e. WTC '93), there also seems to be a lessening of their ability to carry out massive attacks which not only take lives, but disrupt the global economy (watch for the markets in Germay, and Europe, to recover in the next few weeks, rather than the months it took for 9/11), and strike terror (alter lifestyles in a significant way: "cowering under the bed," or whatever).

I don't think we're anywhere near "winning"...that's a long way off. But we seem to be well on our way to having the impact of terror become less and less, thus foiling the terrorists' plan.

OTOH, there hasn't been a successful attack on US soil since 9/11 with our packed population using the public transport systems, so I may be completely wrong; it's just an observation I made a bit ago.

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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I think what is slowing us down is all the PC crap. If people and politics would just do what needs to be done it would be over. People would die for sure, but probbaly less that if we do nothing.

Postes r made from an iPad or iPhone. Spelling and gramhair mistakes guaranteed move along,

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>I think we (we in the global sense) have hindered their activities pretty well.

How do you square that statement with the number of terrorist attacks rising steadily since 2000? (see attached) They're getting better at hitting us, even if each attack kills fewer people.

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Well, after what happened in London today, I was thinking about if the global war on terror is working or not.

I think it is.
__________________________________________________

I agree, Michelle!!

After todays attacks I can't imagine anyone believing that the " global war on terror" isn't working!

Blues,
Cliff

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How do you square that statement with the number of terrorist attacks rising steadily since 2000? (see attached) They're getting better at hitting us, even if each attack kills fewer people.


I would be curious to read the accounts of the terrorist attacks they include...as I am addressing most specifically AQ (as stated in my post title). I would also be curious as to see what number of fatalities are included, the type of terrorism, and the instigators of such. Without knowing all of those factors (or even most of them), I can't say anything about the graph attached.

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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I doubt AQ is measuring its success by the number of souls gone. The principle of "terror" is to have people live in a constant state of... terror! Not knowing whether the person next to you at the supermarket is going to blow him/herself up; being afraid of going certain places, etc... In that regard, they're doing a pretty good job at targeting.
It also greatly affects the targeted countries' economies. Many potential tourists will rethink visiting London in the next few days/weeks/months.
I don't think they're down by any means. Unfortunately.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

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as I am addressing most specifically AQ (as stated in my post title).
__________________________________________________

Michelle , can you provide any evidence that Al-Queida exists?

Could they be a Mossad organization?
I mean, we all know that Hamas was created by the Israelis.
Could Al-Queida be the same sort of Mossad front?

Blues,
Cliff

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>I would be curious to read the accounts of the terrorist attacks they include...

That was a summary of _all_ terrorist attacks throughout the world as compiled by the Rand corporation.

>as I am addressing most specifically AQ (as stated in my post title).

Fair enough. Let's look at just Al Qaeda:


1995: 0 attacks 0 dead
1996: 1a 19d
1997: 0a 0d
1998: 1a 224d
1999: 1a 0d
2000: 1a 17d
2001: 1a 2992d
2002: 6a 266d
2003: 6a 113d
2004: 5a 243d

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0884893.html - that contains details on each attack.

I'm thinking things are getting worse, not better.

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but, I think what you see as getting worse, is actually more akin to an extinction burst, where things get worse before they get better. I think it comes down to a matter of perspective.

-the artist formerly known as sinker

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but, I think what you see as getting worse, is actually more akin to an extinction burst, where things get worse before they get better. I think it comes down to a matter of perspective.


Would 9/11 qualify as an "extinction burst"?

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

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I think looking at body count is not a good judge if we are winning the war on terror. You cant expect grandeous attacks all the time from AQ. Look at the London attack. Occured on the day the G8 summited started. I would imagine security in the UK would be pretty stringent during this time, yet they still pulled it off.

Also saying that we havent been attacked (US soil) since 9/11 is also not a good barometer. They found a weakness and exploited it to the max. Remember that 9/11 is 8 years after WTC '93. You cant expect them to do that again. I'm pretty sure that they are studying us right now and looking for another weakness to take advantage off.

Personally I think they are getting more creative and precise in their attacks. To hit the Underground during rush hour on the day the G8 summit starts is pretty well planned out.

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>Does that chart include the IED attacks in Iraq?

No, it specifically does not. Nor do the numbers that I listed in my second post. That's considered a war zone by most researchers, and thus attacks there are not counted as terrorism. If they were, the numbers would be horrendous - almost 2000 US troops and 12000 innocent Iraqis killed by insurgents since 2003. That's 22 people A DAY, and that's using the smallest of the estimates for civilian deaths. Which would mean that terrorism has grown by a factor of 2 since 9/11 if you count bodies alone.

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To those that think the war on terrorism is not effective...

What would be your solution?

