Skydiving Fatalities

[jclalor 12]

I don't know shit about search engines and such, but why is it when you Google "Dropzone", DZ.COM pops up first with the fourth category showing is "Skydiving Fatalities." this being between "locations" and "gear"

It seems not the best way to present the sport to any one interested in making a first jump.

[JerseyShawn 0]

It makes them aware of how serious to take of the sport.

Why sugar coat it?

[JackC1 0]

Google tends to show you what it thinks you'd like. 3 of the top 4 results for my dropzone search are military surplus dealers, and as it happens I searched for military surplus dealers just the other day. Have you been looking up skydiving fatalities recently? Or maybe just skydiving?

[skinnay 0]

He's referring to the google sitemap navigation which is webmaster controlled.

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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I don't know shit about search engines and such, but why is it when you Google "Dropzone", DZ.COM pops up first with the fourth category showing is "Skydiving Fatalities." this being between "locations" and "gear"

It seems not the best way to present the sport to any one interested in making a first jump.

Seems like a fine idea to me.

Skydiving is dangerous, people die jumping, and it's wise to consider that and take necessary precautions (I have about $1.5M in life insurance and accidental death coverage which does not exclude skydiving).

People who can't accept that they might die jumping (statistically speaking, about 1 in 1000 skydivers die each year and your chances are about 1 in 50 over 20 years in the sport) shouldn't start the sport.

[JohnRich 4]

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He's referring to the google sitemap navigation which is webmaster controlled.

I think he's talking about this image, attached. I don't know what controls that columnar list...

I'm not worried about whuffos finding that, because they're not likely to be searching with the word "dropzone". They'll be looking for "skydiving" or "parachuting" instead. And "fatalities" doesn't come up immediately with those search terms.

[airtwardo 6]

(statistically speaking, about 1 in 1000 skydivers die each year and your chances are about 1 in 50 over 20 years in the sport)


~ I'm not real good with stats, but I don't think that's correct...push it out far enough and your chances are 1 in 1 you will die skydiving.

I always thought you had roughly the same odds every jump.



Or am I not looking at it right?

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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(statistically speaking, about 1 in 1000 skydivers die each year and your chances are about 1 in 50 over 20 years in the sport)

~ I'm not real good with stats, but I don't think that's correct...

N years / 1000 is a close enough approximation for any jumping career barring radical sci-fi story like advances in life extension.

You have a (1000 - 1) / (1000) = .999 probability of surviving one year, so your chances of surviving N years are .999 ^ N and odds of dying 1 - .999 ^ N.

For 20 years your chances of dying are .0198 or 1 in 50.5.

For 50 years the odds are .0488 or 1 in 20.5.

For 100 years the odds are .0952 or 1 in 10.5.

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push it out far enough and your chances are 1 in 1 you will die skydiving.

The approximation ceases to hold as years in sport approaches 1000.

Methuselah would only have a 1 in 1.58 chance of dying after a 1000 year jumping career.

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I always thought you had roughly the same odds every jump.

Yup.

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Or am I not looking at it right?

It's easier the think about your chances of survival since you can multiply them.

You can also think of the combination of independent scenarios for each year except the arithmetic gets messy.

[skyjumpenfool 2]

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For 100 years the odds are .0952 or 1 in 10.5.

Well then, I'm quiting this sport after my 99th year!!
Until then.........

Birdshit & Fools Productions

"Son, only two things fall from the sky."

[Muffie 0]

But for that to actually work aren't you assuming that there are no factors such as experience or equipment choice that affect the outcome?

[jclalor 12]

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(statistically speaking, about 1 in 1000 skydivers die each year and your chances are about 1 in 50 over 20 years in the sport)

~ I'm not real good with stats, but I don't think that's correct...

N years / 1000 is a close enough approximation for any jumping career barring radical sci-fi story like advances in life extension.

You have a (1000 - 1) / (1000) = .999 probability of surviving one year, so your chances of surviving N years are .999 ^ N and odds of dying 1 - .999 ^ N.

For 20 years your chances of dying are .0198 or 1 in 50.5.

For 50 years the odds are .0488 or 1 in 20.5.

For 100 years the odds are .0952 or 1 in 10.5.

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push it out far enough and your chances are 1 in 1 you will die skydiving.

The approximation ceases to hold as years in sport approaches 1000.

Methuselah would only have a 1 in 1.58 chance of dying after a 1000 year jumping career.

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I always thought you had roughly the same odds every jump.

Yup.

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Or am I not looking at it right?

It's easier the think about your chances of survival since you can multiply them.

You can also think of the combination of independent scenarios for each year except the arithmetic gets messy.

I know skydiving is dangerous, I just think it looks bad for the sport to have that category jumping out at you.

I am pretty shitty at stats too, but I wonder what the odds are of during a 6 month period, before I had a 100 jumps, of sitting next to 2 people on the ride up that ended up going in.

[airtwardo 6]

...but I wonder what the odds are of during a 6 month period, before I had a 100 jumps, of sitting next to 2 people on the ride up that ended up going in.

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Don't be put off if I don't sit next to YOU!

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

[DrewEckhardt 0]

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But for that to actually work aren't you assuming that there are no factors such as experience or equipment choice that affect the outcome?

It's statistics. Those are your odds given an average chance of swooping, jumping a small canopy, not being current, only jumping large parachutes sized for classic accuracy, jumping a wingsuit, being on a 4-way team, etc.

You can choose to do things safer, although the community as a whole might not yet be aware of what that means (I know/knew dead people including instructors from before the idea of canopy instruction occurred to us).

That also might not be too exciting. It's a lot harder to kill yourself under big F111 seven cells sized for classic accuracy (about .7 pounds per square foot is ideal, with the average 180 pound guy wanting a 300 square foot canopy like used for students) but most people aren't going to do that.

Similarly fatal canopy collisions are less likely when you're at a 182 DZ with only 3-4 other jumpers on the load instead of a nice turbine DZ dumping 20 people at a time out of an Otter but that's not as much fun.

The big thing to take-away is that there's a non-negligible chance you'll die. Being safer increases your odds but you need to accept the possibility and should plan for the contingency if you have family that depends on you.

[airtwardo 6]

...you need to accept the possibility and should plan for the contingency if you have family that depends on you

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Worth repeating.

~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~

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[BIGUN 1,053]

http://www.google.com/support/webmasters/bin/answer.py?answer=47334

Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard.

[cocheese 0]

To all:

Statistics mean nothing until you become one.

[kallend 1,623]

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(statistically speaking, about 1 in 1000 skydivers die each year and your chances are about 1 in 50 over 20 years in the sport)


~ I'm not real good with stats, but I don't think that's correct...push it out far enough and your chances are 1 in 1 you will die skydiving.

Most likely a Poisson distribution (or a very skewed binomial, which is much the same), so that would not be correct.

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Or am I not looking at it right?

I would agree with that.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[kallend 1,623]

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To all:

Statistics mean nothing until you become one.

A rather silly statement.

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[CloudyHead 0]

its hard to call "average" statistics useful if it depends on such a broad range of factors IMO. technically it IS average, but how to relate the average to ourselves is almost impossible..

[winsor 186]

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To all:

Statistics mean nothing until you become one.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. That is, however, the way to bet.