YOUR probability of Death

[jtval 0]

your'e assuming that skydiving will result in death.

if it was a fact that skydiving results in death than, yes eventually the H would come up and kill all of us.



there are people who get out of the sport with 1 jump there are some who jump 100's or 1000's of times. How do they fit into the equation?

Is pretty silly to try to apply statistics to the numbers that haven't occured yet.


you can apply the H,T logic to life in general.
everyday we flip a coin....eventually ONE of those days each of us will give up the ghost.

what about the skydivers who were killed in car accidents, suicide, old age, disease etc?

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[PrairieDoug 0]

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your'e assuming that skydiving will result in death.

if it was a fact that skydiving results in death than, yes eventually the H would come up and kill all of us.

there are people who get out of the sport with 1 jump there are some who jump 100's or 1000's of times. How do they fit into the equation?

Huh? All I said was the probability of an accident increases the more you jump, ignoring the benefits of increased currency. That in no way implies that skydiving will necessarily result in death. The probability of a fatal accident each time we jump is so small that indeed people can make many thousands of jumps without dying. It's also possible (though very unlikely) to go in on your first jump. Both of those possibilities are completely consistent with a statistical analysis.

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Is pretty silly to try to apply statistics to the numbers that haven't occured yet.

That's exactly what statistics are good for. "Predicting" the past isn't very enlightening.

Doug

[jtval 0]

statistics is looking at numbers that exist and using THAT number.

back to the original post. (I dont remember exact numbers)

the professor COULD say that in 1988 lets say 30 deaths occurred in 100,000 jumps therefore for 1988 the STATS were equal to one death in every .03 jump. To apply that number across the board and try to figure out the probability of death is futile.


The reason for death, the experience, the number of jumps each person had etc are not involved.


The chances of dying on your next jump does no increase...unless you forget your rig. Nor does it increase. Human error can not be calculate to the species. Perhaps to the individual, but not to the species.

For one person who reads every bit of literature, discusses, practices and plans for emergencies there is another person who goes out and jumps and figures it out as it comes.


It could possibly be that the prepared one lives and the other doesn't....but for ONE example I will refer you to Roger Nelson.

what are the stats of those two jumpers? and how does that equate into this eqaution?

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[Remster 26]

JT: all that is fine and all, but you cannot use that type of explanation to show why that number is not accurate. (PS, your math is wrong JT, its approx. 1 death every 0.0003 jumps)

In Statistical terms, what the OP failed to take into account was that each jump a person makes is not a statistically isolated event. It is affected by that person. As such, you cannot use tarditional statistics to calculate the odds of someone dying in x number of jumps.

You CAN say that as a whole, there is 25% chance that someone will die every 1000 jump in the country. But on the individual, no, you cant.

Remster

[The111 1]

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tarditional statistics

Best typo ever?

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[jtval 0]

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(PS, your math is wrong JT, its approx. 1 death every 0.0003 jumps)

.

Very true, don't know why I moved it 3 spots instead of 5?

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You CAN say that as a whole, there is 25% chance that someone will die every 1000 jump in the country. But on the individual, no, you cant.

I agree, but the post is title YOUR prob of death which means the individual

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[Remster 26]

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tarditional statistics

Best typo ever?

Remster

[bertusgeert 1]

Right, I agree with about 65% of what is said here.
It is a fact that by far the majority of drivers claim that they are an "above average" driver - which is impossible.
What about skydivers? We like to THINK we are safe, but are we REALLY? Just something to think about. Shit happens.

The statistics simply say that, on average this is the average skydiver's prob. of death. You are most likely NOT the average - you are either below it or above it. You decide. Go do 10,000 jumps, and by the statistics, you will be lucky to still be alive.

You prob of death on your next jump for the average skydiver on average is LOWER than your first jump. Your prob of death of doing 2 jumps rather than 1 is HIGHER.

