Which Democrats Believe Kerry Will Win?

[Dagny 0]

Awww, man. Now why'd you have to go and quote some religious zealot caller from Kenner for? Just so ya know, Kenner isn't some backwoods country area where inbreeding is a local sport. Being from the South, nothing annoys me more than the perception that Southerners hate "blacks" and "faggots" and praise God for making Bush His personal crusader during these Evil Times. Some do, most don't, I'd venture to say after having lived in most of the Southern states. The woman may have a mental disorder for all we know and, even if she was a Yankee, I'd say that it isn't a good representation of the pervasive beliefs of Bush supporters nationwide.

Anyway, I'm a democrat and, for now, I'll be voting Bush. One reason is because I hate that John Edwards is a trial lawyer who has, in part, gotten rich from suing doctors. His stance of opposition on capping damages really concerns me. I am highly uncertain that I will see changes in malpractice costs in my future career or improvements in the healthcare system with the Kerry-Edwards team in office. Of course, the debates are coming up, so we'll see. My vote isn't cast in stone just yet.

As for whoever was challenging a 100:1 bet about Bush being successful in the election, I'll take that bet. If I vote Bush, I'll stand behind my vote.

Take me, I am the drug; take me, I am hallucinogenic.
-Salvador Dali

[pajarito 0]

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My vote isn't cast in stone just yet.

Yeah...but you're leaning in the right direction.

[PhillyKev 0]

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The woman may have a mental disorder

Of course she does. Most backwoods inbreeds do.

[Dagny 0]

Now if a town has a walmart is it still considered backwoods?

Take me, I am the drug; take me, I am hallucinogenic.
-Salvador Dali

[Lindsey 0]

Girl.....the problem with getting upset with the generalization about southerners is that there's such a HUGE part of the population (at least here in Arkansas) that it fits like a glove.... That post had me crying I laughed so hard.

Of course not *everybody* who supports Bush is stupid....

linz

--
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail

[quade 3]

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As for whoever was challenging a 100:1 bet about Bush being successful in the election, I'll take that bet. If I vote Bush, I'll stand behind my vote.

I put up 1 dollar and if Kerry wins you'll pay me 100 dollars? Seriously?

Not many professional gambling establishments (outside the US, because it's illegal inside the US) are giving much higher odds than 6:5. I can find no one that even hints at odds as high as 2:1. Why would you even consider 100:1? That's just nuts!

quade -
The World's Most Boring Skydiver

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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This question is for all of the liberals.

Through your vast research and using your great wisdom, who do you think will win the election. I don't want to hear about how you hope he wins...I want to hear from those who honestly thinks he will win and why.

I seriously doubt any liberal will admit they think he will win. The liberals for the most part know better. They know who will be the president for the next 4 years.

Ok, fine. Admitted. (but I'm Libertarian) What fucked up Ashcroft Approved-Christian Taliban- abomination Pharisee will the GOP drones inflict us after King George the Nitwitted maxes out his time at 1600 Pennsylvania?

[rickjump1 0]

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Girl.....the problem with getting upset with the generalization about southerners is that there's such a HUGE part of the population (at least here in Arkansas) that it fits like a glove.... That post had me crying I laughed so hard.

Of course not *everybody* who supports Bush is stupid....

linz

Hey, don't count me.

Do your part for global warming: ban beans and hold all popcorn farts.

[DrunkMonkey 0]

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So to recap...Keith is the only liberal on these forums who believes his man will win.

Simply amazing. Gotta love the overwhelming faith.

I can sit here and honestly say I believe without a doubt Bush will win. Hands down. No question in my mind. I'm up to speed and knowledgable enough in politics to know this is a gimme.

Don't believe me? Remember this thread and we'll bring it back out after the elections.

Dude--switch to decaf, get laid, go jump, but do something before you explode... All that rage directed towards liberalism cannot be healthy...

[kelpdiver 2]

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Seriously! The thinking is that if Bush wins Bush2000 states, and Kerry wins Gore2000 states, and just flips one medium sized state (say NC) then Kerry wins!!
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Or just *one* swing state that went to Bush in 2000 and Kerry's our man.

Not quite. With the 2000 Census shifting more EC votes towards the south and west, Bush2000 states gained, IIRC, 13 votes. NC at 14 would then have tied it again. Others might fall short. I think it still comes down to Florida in a tight one - winner take all.

[jimbarry 0]

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Seriously! The thinking is that if Bush wins Bush2000 states, and Kerry wins Gore2000 states, and just flips one medium sized state (say NC) then Kerry wins!!
...
Or just *one* swing state that went to Bush in 2000 and Kerry's our man.

