Preparing for a Vietnam

[billvon 2,426]

I think a few of the reasons the Vietnam war failed on so many levels (i.e. we didn't win there, and indeed ended up retreating after public support for it disappeared) is that:

a) it was based on false pretenses (the fake attack on the USS Maddox) - had there been an actual act of aggression, we would have had both more cause and more public support for the war.

b) it was sold as a quick war. The Viet Cong could not stand up to the might of the US military, the strongest in the world (so it was said.)

c) people were promised easy victories. Nixon's "secret plan" to end the war is noticeable here, as were several premature declarations of victory and/or truce.

Given all that, we might want to learn from history on this. It's too late to fix a) (despite some valiant attempts to redefine the war) but it's not too late to fix B and C. If we want to win this war, I think it's critical to stop declaring victory every month and instead start showing people the reality - that it's going to be a long, hard war against an implacable enemy that will result in thousands of dead US soldiers, trillions of dollars spent and hundreds of thousands of dead civilians. Stop with the speeches about how the terrorists are on the run, the insurgency's back is broken, Bin Laden's days are numbered etc. Begin preparing people for the reality of the war now, and there will be less disillusionment when the fatality rates continue to climb and the first civil war (or mass insurrection, or whatever you want to call the next big battle) begins.

One reason we could not win in the Vietnam war is that there was a perception in the US that the government had been lying to the people about what was happening over there; that's one reason the pictures brought back by journalists had such an impact. We should not make the same mistakes here.

Attached is a graph I made showing Iraq injuries/fatalities so far, and another one showing the trend in Vietnam. We shouldn't wait until we hit that peak to tell people what to expect.

[greybeard 0]

YOU JUST NOW FIGURING THIS OUT!

"If you aren't abhorred,
you haven't been paying attention."


RE: First gulf war + second gulf war...............

[kelpdiver 2]

We couldn't win in Vietnam because it wasn't winnable. It was a classic revolution in a colony. Ultimately they win.
I think the majority of Iraq, unlike Vietnam, preferred the outster of Saddam, but the minority is large enough that this part of the analogy is fine.

But the chart is a bit misleading if it intended to suggest that Iraq is ahead of the curve on death tolls in the first couple years. There are many more US troops in Iraq then there were in the early days of Vietnam. And not all that many more to send in later. There isn't a massively larger peak in front of us. It's bad enough already.

[jcd11235 0]

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If we want to win this war, I think it's critical to stop declaring victory every month and instead start showing people the reality - that it's going to be a long, hard war against an implacable enemy that will result in thousands of dead US soldiers, trillions of dollars spent and hundreds of thousands of dead civilians. Stop with the speeches about how the terrorists are on the run, the insurgency's back is broken, Bin Laden's days are numbered etc. Begin preparing people for the reality of the war now, and there will be less disillusionment when the fatality rates continue to climb and the first civil war (or mass insurrection, or whatever you want to call the next big battle) begins.

I don't think the war can be sold to the people on those terms. Many didn't support it when they thought it would be over quickly.

The problem lies in the motives for going over. First, we were invading Iraq only as a last resort, if it was determined that Iraq indeed had nuclear/biological/chemical weapons. Then it was about a regime change, which is laughable, considering we installed the Baath Party in Iraq's government. Now it is about installing democracy. Which is also laughable, considering how Shrub got into the Whitehouse.

The current adminastration took the greatest amount of goodwill from the international community that the U.S. has seen in many, many years, and squandered it being a bully. The war in Iraq is unlikely to have popular support as long as Shrub is in office, because lied to the people in order to go.

Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials!

[billvon 2,426]

>There isn't a massively larger peak in front of us. It's bad enough already.

We keep saying that, but it never turns out to be true. "Mission accomplished." "Major combat operations are over." "The insurgency's back is broken." "Once sovereignty is declared, the terrorists will have lost." Now it's "once we have elections . . ." I don't think we've seen a really bad month yet. 500 dead marines in a month will be bad, and I hope we are preparing people for that.

[greybeard 0]

I wonder what the "all volunteer" enlistment numbers show for third and fourth quarter '04.

They migh be reflective of the popular opinion of recent "developments", (read: disclosures).

[Gawain 0]

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I wonder what the "all volunteer" enlistment numbers show for third and fourth quarter '04.

They migh be reflective of the popular opinion of recent "developments", (read: disclosures).

Recruiters in all branches of service are "making their mission". Only the National Guard is falling short. I can only speak from what I see, the 101st is adding a whole Brigade to its Division at Ft. Campbell, KY. They can't build barracks fast enough and new facilities are being built all over the place. This growth is happening all over the Army.

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[dorbie 0]

That's is fantasy war as it's taught to journalists in political science class. There are many areas where Iraq differs from vietnam and that observation has to be about the least scientific analysis it's possible to come up with. Apart from blatantly begging the question you're grabbing at a few unrelated facts and a comparing statistics of a small policing action to those of a massive invasion and occupation force.

America lost Vietnam because it allowed the enemy to retreat into Laos without pursuing them and made other disasterous decisions, including tollerating overt sedition and fighting with one hand tied behind it's back, and believed that they had taken a blow during the Tet offensive when they'd actually delivered a crushing defeat to the enemy. There was a willingness to sacrifice the lives of young conscripted soldiers on the alter of international etiquette. The only time America prosecuted the war with the right vigor was when they were bombing North Vietnam to the negotiating table and the left still hates Kissinger for that (bombing the enemy, what an outrage!). It's unfortunate the way this has been whitewashed and propagandized for years because most Americans don't have a clue why they lost in Vietnam. As for pretexts and the Maddox, that's irrelevant, Americans knew they were there fighting communism and absolutely no secret was made of this (domino theory anyone) and they were there by the invite of the legitimate government at the time (by any standard then or now), abandoned by France (surprise, surprise).

Iraq started with a massive land invasion followed by a significant occupation. Vietnam started with a small contingent of advisors and snowballed gradually.

The real losers in the Vietnam war were the South Vietnamese who some Americans were all too willing to abandon to communist thugs. I have a vietnamese buddy in America, he's visited relatives back there and he's almost twice the height of the others there thanks to their wonderful economy.

The underlying problem here is people object to killing when they see it on their TV but the quiet suffering and murder of millions is OK as long as it doesn't make the headlines. In some cases war is the lesser of two evils.

There is one interesting and relevant parallel between Vietnam and Iraq. In both cases America had left wing propagandists doing their best to undermine the political will to prosecute the war. The question is will it work again.

[3ringheathen 0]

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Stop with the speeches about how the terrorists are on the run, the insurgency's back is broken, Bin Laden's days are numbered etc. Begin preparing people for the reality of the war now, and there will be less disillusionment when the fatality rates continue to climb and the first civil war (or mass insurrection, or whatever you want to call the next big battle) begins.

Someone's going to have to convey this reality to Bush before his administration will consider conveying it to the people.
-Josh

If you have time to panic, you have time to do something more productive. -Me*
*Ron has accused me of plagiarizing this quote. He attributes it to Douglas Adams.

[slug 1]

Damn Damn Damn

This is making me sick. We've finally gone full circle.

I think correct that I know Bill is correct.

The only thing holding this together is the unoffical draft. But that can't last forever. Bills chart reflects a unlimited source of manpower which isn't the case in this conflict.

IMO after the sucessful elections in january we'll start downsizeing leave some contractors to advisor the iraq military and police and let the iraqi's take over.

The medals awarded to Tenet, Bremmer etc are examples of the reality of the situation we're in and how we'll "win" in Iraq.

Mission accomplished sir.

BTW I think we could have won in VN if the politicians hadn't pulled a Fallujah over and over again. But thats in the past. Now we're importing goods from VN, have a nice monument honoring 50,000 lost lives and unknown wounded, and children who never knew their dad.

R.I.P.

[slug 1]

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I wonder what the "all volunteer" enlistment numbers show for third and fourth quarter '04.

They migh be reflective of the popular opinion of recent "developments", (read: disclosures).

Recruiters in all branches of service are "making their mission". Only the National Guard is falling short. I can only speak from what I see, the 101st is adding a whole Brigade to its Division at Ft. Campbell, KY. They can't build barracks fast enough and new facilities are being built all over the place. This growth is happening all over the Army.

"Making their mission" is another buzzward for 100% execution with zero negative indicators. Just lower the mission requirements to achieve success. Mission accomplished.

I suspect that the new constuction your seeing is the replacement of WW2 infrastucture that's been going on for the last 20 yr's. Capacity stay's the same just more bells and whistles.

R.I.P.

[AggieDave 6]

I've got a friend thats a recruiter in the Army. He stated that the numbers required each month are higher then they've been since the cold war.

Do I have a link, nope, just word of mouth from someone that's there.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[slug 1]

Quote

I've got a friend thats a recruiter in the Army. He stated that the numbers required each month are higher then they've been since the cold war.

Do I have a link, nope, just word of mouth from
someone that's there.

Hi Dave

Don't need no link your words good enough for me

Is you buddy making his quota? Working more hours to achieve it ? Lowering their standards?

R.I.P.

[Zenister 0]

stop making sense bill that isnt your job, your not an elected leader... now shut up, get on the bandwagon and finish coloring in your book......

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[AggieDave 6]

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Is you buddy making his quota? Working more hours to achieve it ?

He's making his quota usually, but he's busting his ass to make it happen. He hasn't been able to come out and jump in a few months due to working 6 days a week, very long days.

He said the standards are still high though.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[Zenister 0]

bah... given the quality of 'recruits' (and they've finished AIT at least, many are senior NCO's being reclassed) i've seen lately, the 'standard' has been lowered....

there used to be a GT requirement they had to meet before i ever met them....

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[AggieDave 6]

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i've seen lately, the 'standard' has been lowered....

Hell if I know. I'm not in the military, just passing on what the SSgt said.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[Zenister 0]

well i'm used to dealing with a different caliber of military professional... if they are recruiting cannon fodder he's likely correct....

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[AggieDave 6]

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if they are recruiting cannon fodder he's likely correct....

Most likely, he's a recruiter going around to high schools, etc.

Last time I talked to the OSO (officially ending my USMC PLC contract due to my knee) he said that they were having a record year...I know they're a little more picky.

Edit: this was a year and a half ago, though.

--"When I die, may I be surrounded by scattered chrome and burning gasoline."

[Gawain 0]

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I wonder what the "all volunteer" enlistment numbers show for third and fourth quarter '04.

They migh be reflective of the popular opinion of recent "developments", (read: disclosures).

Recruiters in all branches of service are "making their mission". Only the National Guard is falling short. I can only speak from what I see, the 101st is adding a whole Brigade to its Division at Ft. Campbell, KY. They can't build barracks fast enough and new facilities are being built all over the place. This growth is happening all over the Army.

"Making their mission" is another buzzward for 100% execution with zero negative indicators. Just lower the mission requirements to achieve success. Mission accomplished.

I suspect that the new constuction your seeing is the replacement of WW2 infrastucture that's been going on for the last 20 yr's. Capacity stay's the same just more bells and whistles.

I'm sorry, but you're incorrect. Prior to this year, the 101st Airborne Division consisted of three major units: the 327th (Bastone Bulldogs), the 502nd and the 187th (Rakkasans). The 4th Brigade (likely to be denoted as the 506th, the same regiment as the "Band of Brothers") is being built from the ground up.

The 25th IN in Hawaii is doing something similar, with new installations being put in place for them at Ft. Lewis and Ft. Benning.

This construction is replacing some older infrastructure, but the majority is new. The old is still being used!

So I try and I scream and I beg and I sigh
Just to prove I'm alive, and it's alright
'Cause tonight there's a way I'll make light of my treacherous life
Make light!

[Zenister 0]

the BDE of the 25th ID at Lewis has been there forever, they moved them to the North Fort and built a new HQ and motor pool (as the old was complete trash) but that doesnt mean they are getting any larger....

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[slug 1]

The old stuff at Ft lewis is mostly gone. The WW2 barracks with the open bays and a commen head. wood frame with asbestos sideing were about gone and replaced with nice new Brick 1-2 3 story barracks 1-2 guy's to a room about 10yr's ago (North Fort).

There's still some old brick building left for Historic reasons on main post but had to be upgraded for fire, earthquake, and stuff.

Family housing has been Upgraded (Bandaid) and some replaced with new.Hopefully once the new stuff is completed the troops in the old stuff will be able to move into the new ones.

Congressional funding moves slow.I suspect what your seeing under constuction was approved 3-5 yr's ago WAG.

R.I.P.

[Casurf1978 0]

I think youre missing one huge factor in this equation: culture. We didn't understand the Vietnamese culture and we dont understand the middle eastern one. To us suicide bombers are insane, yet to some in their culture they are martyrs. Kill an infedel and go straight to heaven where 72 virgins await you. How can we defeat an enemy if we dont understand them? I wonder how many know the difference between a Suni and a Shite, or how important some of their clerics are to them. I forget which one Saddam belongs too, but he prosecuted the other. Dont you think they have a bone to pick for 30 years of being pissed on.

You mentioned something about bombing North Vietnam. Didn't we drop more bombs in Vietnam than we did in WW2. We should've learned from the French in Vietnam, they even told us. Didn't De Gaulle tell Kennedy Vietnam would entrap the USA into a "bottomless military and political swamp". I know many of you cant stand the French, but they did control it from the latter part of the 1800s. Maybe we could've listened and learned from their failure.

[greybeard 0]

I'm a little into my cups, and chomping at the bit say;

I think that every single 'Heartland American', man and women who voted for the 'Cheny/Rumsfeld' ticket should march right down to their local National Guard and pull their gear and weapons and embark for their chosen theater of engagement in earnest support of their profered enlightened idealology.

God speed.

[PhreeZone 15]

My office shares space with the local MEPS. Based on who I run into on my way into the building as they stand around smoking... I honestly have a hard time believing that some of them were able to pass high school. I've talked to some of the guys as they were waiting on the bus to take them to the airport or waiting on their physical. I've honestly had better conversation with a brick wall then some of them. A few of them are really smart and have already stated they want to go for NCO positions or highly technicaly positions, but the others I'm worried about. One of them was super excited since he was just told he'd be getting to shoot a gun in basic training.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

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