Does your prob of death decrease because you become more experienced? Articles I've read suggests that once students get over their initial training and safety mindset their danger level INCREASES significantly. Then give it time for experience to adjust that danger level, by which time you will be engaging in more risky jump behavior - wingsuits, freeflying, swooping. These all raise your prob of death.

Statistics is fun and so is educating those who needs to be educated

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As jy dom is moet jy bloei!

[jtval 0]

uggg...


I guess youre right we are all doomed.

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[PrairieDoug 0]

JT - I got into this thread simply to respond to Squeak's claim that the "statistical chance of death does not go up the more times you jump." I just wanted to clarify that even if the chances of your dying on any single jump don't change (they are independent events), for any given person the chance of a fatal accident increases the more they jump. That does not mean the probability is the same for everyone or that we can reliably predict the odds for a particular individual. We only know that, for each of us, there is a greater chance of dying if we make 10,000 jumps than if we make 10 jumps.

The above statements are basic statistical truths, not opinions.

Doug

[jtval 0]

Is the same true to driving cars?


I have driven an "assload" of miles and I'm sure I would be closer to death in an auto accident than, too.

I disagree with your statement about being statiscal truths.

there is a turnover in skydiving that makes every jump a new figure.


its like saying there is a death pool and for every jump you make you put a percentage of yout next jump into that pool.

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[bertusgeert 1]

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Is the same true to driving cars?


I have driven an "assload" of miles and I'm sure I would be closer to death in an auto accident than, too.

I disagree with your statement about being statiscal truths.

there is a turnover in skydiving that makes every jump a new figure.


its like saying there is a death pool and for every jump you make you put a percentage of yout next jump into that pool.

It's called 'dependent' or 'independent' events in statistics. EACH jump is INDEPENDENT of whatever happened the previous jump - statistically speaking.

The more you drive, the more chance there is you'll die. No argument about it. The more time you spend standing in the middle of the road, the more chance you'll get it. The more you skydive, the more chance you'll dig a hole. Simple, statistical, truth.

Happy jumping.

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As jy dom is moet jy bloei!

[jtval 0]

Back to your post about H and T's.

Yes, I agree that there are H and T's but not everyone is both.
If you were to compare a skydiver to a coin that would be like saying every skydiver will either live or die on this jump.

the problem is that you are using one coin and hoping to get one outcome.

The stats aren't that simple.

It would be like throwing a thousand different coins and finding the stat for the "tails(death)"


now you would have to use those same coins and track how often they land on tails and how often they don't.

Obviously you would remove the tails.


But the thing is that many new coins are added. LOTS of coins would never land on tails; in the text of skydiving.

If this post were to say the probability of a MALFUNCTION goes up each time I would be willing to agree with more ease. but a Malfunction doesn't = death.

But as you know human interaction can play on the outcome.

If I jump out of a plane I will die 100% of the time.
UNLESS, I do something about it. So, 100% is not a real number anymore.

If I pull my parachute I will live. UNLESS, it does not open

If It does not open I will die, UNLESS I fix it. etc.(lots of Et cetera's)

Each of those is a coin toss each of those toss' happen on every skydive.

Now you have to consider how is each jumper pushing the limits, jumping in unknown territory(not physical location) how current are they, how trained are they, how aware are they etc.

That all plays into the equation.


If you had let's say 150,000 coins and each one of them represented a jumper and you flipped them as randomly as each real jumper jumped I would bet you land on tails more often than real jumper does.

That is all I am saying.

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[The111 1]

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Go do 10,000 jumps, and by the statistics, you will be lucky to still be alive.

The silliest thing I've heard all day.

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[Tink1717 2]

Your professor has bad data. The number of jumps is way low. Off the top of my head, the numbers for 1999 were 28 fatalities for 3.5 million jumps. That gives a rate of 1:115,000. Significantly better than driving.

What is your professor trying to prove? That jumping is dangerous?