Apologize for making them mad and negotiate? What are their demands? Are you prepared to accept them?

Please read this and try to hold on to the belief that we can fix this, if only we had the right diplomats and could convince them we will be nice:

http://www.usdoj.gov/ag/trainingmanual.htm

To eaglenrider: Claiming that Al Qaeda doesn't exist and that Hamas is a creation of Israel is like another recent post requesting proof that Al Qaeda was responsible for the WTC attacks. The Arab world accepts that they exist and are responsible for it, why should we doubt them on this?
People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am

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There have always been conspiracy theories and there always will be. My personal belief is that you could summarily dismiss all the fringe conspiracy theories, and you'd wind up being correct over 98% of the time.

Conspiracy theorists begin with a certain belief, usually a distrust of a certain group (ie, the government, the Jews, white people, scientists, or something more nebulous like The System or The Powers That Be) & create a cosmology around it.

The theories are used to re-enforce their dislike of that group.

Alternatively, they are to re-assure the believers that SOMEONE is in control, even if that SOMEONE is evil.

For example, the 9/11 attacks could have happened because our intelligence agencies were incompetent, didn't pick up on clues, & weren't properly integrated.

The problem with that belief is that it presents the world as a haphazard place where humans are at least partially helpless due to their incompetence.

A conspiracy theory, ie that our big powerful govenrment was secretly behind the attacks, or in cahoots with Massoud launching the attack (take yr pick), at least paints a picture that the Powers That Be are in some sort of control, even if they are evil. Much better than the idea that all these powerful people are sorta floundering around & fucking up sometimes like the rest of us poor slobs.

I've been at the receiving end of conspiracy theories as a scientist. Evidently curing diseases is EASY, but we scientists are holding back on cures for them in order to maintain job security.

There's also the one about how HIV was created by evil American scientists to wipe out Africans. I've tried talking to some of these people, trying to debunk the pseudo-science behind it, but its like trying to argue with a Creationist. Obivously our evil racist society wanted to wipe out blacks, and that belief is good enough for them. Who cares about the scientific facts when you've got your political beliefs to validate.:P

ok off the track, but this is one example, & I just wanted to explain why I believe fringe conspiracy theories exist.
Speed Racer
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ok off the track, but this is one example, & I just wanted to explain why I believe fringe conspiracy theories exist.


I think that's a fairly good explanation of the conspiracy theories and why they are believed.

Jews have been blamed for pretty much everything on this planet, from famines to financial ruin. Likewise, scientists are blamed for many of the world's ills. What the truth is is that neither the jews nor the scientists are to blame for what happens. Sometimes, those who are at the top of the food chain screw the pooch, are caught unaware, are blindsided, and, despite their positions of power, they are simply human beings, and will have reactions similar to ours; lost, confused, angry, conciliatory, et cetera.

One of the things, however, that I believe in most conspiracy theoriyadherents is a singular lack of responsibility, personal or otherwise, which allows someone to take those steps and change things they see as wrong. I've never met a conspiracy theorist who didn't blame everything wrong in their life as someone else's fault, and thus they escape the responsibility for themselves. Furthermore, they scream victim so loudly, and behave in that manner, that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy to some extent...

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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>What would be your solution?

1. Destroy those who attack us.

2. Support our friends. Our allies have made far more Al Qaeda arrests than we have.

3. Stop fighting unneccessary wars. Nothing makes a disgruntled guy into a terrorist like accidentally killing his 2 year old son.

4. Stop passing up chances to kill terrorist leaders to get better reasons for wars.

5. Stop supporting terrorists because they might kill other people we dislike. "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" doesn't work in a world the size of ours.

6. Stop supporting people and countries who support terrorism.

> if only we had the right diplomats and could convince them we will be nice . . .

What the heck are you talking about?

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as I am addressing most specifically AQ (as stated in my post title).
__________________________________________________

Michelle , can you provide any evidence that Al-Queida exists?

Could they be a Mossad organization?
I mean, we all know that Hamas was created by the Israelis.
Could Al-Queida be the same sort of Mossad front?

Blues,
Cliff




I didn't know that? Gee who said this the US intelligence, UPI? I thought Hamas was and is maintained by Iran.

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I know! let's pretend the Muslims are white extremists. Then we would ALL be behind the war and we might even get to call them RACISTS! Oh wouldn't that be fun...something tells me we would never have won WWII with today's society...damn!

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> if only we had the right diplomats and could convince them we will be nice . . .

What the heck are you talking about?



I am talking about those who would not even have invaded Afghanistan:

George Galloway, the British Member of Parliament who's been accused of taking money from Saddam Hussein's regime, says British Prime Minister Tony Blair is to blame for Thursday's attacks in London, insisting Londoners have now "paid the price" for his decisions to invade Iraq and Afghanistan. Galloway says, "The loss of innocent lives ... is precisely the result of a world that has become a less safe and peaceful place in recent years. ... We argued ... that the attacks on Afghanistan and Iraq would increase the threat of terrorist attack in Britain. Tragically ... the government ignored such warnings."

Do you support the action taken in Afghanistan? Many say it was not necessary.
People are sick and tired of being told that ordinary and decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not, and I’m sick and tired of being told that I am

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I'm thinking things are getting worse, not better.


I can see how you would. However, you managed to miss my point.

Despite all the attempts AQ have made, only small attacks have succeeded...only limited loss of life has been incurred (although any loss of life is deplorable, make no mistake) whereas their stated intention is to hit, hit hard, kill as many as possible, and terrorize us. To that end, they are not getting better; they are failing miserably. And I'm damned glad.

Frankly, I'm not too terrified. I'm not worried about the guy next to me in the supermarket, I'm not too concerned about the guy at the post office, and I haven't had too many qualms about the people I've shared an airplane with. And I'm average. I worry more about my friends driving to and from the DZ than I do about a terrorist attack...

When seen from that perspective, they are failing, as I said. They are failing. And I think a whole lot of it has to do with the "war on terror," rather than good diplomacy or financial handouts and 'group therapy.' That's one side of things that I wanted to point out...

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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>only limited loss of life has been incurred

If you are including the war on terror in those numbers, I count about 14,000 dead by the _best_ estimates. Almost five times what we lost on 9/11.

> they are failing miserably.

How many would have to die before they were just failing a little? Breaking even? Would we have to lose half the troops in Iraq?

>Frankly, I'm not too terrified.

That's great. But by those standards they were 'failing miserably' before 9/11 too; not too many people were scared then. So if your point is that you're not scared, and that means the terrorists are losing, then we're in about the same shape we were in on 9/10/2001. And judging by what happened the next day, that's not a such a good shape to be in.

It's good that you feel secure. But US soldiers and innocent people are dying in record numbers from insurgent attacks (or by terrorists if you believe in the US-soldier-as-bullet-sponge theory.)

>And I think a whole lot of it has to do with the "war on terror," rather
>than good diplomacy or financial handouts and 'group therapy.'

Wars are exciting and make for some great flag-waving moments. They make some people feel good about things; it's easy to translate "we won against some insurgents!" to "we're winning the war on terror!" But the facts are that most of the Al Qaeda arrests (and killings) we've made have been through our allies. So if you judge our success by how many we've eliminated, diplomacy has been a far more potent tool than aggression.

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I guess that I can see what you're trying to say ... but I was NOT afraid Before the so called war-on-terror and I'm NOT afraid now, so it made no difference one way or the other (to me)...... and as you say, the number of victims has (thankfully) been low..

But that is a Very West-centric view of the world (not atypical, because that's what we know)

On the other hand, if we bother counting casualities elsewhere, I'm sure that you'd see a different pattern emerge and people in (say) Iraq ARE scared and with very good reason - they are getting killed by BOTH sides!

The largest impact on us are the restraints being applied to us by our own governments! Now, it could be that they're doing that in our collective best interests or it could be that it's the only way that we, in our safe suburban lifes, get to feel ANY effects of their multi-million pound/dollar enterprise.


.

(.)Y(.)
Chivalry is not dead; it only sleeps for want of work to do. - Jerome K Jerome

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Bill, you're very clear as to what I'm talking about. It's not Iraq...even though I know you will try to skewer me for not including it. I'm referring to AQ, their declarations of jihad against us (the west, and specifically the US.).

They are failing miserably in killing us in the west in enough numbers to intimidate us, frighten us, and try to control us by fear. It's just not happening...and I don't think they can, any more. They gave it a good shot on 9/11...but haven't been able to repeat - or even come close to - the effect 9/11 had.

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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On the other hand, if we bother counting casualities elsewhere, I'm sure that you'd see a different pattern emerge and people in (say) Iraq ARE scared and with very good reason - they are getting killed by BOTH sides!


As I said above, I'm not including AQ in Iraq. That's a whole 'nother thread, you know? But yes, I'd have to agree, they're scared...and rightly so.

I went through a time where I was scared of terrorism - in the early and mid 90's. I'm not now; perhaps that's because I realize that death will come knocking whereever I am at the time; I nearly died getting out of the bath a few years ago (fell, thumped my head, and had I fallen the other way, I'd've drowned...). It's a fact of this life; death will come to us all.

As you state, it is rather West centric. And perhaps that's a common failing. But I still think that the war on terror has inhibited OBL and AQ...at least for now, and at least in the manner they've been attacking.

Ciels-
Michele


~Do Angels keep the dreams we seek
While our hearts lie bleeding?~

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