Not quite. With the 2000 Census shifting more EC votes towards the south and west, Bush2000 states gained, IIRC, 13 votes. NC at 14 would then have tied it again. Others might fall short. I think it still comes down to Florida in a tight one - winner take all.

Ah, I knew there was some shifting, but didn't know it was that much. Then my general point is that since 2000 was razor-close, and the left seems a heck of a lot more energized this time, just flipping a mid-sized state or so may be all it takes.

And then, imho, if floridians leaning toward kerry don't come out in droves and set all kinds of records in voter turnout this year, they only have themselves to blame.

[Lindsey 0]

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Girl.....the problem with getting upset with the generalization about southerners is that there's such a HUGE part of the population (at least here in Arkansas) that it fits like a glove.... That post had me crying I laughed so hard.

Of course not *everybody* who supports Bush is stupid....

linz

Hey, don't count me.

See....you're a perfect example of a not-stupid person from Arkansas who supports (still hard for me to say) Bush. But if you change your orientation (lol) I'll try to cook a better steak next time

Peace~
linz

--
A conservative is just a liberal who's been mugged. A liberal is just a conservative who's been to jail

[kelpdiver 2]

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Ah, I knew there was some shifting, but didn't know it was that much. Then my general point is that since 2000 was razor-close, and the left seems a heck of a lot more energized this time, just flipping a mid-sized state or so may be all it takes.

And then, imho, if floridians leaning toward kerry don't come out in droves and set all kinds of records in voter turnout this year, they only have themselves to blame.

The left is more energized, but no longer have the incumbency advantage or the strong economy.

Democrats in Florida who don't vote have no reason to bitch about 2000, or this one. Nader supporters again have a hard philosophical decision to make.

[PhreeZone 15]

Something that I was reading that has the RNC scared about Ohio is that recent "Get out the Vote" campaigns have registered a 25% growth from the republicans over the same time as the 2000 campaign, but a 125% growth for the Democrats.

They are still sorting and eliminating al the bogus registrations and duplicates, but its definitally a large increase in numbers of registered voters for the democrats. Also 2 counties have launched investigations after large amounts of false registrations were turned in. It seems in one county there were over 800 false registrations filed in one month alone. Both sides are being accused of trying to stuff the box in that county.

One thing that republicans have going for them is that Ohio has a proposal up this fall that bans same sex marriages and thats got a lot of conservitives charged up and wanting to go to the polls to vote on that issue.

Ohio has enough votes to render FL a mute point.

This race is not over by any measure.

Yesterday is history
And tomorrow is a mystery

Parachutemanuals.com

[Gralala 0]

And as long as they are registered and show up to the polls, they are will be still for Bush or Kerry, not matter how moronic they may sound!

"Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all." -- Helen Keller

[Zenister 0]

i know a number of people in various states who registered to vote for the first time in their lives this year...

they are not fans of Bush.....

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[PhillyKev 0]

Like the tshirt says.

"I bet you'll vote this time, hippy!"

[TypicalFish 0]

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The other thing it tells you is that liberals know they will lose in November.

Maybe it just tells you they think it is a stupid, meaningless question, and really don't feel like wasting the time or energy in answering it or the responses.

Edited for spelling.

Edited again to add:

Oh, and I do think he will win. Probably not for what in my "one vote" opinion are the right reasons, but will win nonetheless.

"I gargle no man's balls..." ussfpa on SOCNET

[TypicalFish 0]

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I'm up to speed and knowledgable enough in politics to know this is a gimme.

You may want to talk to people within his campaign and administration (which, yes, I have), who would have a tendency to disagree with your assessment of it as a "gimme"...

But what do they know.

"I gargle no man's balls..." ussfpa on SOCNET

[sunman 0]

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I can sit here and honestly say I believe without a doubt Bush will win. Hands down. No question in my mind. I'm up to speed and knowledgable enough in politics to know this is a gimme.

Don't believe me? Remember this thread and we'll bring it back out after the elections.

Why don't we just bring it back to the top right now? I believe Kerry will win for the following reasons:

High voter turnout. It looks like voter turnout is very high this year, and that usually favors democrats. There are a lot of people voting this time that did not vote four years ago, and I don't think they are going to be voting for Bush.

Young people and cell phones. There are many more young people voting this year, and young people are less likely to be polled because they are not considered to be likely voters. Also, many of them only have cell phones and cannot be polled.

People are still pissed off about the 2000 election. The people in Florida (mostly minorities) who were turned away from the election booth in 2000 because their names were similar to those of convicted felons are going to be back, and they are going to bring their friends and families with them. These people are not going to be voting for Bush.

My prediction is that most, if not all, of the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida will be clear winners for Kerry.

So there you have it, tuna. I took the bait, so if I'm wrong, as I often am, feel free to gloat away. I'll do the same if I'm right.