Skydivers don't knock on Death's door. They ring the bell and runaway... It really pisses him off.
-The World Famous Tink. (I never heard of you either!!)
AA #2069 ASA#33 POPS#8808 Swooo 1717

[PrairieDoug 0]

I continue following this thread because I think understanding the risks involved in skydiving is essential to making smart choices.

Tink has shown that in 1999 there was 1 fatality for every 115,000 jumps. The rate obviously varies from year to year, but this figure is consistent with calculations I've seen for other years. Using it can help clarify some of the points that have been made in this thread.

Please note - There are all kinds of reasons why the estimates provided below may not apply to any particular individual. The "average" jumper is a statistical creation and we can take actions to improve our odds. However, it's also true that we can't all be above average!

If we accept Tink's calculation, then the average skydiver has a chance of 0.00087% (=1/115,000) of dying each time they jump. As several people have correctly mentioned, the probability of death from a single jump does not change from jump to jump - they are independent events.

However, what really matters is the cumulative probability of death over a period of time. For example, the expected probability of death for an average weekend fun jumper who makes 100 jumps a year is 0.087% (=100/115,000).

The estimated probability of death for someone trying to obtain a D license is 0.435% (=500/115,000). That's about equivalent to 1 fatality for every 225 people who attempt 500 jumps (1/225 = 0.444%).

Now let's consider the exchange between Bertusgeert ("Go do 10,000 jumps, and by the statistics, you will be lucky to still be alive") and The111 ("The silliest thing I've heard all day"). The estimated probability of death from attempting 10,000 skydives would be 8.7% (= 10,000/115,000) or about 1/12.

Whether that represents "lucky to still be alive or not" is a matter of personal judgment.

Doug

[Remster 26]

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EACH jump is INDEPENDENT of whatever happened the previous jump - statistically speaking.

No, its not if you are looking at one person jumping multiple times. The next jump is actually dependent on the previous ones, and on the commun participant.

Remster

[The111 1]

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Now let's consider the exchange between Bertusgeert ("Go do 10,000 jumps, and by the statistics, you will be lucky to still be alive") and The111 ("The silliest thing I've heard all day"). The estimated probability of death from attempting 10,000 skydives would be 8.7% (= 10,000/115,000) or about 1/12.

I am not a coin.

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[bertusgeert 1]

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Your professor has bad data. The number of jumps is way low. Off the top of my head, the numbers for 1999 were 28 fatalities for 3.5 million jumps. That gives a rate of 1:115,000. Significantly better than driving.

What is your professor trying to prove? That jumping is dangerous?

Do you have the source for this data? Where could I find it?

Like I said in the beginning, the data is crazy - I need newer data. BUT - according to the 1988 (bad?) data - you'll be lucky to still be alive after 10,000.

Lastly - how is one jump dependent on the previous? They are without a doubt INDEPENDENT. Doug said it 100% IMO.

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As jy dom is moet jy bloei!

[Squeak 17]

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Lastly - how is one jump dependent on the previous? They are without a doubt INDEPENDENT. Doug said it 100% IMO.

Skills devlopment, complacency, currency

You are not now, nor will you ever be, good enough to not die in this sport (Sparky)
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How's yours doing?

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[grue 1]

My probability of death is 100%. It's just a matter of when and how.

cavete terrae.

[dks13827 3]

when my daughter made a tandem we calculated 1 in 80,000 and she said that sounded okay !!

[zoobrothertom 5]

1987 was somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million jumps in the US alone with 27 fatalities. I did a paper on human error in sport parachuting for a graduate class back then. The fatality number is correct but I can't remember the exact number of jumps.

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[pinkfairy 0]

I think both my probability of death and yours is pretty close to 100%, and that was your question, wasn't it?

Relax, you can die if you mess up, but it will probably not be by bullet.

I'm a BIG, TOUGH BIGWAY FORMATION SKYDIVER! What are you?

[piisfish 136]

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And where did the BASE fatality list go?

google Splatula, you'll find it there

scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM